Winter 2011/2012

[snowdrifter]

Well I repeat Im no expert on this but we are now at the peak of the solar cycle and despite an increase the sun spots are still very low compared to what they should be during a solar maximum

Its when you see numbers going up it looks a little worrying if a snowy/cold winter if whats you're after, but I agree - the latest photos of the sun still look v weak re sunspots. Cheers Ss1.

[summer blizzard]

Well I repeat Im no expert on this but we are now at the peak of the solar cycle and despite an increase the sun spots are still very low compared to what they should be during a solar maximum

Well I repeat Im no expert on this but we are now at the peak of the solar cycle and despite an increase the sun spots are still very low compared to what they should be during a solar maximum

We are quite near the peak, solar maxima will occur between 2012-2014 based on solar flux data before the next minimum, the next maximum will be part of the Gleissenburg Minimum and should be practically non-existent.

[stewfox]

Something to worry about, as the ARTIC is already starting to cool down and is currently at -10C, if it continues depending on the weather patterns we could be in for a record breaker.

I would be more worried if it started to warm up.

So which was the most accurate for last year re 2010/11 forcast ?

http://www.positivew...er-Forecast.php

http://www.netweathe...r-forecast;sess

http://theweatherout...type=pr&id=1774

http://globalcooling...011-update.html

http://ukweather.wor...1-final-update/

I think the last one was the most 'sensible'

Edited October 9, 2011 by stewfox

[Isolated Frost]

I'd say the netweather one was very accurate. Interestingly, the last one that you said was most sensible stewfox, is made by Netweather's Daniel AKA WMD, if I recall correctly.

[damianslaw]

So many different opinions about what winter will bring.

I have been saying now since July, that were likely to have a slow start to winter, bar the odd northerly incursion in November, and it's now looking as if more people are jumping onto the bandwagon.

A settled and dry start to December, following on from a generally cold, wet and potentially quite windy November is how I see things starting off.

As we head towards the festive period, I still believe that things will start to fall into place, with omega blocking the atlantic dominated feed, and the weather swinging from a more Easterly direction, although I don't believe we'll see a true easterly feed until January.

IMO that were not really going to see prolonged cold and snowy conditions (South of Scotland) for the most part this winter, at least up until Mid Jan, thereafter is simply too far off, and I don't think anyone can tell you what is likely to happen past Mid Jan at this stage, with any degree of certainty, indeed, even trying to predict Decembers likely weather at this stage can't really be done with more than 33.3% confidence he he..we can simply point at trends, and patterns.

What I have noticed this winter is the quick build up of Ice over the N.Hemisphere, which is almost making landfall now to N.Russia, once the ice sheet hits land, true winter starts to creep ever eastwards, and it's really a question of where the cool pooling is going to be, and in which direction it heads come Mid Dec, once it's established itself.

Looking at the CFS charts today you can clearly see cold pooling headed towards mid Europe in November, creeping East, but never really impacting the UK, and this has been the case in the CFS cimputer runs for a while now.

So As I have stated several times on various forums, IMO a dry and even mild start to December, mid month well see a change taking place, to much cooler conditions, but whether that will lead to widespread snowfall just in time for x-mas dinner is another question entirely and one no one can answer at this stage, the good thing is that cold looks probable from about 20th Dec onwards, if it simply says hello and buggers off East or if it decides to spend it's x-mas vacation in the UK, and go sight seeing until early March is someething we'll simply have to wait to find out the answer to.

Your prediction - suggests a rather traditional start to the winter, some colder blips in Nov to get us going - nothing exceptional, a mild wet start to december but becoming notably colder mid month and in the run-up to christmas. I think it is a very sensible forecast, I rather doubt we will see a similiar start to the season as last year, but it is possible we see somethin akin to 2008/2009 - I rather enjoyed the latter part of Nov 2008 and first part of Dec 2008 lots of cold weather with some snow, but nothing ridiculous and unlike last year it all felt rather less worrying in terms of prospects for the rest of the winter - last year was an anomaly, much rather see a start like 2008 or 2009 (but withough the floods of Nov 09 it has to be said).

[Supercell 89]

Just stumbled across this article thought it may provoke some interest.http://www.bbc.co.uk...onment-15199065

Although I thought that a cooler stratosphere caused milder winters and a stronger polar vortex?

Edited October 9, 2011 by Supercell 89

[Isolated Frost]

Just incase anyone cares, or wonders, about previous winters, I've spent the last half hour researching temperatures here at Durham in the last 20 winters - I will hope to do records from 1910 tomorrow

What's interesting is that 1997-98 is milder than the infamous 2006-07 one up here, and how the 2009-10 winter sticks out like a sore tongue - I hope you find this data useful or interesting Thanks to the Durham University Observatory for this.

1991-92: 4.3c (8.0c/0.5c) 37 air frosts

1992-93: 4.3c (7.5c/1.1c) 33 air frosts

1993-94: 3.0c (5.8c/0.2c) 42 air frosts

1994-95: 5.0c (8.1c/1.8c) 25 air frosts

1995-96: 2.6c (5.1c/0.1c) 39 air frosts

1996-97: 3.7c (6.5c/0.8c) 35 air frosts

1997-98: 5.7c (8.5c/2.8c) 15 air frosts

1998-99: 4.7c (7.9c/1.5c) 24 air frosts

1999-00: 4.7c (7.6c/1.7c) 25 air frosts

2000-01: 3.7c (6.6c/0.7c) 42 air frosts

2001-02: 4.6c (7.7c/1.5c) 33 air frosts

2002-03: 4.2c (6.7c/1.7c) 30 air frosts

2003-04: 5.1c (8.0c/2.1c) 29 air frosts

2004-05: 4.9c (7.9c/1.9c) 25 air frosts

2005-06: 4.1c (6.9c/1.2c) 28 air frosts

2006-07: 5.5c (8.5c/4.5c) 22 air frosts

2007-08: 4.7c (7.8c/1.5c) 32 air frosts

2008-09: 3.8c (6.6c/1.0c) 35 air frosts

2009-10: 1.8c (4.4c/-0.9c) 52 air frosts

2010-11: 2.9c (5.8c/0.0c) 46 air frosts

[damianslaw]

Just incase anyone cares, or wonders, about previous winters, I've spent the last half hour researching temperatures here at Durham in the last 20 winters - I will hope to do records from 1910 tomorrow

What's interesting is that 1997-98 is milder than the infamous 2006-07 one up here, and how the 2009-10 winter sticks out like a sore tongue - I hope you find this data useful or interesting Thanks to the Durham University Observatory for this.

1991-92: 4.3c (8.0c/0.5c) 37 air frosts

1992-93: 4.3c (7.5c/1.1c) 33 air frosts

1993-94: 3.0c (5.8c/0.2c) 42 air frosts

1994-95: 5.0c (8.1c/1.8c) 25 air frosts

1995-96: 2.6c (5.1c/0.1c) 39 air frosts

1996-97: 3.7c (6.5c/0.8c) 35 air frosts

1997-98: 5.7c (8.5c/2.8c) 15 air frosts

1998-99: 4.7c (7.9c/1.5c) 24 air frosts

1999-00: 4.7c (7.6c/1.7c) 25 air frosts

2000-01: 3.7c (6.6c/0.7c) 42 air frosts

2001-02: 4.6c (7.7c/1.5c) 33 air frosts

2002-03: 4.2c (6.7c/1.7c) 30 air frosts

2003-04: 5.1c (8.0c/2.1c) 29 air frosts

2004-05: 4.9c (7.9c/1.9c) 25 air frosts

2005-06: 4.1c (6.9c/1.2c) 28 air frosts

2006-07: 5.5c (8.5c/4.5c) 22 air frosts

2007-08: 4.7c (7.8c/1.5c) 32 air frosts

2008-09: 3.8c (6.6c/1.0c) 35 air frosts

2009-10: 1.8c (4.4c/-0.9c) 52 air frosts

2010-11: 2.9c (5.8c/0.0c) 46 air frosts

What is also quite notable is how decent winter 93/94 was for cold weather. Its a bit of a forgotten winter, whilst it did have some notable mild spells it also had alot of polar maritime air and a decent easterly in mid feb. For the northern half of the country is was quite snowy, the hills receiving quite alot. It is probably forgotton because it never delivered any significant very cold weather unlike the other two colder 90 winters of 90/91 and 95/96 and the south never really saw much snowy weather esp in December - whilst the north saw rather alot of the stuff that month. It also came on the back of a decent run of notably cool/cold months - late nov 93 was notably cold and snowy and there was a potent cold blast in mid october.

[Isolated Frost]

What is also quite notable is how decent winter 93/94 was for cold weather. Its a bit of a forgotten winter, whilst it did have some notable mild spells it also had alot of polar maritime air and a decent easterly in mid feb. For the northern half of the country is was quite snowy, the hills receiving quite alot. It is probably forgotton because it never delivered any significant very cold weather unlike the other two colder 90 winters of 90/91 and 95/96 and the south never really saw much snowy weather esp in December - whilst the north saw rather alot of the stuff that month. It also came on the back of a decent run of notably cool/cold months - late nov 93 was notably cold and snowy and there was a potent cold blast in mid october.

Yes, I recently read about how good the season was for the Scottish Highlands - delivering a load of snow patches that lasted to next autumn/winter and the mammoth amount of snow that fell that winter. Unsurprising with a barrage of polar maritime flows - I wouldn't mind something similar this winter - often brings sunshine and convection side-by-side here in the NE.

[Alex95]

What is also quite notable is how decent winter 93/94 was for cold weather. Its a bit of a forgotten winter, whilst it did have some notable mild spells it also had alot of polar maritime air and a decent easterly in mid feb. For the northern half of the country is was quite snowy, the hills receiving quite alot. It is probably forgotton because it never delivered any significant very cold weather unlike the other two colder 90 winters of 90/91 and 95/96 and the south never really saw much snowy weather esp in December - whilst the north saw rather alot of the stuff that month. It also came on the back of a decent run of notably cool/cold months - late nov 93 was notably cold and snowy and there was a potent cold blast in mid october.

Indeed. A 93/94 repeat would be welcome here!

[Aaron]

February 1994 was pretty good, a lot of ice days and I wouldn't be moaning if we got a repeat.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

93-94 dosent look too good for the south, but very snowy for the north

[Isolated Frost]

The next segment is the winters from 1971-72 to 1990-91 - I will try to do those since 1900 tomorrow in small segments. Notice the trend for mild winters from 1971 to 1975, and the trend for cooler winters from 1976 to 1986 - just in time to start a new milder trend which has had a few blips since (90-91, 93-94, 95-96, 00-01, 05-06). I also wonder if we'll see a winter as mild as 1988-89 up here in the North East again!

1971-72: 4.3c (6.6c/2.0c) 20 air frosts

1972-73: 4.2c (7.0c/1.4c) 29 air frosts

1973-74: 4.5c (7.4c/1.5c) 24 air frosts

1974-75: 5.3c (8.2c/2.3c) 22 air frosts

1975-76: 4.5c (7.4c/1.6c) 18 air frosts

1976-77: 2.5c (4.8c/-0.1c) 39 air frosts

1977-78: 2.7c (5.3c/0.0c) 40 air frosts

1978-79: 0.9c (3.3c/-1.5c) 55 air frosts

1979-80: 3.7c (5.9c/1.5c) 31 air frosts

1980-81: 4.0c (6.9c/1.0c) 40 air frosts

1981-82: 1.9c (5.0c/-1.3c) 42 air frosts

1982-83: 3.5c (6.3c/0.6c) 37 air frosts

1983-84: 3.5c (6.2c/0.7c) 39 air frosts

1984-85: 2.5c (5.3c/-0.4c) 49 air frosts

1985-86: 2.3c (4.8c/-0.3c) 49 air frosts

1986-87: 3.1c (5.7c/0.4c) 32 air frosts

1987-88: 4.8c (7.6c/1.9c) 21 air frosts

1988-89: 6.3c (9.4c/3.2c) 11 air frosts

1989-90: 5.1c (8.3c/1.9c) 22 air frosts

1990-91: 3.0c (5.9c/0.0c) 44 air frosts

1991-92: 4.3c (8.0c/0.5c) 37 air frosts

1992-93: 4.3c (7.5c/1.1c) 33 air frosts

1993-94: 3.0c (5.8c/0.2c) 42 air frosts

1994-95: 5.0c (8.1c/1.8c) 25 air frosts

1995-96: 2.6c (5.1c/0.1c) 39 air frosts

1996-97: 3.7c (6.5c/0.8c) 35 air frosts

1997-98: 5.7c (8.5c/2.8c) 15 air frosts

1998-99: 4.7c (7.9c/1.5c) 24 air frosts

1999-00: 4.7c (7.6c/1.7c) 25 air frosts

2000-01: 3.7c (6.6c/0.7c) 42 air frosts

2001-02: 4.6c (7.7c/1.5c) 33 air frosts

2002-03: 4.2c (6.7c/1.7c) 30 air frosts

2003-04: 5.1c (8.0c/2.1c) 29 air frosts

2004-05: 4.9c (7.9c/1.9c) 25 air frosts

2005-06: 4.1c (6.9c/1.2c) 28 air frosts

2006-07: 5.5c (8.5c/4.5c) 22 air frosts

2007-08: 4.7c (7.8c/1.5c) 32 air frosts

2008-09: 3.8c (6.6c/1.0c) 35 air frosts

2009-10: 1.8c (4.4c/-0.9c) 52 air frosts

2010-11: 2.9c (5.8c/0.0c) 46 air frosts

Edited October 9, 2011 by Isolated Frost

[Met4Cast]

I'd say the netweather one was very accurate. Interestingly, the last one that you said was most sensible stewfox, is made by Netweather's Daniel AKA WMD, if I recall correctly.

Yep that's right. Looking back on that forecast, I didn't do too badly in my opinion for the beginning part of winter, although I did underestimate the amount of snow we had, the general pattern I predicted wasn't too far off. The second half of that forecast went absolutely downhill and completely wrong pattern wise, although, it was a much milder February. So make of it what you will. Whilst partly right and partly wrong, I'm quite proud of how I did.

[Isolated Frost]

Yep that's right. Looking back on that forecast, I didn't do too badly in my opinion for the beginning part of winter, although I did underestimate the amount of snow we had, the general pattern I predicted wasn't too far off. The second half of that forecast went absolutely downhill and completely wrong pattern wise, although, it was a much milder February. So make of it what you will. Whilst partly right and partly wrong, I'm quite proud of how I did.

Yes, tbf, not many people could have predicted how severe that cold was in December, and on say December 26th, you wouldn't think that February would turn out so mild. But in the scheme of it all, February was no milder than many even larger teapot Februaries' of the past.

[Robbie Garrett]

-20 in a few weeks!

http://news.google.c...ved=0CDAQqgIwAA

Edited October 9, 2011 by Robbie Garrett

[Met4Cast]

-20 in a few weeks!

http://news.google.c...ved=0CDAQqgIwAA

Sadly more Media Hype. By "weeks" they could mean anything from 2 weeks, to 18 weeks and beyond. There's nothing in the short, medium or long term models to suggest anything near that cold in the near or distant future. The Media do love to pick up sensationlist forecasts and make them even more sensational, don't they?

[Guest]

Cold or mild - I blame the jet streams and as yet I do not believe we have sufficient knowledge to determine where they will be some 2,3 or 4 months hence and even when we think they are set in properly, they change as last winter going to a mild from a very cold mid season.

[Robbie Garrett]

Sadly more Media Hype. By "weeks" they could mean anything from 2 weeks, to 18 weeks and beyond. There's nothing in the short, medium or long term models to suggest anything near that cold in the near or distant future. The Media do love to pick up sensationlist forecasts and make them even more sensational, don't they?

Cold or mild - I blame the jet streams and as yet I do not believe we have sufficient knowledge to determine where they will be some 2,3 or 4 months hence and even when we think they are set in properly, they change as last winter going to a mild from a very cold mid season.

Of course, but you cannot forecast the British Weather on the day let alone a few weeks in advanced.

[Ladyofthestorm]

hmmm, if I recall by this time last year (or nearly this time last year).... the eastern part of Europe was alreaddy plunged below freezing with very heavy snow thus signalling a start of continental cooling that brought us into November. You have to admit the Atlantic is very active (not so much in terms of wind), more in terms of ots ability to keep high pressure away to the south!

The question is..... are we stuck in that rutt?

[19jacobob93]

late nov 93 was notably cold and snowy and there was a potent cold blast in mid october.

Being 4 months old at the time I can't remember but I found a photo of me taken 14/11/93 in Bradford and there was an inch or two of lying snow!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Its when you see numbers going up it looks a little worrying if a snowy/cold winter if whats you're after, but I agree - the latest photos of the sun still look v weak re sunspots. Cheers Ss1.

What you have to look at is not what it compares to this time last year but how it compares to cycles 18-23 during the 20th century etc. This cycle is still very low. It is mirroring cycle 5 [Dalton proportions] and it is anticipated that 25 will be even quieter. We are heading towards the maxima of this cycle over next 2 years, we should expect an increase. Also to note, sunspots are being counted now that could not be seen by Wolf et al way back when.

BFTP

Edited October 10, 2011 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Methuselah]

And we all know how unreliable Solar Activity forecasts can be...

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

And we all know how unreliable Solar Activity forecasts can be...

Do we? this is going according to plan by astyrophysicists I've been following. Landscheidt etc. Its the likes of HANSEN who have been way off the mark.

BFTP

BFTP

[Methuselah]

Do we? this is going according to plan by astyrophysicists I've been following. Landscheidt etc. Its the likes of HANSEN who have been way off the mark.

BFTP

BFTP

I guess that in fifty years' time, once all the competing (and yet to be invented) theories been better tested, we'll have a better idea of how things are going. Until then (when I'll be dead! ) I'll be keeping an open mind...