Ex Ts Katia To Hit The Uk - Chat Thread 2

[SP1986]

Wind suddenly started to pick up here, but in waves, not in strong gusts. Typically around 20mph or so, can hear the trees being blown every time one of these 'waves' hits.

[Liam J]

GFS has a minor adjustment to the south, Severe gales across Northern Ireland then Central & South-west Scotland and across Northern England late morning onwards. Gales also affecting areas further south in N England.

Nothing exceptional but not to be taken lightly Lots of people will be out and about during the day going about there business, not a good time for a storm to hit with 70mph+ gusts, rush hour will be a bit nasty Monday evening.

Edited September 11, 2011 by Liam J

[Snow and storms]

I was wondering the same thing about the shortwave thing. It all seem to of gone so quiet out there, I was expecting this thing to roll out the jet stream as a monster, it seems to have swallowed the other depression and gone to sleep.

[Chris.R]

Yes SP, am keeping an eye on the spring tides, tide was coming in earlier and the high spring tide is at 2230z tomorro for liverpool. Tide was already high up the beach when I got therre and I should think it will be up to the top of the sea wall tomorro

[snowfall09]

Is the 18z out yet??? if so whats it showing please before i go off to bed.

The only difference i can see is the increase in the gust speeds along the south coast from around 45mph to about 55mph

[Marie]

It is out and it's pretty much the same as the 12z really.

Ok thanks,bed time it is then dont think i will miss anything lol.

[pyrotech]

Apologies if this has been asked before but what significance, if any, would a shortwave make to the current weather pattern? New to all this and I find it fascinating.

Ok firstly what i spotted is unlikely to be a shortwave, what it would have done is become a new low seperate to the ex katia low, a shortwave may form somewhere but gfs shows this to be at the Northwest area of the low. What looked like a shortwave is more likely to be jet fibre as the high velocity jet stream approaches the South West Uk. The Low is still in an exit path from the North of the Jet so potential for it to try a deepen again, but a shortwave to the South of the low looks less likely now.

[loopydreamer]

i have been out for a fag and the one thing i noticed was a difference in the wind! earlier we had gusts but nothing else but now i have noticed the wind is more steady! no gusting but steady rising winds. and there is the whistling in the trees! im not talking strong wind here! Just a steady breeze that seems to be getting slightly stronger! My cats always go out this time of night after their supper but tonight they are just sitting on the doorstep looking out!

Ok thanks,bed time it is then dont think i will miss anything lol.

goodnight hon x

[Snow and storms]

I know this sounds stupid but where can we view 18z and all the other things. I still dont understand where you guys are referring to

[Maitland]

One of the things that could be involved with a shortwave feature is the lowering of pressure, sometimes lower than the main storm itself in this case katia, heavy rain and stronger than forecast winds

Thank you for the reply. Just reading up on shortwave and longwaves now. Things are quite quiet out there at the minute. Strathallan showing windspeed 14mph with gust of 31mph, pressure 991 and rising. Forecasters telling me to expect gusts between 50 and 70mph with 80 + in exposed areas. It will be interesting tomorrow to see just how accurate the forecasts have been,

[Liam J]

Current pressure is 964mb this is some 6mb lower than the GFS 18z (972mb) shows for the same time on the model run.

Edited September 11, 2011 by Liam J

[Marie]

i have been out for a fag and the one thing i noticed was a difference in the wind! earlier we had gusts but nothing else but now i have noticed the wind is more steady! no gusting but steady rising winds. and there is the whistling in the trees! im not talking strong wind here! Just a steady breeze that seems to be getting slightly stronger! My cats always go out this time of night after their supper but tonight they are just sitting on the doorstep looking out!

goodnight hon x

Night x

Night x

I know what you mean as i have just been outside and my fence is actualy moving in the wind,dont get me wrong i know its not blowing a gale but never the less its a constant wind rather than gusts x

[snowfall09]

I know this sounds stupid but where can we view 18z and all the other things. I still dont understand where you guys are referring to

This is a link to the GFS model

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

[pyrotech]

Latest on Maria, She should become a cat 1 catergory on Wednesday.

here are the model prediction for tracks Maria could make, Only one gives a direct hit for UK

[Backtrack]

Yes SP, am keeping an eye on the spring tides, tide was coming in earlier and the high spring tide is at 2230z tomorro for liverpool. Tide was already high up the beach when I got therre and I should think it will be up to the top of the sea wall tomorro

Surely you mean Autumn tide?

[SP1986]

Winds getting more gusty now, peak gusts so far tonight 27.6mph, not much but the way it's blowing suggests it is picking up.

Edit, my window just got blown right open (worried in case it smashed against the wall).

[Liam J]

NAE 18z is bang on with the current pressure showing 966mb, and keeps a more southerly tracking and intense system as it crosses central Scotland bringing damaging winds on the southern flank - N Eng, S Scot, N Ire

I wouldn't be surprised to see some strong gusts south of Cumbria to other parts of N Eng towards N Wales.

Edited September 11, 2011 by Liam J

[loopydreamer]

woah! still alot of us viewing the forum and its getting late! i wonder how many of us will still be here at midnight?

[kmanmx]

woah! still alot of us viewing the forum and its getting late! i wonder how many of us will still be here at midnight?

Me

I dont go to bed until 6am so yeah. Though i am more a lurker than a poster, as i don't have the knowledge or expertise to contribute anything useful. I extend as far as "It's snowing/raining"

Edited September 11, 2011 by kmanmx

[peterf]

Night x

I know what you mean as i have just been outside and my fence is actualy moving in the wind,dont get me wrong i know its not blowing a gale but never the less its a constant wind rather than gusts x

night Marie,

[loopydreamer]

Me

I dont go to bed until 6am so yeah. Though i am more a lurker than a poster, as i don't have the knowledge or expertise to contribute anything useful. I extend as far as "It's snowing/raining"

me neither i just text a load of cr#p lol! i seriously think i will be up for a while yet!

[damianslaw]

I can see severe gales lasting well into tuesday for scotland. Strongest winds probably hit central and west scotland during tomorrow evening 80mph gusts in expose parts with sustained speeds of 40-50mph for many.

I'm not sure how bad it will get here.. we could just be on the southern flank of the strongest winds, a wait and see situation,but it looks a generally very wild day for places from a line north lancs to teeside northwards.

[snow raven]

Is this something more amazing than the storm of Oct 1987?

[Marie]

night Marie,

I really should go to bed lol,but i cant pull myself away from the PC ,to be honest i think i am waiting for something amazing to happen and deep down i know its not going too .

[weatherobsuk]

A random question but relevant for tomorrow. Has anyone given thought of leaving windows slightly open (east facing) due to the pressure diffirentials, as any gust that blows through would find it easier to take off a roof if the pressure drop isn't equalised. I'm not sure what kind of mb's we'd be talking about before this sort of eventuality would happen, but just something to keep in mind perhaps?