The Winter 2011/12 Forecast Thread

[johnholmes]

This is not a forecast as I simply don't have the skill for that, more a collection on thoughts and agency forecasts.

I think you are doing yourself a dis-service there Ice.

That is a pretty good post in my view showing the probabilities from various centres with the result to be found out on 1 March.

I think you do yourself down there Ice, its a pretty good summing up of various agencies with aI

Edited November 12, 2011 by johnholmes

[La Bise]

I agree, good meta-analysis there Iceberg. It's exactly the way I look at things myself, not having the skills to do so myself. It certainly gives me a better idea who is day-dreaming and who is onto something when it comes to LRF.

[Summer Sun]

The CFS charts continue to be good for those wanting a mild winter,

3 Monthly

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbSea.gif

Monthly

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

Anomaly Charts

3 Monthly

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mSea.gif

Monthly

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mMon.gif

[Hughsey]

I suppose the lack of posts in here shows the lack of things to discuss of interest at the moment.

The GFS 12Z looks better though, deep FL shows some cold around the 21st, and then another one from the 27th. They look to bring colder than current temperatures, nothing major but something more of interest. Obviously these charts are in FL but something that could develop into something of more interest and so worth keeping an eye on.

[cyclonic happiness]

I suppose the lack of posts in here shows the lack of things to discuss of interest at the moment.

The GFS 12Z looks better though, deep FL shows some cold around the 21st, and then another one from the 27th. They look to bring colder than current temperatures, nothing major but something more of interest. Obviously these charts are in FL but something that could develop into something of more interest and so worth keeping an eye on.

I hate pedants, but it's ....'F.I. fantasy island'.

I'm hopeful that we will get a good cold spell soon, we all know that the models tend to back right away from the colder outputs only jump back on them after a few days...time will tell!

[A Winter's Tale]

Time will tell indeed. I just hope we use up all of this mild, boring weather right now to result in a colder than average winter (even if December starts mild). I'd like to know what is the likely pattern to suceed the current one, how long it will last and the chances of cold and snow after it. Hopefully this horrific pattern will end in December and result in a good cold spell around Christmas. However on the other hand we could have a complete Autumn and December with no cold and of course no snow.

[SLEETY]

Fadden still sticking to his guns I see

"I am fully expecting a significant and imminent pattern change, that will result in a dominantly negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) for the upcoming winter. The negative NAO and AO will allow cold air and snow to plunge into Europe and the UK, and weaken the polar vortex (something to keep an important eye on, over the coming weeks). This does not mean immediate snow and cold by any means, but it certainly improves the outlook for frequent cold and above normal snow across many parts of the UK, as we head into the final third of November and much of December. Some of these pattern changes are slightly later than anticipated, and even though it is difficult to believe with the unseasonably mild weather we have been experiencing (which I underestimated), I have very high confidence that we will shortly be entering a gradual cooling trend, that will bring frequent cold and widespread heavy snowfall across many parts of the UK.

As I stated in my last update and many others, I fully expect the blocking to be more sustained this winter in comparison to the 2010/11 winter. It is therefore a logical conclusion that a more sustained blocking pattern, could result in temperature or snowfall records being broken within that defined time frame, or for the winter as a whole.

One final note, I certainly never said anything about WIDESPREAD heavy snowfall in October, or Siberian temperatures to hit us in weeks. These are headlines to grab your attention, the quotes within the articles from myself read somewhat differently. Although I am very grateful to the Daily Express who have sufficiently raised enough awareness of another cold and snowy winter.

The final and big question on the cards is 'WILL IT SNOW' ?

My answer: YES, and it will be widespread across many parts of the UK.

You also have the defined time frame from myself, as you have done since very early this year."

UK Meteorological winter 2011/12

December 2011

Below average temperatures and heavy snowfall is likely across many parts of the UK.

January 2012

Below average temperatures and heavy snowfall is likely across many parts of the UK

February 2012

Below average temperatures and moderate to heavy snowfall is likely across parts/many parts of the UK

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

ExactaWeather.com

Published: 8th November 2011 (22:09) GMT

[Coast]

Here's a Winter 2011/2012 forecast I have just picked out from Richard Crabtree (I'm not sure who he is) and dated July this year. He uses the Moon phases as his primer driver - it is quite detailed and specific so not reproduced here, try the link:

Part 1…Introduction

Before I proceed with the main content……………..

PART OR MY ENTIRE FORECAST COULD TURN OUT TO BE “WELL OFF THE MARK!!!â€

Note……….My forecast is primarily constructed by the analysis of the Moons declinations and phases over the following 9 months…………Also, the transit of Mercury over the following 9 months is also taken into consideration along with the monthly squares between the Moon and Uranus / Saturn………the position of certain other cosmic bodies over the following 9 months have also been taken into account

The eruptions of volcanoes in 2010 and all those up to the time of writing - July 2011 - have also been taken into consideration.

Eruptions taking place after this forecast is posted will only serve to make any cooling throughout the winter of 2011 / 2012 far more evident.

My monthly “snapshots†and general overview can be seen towards the end of this article – Part 3…The “snapshots†will run from September 2011 through to March 2012

The “snapshots†have been formulated with the analysis of Moon declinations and phases only!

The overview takes into account all of the other phenomena as seen above!

Some suggestions concerning other parts of the northern-hemisphere will be included in the forecast.

https://sites.google...ecast-2011-2012

[snow drift]

Here's a Winter 2011/2012 forecast I have just picked out from Richard Crabtree (I'm not sure who he is) and dated July this year. He uses the Moon phases as his primer driver - it is quite detailed and specific so not reproduced here, try the link:

https://sites.google...ecast-2011-2012

Avery interesting read. He isn't of to a good start but I admire anyone who has ago at forecasting and have an open mind to various methods to do so.

[shedhead]

Here's a Winter 2011/2012 forecast I have just picked out from Richard Crabtree (I'm not sure who he is) and dated July this year. He uses the Moon phases as his primer driver - it is quite detailed and specific so not reproduced here, try the link:

https://sites.google...ecast-2011-2012

Ummmm, sincerely hope he's right, but to be fair he's not exactly off to a flyer is he....

(2)……I suggest that a general and rapid cooling trend will begin on or around Monday September 12^th 2011, with frosts, then continuing the trend into October and beyond

(3)……I suggest that the early stages of winter 2011 / 2012 will begin in a similar fashion to that of 2010 / 2011, i.e., November will show its “teeth†of winter - only earlier than the November 22^nd blast of last year

(……I suggest that the winter proper of 2011 / 2012 could well begin as early as late September or October 2011…….The potential that this could occur is quite high according to my own research and analysis.

Edited November 14, 2011 by shedhead

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Ummmm, sincerely hope he's right, but to be fair he's not exactly off to a flyer is he....

(2)……I suggest that a general and rapid cooling trend will begin on or around Monday September 12^th 2011, with frosts, then continuing the trend into October and beyond

(3)……I suggest that the early stages of winter 2011 / 2012 will begin in a similar fashion to that of 2010 / 2011, i.e., November will show its “teeth†of winter - only earlier than the November 22^nd blast of last year

LOL, off to a flyer is a understatement.

[Coast]

I have to admit I thought it was brave to be that specific way back in July. But I guess if you are using cycles that repeat and you feel confident in your method, than that may work for you - or not......

Anyhoo, I'm still on the lookout for Winter 2011/20122 forecasts for the UK just to compare, contrast and add to the debate.

[Snowangel-MK]

Mmm, I can't help wondering if this FET (forecast excuse technique) might come in handy for someone who stuck their neck on the line so early !!

My forecast was wrong because the

A.__________B.__________C._________ was miscalculated or overlooked.

(Insert a word from each list into the appropriate spaces)

A

integrated

pseudo

dynamic

potential

diurnal

stratospheric

cumulative

absolute

conditional

B

thermal

vorticity

solenoidal

molecular

balance

orographic

turbulent

solar

inertial

rotational

trajectory

vapor

C

equilibrium

transfer

stratification

field

correlation

discontinuity

function

advection

Edited November 14, 2011 by MKsnowangel

[Guest]

I don't know, I'm getting the impression that it is going to turn fairly mild at least for the first part of the winter but cheer up you snow lovers, remember 1946/7:)

[ZONE 51]

November - mid month i predict a settled period with colder air and with some frost and fog at night in many regions with high pressure, there is an increasing risk of a colder more wintry development towards the later november period from the north and then a northeasterly flow. i do not expect substantial snow or severe cold, an Atlantic block setting up (atlantic high pressure) during this period, it is possible that we see the lows from the west moving in for a while at the end of the month. ESS

I had said in my forecast about the november cold wintry snap was a risk, and the cold and snow as we move through december, i think my forecast is going ok, im pleased i got high pressure right, and its difficult to see the placement of these.

December - after a milder and rainy start high pressure builds and leads us into cold and frosty conditions, i expect this to be a colder high with severe frosts, eventually snowfall becomes widespread from the northeast as the high pressure cells move into the right setup to pull down a cold air flow as we move into the mid month period, i expect a significant spell of snowfall during this period with a risk that it could turn severe, but at this stage i can say cold with snow showers but how severe we wont know until nearer the time, but the risk is there. many heavy snow showers blown in from the north/northeast, these conditions lasting most of the month with it being cold dry at times,.

I did expect some low pressures to move across with mild air and possibly a storm, but now i see the increasing chances that cold and mostly drier conditions will result. ESS

The november wintry risk is becoming less a risk as we move through, i still see the chance of a colder maybe wintry spell for northern hills as we bring down colder air with low pressure, but that keeps changing. its a battle of the models, one wants high one wants atlantic lows, its really strange! large scale signals indicate that it will turn cold in the next few weeks and this is when snow is likely, the thing is the models cant keep to one idea! take abig jigsaw puzzle and when you make it you see what is there, that is teleconnections and up stream signals and then a forecast is created, the short range models move around pieces of that puzzle as we enter the forecast period, and they may or may not fall into the places of where you expect them to. imagine this, if a lrf was going to be 100% accurate then would the short-range models still move around those pieces of the puzzle? yes i think they would and thats my point, the models will always be showing differences on each run and each model, looking for what is repeated on the models is the best way to do it. if say GFS keeps showing a cold snap on the 21st, then if it shows over the runs then it makes it more likely to happen.

Edited November 16, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Snowangel-MK]

Maybe we will get a repeat of the winter of 1962-63, that was a late starter.... and then it snowed somewhere in the UK every day from Boxing Day, 1962, until 6 March, 1963.

http://www.paraffinw...k/63winter.html

[Guest]

Maybe we will get a repeat of the winter of 1962-63, that was a late starter.... and then it snowed somewhere in the UK every day from Boxing Day, 1962, until 6 March, 1963.

http://www.paraffinw...k/63winter.html

In fact it was not that late in starting - there were some quite sharp frosts and a period of freezing fog in December '62 in the Heathrow area.

[penicuikblizz]

What were conditions like in Nov and early Dec 1962 blocked and mild???

[Guest]

What were conditions like in Nov and early Dec 1962 blocked and mild???

If my memory serves me correctly they were blocked for a time and mostly cold hence the freezing fog and frost but there were westerly incursions as well - you should be able to get the charts from the netweather archives section. I think that Nov that year was fairly mild.

[summer blizzard]

Maybe we will get a repeat of the winter of 1962-63, that was a late starter.... and then it snowed somewhere in the UK every day from Boxing Day, 1962, until 6 March, 1963.

http://www.paraffinw...k/63winter.html

Both November and December 1962 were below average, the snowfest may have been late in starting but the cold actually was'nt.

[Coast]

The winter of 1962-63 had started unremarkably enough, with a dusting of snow on 20th November followed by milder weather at the end of the month. The first days of December saw temperatures below freezing all day, despite the sunshine, followed by thick, often freezing, fog from the 3rd - 6th. The effect on the trees was to cover them all with 'a wonderful frosting'.

As Christmas approached there was nothing particularly untoward about the weather, some rain, a gale or two, but come Boxing Day, 26th December, all that was to change when the first heavy snow fell in the afternoon. It snowed again every day until the 29th December when blizzards were forecast. The local council drivers were kept busy salting the roads and, overnight, snow drifts of up to 3 feet (90cm) accumulated around the town. Car travel was beginning to be difficult and longer journeys were postponed in the hope that the weather would clear,

http://www.thamesweb...y/freeze63.html

Synoptic Situation at 0600 29/11/1962:

High over British Isles has now declined to 1030mb by 0600, but still extends from SW of Iceland to SE Europe. Stationary low, 300 miles west of Portugal has deepened to 996mb. Stationary low, 1011mb, just west of Italy, is deepening. Low moving ESE from SE Iceland to be off Norway by 0600, central pressure 1002mb. Its associated cold front is moving south over Scotland and its warm front is moving east towards Scandinavia.

Weather in British Isles:

Generally calm conditions prevail, except in N. Scotland where a moderate NW wind developed. Fog lingered in parts of southern England until the afternoon and drizzle affected NW areas of England and SW Scotland. More general rain moved south over the northern half of Scotland with the wettest place being Lerwick with 5mm. Maximum temperatures were typically 7-8C over most of England, rising to 9-10C in NW Scotland and 11C at Malin Head. Gatwick 7C, Birmingham 7C, Cardiff 7C, Manchester 7C, Newcastle 9C, Glasgow 10C, Wick 9C, Lerwick 7C and Tiree 10C

The only sunshine recorded was in NE England and SE Scotland - Newcastle 2.4 hours and Leuchars 2.6 hours. Minimum temperatures were about 5C over much of central and southern England, Wales and Ireland, rising to 9C in Tiree. There were no reports of frost,

air or ground. Gatwick 5C, Birmingham 5C, Cardiff 5C, Manchester 6C, Newcastle 7C, Glasgow 7C, Wick 5C and Stornoway 6C

Weather in rest of Europe:

The large anticyclone resulted in calm and often foggy conditions for central and southern areas. Rain followed by rain/snow showers moved SE across Scandinavia. Maximum temperatures were around 2 to 6C over much of southern and central Europe: Berlin 6, Warsaw 3, Moscow 2, Brussels 7, Paris 6 and Madrid 9C. Many parts of Scandinavia stayed just below zero in the polar airstream. Minimum temperatures were just below zero over much of inland Iberia, France and Germany, rising to 5 or 6C over the Low Countries and northern Poland, falling below zero over non-coastal areas of Scandinavia. Precipitation was confined to the central Mediterranean and the frontal zone stretching from S.Norway into Russia, but amounts were small.

http://myweb.tiscali.../29Nov-1962.htm

Chart for 1st December 1962:

But that was then!!! :winky:

[Heisenberg]

Hello lovely people. Can someone tell me why (specifically on the mod thread), that when the models show cold in FI, everyone says "oh they wont verify", but when its showing mild muck, they all buy into it, hook, line and sinker?? Its just a little bug bear of mine.

The models seems to be showing some crumbs of promise in FI, but everyone shuts it down and gets on the " this mild air looks set to stay past Christmas". Why believe the models that far out for mild, but not for cold?

Just curious.

[Coast]

Just curious.

It doesn't always work that way, we have the same situation in reverse as well at times. I think it's a kind of reverse physcology, if you say the cold and snow won't come, then secretly it might! :lol:

[Heisenberg]

It doesn't always work that way, we have the same situation in reverse as well at times. I think it's a kind of reverse physcology, if you say the cold and snow won't come, then secretly it might! :lol:

Hehe, yea ok, fair enough. Well secretly im hoping that too....shhh dont tell anyone.

[shedhead]

Just love the way the old 62/63 thing gets trotted out every Autumn/early Winter, reminding us yet again (as if we could have actually forgotten) that the cold spell didn't start in earnest until Boxing Day, or was it New Years Day, or Good Friday??

Edited November 16, 2011 by shedhead