Winter 2011/2012

[johnholmes]

This may sound controversial, but perhaps there's no link at all between an Indian summer and the following winter?

to sound like a very very old record

no one has ever found any correlation for the weather of any type to corrrelate to the weather of any type 1 month 3 6 or 12 months down the line

[bobbydog]

exactly. one or two weeks of any particular kind of weather in an area the size of the uk, makes absolutely no difference to the overall seasonal weather, 2 to 5 months later, in the whole of europe.

people have tried many times, using many different years of comparison to find a pattern in the weather which they can use to predict it.

it does not work.

think of the yearly weather as a snowflake.

we know it will be a six pointed star with pretty shapes but every one is unique.

didnt i just say that?......

[Turnedoutniceagain]

http://www.netweathe...ction=nwdc;sess= At the very end of the 850pha run you can see the -5c line reaching Shetland for the first time.

But it's long, long way off so I highly expect it not to happen.

Any straw to clutch at is good enough for me

[I remember Atlantic 252]

This may sound controversial, but perhaps there's no link at all between an Indian summer and the following winter?

Thought I saw somewhere on here that an Indian summer will make the seas warmer meaning stronger/heavier convective snow from easterlies? but I think only for Eastern areas, so indian summer helping winter

[Isolated Frost]

Thought I saw somewhere on here that an Indian summer will make the seas warmer meaning stronger/heavier convective snow from easterlies? but I think only for Eastern areas, so indian summer helping winter

That would be me. Warmer sea temperatures likely, and of course this means more convection when uppers glide across - the Irish Sea may also warm, but that is usually very moist and warm anyway.

[summer blizzard]

Thought I saw somewhere on here that an Indian summer will make the seas warmer meaning stronger/heavier convective snow from easterlies? but I think only for Eastern areas, so indian summer helping winter

There are many flaws with this theory..

1) You are assuming that there is a notable increase in sea surface temperatures

2) You are assuming that the first cold spell or two is easterly based so that we can benifit. We could simply get a few straight northerlies producing nothing away northern Scotland but that wipe out the warm anomolies.

[Summer Sun]

Any straw to clutch at is good enough for me

Don't get your hopes up, GFS has brought the high pressure back with the low pressure staying in Greenland out the way

[summer blizzard]

I've also been thinking about long range forecasting and i am wondering whether we may be going about this the wrong way. In the USA for instance the seasonal forecast is generally for the USA as a whole with regions picked out as the likely wet/dry areas or cold/warm, in this sence i wonder whether we may have more success in looking at Europe as a whole (given that we are only seperated by about 12 miles of water) and looking in the broader fashion as the UK is unlikely to be cold when the rest of northern and western Europe is warm.

Don't get your hopes up, GFS has brought the high pressure back with the low pressure staying in Greenland out the way

Thats a low and all the way out at day 16.

[Summer Sun]

And to please the cold winter fan's even more Positive Weather Solutions are now going for a mild winter for some with limited snowfall away from the North and East,

These are the latest long term projections produced by the PWS System for the UK and Eire.

These projections are for 'general expected theme' only and should not be considered as anything further than conjecture by the PWS System, as the usual formula for seasonal forecasting is not being used because of the lack of current 2011 data which is incorporated into the equation nearer the season.

December 2011

UK

North-East/ South-West Split has now completely lost its shape. Cold with a limited threat of snow to the north and east possibly late month. Milder to the south and west with rain/sleet at lower levels, possible temporary snow on higher ground. Average precipitation, average temperatures.

White Christmas: 36%

January 2012

UK

North-East/South-West Split also lost its shape. Cold with threat of snow to the north and east. Milder to the south and west with rain/sleet at lower levels, snow on higher ground. South East showing a potentially dry month. Average precipitation, average temperatures.

February 2012

UK

North and East holding on to the cold with the threat of further snow, possibly quite noticeable in accumulation but even this now fading. South and West seeing limited wintry conditions. Average precipitation, average temperatures.

March 2012

UK

Winter shows little sign of holding any ground anywhere. Average precipitation, average temperatures.

Emma Pearson

Assistant Weather Forecaster

Friday September 23rd 2011

http://www.positivew...-Long-Range.php

Edited September 24, 2011 by Gavin D

[ZONE 51]

That would be me. Warmer sea temperatures likely, and of course this means more convection when uppers glide across - the Irish Sea may also warm, but that is usually very moist and warm anyway.

The longer we get a sustained ne/e flow of very cold air, we can develop troughs/features within that period, and if seas around the coast and the thames is warmer then setting up streamers would be enhanced to give us some massive snowfall. im not saying we cant get heavy falls from very cold seas either because then the ocean is colder and if the land/air is warmer but cold enough layers for snow then we get the otherway round to produce temperature difference type snowfall?

[ZONE 51]

A preview of my LRF

kept simple at this point! - this is in general for all areas, at 75% chance on the temperatures-with

25% allowing small variations in widespread temperatures due to cloud amounts

december - high pressure, below average temperatures, mostly dry, snow showers, north-northeastly flow, possible deep freeze.

now at this stage i am not going to mention january as i am not sure enough of this just yet, although i expect a very cold start.

I expect a quite atlantic or at least blocked/door shut by late november and december.

Edited September 25, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[EML Network]

Mixed signals, from almost every source I'm reading, talk of a prolonged Indian summer, extending well into October, but equally talk, of a quick turn around, with an indian summer, followed by an early blast of winter.

Seems that not even the MET O can make their mind up, with their 16-30 day outlook, CFS is all over the place, the only charts that remain consistent is the CFS Pressure anomoly's , with HP Dominating, over winter, and positioned to our West or SW.

La Nina looks to level out somewhat as we go into winter, leaving us in a mild La Nina.

I think that the end of October is where the limit to anyones forecast can be at this time, beyond that I don't think anyone really knows what is going to happen.

[A Winter's Tale]

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

Update from James Madden.

If your looking for the best of the snow and cold well head to the North and East between November and December as his forecast has great emphasis of winter weather in the north and east.

[Harry444]

And to please the cold winter fan's even more Positive Weather Solutions are now going for a mild winter for some with limited snowfall away from the North and East,

These are the latest long term projections produced by the PWS System for the UK and Eire.

These projections are for 'general expected theme' only and should not be considered as anything further than conjecture by the PWS System, as the usual formula for seasonal forecasting is not being used because of the lack of current 2011 data which is incorporated into the equation nearer the season.

December 2011

UK

North-East/ South-West Split has now completely lost its shape. Cold with a limited threat of snow to the north and east possibly late month. Milder to the south and west with rain/sleet at lower levels, possible temporary snow on higher ground. Average precipitation, average temperatures.

White Christmas: 36%

January 2012

UK

North-East/South-West Split also lost its shape. Cold with threat of snow to the north and east. Milder to the south and west with rain/sleet at lower levels, snow on higher ground. South East showing a potentially dry month. Average precipitation, average temperatures.

February 2012

UK

North and East holding on to the cold with the threat of further snow, possibly quite noticeable in accumulation but even this now fading. South and West seeing limited wintry conditions. Average precipitation, average temperatures.

March 2012

UK

Winter shows little sign of holding any ground anywhere. Average precipitation, average temperatures.

Emma Pearson

Assistant Weather Forecaster

Friday September 23rd 2011

http://www.positivew...-Long-Range.php

Really hating your thinking at the moment. I see absolutely no direct mention of 'Mild' in that forecast, yet you say at the beginning 'PWS are going for Mild'. Doesn't make sense, your twisting their words

[karyo]

La Nina looks to level out somewhat as we go into winter, leaving us in a mild La Nina.

.

Do you have the latest La Nina forecast?

Karyo

[loafer]

http://www.exactawea...e_Forecast.html

Update from James Madden.

If your looking for the best of the snow and cold well head to the North and East between November and December as his forecast has great emphasis of winter weather in the north and east.

Not sure where you got that from?

Winter 2011-12 Update

As in my last update on the 2nd September 2011. I expect the most frequent and heavy snowfalls to occur across many parts of the UK during NOVEMBER, DECEMBER, and JANUARY at present. I initially expect frequent and significant snowfalls across many northern regions throughout this winter. Any earlier snowfall is likely to be more confined to northern and western parts of the UK, although large scale low pressure systems also offer the potential for significant snowfalls to many parts of the UK.

I also expect NOVEMBER, DECEMBER, JANUARY, and FEBRUARY to feature largely below-average temperatures across many parts of the UK, it is likely that temperature and snowfall records will be broken within this defined time frame. I initially expect temperatures to really struggle across many northern regions, including Scotland (Western Scotland in particular), Ireland (Northern Ireland in particular), North West England, and parts of Wales.

Future updates will follow accordingly and become more location specific as we head into and progress through winter.

Our initial summer and winter 2011 forecast for this year was originally published on Exacta Weather in January of this year, before any other forecaster worldwide. It is also available to view with an official YouTube date stamp from the 4th February 2011 below.

Edited September 25, 2011 by loafer

[johnholmes]

Do you have the latest La Nina forecast?

Karyo

Google the NASA/ NOAA site for AO, NAO, PNA, MJO etc

[A Winter's Tale]

A Winter's Tale Forecast:

October:

1. To start off very warm and sunny.

2. Brief NWly bringing slightly cooler conditions.

3. Widespread cloud cover under High pressure - average temps

4. Another northerly attempt - cool in the North.

5. Rise in temperatures again.

6. More potent northerly wind with some frosts.

7. Atlantic front followed by clear, calm, chilly conditions.

November:

1. Calm, Cool and slightly showery start.

2. Atlantic awakens with some sunnier and cooler interludes between fronts.

3. Cold spell mid month with first snow.

4. Return of atlantic fronts.

December:

1. Frosty, sunny, foggy start.

2. Sunnier and colder with light snow showers in far north.

3. Easterly brings snowier and colder conditions.

4. Consistenly cold and snowy conditions aswell as sunshine.

January:

1. Cold and snow continues.

2. Still freezing but less snowy.

3. Frontal snowfalls in the south.

4. Milder conditions before mid month.

5. Atlantic resumes.

6. Sunny with frosty nights.

7. Cold spells amongst both settled periods and active atlantic.

Febuary:

1. Very cold start with some distruptive snowfall in the south and east.

2. Sunny and chilly.

3. Occasional cold spell.

4. Warming up.

[bobbydog]

Do you have the latest La Nina forecast?

Karyo

heres a link to all the info you need

http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/lanina.html

[Paceyboy]

So then, according to this link: http://meteora.ucsd....o/pictures.html

we are in for near neutral ENSO conditions, with a weak La Nina looking likely.

Perhaps this is good news for a cold winter?

Why is the CFS predicting a La Nina of -1 or stronger, are the members of this forum in current belief that this is unlikely and the CFS is going OTT with a moderate La Nina?

The build up to this winter season and through the summer so far shows neutral ENSO conditions, when this time last year we were already in La Nina territory (weak, trending moderate). The lag time effect of which turned January 2011 average and Feb 2011 above average temp wise.

Navigate to bottom of chart to read 2010 ENSO values : http://www.cpc.ncep....ensoyears.shtml

People believe that this was the reason for out severe 'short winter' which really came at the end of november to Christmas then faded away, rather than extending through the rest of the months.

With conditions neutral at present, unlike La Nina conditions this time last year, and the forecast for the continuation of near-neutral enso conditions until at least late Dec 11/early Jan 12, this can only be good news for cold in my opinion.

Edited September 26, 2011 by Paceyboy

[Staffordshire]

I think after this warm spell I will start to get in winter mood, didn't really get any decent falls here last year apart from 22nd December but I remember around 25th/26th there was a winter storm forecast for 1st December, everyone was really excited but then around the 28th it disapeered, a foot could of been easily acheived accopanied with strong winds! oh well there's always this year

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I think after this warm spell I will start to get in winter mood, didn't really get any decent falls here last year apart from 22nd December but I remember around 25th/26th there was a winter storm forecast for 1st December, everyone was really excited but then around the 28th it disapeered, a foot could of been easily acheived accopanied with strong winds! oh well there's always this year

I remember that, was always in FI on the models, infact not even full model agreement on the 'superlow' instead we got convective snow from the east, and I still think did reasonably well

remember 19th nov 1996? that was a 'superlow' needs to be a perfect hit, or there would be a mild sector, or missing comple

0ur best chance at snow from a superlow is, it needs to track across worcestershire then to northampton kind of area, any further north, rain or sleet, any further south, stay dry

Edited September 26, 2011 by snow? norfolk n chance

[Thundery wintry showers]

I remember that storm that kept showing on the GFS in particular, but I maintain that it would probably have disappointed a lot more people than the actual outcome did. The system was always going to wrap a significant amount of warmer air into its circulation, and with just one or two exceptions, the GFS runs showed distinctly marginal temperatures (quite similar to the temperatures associated with the "easterly" snowfall of the 9th/10th January 2010, when most places had a fair amount of wet snow which thawed some of the lying snow already on the ground).

I recall the infamous slogan "greater marginality equals greater reward", but the reality is that it only means greater reward for the few, while the many get underwhelmed by the ratio of snowfall to accumulations.

[Eugene]

I think we are in for a very dry winter or a very wet very mild winter, it seems weather patterns have reverted back to warm like in 88/89.

Always a chance of a dry and cold winter but for real cold HP might be too stuck to our southeast over southern france with similar patterns to this upcoming week with potential for max date records to be smashed in places.

Edited September 26, 2011 by Eugene

[Staffordshire]

I didn't get to much then, 8cm I recall. But yeah always FL, got a good felling this year

I remember that, was always in FI on the models, infact not even full model agreement on the 'superlow' instead we got convective snow from the east, and I still think did reasonably well

remember 19th nov 1996? that was a 'superlow' needs to be a perfect hit, or there would be a mild sector, or missing completely