The Winter 2011/12 Forecast Thread

[summer blizzard]

The Met Office BBQ summer was correctly presented and how bad was that forecast!!!

If you were referring to summer 2009 then actually the Met Office forecast above average temperatures correctly, it was the rainfall and the fact that July was cool which caused the storm to rain down on them Summer 2009 was actually an above average temperature summer though.

[Aaron]

But the Met Office did actually say 'BBQ Summer', but temperatures weren't that above average, certainly not a BBQ summer.

[johnholmes]

But the Met Office did actually say 'BBQ Summer', but temperatures weren't that above average, certainly not a BBQ summer.

Can we move forward please and discuss the thread title and stop giving individual views on what happened 2 years ago?

thanks

[TEITS]

If you were referring to summer 2009 then actually the Met Office forecast above average temperatures correctly, it was the rainfall and the fact that July was cool which caused the storm to rain down on them Summer 2009 was actually an above average temperature summer though.

The summer of 2009 was only above average due to the unsettled weather pattern resulting in frequent cloud cover overnight which kept min temps much higher.

[johnholmes]

Can we move forward please and discuss the thread title and stop giving individual views on what happened 2 years ago?

thanks

is there any hope of this getting back on track folks-PLEASE?

[Aaron]

Can we move forward please and discuss the thread title and stop giving individual views on what happened 2 years ago?

thanks

What is there to discuss?

[johnholmes]

What is there to discuss?

the clue is in the title mate-

[Summer Sun]

the clue is in the title mate-

I think he means more in terms of this mild weather because there is nothing cold in sight there is nothing to talk about, maybe by December we could be talking about records been broken for the mild weather you never know.

[November13]

Looked at old records

Today it was 17.4c in Pomont

Record for November is 20c:

November 20.2 °C 7 November 2003 Lochcarron (Ross & Cromarty)

[IanM]

It's still a winter forecast thread, and mild weather can be forecast in the winter. Summer 2009 on the other hand isn't winter 2011/12...

[November13]

It's still a winter forecast thread, and mild weather can be forecast in the winter. Summer 2009 on the other hand isn't winter 2011/12...

Youv'e lost me guvner!

[johnholmes]

It's still a winter forecast thread, and mild weather can be forecast in the winter. Summer 2009 on the other hand isn't winter 2011/12...

I think we have to give up Ian!

[La Bise]

Re GP comments on the Model thread...Is the outlook for December mild as in repeat and rinse of the current November synoptics or do we switch to a more zonal setup. To me it seems we stay in the situation of being piggy in the middle but...

[summer blizzard]

A more zonal winter setup would likely still be mild anyway, just with the option a few polar maritime incursions thrown in.

I would personally prefer to keep the setup we have now as we can pick up greater inversions.

[La Bise]

Oh same here, I do not want a zonal setup, the current setup can always lead to inversions which are lovely rather than mild rain and wind which leads to nothing but more mild rain and wind (pm incursions are pointless most of the times unless you fancy a bracing hill walk in a snow storm,which can be fun...)

[Les Penniston]

Looked at old records

Today it was 17.4c in Pomont

Record for November is 20c:

November 20.2 °C 7 November 2003 Lochcarron (Ross & Cromarty)

Sometimes the winters you remember well have all had very mild days.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Youv'e lost me guvner!

It is not too difficult. This thread is about peoples individual LRFs for winter.

This means that the object of the thread is to discuss these forecasts and what people think will occur this winter...mild or cold.

Summer 2009 has nothing to do with this coming winter.

[Aaron]

People are just discussing the Met Office's track record since they think a cold winter is unlikely, that's not a crime is it? I mean seriously, people need to stop getting touchy over the slightest bit of off-topic discussion!

the clue is in the title mate-

Nobody at all is posting their LRF's, so what do we discuss, nothing at all?

Edited November 11, 2011 by Aaron

[chionomaniac]

People are just discussing the Met Office's track record since they think a cold winter is unlikely, that's not a crime is it? I mean seriously, people need to stop getting touchy over the slightest bit of off-topic discussion!

Nobody at all is posting their LRF's, so what do we discuss, nothing at all?

Yes is the answer to that question.

And go and discuss the met office track in another relevant section. When reviewing this topic at the end of winter nobody wants to troll through pages of irrelevence.

[garbagebags]

Hi, I'm new here. You might have seen me on the DM forum. I have no real knowledge of meteorology so wont insult you with a "forecast" but I hope its another 62/63.

[gottolovethisweather]

Hi, I'm new here. You might have seen me on the DM forum. I have no real knowledge of meteorology so wont insult you with a "forecast" but I hope its another 62/63.

Welcome Mr/Mrs/Ms garbagebags.

You will find these forums are a wealth of knowledge in your quest to learn all about the fascinating science of meteorlogy.

There's a learners area, model output discussion section, general chat etc.

Just one request, please can provide your location on your profile page, Thankyou kindly.

One last thing, try not to make too many OT posts, just like the one I'm typing now. It can get quite nasty quite quickly then.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

PS! no idea about winter at this stage and if I was to guess, I'm expecting a more mixed one of late.

Edited November 11, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[summer blizzard]

Yes is the answer to that question.

And go and discuss the met office track in another relevant section. When reviewing this topic at the end of winter nobody wants to troll through pages of irrelevence.

The problem is that a lot of this discussion should be in the general winter thread.

Can't be helped at peak season though really.

[Heisenberg]

Looking better in the recent runs. Not great, but better than the mild muck we have been getting.....

[Iceberg]

This is not a forecast as I simply don't have the skill for that, more a collection on thoughts and agency forecasts.

Whilst taking a look at the new ECM seasonal forecast system (system 4) that was I believe released yesterday I thought it might be interesting to compare what little info the ECM make available to the public with the NCEP and NetW prelim thoughts.

ECM also produce the eurosip winter forecasts and we also have the CFS V1 and V2 variability so lots of little tweaking of data.

Firstly ENSO.

CFS V2 is by far the most agressive with La Nina brings in a DJF avg of -1.5K, CFS V1 slightly less os at -1.3K, ECM sys 4 and eurosip at -1.1K

Unsurprisingly they all agree on a typical La Nina set up, however sys 4 is probably the most extreme with some above average warm and dry weather for the southern USA states, it also has the strongest ridge in the north pacific and keeps everything further west than the CFS.

This brings be onto my only conclusions.

The CFS is being too pregressive and agressive with the La Nina, I also don't think it has a very good handle yet on the upstream set up for N.America. Its got the generally right idea but not the amplication and set up.

For me this brings the Euro models in very good agreement with the NETW initial thoughts, with maybe even more possibility that the cold weather delayed for Jan/Feb might have an improved chance of getting to us in Dec.

Anyway regardless of this things are happening in the OLR and 200hpa equatorial anomalies...

[Bristawl Si]

I know i'm a couple of days behind 'the curve' here but i've just read the netweather winter forecast update and if you're a cold & snow lover it looks pants!

In fact, the forecast is a bit of a 'boring' one - looks like a fairly mundane UK winter coming up - not surprising taking a 'law of averages' viewpoint, as the last 3 winters we had some cold and v cold periods with decent snow events.