Winter 2011/12 - General Discussion

[scotty_boy_winter]

That's a great chart! I think your bang on with those areas

Here is a Snow Risk chart for friday and saturday, 9th/10th december.

most snow would be on high ground further south, the upper 850s temps are very low over Scotland for example, several inches could fall in the High risk zones, using data GFS/NAE.

[Weather-history]

Manchester Winter Index is now up to 4 after the first 8 days.

[Coast]

Here is a Snow Risk chart for friday and saturday, 9th/10th december.

Here's another!

Snowfall for 12 hrs ending Fri 09 Dec at 0am GMT

Snowfall for 12 hrs ending Sat 10 Dec at 0am GMT

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

[syed2878]

hey guys i would like to heare what you guys think of this article. also what effect would it have on our winter weather here in the u.k and europ.

The November AMO index goes negative, first time since　1996

Posted on

December 9, 2011

by

Anthony Watts

Joe D’Aleo reports via email that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) Index has gone negative for this past month.

NOVEMBER_2011_AMO

Source:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.data

This is the first time the November value has been negative since about 1996. It appears the down cycle has started. This portends a cooler period, especially

winters.

The Monthly value plot also shows the down cycle in progress, though this one is only updated to 2009:

The AMO index is correlated to air temperatures and rainfall over much of the Northern Hemisphere, in particular, North America and Europe such as North

Eastern Brazilian and African Sahel rainfall and North American and European summer climate. It is also associated with changes in the frequency of North

American droughts and is reflected in the frequency of severe Atlantic hurricanes.

Matt Vooro writes in this document:

AMO, THE KEY GLOBAL CLIMATE INDICATOR

block quote

The main climate indicator (in my opinion in the near term) is likely going to be the cool AMO, cool PDO. ENSO events and the changing polar jet stream

which swings more often now north before coming south or heading east, bringing cold air to most of North America, and specially the western half and subsequently

east, as the our climate moves from west to east.

The graph below shows the relationship between AMO and GLOBAL [ land and marine] TEMPERATURE ANOAMLIES [Hadcrut 3]. AMO appears to be like a thermostat

or predictor of global temperatures. ENSO events if moderate or strong seem to modify, amplify or over-ride the AMO effects.

quoteThere are interesting times ahead.

hey guys i would like to heare what you guys think of this article. also what effect would it have on our winter weather here in the u.k and europ.

The November AMO index goes negative, first time since　1996

Posted on

December 9, 2011

by

Anthony Watts

Joe D’Aleo reports via email that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) Index has gone negative for this past month.

NOVEMBER_2011_AMO

Source:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.data

This is the first time the November value has been negative since about 1996. It appears the down cycle has started. This portends a cooler period, especially

winters.

The Monthly value plot also shows the down cycle in progress, though this one is only updated to 2009:

The AMO index is correlated to air temperatures and rainfall over much of the Northern Hemisphere, in particular, North America and Europe such as North

Eastern Brazilian and African Sahel rainfall and North American and European summer climate. It is also associated with changes in the frequency of North

American droughts and is reflected in the frequency of severe Atlantic hurricanes.

Matt Vooro writes in this document:

AMO, THE KEY GLOBAL CLIMATE INDICATOR

block quote

The main climate indicator (in my opinion in the near term) is likely going to be the cool AMO, cool PDO. ENSO events and the changing polar jet stream

which swings more often now north before coming south or heading east, bringing cold air to most of North America, and specially the western half and subsequently

east, as the our climate moves from west to east.

The graph below shows the relationship between AMO and GLOBAL [ land and marine] TEMPERATURE ANOAMLIES [Hadcrut 3]. AMO appears to be like a thermostat

or predictor of global temperatures. ENSO events if moderate or strong seem to modify, amplify or over-ride the AMO effects.

quoteThere are interesting times ahead.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Remember that these changes are to be transitional and not 'immediate'. This month is very much on track with RJS forecast, steady as she goes with Mark Vogan too.

BFTP

steady as she goes with vogans forecast?

You are jesting of course?

[A Winter's Tale]

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=205&DAY=20111211

Another interesting forecast by Weather Online. Still seems a bit improvised but hopefully it does happen as it does suggest winter may finally arrive for us all with a potential white christmas in the north and a cold and wintry outlook from Late December into January.

[Dorsetbred]

OK, so here's the deal.

I am travelling from Dorset to Glasgow on Christmas Eve, so in preparation I've purchased:

Snow socks for the car, front wheels only

Snow shovel (collapsible)

Snow shovel large

3 bags of rock salt

Two pairs of ice grips for shoes

AND

A partridge in pear tree

Now THAT will sort winter, it wont come knowing I'm now fully prepared, and READY

Bring it on IF you dare.

Edited December 11, 2011 by Dorsetbred

[Optimus Prime]

Hot Damn! I've seen some people ramp up storms in my time but not half the forum 6 days away from the actual event. Quite remarkable.

[Tim Bland]

First few flakes of the winter for many tomorrow. More on Thursday night for the lucky ones that end up on the northern side of that low! I see the alps have got 100cm in places with another 50cm by the end of the weekend!

[AWD]

Yep, pretty much anywhere away from the far south coast could see some snowflakes tomorrow! More chance the higher up you are of course, but I wouldn't be suprised to hear about wet sleety snow stuff falling in cities like Cardiff, Wolverhampton, Birmingham, Bristol, Exeter, Swansea etc!

Another shot potentially at the weekend too, although this is subject to what route the LP takes Thursday night!

Edited December 12, 2011 by Active Weather Dude

[Eugene]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

Yuck, we have agreement across the board now of this horrible setup just in time for christmas weekend.

[Eugene]

The most worrying thing is usually you can think of several ways we could avoid such an awful setup at that kind of timeframe but it just looks a very stable evolution to me with no way out, ensembles and all models are firming up on the euro trash scenario next week could last a while too unlike most mild sectors this could go on for days and days.

[Cheshire Freeze]

The most worrying thing is usually you can think of several ways we could avoid such an awful setup at that kind of timeframe but it just looks a very stable evolution to me with no way out, ensembles and all models are firming up on the euro trash scenario next week could last a while too unlike most mild sectors this could go on for days and days.

[bluearmy]

The most worrying thing is usually you can think of several ways we could avoid such an awful setup at that kind of timeframe but it just looks a very stable evolution to me with no way out, ensembles and all models are firming up on the euro trash scenario next week could last a while too unlike most mild sectors this could go on for days and days.

The old reverse psychology Eugene eh? tbh, it doesnt look like last Xmas but I fully expect to be tramping the snow in the peak district whilst the queen delivers her speech.

[A Winter's Tale]

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm2161.gif

Yuck, we have agreement across the board now of this horrible setup just in time for christmas weekend.

You can't always have it your way all winter. Perhaps it will be better to sacrifice a mild Xmas for a legendary February. Anyway, we won't know until atleast 5 days before the big day so there's plenty of time for change. And the further north you are the more likely to have snow on Xmas Day and I believe that the jet stream may well be moving ever so slighlty further south and perhaps the possibilty of a polar maritime air mass over the UK around Xmas.

Also, I can't believe Gavin D actually likes this! Honestly, I appreciate weather in general and really it would be boring to have the same weather all the time. I just like variety and the different seasons. Come May, really for me it's time to forget about snow and think about warmth and sunshine until October where I'll be looking out for the first frosts and maybe some snow. And of course I look forward to other diffenent types of weather in the different seasons. And for me cold and snow in December is the best.

I suppose that my attitude is really: December I hope for cold and snow and a White Xmas, after December I leave the disapointment (or truimpth) of December behind and look forwards to January then February. And of course after February I would be looking forward for some Spring snow as well as the first warmth.

[La Bise]

If there is no option of cold and dry weather, I'll happily take any dry options around Christmas, I'd like to be able to spend a night or two on the hills without wondering if I'll be blown away into Russia whilst asleep in my tent...

[da_bish]

The best bet is to wake up Christmas day morning and look out of the window.

I struggle to comprehend those who say, it is going to be so and so on Christmas Day or January, when the experts cannot forecast with certainly what 'the day after tomorrow' is going to be like!

[WheresTheSnow]

First few flakes of the winter for many tomorrow. More on Thursday night for the lucky ones that end up on the northern side of that low! I see the alps have got 100cm in places with another 50cm by the end of the weekend!

Really, is that as far south as Herts that could see a few snow flakes tommorow? Are the models showing any more chance of snow this far south in the near future? Sorry to ask all these questions, I dont understand some of the things people say in the Forecast thread.

[leicsnow]

TWO forecast me HEAVY SNOW thursday night/friday morning. Hope this means Mark Vogan is looking to be right!

[Optimus Prime]

Hot Damn! I've seen some people ramp up storms in my time but not half the forum 6 days away from the actual event. Quite remarkable.

Well after being accused of being on the wind up warning people they were vastly over-exaggerating the potential for Fridays storm we are left with something with a more normal likely outcome - no severe gale.

Hope some people will learn from this and understand the complexity of forecasting these disturbances. Anything past 4 days should be taken with little or no credence.

[A Winter's Tale]

TWO forecast me HEAVY SNOW thursday night/friday morning. Hope this means Mark Vogan is looking to be right!

Sorry but No!

1) The forecast for heavy snow isn't set in stone so it could change.

2) Mark Vogan predicted a severe cold snap from Mid December right through to January; This cold snap is short and hardly severe, just normal.

3) It's RJS who is right as he back in October and again in November who really predicted this cold snap during the exact time frame which is quite astonishing.

I do respect Mark Vogan as a forecaster and he got the start of December fairly accurate but I think his cold spell for December was a bit of improvisation. I've also got a feeling that Simon Keeling's Blocking Scenario for Christmas won't happen as he predicts a cold, but dry Xmas.

There's also some mad forecast regarding a Siberian blast between the 21st of December and lasting throughout the Xmas period. That forecast is based on the planets and gravity (or whatever) but I think that will be wrong aswell. Jame Madden on the other hand, predicted widespread heavy snow (particulary in the NE) and record breaking cold temperatures throughout November, December, January and February. The result was: A very mild November and a December that has seen some cool-cold temperatures at times and some heavy snow restricted to the North West.

If I were you, the forecaster I'd be keeping an eye on or supporting is the forecast by RJS. He has been incredibly accurate so far this December which is so far one of the most accurate Long Range Forecasts I've ever seen. The period between the 24th December and 27th is crucial in a forecast if correct, that would result in a winter to remember with an incredible cold spell in Late January and early February with the worst of the cold and snow in the South.

However if the events around late December don't exactly go to plan, then that really isn't a problem as most people are predicting a SSW a little later than late December so there's still plenty of time left for the cold weather later in the winter to happen.

[leicsnow]

@AWT

Yeah, I was just rather excited when the latest 6-hour update for my location by TWO forecasted the heavy snow. It's now changed to some light snow/insignificant whatever. Anyway, thanks for the info, but would you mind posting a link to the forecast by RJS? As I'm relatively new here and aren't familiar thanks.

[damianslaw]

Winter 11/12 is looking like a far more traditional winter with the core cold reserved for January and February and not December as we saw last year.

Indeed for me winter 10/11 felt like it ended on the 27th Dec - yes we had a relatively chilly january but it was hardly a snow freeze fest and february brought persistant benign mild weather.

I'm confident that we will see a lengthy spell of decent wintry weather at some point after New Year which is why I am not overly concerned at the lack of any immediate deep freeze or snowfest. The christmas period is often a very pivotal one for the winter as a whole - it tends to be the period when the northern hemisphere 'settles' down into its proper winter state and when likely patterns for the remainder of the winter become more obvious. I always say winter rarely gets going proper until christmas or just after.. the last three years have muddied the water somewhat meaning many have forgotton on average how our winters often pan out.. i.e. Jan and Feb are far more likely to deliver cold and snow than december.

[A Winter's Tale]

@AWT

Yeah, I was just rather excited when the latest 6-hour update for my location by TWO forecasted the heavy snow. It's now changed to some light snow/insignificant whatever. Anyway, thanks for the info, but would you mind posting a link to the forecast by RJS? As I'm relatively new here and aren't familiar thanks.

See the winter forecast thread. It's on the very first page as a quote. And his update, well I quoted it either on the most recent page or the one before.

[A Winter's Tale]

Winter 11/12 is looking like a far more traditional winter with the core cold reserved for January and February and not December as we saw last year.

Indeed for me winter 10/11 felt like it ended on the 27th Dec - yes we had a relatively chilly january but it was hardly a snow freeze fest and february brought persistant benign mild weather.

I'm confident that we will see a lengthy spell of decent wintry weather at some point after New Year which is why I am not overly concerned at the lack of any immediate deep freeze or snowfest. The christmas period is often a very pivotal one for the winter as a whole - it tends to be the period when the northern hemisphere 'settles' down into its proper winter state and when likely patterns for the remainder of the winter become more obvious. I always say winter rarely gets going proper until christmas or just after.. the last three years have muddied the water somewhat meaning many have forgotton on average how our winters often pan out.. i.e. Jan and Feb are far more likely to deliver cold and snow than december.

Hmmmm. I sort of agree about your point about winter really starts from Xmas onwards. But I think with this month and January/ February this year it's been a different story in other parts of the UK. I'm not entirely sure what a normal December is but really even some or even most of the winters in the naughties and nineties we would have a decent amount of snow days and snow depths. Just look at the amount of white xmases we've had. And for me, I'd love to see the type of snowy scenes and atmosphere portrayed by cards, adverts, films, dickens with a long lasting cold spell with snow on the ground for a while and some snowfall (just like last winter and the year before) or a December that sees either a decent cold spell with snow on the ground for a while (preferably around Xmas - December 2000 for example) or a December that sees regular and decent cold interludes with some lying snow (December 1999).

But what I find unusal about this month is the amount of snow days so far as I'm only one day short of equalling last December. And a decent freeze in January and February could set us on the way to beating last winter. However, we've still got a month of winter to complete and a white xmas to try and bag first!