Winter 2011/2012

[Rollo]

February 2009 contained a large number of marginal snow events which delivered significant lasting snow cover to many inland and upland areas, particularly in the Midlands, parts of Yorkshire, NE Scotland and SW England, but many coastal and lowland areas struggled to see significant accumulations.

I wasn't disappointed by that spell because I spent it in Exeter, where I was thankful just to see any of the white stuff given my location (in fact there were two fairly significant snowfalls there) but I certainly got a strong sense of a letdown in the Tyne and Wear area. I remember expecting Cleadon to be heavily hit by snowstorms from the easterly on the 2nd February 2009 (in much the way that it did during late November/early December 2010) but temperatures were too marginal, only once dropping below 0.7C in one of the showers, and getting reports of 1-2 inches of slush from there.

. Hi TW'S, Even here in Ponteland at a somewhat higher elevation.we only had marginal falls in Feb 2009 and the winter in general seemed to be a series of near misses. One had to go only a few miles further inland for some good depths however--what a difference elevation makes.

[Aaron]

February 2009 contained a large number of marginal snow events which delivered significant lasting snow cover to many inland and upland areas, particularly in the Midlands, parts of Yorkshire, NE Scotland and SW England, but many coastal and lowland areas struggled to see significant accumulations.

I wasn't disappointed by that spell because I spent it in Exeter, where I was thankful just to see any of the white stuff given my location (in fact there were two fairly significant snowfalls there) but I certainly got a strong sense of a letdown in the Tyne and Wear area. I remember expecting Cleadon to be heavily hit by snowstorms from the easterly on the 2nd February 2009 (in much the way that it did during late November/early December 2010) but temperatures were too marginal, only once dropping below 0.7C in one of the showers, and getting reports of 1-2 inches of slush from there.

We had a bout 2 weeks of lying snow here in February 2009 (only because it kept melting during the day then re freezing at night, so basically ice eventually). I remember the landscape being really dead and ugly but with frozen snow on all grass surfaces.. not pretty

Edited September 15, 2011 by Aaron

[summer blizzard]

We had a bout 2 weeks of lying snow here in February 2009 (only because it kept melting during the day then re freezing at night, so basically ice eventually). I remember the landscape being really dead and ugly but with frozen snow on all grass surfaces.. not pretty

At my location we got 14cm and 14 days of lying snow which made it the best spell since at least 2001. I can't remember if it kept melting or not but i do know that at 90m asl there was nothing after 6 days. The airport supposedly had around 8 inches.

[summer blizzard]

July-August MEI anologues are in, La Nina restrengthened and is now effectively at weak strength. Strangely there are no anologues matching both the MEI and QBO.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html

2010

2008

2007

1999

1996

1989

1988

1985

1984

1981

1975

1973

1964

1961

1955

1954

[Aaron]

At my location we got 14cm and 14 days of lying snow which made it the best spell since at least 2001. I can't remember if it kept melting or not but i do know that at 90m asl there was nothing after 6 days. The airport supposedly had around 8 inches.

The snow certainly lasted longer than that, I'm certain. I can remember at least a week after the fall on the 2nd of February, that there was only frozen snow on grass surfaces. Maybe 2 weeks is pushing it but it was there for a long time.

[Snowmad79]

July-August MEI anologues are in, La Nina restrengthened and is now effectively at weak strength. Strangely there are no anologues matching both the MEI and QBO.

http://www.esrl.noaa.../mei/table.html

2010

2008

2007

1999

1996

1989

1988

1985

1984

1981

1975

1973

1964

1961

1955

1954

81 and 61 didn't meet the minimum threshold of 5 consecutive over lapping seasons

EG. (copy & pasted i know)

JAS

ASO

SON

OND

NDJ

They were Neutral Enso years mate, which I guess you probably know. Just wondering why those two years are mentioned in your post?.

.

[Geordiesnow]

. Hi TW'S, Even here in Ponteland at a somewhat higher elevation.we only had marginal falls in Feb 2009 and the winter in general seemed to be a series of near misses. One had to go only a few miles further inland for some good depths however--what a difference elevation makes.

I think some members from around this area were forgetting a few events from that month. The first being that we had heavy snow showers during the day(Even the flash of lightning/rumble of thunder in those showers) on the 2nd which left a decent covering of snow and there was forecast for a band of snow to hit us from the South overnight but in the end as predicted by many on here, it was too marginal and all we end up with was light-moderate rain/sleet which washed away most of the snowcover.

There was a surprising snowfall event on the 12th February where we(and other parts of NE and SE Scotland) recieved a few hours of heavy snow from the occuladed front coming from the West, there were youtube videos with the forecasts stating the front would just produce a band of cloud with the odd spot of rain but in the end, the front developed a wave or something and we had heavy snow instead. The snow did turn back to rain but the PPN by that time was quite light thus snowmelt was fairly minimal and slow lasting. We even had Rob McElwee at the time admitting there was more snowfall than we thought on the lunchtime weather which is also on youtube.

Edited September 15, 2011 by Geordiesnow

[johnholmes]

Winter 2011/2012

sorry to be a kill joy but

the title of the thread as it shows above is?

Really interesting to read what folk got last December, or any other month but your thoughts on winter 2011-2012?

[Cheese Rice]

Yes I would love to hear your thoughts JH

[Aaron]

It's going to be cold. And uh.. it will snow in Braemar.

[Cheese Rice]

And Leeds obv...

Anyway yeah Feb 2009 was only really decent if you lived on high ground in central areas or south east England. Otherwise there was alot of margianl events.

The evening of Feb 2nd was decent here, while many places saw rain we saw an abundance of snow. LBA reported a questionable 29cm of snow, here we saw around 15-20cm with higher accumulations of snow on the grass.

Edited September 15, 2011 by Cheese Rice

[skifreak]

summer blizzard, in your post above does 2010 refer to matching July-Aug 2010 (thus winter 2011), or mean the analogue leads to winter 2010?

If the later I note your list includes some of the absolute fantastic classic Scottish Ski Seasons alongside the absolute worst, with not much inbetween!

[ZONE 51]

Came someone invent a thread about what we had last winter

...

[Snow_Fan_Man]

Gief snow!

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

And Leeds obv...

Anyway yeah Feb 2009 was only really decent if you lived on high ground in central areas or south east England. Otherwise there was alot of margianl events.

The evening of Feb 2nd was decent here, while many places saw rain we saw an abundance of snow. LBA reported a questionable 29cm of snow, here we saw around 15-20cm with higher accumulations of snow on the grass.

Yeah, not a bad one that up here either:

[MP-R]

I would say that the last three winter have all been decent for snow here in the West Country. Although the the first half of winter 08/09 was cold, there wasn't any snow, but the first week of February brought 30cm in total, split between the 2nd, 5th and 6th. There was still heaps of it atop the Mendips the following weekend (the 13th I think.)

10/11 was also very good for snow during the cold spells. The first fall was light but early on November 26th, another light fall on the 1st, then two heavy falls on the 17th and 18th followed by a top up on the 20th. A light fall also followed on January 3rd and a heavy fall was too marginal to settle on the 7th.

Though 09/10 was the best with snow on December 21st, 23rd, 24th / January 5th, 6th, 13th, 21st / February 18th, 22nd. More impressive than the other two with cold spaced out across the whole season, still exceptionally so in January. Fingers crossed for a more spread out winter rather than bang and the snow is gone.

[kold weather]

I'm really not sure what to expect this winter, as I said before to get 4 winters that are below average would be exceptional even in much colder phases of our climate. however the N.Hemispheric pattern has been amazing stubborn in the last couple of years no matter what phase the ENSO deices to go into, which suggests to me we maybe now in a real long term pattern that is more condusive for cold in winter time, like we had in say the mid 50s through to the late 60s and in the 80s.

My gut is probably close to average but with one significant cold spell that before 2008-2009 would have been regarded as amazing...

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think some members from around this area were forgetting a few events from that month. The first being that we had heavy snow showers during the day(Even the flash of lightning/rumble of thunder in those showers) on the 2nd which left a decent covering of snow and there was forecast for a band of snow to hit us from the South overnight but in the end as predicted by many on here, it was too marginal and all we end up with was light-moderate rain/sleet which washed away most of the snowcover.

There was a surprising snowfall event on the 12th February where we(and other parts of NE and SE Scotland) recieved a few hours of heavy snow from the occuladed front coming from the West, there were youtube videos with the forecasts stating the front would just produce a band of cloud with the odd spot of rain but in the end, the front developed a wave or something and we had heavy snow instead. The snow did turn back to rain but the PPN by that time was quite light thus snowmelt was fairly minimal and slow lasting. We even had Rob McElwee at the time admitting there was more snowfall than we thought on the lunchtime weather which is also on youtube.

Yes, you are right, although the 2nd February 2009 event was mostly a slushy mess, there was one batch of heavy snow showers shortly after 9am which dropped the temperature at Cleadon to 0.3C (no other batches of showers dragged it any lower than 0.7C), and produced thunder for some across the region as you mention, and I remember Neil Bradshaw's webcam indicating a decent snow cover for a while afterwards.

Cleadon's deepest snow cover of that period arose from that surprise snowfall on the 12th, up to about 6-7cm at one point before a transition back to rain shaved a little bit off the snow cover.

Regarding 2011/12, I think this thread keeps veering off-topic mainly because we're at too long a range to be able to have much of an idea. I have to admit that I couldn't provide more than a wild guess as to how the winter will pan out, though I have a feeling that it may turn out to be another eventful one though without the severity of last December.

[summer blizzard]

The snow certainly lasted longer than that, I'm certain. I can remember at least a week after the fall on the 2nd of February, that there was only frozen snow on grass surfaces. Maybe 2 weeks is pushing it but it was there for a long time.

I was working in Dewsbury at the time at 90m asl, so there may be local differences. I am only 5.1 miles away and had 14 days.

81 and 61 didn't meet the minimum threshold of 5 consecutive over lapping seasons

EG. (copy & pasted i know)

JAS

ASO

SON

OND

NDJ

They were Neutral Enso years mate, which I guess you probably know. Just wondering why those two years are mentioned in your post?.

.

My analysis was simply based on strengthening negative reading during July and August, hence despite being neutral they are close enougth for me to percieve as possible anologues.

If i can find anologues which are closish in both the MEI and QBO then they give a decent standpoint to make a potential forecast.

summer blizzard, in your post above does 2010 refer to matching July-Aug 2010 (thus winter 2011), or mean the analogue leads to winter 2010?

If the later I note your list includes some of the absolute fantastic classic Scottish Ski Seasons alongside the absolute worst, with not much inbetween!

Yes, it does refer to the July-August period of those years, thus winters are ahead of the data (so 2010 means the following winter is winter 2010/2011).

Using only one teleconnection there will be several contrasts which is why i also analyse the QBO and occasionally the PDO to find matches. There are no MEI-QBO matches for the July-August period.

[mcweather]

My first post for a while. Its always very interesting to read peoples thoughts.

Regarding the coming winter I see nothing in the current set up and the predicted outcomes for Enso/pdo/nao etc that would see the atmosphere in our part of the world differing hugely from the last three winters.

So my tentative prediction at this time would be for another winter in which we have at least one extended cold and snowy spell that we could only have dreamed of ten years ago. Quite probably colder than average overall. By how much, only time will tell.

[beng]

I'm really not sure what to expect this winter, as I said before to get 4 winters that are below average would be exceptional even in much colder phases of our climate. however the N.Hemispheric pattern has been amazing stubborn in the last couple of years no matter what phase the ENSO deices to go into, which suggests to me we maybe now in a real long term pattern that is more condusive for cold in winter time, like we had in say the mid 50s through to the late 60s and in the 80s.

My gut is probably close to average but with one significant cold spell that before 2008-2009 would have been regarded as amazing...

Yes I agree with this, I'd guess a long the same lines at this stage. Worth adding though that the significant cold spell might well still make it a cold winter relative to majority of the ones from 1992-2007.

If the sun is indeed impacting blocking patterns, then the winter average CET may well take a knock down for the next decade or so; maybe 2009/2010 becomes a bit closer to the average we can expect over the next few years.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I certainly think Nov is more winter than Feb, a darker month, weaker sun, and winter build up on model thread etc, key signs and what to look for

Feb is lighter, higher and stronger sun, and lots of ppl starting to think about spring

[vortex_liam]

it'll be a cold one, i said that last year. And i was right.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

I've heard it mentioned and I believe the CET records back it up that cold winters ( or at least ones with potent cold and/or snowy spells within them) do generaly seem to come in long batches lasting up to a decade or more) this should give us all a bit of confidence for next winter. However I don't want to put a downer on anybodys hopes, but it seems that even in those periods of cold and snowy winters in the past, there were the odd mild dominated winters thrown in, like the mildest winter yet recorded 1685-1686. A more relatively recent example (correct me if i'm wrong) might be 1979-1980. So i'd thought i'd just throw that out there for people to think about.

[Supercell 89]

Its a bit late to say but i think we may see a fairly mild but unsettled and at times stormy Autumn this year, particularly October although winter may show an increasingly early hand during November i feel.

As for winter i think we will see another cold winter but also very dry and possibly another very cold month, i don't think La Nina is going to cause to much of a problem this year and will be more weak/moderate in strength.