Winter 2011/2012

[cyclonic happiness]

I have never seen bftp back up anything he says with science, links, charts etc. I don't think he actually understands the science of it and has built up a reputation by telling people what they want to hear and remembering key terminology from googel articles.

I could be wring bftp bit now is the chance to show us all your not all talk and you can back things up with science??

Well see, if you don't your reputation will take a hit

Bit vulgar to single one person out in a forum?

We all have opinions and they are all valid.

I quite often post my comments about weather and climate without the attached science and in depth knowlege that some other posters have (the term 'senior forum members' gets on my nerves.

We can all add whatever we like to the forum, it's when someone turns out to be right that someone else always starts going on about 'science' and 'evidence'.

The world doesn't rely on either to keep turning.

[Radiating Dendrite]

I have never seen bftp back up anything he says with science, links, charts etc. I don't think he actually understands the science of it and has built up a reputation by telling people what they want to hear and remembering key terminology from googel articles.

I could be wring bftp bit now is the chance to show us all your not all talk and you can back things up with science??

Well see, if you don't your reputation will take a hit

I think having a go at BFTP when some of what you have posted is not even proper English ("Googel", "Wring", "Bit now is the chance") is a bit rich.

BFTP does back up a lot of his views with science and I suggest you read some of his long range forecasts in a bit more depth.

[P-M]

I would just like to clarify something. I was talking about the title thread being Winter2011/2012. Talking about when it starts even if thats October 2011 is fine, but all i was trying to say is that remembering what it was like in october 2008 etc etc is NOT about this winter or current prospects of wintry weather! That's all I was saying. Now if we get a wintry blast in October 2011 then that is worth discussing in this thread.

As for BFTP I have always found his posts informative and interesting and respect his opinion. Everyone is entitled to discuss their view point and his is usually very proffessional IMHO.

Edited September 22, 2011 by Paul-Michael

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Talk about deja-vu.

[bobbydog]

sorry to go 'off topic' but has anyone got any thoughts on how winter might turn out?.......

[Summer Sun]

sorry to go 'off topic' but has anyone got any thoughts on how winter might turn out?.......

The honest truth is NO one knows for sure, despite what you see in the media ect, it's too early to make a prediction, by mid to late October people should be able to make better predications.

[bobbydog]

The honest truth is NO one knows for sure, despite what you see in the media ect, it's too early to make a prediction, by mid to late October people should be able to make better predications.

thanks for the reply gavin, however, i am already aware of what you said, i was just being sarcastic towards the previous posts

[Walsall Wood Snow]

People on here have been talking about cold and snow in October, which is pretty ironic considering that models are predicting a very warm spell of weather coming up. However i've heard others mention that cold winters are often preceded by warm settled (or at least partly) October's. I think some good examples of this are perhaps 1962, early 1985 and 1995 (might not be right on these years).

[bobbydog]

well the Meto don't see any snow for october as yet:

UK Outlook for Thursday 6 Oct 2011 to Thursday 20 Oct 2011:

Temperatures are expected to fall back to nearer normal for the time of year across much of the UK by day, dropping below normal at night, especially across the Midlands and southeast, leading to an increased incidence of overnight frosts. The cooler conditions at night will be mitigated by day in some parts by sunnier than normal weather, with both the far south and far north of the country favoured to see above normal amounts of sunshine, with nearer normal sunshine hours elsewhere. Rainfall amounts are correspondingly likely to be a little below average in most areas, especially in the west.

that says settled, fine and frosty by night.

Edited September 22, 2011 by bobbydog

[Snowstorm1]

that says settled, fine and frosty by night.

That is perfect October weather! Me as a massive snow lover even expects snow from November onwards

[summer blizzard]

People on here have been talking about cold and snow in October, which is pretty ironic considering that models are predicting a very warm spell of weather coming up. However i've heard others mention that cold winters are often preceded by warm settled (or at least partly) October's. I think some good examples of this are perhaps 1962, early 1985 and 1995 (might not be right on these years).

This comes up every year and in regards to the CET we find that it is 50/50, i.e. no link.

That said, there is a negative corelation of 0.7 between the October NAO value and the winter NAO value overall. Hence, if we see a +NAO October then the winter has a 0.7 chance of being a -NAO winter. That said you can also get winters which tell the link to get stuffed, October 2009 was the most -NAO October on record however instead of flipping positive, the pattern just repeated through winter (most -AO/NAO winter on record).

That is perfect October weather! Me as a massive snow lover even expects snow from November onwards

In England the statistical likelyhood of lowland snow is actually 1 in 3, so fairly possible. At my location i have seen November snow in 2004, 2005, 2009 and 2010. Aaron may be able to remember a few more years.

Edited September 22, 2011 by summer blizzard

[bobbydog]

That is perfect October weather! Me as a massive snow lover even expects snow from November onwards

and so it should be. cold frosty nights by the end of october, halloween,start of november, clear cold bonfire night. then the change to less settled, cold conditions. grey leaden skies, biting winds, the feeling of the coming bitter winter...

then the north wind shall blow.....

[A Winter's Tale]

well the Meto don't see any snow for october as yet:

UK Outlook for Thursday 6 Oct 2011 to Thursday 20 Oct 2011:

Temperatures are expected to fall back to nearer normal for the time of year across much of the UK by day, dropping below normal at night, especially across the Midlands and southeast, leading to an increased incidence of overnight frosts. The cooler conditions at night will be mitigated by day in some parts by sunnier than normal weather, with both the far south and far north of the country favoured to see above normal amounts of sunshine, with nearer normal sunshine hours elsewhere. Rainfall amounts are correspondingly likely to be a little below average in most areas, especially in the west.

that says settled, fine and frosty by night.

At least it mentions frosts.

[Snowstorm1]

Exactly I agree I see snow regularly during November which is why I said I expect it then onwards but its very rare for anything in October in fact I'm not too sure I have seen it snow and lay in October if I think about it?

Edited September 22, 2011 by Snowstorm1

[A Winter's Tale]

At the moment I think we will see an Indian Summer and very little in the way of wintryness.

However I believe this could be good for a cold and snowy weather. Leave the best of the mild and warm weather in October (and November) rather than the winter months. Also, this should keep the north sea pretty warm and I believe (like previous winters) that we will see a notable cold spell following a period of an active atlantic/mild spell. With the North Sea quite warm, under a strong easterly wind, this should create some amazing snowfalls and in my opinion, if we are going to have a severe cold spell this winter then it would better take place between late November and Late December to get the really big snowfalls.

[Aaron]

Clear conditions by day should lead to chilly nights I would have thought.

[Isolated Frost]

I'm curious as to how many snow lying days we will get this winter here in Durham.

Last time round:

October - 0

November - 6

December - 22 AFAIK

January - 0 AFAIK

February - 0

March - 0

April - 0

I recorded some snow showers early on the morning of the 8th of November, 17 days before the first snow lying day. It was about 730 to 750 in the morning in Gateshead - marvellous

Darn crazy that 2011 is snowless so far here! I'd hope TWS or PP, paul tall and the rest can back me up, because I don't seem to remember any snow falling or lying after Dec 27th?

Aaron - usually that is the case, but under:

A) a milder, or windier SWly

B) a humid, warn Sly with HP far to the east (Germany, Scandi etc.)

Then the flow should keep temps up. If we get HP covering E England it could make for cooler nights, but if we pump in humid southerlies with hp too far east to ridge or connect, 15C lows widespread are likely.

[Aaron]

Guess we were one of the few places in England to actually get any decent snow in 2011.. not to brag or anything.

EDIT 15C lows in September? Yuck.

Edited September 22, 2011 by Aaron

[sundog]

So far this year ive only had a very light covering of snow for a few hours back in jan the 7th.

[Gavin P]

At the moment I think we will see an Indian Summer and very little in the way of wintryness.

However I believe this could be good for a cold and snowy weather. Leave the best of the mild and warm weather in October (and November) rather than the winter months. Also, this should keep the north sea pretty warm and I believe (like previous winters) that we will see a notable cold spell following a period of an active atlantic/mild spell. With the North Sea quite warm, under a strong easterly wind, this should create some amazing snowfalls and in my opinion, if we are going to have a severe cold spell this winter then it would better take place between late November and Late December to get the really big snowfalls.

The autumn of 1978 didn't see so much as a frost until it suddenly turned exceptionally cold in the last five days of November.

[scotty_boy_winter]

That would all be relevant if I was "having a go"

Let's not turn a perfectly rationale statement that I feel BFTP doesn't back enough up with evidence for me to respect what's been said with childish comments.

No one should be untouchable in regards to constructive critisicsm

I think having a go at BFTP when some of what you have posted is not even proper English ("Googel", "Wring", "Bit now is the chance") is a bit rich.

BFTP does back up a lot of his views with science and I suggest you read some of his long range forecasts in a bit more depth.

I agree it's not whether someone is right or wrong though is it. GP has an idea backs the idea up with evidence and then waits for results.

That is respectable science don't you agree?

Others post LRF with scientific reasoning and facts, but then see the weather do exactly the opposite too what they forecast. Shades of 76 spring to mind.

[bobbydog]

leave it.....!

[Daniel Miller]

I have never seen bftp back up anything he says with science, links, charts etc. I don't think he actually understands the science of it and has built up a reputation by telling people what they want to hear and remembering key terminology from googel articles.

I could be wring bftp bit now is the chance to show us all your not all talk and you can back things up with science??

Well see, if you don't your reputation will take a hit

Sorry mate but I've seen you on a few threads now and it seems to me that you are going out of your way to make trouble. If you're so clever, how about you compile a winter forecast for us please, seeing as BFTP doesn't do a good enough job of it. If you go on the BBC say we're going to have warm spell, do you expect them to back it up with a 100 page dossier on it? No. I can assure you BFTP knows more about weather than you do, and given that he gives up his time to write up a forecast for us should be praised.

"The perturbation cycle is maintaining a prevalent -ve NAO state and with oceans in cool state widespread NH cold is likely". Is that not "scientific" enough for you because it hardly oozes of misunderstanding.

Edited September 22, 2011 by Daniel Miller

[Crepuscular Ray]

Oh gawd, all I did was ask BFTP to explain one term and provide a link.

This is now getting completely off topic and unpleasant. I'm sorry that I provoked a debate that has become extremely personal: I may not agree with what BFTP posts or his methods, but I did not intend to provoke denigration of his integrity, let alone a childish squabble.

BACK ON TOPIC, PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!!!

Edited September 22, 2011 by crepuscular ray

[bobbydog]

Oh gawd, all I did was ask BFTP to explain one term and provide a link.

This is now getting completely off topic and unpleasant. I'm sorry that I provoked a debate that has become extremely personal: I may not agree with what BFTP posts or his methods, but I did not intend to provoke denigration of his integrity, let alone a childish squabble.

BACK ON TOPIC, PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!!!

well said. also bftp hasn't been on to defend himself, so could anyone who has a problem, just wait until he does.

meanwhile, back to winter!