Winter 2011/2012

[Staffordshire]

That picture is quite impressive though, where was it took?

we are in for a severe winter but the met office are keeping it a secret.... shhh....

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/8237397/Met-Office-kept-winter-forecast-secret-from-public.html

how ridiculous is that?

they get criticised for their LRF's, then slated for not doing them!!

they can't win!!!

[Weather-history]

Funny, I seem to remember him in the run-up saying he couldn't see anything special on the cards for Europe (or our corner of Europe at least).

He did but I'm talking about nearer the time when he made a video blog, thats why I said when the models were picking up on it on this and he showed a snow depth prediction for early December for Europe and he was saying how amazing it was.

Edited September 19, 2011 by Mr_Data

[19jacobob93]

Haha, that's the point, after these past few cold, snowy winters, an 'average' winter would seem out of place!

Agreed! I remember in Feb 09, we got about 8 inches that lasted for just over a week and it was the most we'd had since 1995 (which was when I was 2 so can't really remember). It seemed to last for ages and seemed so severe and I remember the temperature got down to about -7 or -8 and I couldn't believe it! Yet the winter after we got much more snow, much earlier (17th Dec) and the temperature got much lower (-13!), yet it didn't seem quite as special as Feb 09! I think this is because I'm expecting cold winters now, and when we eventually get a mild winter or even an average one without any notable cold spells, I think I'm going to be heartbroken!

[ZONE 51]

http://www.cpc.ncep....s-fcsts-web.pdf

this is the link to the NASA ENSO site where the correct terminology for SST departures is shown!

very good read that pdf!

[lfcdude]

anyone seen the express front page? was just watching sky news paper review... there front page.. big freeze.. snow as early as next month.....

Daily mail... now have competition!!

http://www.express.c...arly-big-freeze

Paul Michaelwaite, forecaster at Netweather, warned “widespread” snowfall could be seen as early as November.

“We are looking at October being cooler than average, and November looks like another cold one, with temperatures below what we would normally expect.

“December looks on the cold side, although we are not looking that far ahead yet.”

netweather... makes front page! haha

Edited September 20, 2011 by lfcdude

[Aaron]

Oh good grief, where on earth have they gotten 'snow next month' from. Now it's one thing to sensationalise.. but at least most of it is from distorted facts and the twisting of words.. this is just plucked from thin air!

[ZONE 51]

Exciting for snow lovers at least! i have been tracking the potential for this for some time and its quite what i was thinking could happen, and it continues to evolve towards that pattern. the indications are to become cold in october-widespread, its watching on the models now for the high to show more certainty, an early winter weather watch is on!

[Bethany C]

For once, as a snow lover, I'm actually rolling my eyes at this article. I like how they spend a good half of the article talking about snow and widespread cold, and then in one tiny paragraph it is mentioned that winter may be 'exceptionally dry'! And they said 'swirly' again...

[Isolated Frost]

Sabrina, last winter was predicted to be exceptionally dry, and December was so, but it was still very snowy. Dry does not mean no snow

[Bethany C]

Sabrina, last winter was predicted to be exceptionally dry, and December was so, but it was still very snowy. Dry does not mean no snow

I know, I think I've just become a bit grouchy with tabloids. On that note, here is the daily mail's try: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2039418/Britain-hit-snow-October--forecasters-predict-early-winter-way.html

Edited September 20, 2011 by sabrina2090

[P-M]

Sabrina, last winter was predicted to be exceptionally dry, and December was so, but it was still very snowy. Dry does not mean no snow

yes but to the untrained mind and eye "exceptionally dry" cunjures up erm dry weather? Like Sabrina said how can they talk about "widespread heavy snowfall" etc etc and then say exceptionally dry? Could you explain (as I am as thick as anything when it comes to this) how somewhere can be exceptionally dry but have huge amounts of PPN as per last year in the NE and Scotland?

I know, I think I've just become a bit grouchy with tabloids. On that note, here is the daily mail's try: http://www.dailymail...winter-way.html

What a croc of s**t! Sorry but that newspaper really does go way over the top! I am really not sure what will happen this winter but if already it's being put out there that we are in for a severe winter either 1) they just want to sell newspapers or 2) They really are on to something - which one is right is anyones guess!

Edited September 20, 2011 by Paul-Michael

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I know, I think I've just become a bit grouchy with tabloids. On that note, here is the daily mail's try: http://www.dailymail...winter-way.html

Quite accurate I would say, the UK being Scotland for snow in 0ct, with frosts in the south, then through the winter the most snow in northern areas

nothing to get excited about if you live in the south

[Ruzzi]

http://www.positiveweathersolutions.co.uk/UK-Eire---Frontier-Cast---Extreme-Long-Range.php

WOW!! PWS just seem to go from one extreme to another, They originally went for an extreme winter, with amazing cold and massive accumulations of snow . . . but now they are saying that winter will virtually be non-existent, with just sleety mild mush! I still don't believe a word of it.

[Radiating Dendrite]

http://www.positivew...-Long-Range.php

WOW!! PWS just seem to go from one extreme to another, They originally went for an extreme winter, with amazing cold and massive accumulations of snow . . . but now they are saying that winter will virtually be non-existent, with just sleety mild mush! I still don't believe a word of it.

Lol.

He is just getting a couple of bankers in.

At the end of winter if it turns out to be cold we will hear "PWS forecasted a cold winter throughout summer 2011"

If it turns out to be mild then we will hear "PWS forecasted a mild winter throughout autumn 2011"

All the guy does is look at what the CFS and other models show. Anyone with half a brain cell could come up with the cr** that he does!

[Methuselah]

http://www.positivew...-Long-Range.php

WOW!! PWS just seem to go from one extreme to another, They originally went for an extreme winter, with amazing cold and massive accumulations of snow . . . but now they are saying that winter will virtually be non-existent, with just sleety mild mush! I still don't believe a word of it.

You highlight my main concern with LRFs, made this early in the autumn, ruzzi. Each year, there are literally dozens of them to choose from; so many so, that any real analysis becomes impossible. And, taken over time, they seem to be about as accurate (inaccurate) as each other...

I'll certainly not be factoring any of them into my winter plans!

[Radiating Dendrite]

You highlight my main concern with LRFs, made this early in the autumn, ruzzi. Each year, there are literally dozens of them to choose from; so many so, that any real analysis becomes impossible. And, taken over time, they seem to be about as accurate (inaccurate) as each other...

I'll certainly not be factoring any of them into my winter plans!

Are you going to do a lrf then PT?

[johnholmes]

http://www.positiveweathersolutions.co.uk/UK-Eire---Frontier-Cast---Extreme-Long-Range.php

I have no time for PWS but I do wish one or two of you would quote what the article/press release or whatever it is not your version of it.

For those interested enough to find out what PWS actually posted the link above will give you this.

[summer blizzard]

At least the Express actually quotes people from a number of sources, the Daily Mail is beyond a joke and i refuse to read any of their articles (i am yet to read one where they have not misquoted somebody).

As for winter, moderate La Nina looks likely coupled with a very negative QBO and PDO. All in all good signs in my opinion.

As for snow next month, possible but unlikely outside Scotland.

[kold weather]

Sounds like PWS is suggesting a fairly standard average winter, maybe something similar to 2005-2006...whilst not amazing compared to the last 3, it wasn't too bad really, and compared to the run of winters we had in the 2000s before 08-09, it was probably one of the best from 96-97 onwards...

[summer blizzard]

Sounds like PWS is suggesting a fairly standard average winter, maybe something similar to 2005-2006...whilst not amazing compared to the last 3, it wasn't too bad really, and compared to the run of winters we had in the 2000s before 08-09, it was probably one of the best from 96-97 onwards...

Winter 2006 was indeed the coldest since 1997 and very dry.

[Don]

Winter 2006 was indeed the coldest since 1997 and very dry.

Winter 2005/06 was incredibly boring for my location with very little snow and lots of grey gloom through February 2006. Even the stinker Winter 2006/07 produced more snow! 2005/06 was a big disappointment considering it was the coldest for nearly 10 years. I agree that the PWS forecast looks like a pretty average UK Winter, nothing special after the last 3 but pretty good compared to the 1997-2008 Winter run.

Edited September 20, 2011 by Don

[bobbydog]

here are the Meto long range probability charts for europe over winter.

there have been claims in the press lately that the meto knew we were in for a cold winter but failed to tell the public. ironically after the media made a mockery of the meto LRF's. apparently, these charts are what the media based their story on, which turned out to be accurate.

on that basis, if the meto get it right again, they believe europe and the UK will have a higher probability of another cold winter

please note, the colours relate to probability in % not to temperature

[19jacobob93]

Lol.

He is just getting a couple of bankers in.

At the end of winter if it turns out to be cold we will hear "PWS forecasted a cold winter throughout summer 2011"

If it turns out to be mild then we will hear "PWS forecasted a mild winter throughout autumn 2011"

All the guy does is look at what the CFS and other models show. Anyone with half a brain cell could come up with the cr** that he does!

Hahaha so true! I honestly can't believe a word they say because it's just so inconsistent!

I still reckon we'll have a winter similar to last year, but more spread out, i.e. less cold before Christmas, and more after.

[picog]

here are the Meto long range probability charts for europe over winter.

Where on the MetO website did you find these charts? I can't find any long range stuff at all.

[bobbydog]

Where on the MetO website did you find these charts? I can't find any long range stuff at all.

its in the research section, here:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks