The Winter 2011/12 Forecast Thread

[johnholmes]

Read the posts will you, what on earth are you posting a chart for tomorrow for? :blink:

BFTP

a bit harsh mate-he only asked?

[Weather-history]

a bit harsh mate-he only asked?

It depends how you read the post, John, Was November 13 referring to that particular chart and asking if this was a cold chart?

Or was he using that chart as evidence to support his point of little evidence of cold for later in November? November 13 does say "I have seen no evidence with half a dozen charts and half a dozen different forecasts"

I have to admit I took it as the latter. EDIT: Infact. I'm pretty sure it is the latter in which case it is a bit ridiculous to use a chart for the next day for evidence for 2 weeks time.

Edited November 8, 2011 by Mr_Data

[Radiating Dendrite]

It depends how you read the post, John, Was November 13 referring to that particular chart and asking if this was a cold chart? Or was he using that chart as evidence to support his point of little veidence of cold for later in November?

I have to admit I took it as the latter.

Yep, so did I.

BFTP has never said it would be cold in the immediate future (but towards the end of the month).

Arguing that he is wrong by posting a chart for the next day is.......erm.......wrong

[Hughsey]

It depends how cold you want to go. GFS and ECWMF would both deliver inversions so a fairly good chance of frost.

Yeah it looks colder on them, but nothing of an extreme nature.

Hughsey

Some of us use solar and lunar driven cycles and influences [magnetic influences] RJS uses Planetary magnetic field affects. Thet are alternative methods and suggest that teleconnections and synoptic patterns respond to these.

BFTP

I think it's called wishfull thinking! I have seen no evidence with half a dozen charts and half a dozen different forecasts.

hi

Most of those predicting the probability of a cold end to the month are not really doing so on the GFS output alone, indeed much of it is not connected with that at all. To get an idea of how the weather might be in more than 5-10 days ahead one has to use things called teleconnections which you have probably seen their term used on here and also in the technical thread.

Paramters such as 500mb anomaly charts, AO, NAO, MJO etc etc.

Have a look in the Net Wx Guides section there is a reasonable explanation of what the terms mean and some idea of how they are used.

As to a prob of it turning cold? A week ago I would have not given it much credence, maybe 15-20%, its a week closer and some of those tc's are still pointing in that direction, so I'd up it to nearly 50% and rising.

hope that helps a bit. Pm me if you wish, always happy to try and help or suggest someone who would be better at it than me.

Thanks, good to get some opinions on it. I know the GFS is just one of the models but it is the only one I can particularly understand haha. I think I will leave the complicated forecasting to you guys and just hope for some nice winter weather

[ZONE 51]

56 (2 weeks worth) more GFS runs and it would proberly be showing what is likely at the end of the month..

it does 4 a day and can change through the days.

Signals come in long before what is shown on the models, GFS-for example, then nearer the time the models start to indicate this, even if a model is showing mild southerly air flows for 2 weeks time then that does not mean it is certain.

what we wait for is what has been signalled quite some time ago, this being what we expect to evolve, then we wait for it to be shown.

Edited November 9, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[shedhead]

For those interested, Madden has updated.... http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

Appears to be getting a bit teezy over the grief he's recieving about Oct/Nov, but for those who can't be bothered to read it he's essentially staying on message for Winter.

[Coast]

Interesting thoughts from the Germans (translated into English by Google)

Weather in winter 2011/2012 - Weather forecast of 9 November

In the last few days we have again increased e-mails received with questions such as: When is the snow? Can you even make a snow forecast? . Almost seems as though many now in a frenzy of winter and the snow against what our winter 2011/2012 survey shows.

Most likely it is to the present time that the weather situation around the 17th/18th. November is going to change around. Both weather models expect a large accumulation of cold air north of the Arctic Circle - Experience shows that it is only a matter of time until it finds its way to the south. Whether Germany will then be affected, to the present state can not be said, but there are already trends and probabilities. The U.S. weather model anticipates a moderate form of the temperature drop on november typical values ​​between 2 and 5 degrees from 20 Of November. The European weather model calculated from 19November with a more typical winter constellation (between Greenland and Scandinavia, high, low pressure east of Scandinavia), which enables the transport of cold air southward. If the scenario of the European weather model to arrive, with the first onset of winter around the 19th Expected around November. The view of the control runs indicates that a significantly cooler phase is significantly more likely than a continuation of the mild phase. The odds are still not bad for the first snow in the last November third.

http://www.wetterpro...-2011-2012.html

[shedhead]

Interesting thoughts from the Germans (translated into English by Google)

http://www.wetterpro...-2011-2012.html

You missed this bit off the end....

All the best

Herr Madden....

Edited November 9, 2011 by shedhead

[phil nw.]

For those interested, Madden has updated.... http://www.exactawea...e_Forecast.html

Appears to be getting a bit teezy over the grief he's recieving about Oct/Nov, but for those who can't be bothered to read it he's essentially staying on message for Winter.

I don`t know anything about his background but is he a qualified meteorologist or scientist?

It`s just that this quote had me wondering

"The negative NAO and AO will allow cold air and snow to plunge into Europe and the UK, and weaken the polar vortex "

taken from his forecast.

It reads like the NAO and AO state lead the way and weaken the vortex.

As anyone with some idea knows the NAO and AO are just barometric pressure indeces and it`s the strength of the vortex that has the influence on those.

Maybe i am nitpicking and he has worded it this way for the layman-it just doesn`t impress me.

[chionomaniac]

I don`t know anything about his background but is he a qualified meteorologist or scientist?

It`s just that this quote had me wondering

"The negative NAO and AO will allow cold air and snow to plunge into Europe and the UK, and weaken the polar vortex "

taken from his forecast.

It reads like the NAO and AO state lead the way and weaken the vortex.

As anyone with some idea knows the NAO and AO are just barometric pressure indeces and it`s the strength of the vortex that has the influence on those.

Maybe i am nitpicking and he has worded it this way for the layman-it just doesn`t impress me.

You're right Phil.

I think he is a lorry driver - or am I confusing him with someone else?

[phil nw.]

You're right Phil.

I think he is a lorry driver - or am I confusing him with someone else?

Lol,yes perhaps he transports for the Iceland supermarket chain.

[chionomaniac]

Lol,yes perhaps he transports for the Iceland supermarket chain.

Yes - It's always winter in the back of the truck!

[shedhead]

I don`t know anything about his background but is he a qualified meteorologist or scientist?

It`s just that this quote had me wondering

"The negative NAO and AO will allow cold air and snow to plunge into Europe and the UK, and weaken the polar vortex "

taken from his forecast.

It reads like the NAO and AO state lead the way and weaken the vortex.

As anyone with some idea knows the NAO and AO are just barometric pressure indeces and it`s the strength of the vortex that has the influence on those.

Maybe i am nitpicking and he has worded it this way for the layman-it just doesn`t impress me.

Other parts of it make little sense or are contradictory to be honest Phil i.e 'The negative NAO and AO will allow cold air and snow to plunge into Europe and the UK' followed almost immediately by 'I have very high confidence that we will shortly be entering a gradual cooling trend, - which is it, a sudden plunge or a gradual trickle? Again as you say, perhaps we are simply knit picking over stuff like this, but like you I quickly lose confidence in anything that is not correctly presented.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Other parts of it make little sense or are contradictory to be honest Phil i.e 'The negative NAO and AO will allow cold air and snow to plunge into Europe and the UK' followed almost immediately by 'I have very high confidence that we will shortly be entering a gradual cooling trend, - which is it, a sudden plunge or a gradual trickle? Again as you say, perhaps we are simply knit picking over stuff like this, but like you I quickly lose confidence in anything that is not correctly presented.

To be fair we are in a gradual cooling trend........towards winter!

I have always found his forecasting skill to be questionable. What gets me about these people, Madden, Corbyn etc is that they do not take the time to explain the logic behind the forecast and the variables that they are looking at (method).

Although he has been wrong in the recent past (bit of a blip though) I always find that GP explains his forecasts well and is not scared to share his methods, just a shame some more of his contemporaries do not do this!

[penicuikblizz]

The Met Office BBQ summer was correctly presented and how bad was that forecast!!!

[Radiating Dendrite]

The Met Office BBQ summer was correctly presented and how bad was that forecast!!!

I am not saying it leads to a forecast being correct!!! Hence what I said about GP and his summer forecast.

I just appreciate the forecaster taking the time to outline his method and why he thinks what he thinks.

I do wonder when the BBQ forecast by the Met Office will ever be forgotten......will people still be using it in 20 years?

I can just picture it...........the met office is predicting a warm winter for 2025/2026........."that is rubbish, remember their BBQ forecast"!!

[phil nw.]

Other parts of it make little sense or are contradictory to be honest Phil i.e 'The negative NAO and AO will allow cold air and snow to plunge into Europe and the UK' followed almost immediately by 'I have very high confidence that we will shortly be entering a gradual cooling trend, - which is it, a sudden plunge or a gradual trickle? Again as you say, perhaps we are simply knit picking over stuff like this, but like you I quickly lose confidence in anything that is not correctly presented.

Absolutely,

If he wants to be taken seriously as a weather forecaster then he must look at the way he presents his views.

I think anybody with a basic understanding of weather would give him more credence if the author has given good imput,ie the basis for his forecast and when using such Met. terminology such as NAO,AO etc.it`s presented correctly.

He runs a Weather site and thereby presents himself as some sort of expert.

Just throwing such terminology together without explaining how and why these influence patterns is just not good enough imo.

Edited November 9, 2011 by phil n.warks.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Absolutely,

If he wants to be taken seriously as a weather forecaster then he must look at the way he presents his views.

I think anybody with an a basic understanding of weather would give him more credence if the author has given good imput,ie the basis for his forecast and when using such Met. terminology such as NAO,AO etc.it`s presented correctly.

He runs a Weather site and thereby presents himself as some sort of expert.

Just throwing such terminology together without explaining how and why these influence patterns is just not good enough imo.

Do you think that anyone could set up a reasonable looking weather website and then have the influence that they have (without having any met quals)?

[shedhead]

Absolutely,

If he wants to be taken seriously as a weather forecaster then he must look at the way he presents his views.

I think anybody with an a basic understanding of weather would give him more credence if the author has given good imput,ie the basis for his forecast and when using such Met. terminology such as NAO,AO etc.it`s presented correctly.

He runs a Weather site and thereby presents himself as some sort of expert.

Just throwing such terminology together without explaining how and why these influence patterns is just not good enough imo.

Agreed - like Corbyn he would almost certainly be convicted by a jury of his peers (no pun intended in the case of Corbyn... ), but as far as 99.9% of people that follow him are concerned, the kind of stuff that troubles us is not even worthy of consideration. As I said yesterday in the Corbyn thread, there is no skill in flooding the media with a sensationalist forecast, but there most certainly is skill in avoiding any critisism whatsoever when it goes hideously wrong. Madden I feel will ultimately prove to be as teflon coated as Corbyn, simply because of the lack of professional accountablility that surrounds the field in which they operate. I'm sure the MO would love to be afforded such slack!

Edited November 9, 2011 by shedhead

[A Winter's Tale]

AWT FINAL WINTER FORECAST

Winter 2011/2012

Factors Involved:

• Recent, Low Solar Activity
  
• La Nina and a predicted strengthening La Nina
  
• The consitency of High Pressure over Greenland
  
• Current and near future positioning of the jet stream
  
• The Weather of the past 12 or so months
  

Overview

Essentially, I am predicting yet another below average winter for 2011/2012 with a wide variety of weather types and set ups. I am not expecting a winter that rivals the likes of 1962/1963 or 1946/1947, however I do expect this winter to carry on the theme of the past three winters with at least one notable and significant cold spell. The duration could be just a week or an entire month and the intensity could be very little snow with temperatures widely at 1c at day and -4c at night for a sustained period to a record breaking cold spell with large snow amounts and bitterly cold temperatures. However the entire winter will not be widely below average as I do expect more average and above average periods within the winter aswell as periods of average, settled conditions to unsettled polar martime air masses inbetween depressions. Short-lived and less intense cold spells are also expected this winter.

The reason for my forecast is the prominence and consistency of the Greenland High, which has been responsibe for cold spells during the past few winters and has been a notable factor in our weather for the past 12 months. With La Nina strengthening, I expect Febuary to be least likely month to see the worst of the winter weather - however it could pull out a surprise and bring a sharp and notable cold spell out of nothing. Unlike last year, I expect the winter to also be more balanced and we shouldn't see the same deprivation of snow that we saw in January and Febuary earlier this year - therefore I even expect Febuary (what is likely to be the milder month of the winter) to see at least some snow and cold.

The timing of events is uncertain, however with the Atlantic set to become a major feature during the end of October and most likely the majority of November (a simular output to 2010 and 2009), I expect this to be a catalyst for the weather this winter with most of the Atlantic activity to be done and dealt with before the winter comes. As we all know, a big freeze can come soon after an active period for the Atlantic. However I don't expect any significant cold spell to arrive immediatley after an active jet stream, instead I think any freeze up will happen at a time frame of at least 7 days after frontal activity stops or slows down. Therefore, I don't expect a significant big freeze this November as I expect most of the month to be dominated by the jet stream, however I can' rule out a short-lived cold spell during the second half of the month. If the Atlantic loses it's dominance in our weather by the end of November, I expect a severe cold spell to start at anytime between the 5th of December and the 20th of January (therefore I expect the most likely period for a major cold spell is December and/or January). At the moment I would say it's most likely that Northern Blocking will re-appear once more sometime in December with a cold spell lasting perhaps lasting into January depending on the duration and the beggining of the freeze. However if we are only restricted to polar maritime air masses between fronts aswell as short lived cold spells in December, I also expect January to be almost as reliable as December for a significant cold spell (perhaps we could end up with two spells of notable winter weather, however at the moment I would say that is quite unlikely). The period inbetween or before/after cold spell(s) should consist of anticyclonic conditions, an active jet, short lived cold spells. Febuary should be a month that sees some short lived cold spell during the first half of the month although you can't rule out a more significant blast of winter weather during the month - anyway, I expect Febuary to be more likely than November to face the highlight of the winter.

FORECAST

DECEMBER 2011:

• The period 1st-7th December is likely to follow what should be a cooler end to November. I expect December to start off on a cooler note - than what November is likely to be as a whole - with nighttime frost and daytime temperatures of 4C to 9C. This period should bring a mixture of sunshine, cloud and fog to parts of the UK as settled weather prevails. Towards the end of this period, I expect a light easterly to develop bringing slightly cooler temperatures abd North Sea cloud cover with the potential for the odd flake of snow to eastern coasts.
  

• During the period 7th-14th of December, I expect Low Pressure systems from the west to cross over the United Kingdom, bringing rain, wind, milder temperatures and some wet hill snow in the Highlands. Although temperatures are likely to be milder, I do expect some cool-cold polar maritime incursions between depressions bringing some sunshine (particulary to more southern and eastern areas although cloud may hang on to some coastal areas), some frost (perhpas lasting the entire day of some Northern areas) and wintery showers (most likely to be centered over NW Scotland and Northern Ireland). However during this period I expect the potential for a more severe and prolonged cold spell to develop as heights over Greenland show hints of building,
  

• During the period 14th-21st of December, I expect to see High Pressure over Greenland beginning to take shape as the UK enters a quieter period of settled and cool weather under anti-cyclonic conditions bringing the threat of some frost and fog and large periods of sunshine and cloud covering swathes of the United Kingdom. During the middle of this period, I expect the weather to turn slightly cooler with the possibility of ice days in Northern and Eastern areas of the UK with the potential for some relatively severe frosts during the longer nights. Towards the end of the period I expect the first notable cold to arrive in the North and East as easterly winds begin to take control, bringing some cold conditons and light snow showers to northern and eastern areas.
  

• The period 21st-31st of December, the UK should be under a very decent pool of cold air and weather stretching right through much of Northern, Western, Central and Eastern Europe. Winds should be easterly/north easterly with some heavy snow showers in the North and North East of the UK with lighter flurries elsewhere although during this period there may occasionally be some larger and more widespread snowfalls that aren't exclusively confined to the north and east. Temperatures may struggle to get above freezing during the short days and lows of -10C to -20C may be possible in some rural settlements in the Northern and Eastern Highlands of Scotland. As the period goes on I expect snowfalls to become more widespread and spread out with accumilations in many areas although not quite to the same degree as the last two winters.
  

JANUARY 2012:

• The new year should start with a cold NEly over the UK - during the early part of the period 1st-7th January - bringing snow showers from Hull northwards (these light to moderate in terms of intensity with the worst of the snow being from Newcastle to Aberdeen). This period should see the coldest of the temperatures across the UK as the winds change to more of a Northerly to North Westerly. This should see a change in the emphasis of the positioning of the wintery precipitation with areas such as Northern Ireland, Northern Wales and most of Northern and Western Scotland seeing the focal point of regular but light snow showers (heaviest near the coasts). Despite these snow showers and occasional polar lows, all in all it will be sunny and cold.
  

• The duration of the 7th-13th of January should see a change as the cold spell ends either at the start or before the period resulting in westerly winds taking over with melting snow cover and milder, wetter and windier conditions to all parts of the UK. At times, there could be some very wet and windy conditions in the NW. Meanwhile, high pressure over Greenland once more develops.
  

• The period 13th-20th January should see another cold spell as the jet is blocked once more. All in all, I expect a shorter cold spell to happen with the empahsis on North Westerly winds. The worst of any snow is likely to be centered in Northern and Western areas with snow showers and occasional more organised areas of low pressure. Otherwise it will be settled and cold and temperatures of -15C could be possible in the North East of Scotland.
  

• Yet again, between the 20th and 25th of January, I expect a milder atlantic influence on our weather with the possibilty of some very mild temperatures in the SW who largely missed out on the last cold spell.
  

• The time frame between the 25th to the 30th of January is expected to see a settled end to January as High Pressure sits over or near the United Kingdom. This should bring cool, settled conditions with some frost, particulary in Northern and Central Areas.
  

FEBUARY 2012:

• Febuary should start off largely settled and cool with frost, fog and winter sunshine. All in the period 1st to 4th of Febuary is likely to be fairly quiet weatherwise.
  

• The period 4th-10th of Febuary is expected to see High Pressure move northwards and eastwards, bringing the potential for colder weather across the UK. This could see snow showers in the East and South East of the UK.
  

• The following period of the 10th-17th of Febuary is expected to see another return to atlantic influenced weather with plentiful depressions, some bringing very stormy conditions in the NW with hill snow in the Northern and Western Highlands. In between low pressure systems should see more settled conditions and I do expect a sharp Artirc interlude which could evidently result in a frontal snowfall.
  

• The period 17th-22nd of Febuary should see a brief cold snap over the UK, under a North Westerly wind, bringing wintery showers primarily to the NW of the Country.
  

• The month should end under a mild southerly influence following in behind the NWly, bringing a very mild end to an otherwise cool-pretty cold winter.
  

AWT

[Tim Bland]

Good work AWT. A well reasoned and balanced / realistic forecast. Thank you for your efforts.

[Downburst]

Do you think that anyone could set up a reasonable looking weather website and then have the influence that they have (without having any met quals)?

Of course they can and they do. The old internet has been a revolution, good, Netweather, bad take your pick. Lots of foecast weather messiahs out there, but lets distinguish from a service that gives data and value and a log that is a blog. Interesting times ahead to see how future generations change with so much information available.

[cheshire snow]

^AWT

^{Thanks for all your hard work with your forecast hope it goes to plan for you}

^{A very enjoyable read}

^C.S

[A Winter's Tale]

RJS

Winter Forecast for 2011-12

Methodology

My forecast continues to use natural variations as the main foundation, but this season I have brought daily CET data on stream replacing monthly data for the first time. I am hoping this will lead to an increase in accuracy and fine-tuning of the forecast. Essentially, the forecast is generated by isolating several dozen cycles of various lengths, all of rather small amplitude when considered in isolation. These also have directional parameters -- some of the variables are retrograde, helping to set a pattern for the forecast in terms of blocking and air mass origins to complement the basic numerical output. The technique has given mixed results but has in the past three winters identified most of the colder periods with considerable accuracy. The most recent summer forecast, while somewhat off the mark in calling for slightly warmer than average, was closer than many other approaches. Last winter there was a generally good review for the forecast to late January but we expected the cold to return in February which it failed to do. When I say "we" the reference is to my long-time collaborator in long-range forecasting and research, "Blast from the Past." Fred has reviewed this forecast and gives it a general endorsement, but would like to confine his forecasting to 4-6 weeks this winter season due to heavy workload. He will drop into the thread and give some updates from time to time.

Returning to methodology, the numerical output includes some variables based on lunar orbital cycles (although this is about 20-30 per cent of the variability in the research model) and this input assists in timing various events or spells of weather. Other input tends to establish longer-term pressure signals and flow patterns. The blend gives us numerical output that could be used to create even daily-scale model maps but at the current level of validation, I prefer to use this blend to give just an indication of the sort of rhythm of weather events at different stages of the winter season. In any case, a long-range forecast is mostly useful for establishing tendencies and ranges of possible impact and not in nailing down events that can be refined closer to time anyway.

General Forecast Statement

The winter season appears likely to be cold again, at least on balance, but unlike last year, January may be the most wintry month of the three. The very basic overview is for a rather cold November, a variable December near average overall, a cold and potentially snowy January, and a mild February, followed by a "backward" March that has a return to rather wintry weather later in the month. For reference, CET monthly temperatures are predicted at 5.8 for November, 4.5 for December, 1.5 for January, 6.2 for February, and 6.5 for March. Precipitation is expected to be generally 25-50 per cent above normal except for pockets near normal in the south and east. Snowfall is expected to be above normal almost everywhere with several wintry periods expected.

The detailed outlook

From what will evidently be a cold period in late October, expect a recovery to mild weather for a while in early NOVEMBER, but progressively colder weather mid to late month with some early signs of winter in northerly and easterly outbreaks. Some frost days may occur in central and northern regions but unlike last year, this late November cold is not expected to dig in and produce a lengthy cold spell.

DECEMBER may be a roller coaster of mild and cold spells. The coldest part of the month is likely to come around the 15th to 20th. Before that, the first two weeks may include some strong winds from deep Atlantic lows, heavy rainfalls, brief intervals of hail or snow, but eventually, arctic air should develop and there could be snow on the ground at times just before Christmas. Then the Christmas holiday period is expected to turn milder with fog and rain especially around the 27th when it could once again become rather stormy. By New Years Eve it may be turning a lot colder.

JANUARY may be "the" month for this coming winter, and there may be several occasions with snow although the first week to ten days may start with more of a northwest flow that would restrict snow to western and northern regions. This could be a windy period in general before deeper cold arrives probably from a Scandinavian high. This should direct the winds more easterly and give the higher snowfall potential in central and eastern counties. Severe frost may develop and the CET estimate (1.5) is conservative depending on snow cover feedback, but frost days seem very likely around mid-January. There may be further snowfalls later in the month as the storm track tries to push back north.

FEBRUARY could start out cold and snowy but the model output shows a strong warming early in the month and a peak of very mild conditions in mid to late February. This suggests that southerly flow may predominate and reverse the cold pattern to mild or even very mild. It may be rather dry in this pattern for the south and east, trending to wet in western Scotland and Northern Ireland.

MARCH is expected to start out mild but become a "backward" sort of early spring month with returns to wintry patterns later on. The below normal trend may deepen into early April. The warmth of April 2011 may be in contrast to a cold April in 2012 with May the warm month this time.

I will of course update this forecast if different indications are given from more reliable time scales, but this is what the numerical output shows at present. You could think of this method as being similar in concept to the CFS system although using (presumably) different input. As always, we hope for the best and consider "success" to be fairly loosely defined in terms of being more often right than wrong, or on the right side of normal two-thirds of the time.

A Few Other Notes

This winter, the lunar perigee falls about halfway from full moon to new moon or during the descending phase of lunar declination. This has in past analogues been associated with temperature reversals from mild to cold as the southward pull of the Moon towards southern max (at winter new moon) is enhanced. This is one reason why a lot of the colder intervals in the forecast are essentially lined up around mid-month although this period is only 28 days. The energy levels this winter will vary from an active phase lasting 5-6 days to a low-energy phase lasting 8-10 days. This may show up in a modulation of stormy weeks followed by blocked or inactive weeks. It's one reason why I suspect the main theme of the winter before any severe cold in January may be "from one extreme to the other." We may be reading a lot of comments in discussions about how the season cannot "make up its mind" and settle into one pattern. For those who like their winters active, this should be a good thing. For those who like cold and/or snow, patience may be necessary but January should deliver this time.

I think that in such an active pattern, a major windstorm seems a fairly good bet. While not wishing to be too specific, periods around the December and January full moons are favoured for strong westerly winds.

My advice to people in weather-sensitive areas of the economy would be to plan for a severe winter or at least a more severe winter than average, but not to expect it to be non-stop, there will be relaxed spells between wintry blasts. Some of the more extreme conditions in January may be harsh in isolated higher regions of the country. Livestock may need to be indoors or provided with extra feed at times. Road travel may be disrupted about 5 to 10 per cent of the time outside the more temperate south. There is a good chance of seeing four or five significant snowfall events and one or two major events possibly blizzards in some cases.

So now we wait ... and watch.

Backtrack's winter forecast 2011

Hi everyone. This forecast has been created from the trends and patterns of numerous model outputs ranging from the GFS,ECM,CFS and a couple of other factors too. Please don't slate my forecast if it does not show what you would like to hear, I have put a lot of hard work into creating the forecast and think you will find it fairly accurate up until January at the least. At this stage confidence falls drastically, with January looking likely to go either way at this stage.

My confidence in February is surprisingly high, not just based on the CFS anomaly charts' trends, but also due to the fact that I believe we are long over due a cool February. And whilst weather doesn't follow a set of rules, I certainly cannot see this month being mild at the very least.

Hope you enjoy reading it, sure I'm an amateur and you will find that RJF's forecast and BFTP's (when he does his) forecasts are likely to be much better, but hey, it's all in good fun!

Also, on a side note, I am a massive coldie fan, and writing the forecast for the first 2 months was painful for me, not only am I confident in their accuracy, but I am unfortunately expecting little cold for Western areas for some time. I've spoiled it enough. Good luck.

October:

21-30th - This period is likely to be mild and windy at times with the best of any brightness in the East, with the West seeing cloudier conditions with rain, heavy at times. Temperatures remaining around average for the time of year, perhaps slightly above average at times in the far South.

November:

1st - 10th - Numerous outputs, trends and patterns point to a North/South split during the first third of the month. It's looking very likely that it's going to be very average in the North, day time temperatures hitting 8-10C, but above average in the South, temperatures hitting 13-16C. Precipitation wise, the first start of the month looks like being very wet and unsettled, perhaps making up for the drought in place in Eastern areas. An Atlantic dominated first third, night time temperatures unlikely to bring any frosts at all away from the coldest of hollows.

10th - 20th - This period will follow the same theme as the first third for a time at least, with temperatures being pleasant enough in the South for T-shirts to be worn. In the North though, it's again very average for the time of year until the mid month point at least. Temperatures again 8-10C, 13-15C in the South. It's the mid month point that may bring some interest to you with the first frosts of the month likely, temperatures still recovering to average by day. This third is likely to be the windiest with frequent gales, especially in the West.

20th - 30th - Another dissapointingly average period with little in the way of Winter to be shown just yet. Temperatures again remaining oh so average, although temperatures may be down a little way at least, 5-9C in the North, 10-13C in the South. Rainfall should be around average for the time of year, as should sunshine amounts. A cold spell is likely around the end of the month (The very end of the month) giving the first low level snow to Northern & Eastern areas, this may also mark the start of the Cairngorm skiing season. Frosts are also likely towards the end of the month, but Western and Southern areas are going to have to wait to see anything remotely in the way of snow.

CET - 7.7C

December:

The first third of December will be dominated by a North Westerly flow, bringing Western Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and Western England their first snows of the season. The cold spell will not be anything remarkable with temperatures still managing to climb to 2-5C during the day, any lying snow is likely to be short lived, with hail showers becoming a very dominant feature for Western areas during the period.

The second third is likely to me average with little snow away from the highlands. Rainfall and sunshine amounts are looking around average, rainfall slightly above.

The Christmas period is a great day to feel the full effects of Winter as Santa makes his way down your chimney to make many boys and girls happy. Unfortunately santa may melt in England, as there is likely to be no snow away from the hills. For Northern Scotland, a white Christmas is looking likely with snow actually falling on the day!

The last 5-6 days may see the return of Northerly winds but confidence in this stage is very low. A North Easterly lasting 4-5 days seems the most likely scenario at this stage with snow showers for Eastern areas in particular.

CET - 5.4C

January:

January is likely to be a cold month. Where as December will struggle to get any decent frosts, there will not be a shortage of these in January as high pressure takes control of our weather for a time at least, bringing some painfully low night time minima, and temperatures struggling to make average during the day. Sunshine amounts are likely to be above average, where as rainfall is looking likely to be below average.

Snowfall throughout this period is going to be a premium.

The second third is when things start to get interesting. We start with winds switching to a morth North Westerly element, and as the week goes on, they switch around to North, followed by North East. This is likely to be the snowiest period, with much of the country seeing a good total of snow by the time the spell has finished around the 20th.

The last third is looking increasingly Atlantic dominated, with rainfall above average, and sunshine at a premium. Snow over Northern hills.

CET - 3.5C

February

February will see Winter in full force, with frequent cold spells and snow for many. Frequent Easterly winds will bring some impressive totals to Eastern areas, with the West having to wait a while to see anything wintry other than frosts.

The second period is likely to keep the Easterly theme going but perhaps snow showers for the West as the wind kicks in, sending the showers over the Pennines.

The last half is likely to be Atlantic dominated with frequent gales and above average rainfall.

CET - 2.9C

Overall an average Winter is looking likely. Nothing like the last 2, with the overall CET likely to be bang on, or VERY slightly below average.

Thanks,

Backtrack.

RADIATING DENDRITE

Winter Forecast:

Current state of play:

Low Solar Activity (compared to what has been the case during previous cycles). Activity is increasing though as we build up towards the maximum, but despite this I believe that a lag effect is experienced and the build up in activity will not influence the atmosphere until later on next year. With this in mind, the troposphere will continue to be cooler than normal; this it is believed leads to a greater frequency of Northern blocking and a more southerly tracking Jet Stream.

QBO is currently negative and east based (this strengthening) with a Negative QBO tending to lead to increased blocking, and colder weather through the January and February winter months. However, recent models have shown it may become less easterly with time through the winter, possibly becoming positive as well. A positive QBO which is west based is usually associated with boosting the La Nina, generally leading to a milder end to winter, with a more active Atlantic with increased zonality.

La Nina is predicted to strengthen during the winter, but should not become as strong as we saw last winter, as seen in the chart below:

As we can see though, this is not “nailedâ€, with the strength still ranging from strong to weak, depending on what models you look at. I think the only sensible thing to do is use the average for this forecast and base any predictions on the average that is currently being shown/predicted.

CFS model data is currently showing a mixed winter, with periods of high pressure dominated weather, as well as low pressure dominated weather and a more active Atlantic. The CFS shows a colder January at present with blocking in the mid-Atlantic during the first half of the month:

This is broken down though, with a trough establishing itself over Scandinavia during the second half of the month:

NAO/AO I believe are influenced by the factors laid out above, being reactive rather than pro-active when it comes to having an influence on the atmosphere and weather. As seen below both are slightly positive for the current month

October NAO +0.27

October AO +0.18

Early last winter saw both become strongly negative, to record levels in some instances, with strong Northern blocking developing during late November and December. Current values would indicate a mix or blocking as well as cyclogenesis in the Arctic and Atlantic, this being what is currently being shown in the GFS and ECM, with neither gaining a firm grip and the UK in a no mans land situation. I believe that we will see a negative NAO and AO during winter, in response to the lower solar activity lag, however, the figures will not be as extreme as what occured at the beginning of last winter.

Other minor factors:

Building Blocks - As has been discussed in the MOD thread, we do currently have a European high in place and a sluggish Atlantic stalling against this. Is this a theme that will continue to occur in winter?

Recent Past – With the last three winters containing significant cold spells, have we now turned a corner and finally rid ourselves of the even larger teapot curse that seemed apparent in the 90s/00s?

NH Snow Cover – Currently around average, however, sea ice did reach the second lowest extent on record, will this have a major impact?

Personally, I see these other factors as more minor in the development of winter than the teleconnections discussed above. However, the development of favourable synoptics during late autumn and increasing amounts of cold pooling are certainly a good thing if a cold winter is what you are looking for, however, this does not mean that a cold winter will be the end result, if the overriding back ground signals are not favourable.

So……..what do I expect from the winter?

CET Predictions??

November 7.0c

I see November as being a fairly benign and average month. We will continue with the theme of a high to the east and Atlantic troughs to the west during the beginning of the month, with the second half of the month seeing a more mobile Atlantic, with the high slipping into southern Europe, giving us a feed of SW winds for a time. Temperatures will be slightly above the long term average, with rainfall around average, perhaps above average in the North and West.

December 4.4c

December will start where November left off, with temperatures slightly above average and a succession of weather fronts crossing the country. By the middle of the month I expect the Atlantic to start to become quieter, in response to the Negative East based QBO and cooler troposphere. High pressure will start to develop, possibly from the west, with it becoming stationed over the UK as we move towards the Christmas period. I see Christmas as being quiet and anti-cyclonic with some cold nights and chilly frosty days. At the end of the month, we will start to see retrogression of the high away from the UK.

January 1.6c

I believe that January will contain the core of the winter cold, similar to what we saw in winter 09/10. Currently the CFS shows high pressure located around Iceland during the first half of the month:

As we can see, this would bring cold NE winds to the UK and snow. Although I agree with the signal for High Pressure, as shown by the CFS for this period (carrying on the theme from the end of December) I believe that we could see a significant high pressure cell forming over Scandinavia, having retrogressed from the UK and linking up with developing high pressure over Iceland and SW Greenland. This would see significant cold for the UK from the east, with the low pressure undercutting the high, with a southerly tracking Jet Stream. The CFS shows a breakdown during the latter part of the month:

I would agree with this breakdown, but I think that we will have a period of cold zonality as is shown above, with Northerly and North Westerly winds. January will return the coldest CET of the winter, potentially significantly cold, though this depends on the depth of the cold during the early part of the month and whether any unsettled weather at the end cancels this out to a certain degree.

February 4.4c

February I see as quite a mobile month (unusually so) in response to a slight strengthening of La Nina and the QBO becoming more west based and less negative. I see February as fairly average temperature wise, with blocking struggling to establish itself to the North. A mid Atlantic high may develop during the middle of the month (currently being predicted for March by the CFS as shown below):

This has the possibility of bringing some colder weather from the North, but I do not see it as a permanent feature, possibly slipping to our South West, with lower heights developing to the North.

Winter Overall 3.5c

Isolated Frost

Quote

Based on hunches, expectations and pattern matching...

December: CET 4.3C Cool, quite wet and Atlantic dominated.

Cool, generally wet, especially in the north, much of it falling as snow. High pressure in Greenland persists with a stable, repetitive Scandinavian trough. Jet to the north of the UK as lows move across Scotland, but a blocked atlantic, with limited slugglish energy, pulling in cool air from the north, but moving in from the north west/west. Heavy snowfall events across western parts, generally cloudy and cool across eastern areas. Turning milder as high pressure moves in from the west, with low pressure flowing across Iceland towards the arctic. Towards Christmas and New Year, cold westerlies move back in as high pressure sinks, and wet, windy weather for the north. Some limited snowfall, and some frosty spells in the south in the last week.

Pressure anomalies -12mb Reykjavik, +2mb London, +4mb Paris, -7mb Oslo, -2mb Berlin.

January: CET 2.4C Highlight of the winter for some - generally dry after a wet start.

Cool, becoming very cold, and very dry in parts. High pressure grows again in Greenland, and the jet moves south slowly towards Britain and France - this makes for a wet start over England and Wales. Mixed with atlantic airmasses of tropical and polar mixing. Becoming very cold mid-month as the arctic floodgates are opened. Very snowy at times for northern parts, bitter cold persistently - Polar lows move in to create immense snow amounts in some western parts. Very cold and dry in southern areas again. High pressure moves in from Greenland, ridging likely, giving a milder end to the month, but still generally below average - cold, dry and frosty in northern parts, more average and cloudy in southern parts.

Pressure anomalies +5mb Reykjavik, -3mb London, -7mb Paris, -4mb Oslo, 0mb Berlin

February: CET 5.0C Extremes of attempted easterly cold to warm, sunny spells.

The month begins with high pressure in charge, and a cool flow - generally dry and sunny. Soon, pressure begins to build rapidly in the Arctic, pushing south towards Scandinavia, as the jet tries to move north. Cold air pummels through Northern and Central Europe through the middle of the month, and record cold near Germany and Denmark. Quite milder towards Britain with a southerly flow as pressure towards the north west drops once more. The scandinavian high influences the British weather slowly towards mid-late month as cold -15c uppers reach the North Sea, but they are limited by a growing Atlantic presence. They give some wintry/snowy showers to the east for a while before being ousted by an increasingly strong atlantic. Some very heavy snowfalls in the midlands and south from battleground snowfall. High pressure generally moves in from the south/southeast late in the month as the first signs of warmer spring-like weather appear. A very warm, sunny end to the month with some westerlies and wetter weather for the north, but mostly dry and sunny, especially in the south.

Pressure anomalies -8mb Reykjavik, +8mb London, +7mb Paris, +4mb Oslo, +10mb Berlin

Decided to post in here aswell but feel its needed in the other thread too to make it more positive

December = CET -0.7C Extreme Cold

Very Below Average Precipitation

January = 0.7C Very Cold

Below Average Precipitation

February = 2.2C Cold but getting warmer

Just Below Average Precipitation

Published 16th October 2011

OK here goes nothing .. :-)

December : Likely to be a continuation of drought for Southern and Eastern Areas, cold (but not excessivly so) by day, and where winds fall light under High Pressure plenty of frosts.

Always wetter in the NW of the UK, and some North Westerly's from time to time clipping Scotland giving plenty more mountain and hilltop snow, a mixture of wintery showers further south as occasional and temporary northerly incursions move south over NE England.

Midlands likely to see the best of any sunshine , a lot of mist and fog along Southern and some Eastern coasts.

A generally windy theme for Ireland and the NW.

I still think that things will change sometime around 20th Dec, the feed of weather to become increasingly Northerly, although Im not so sure how long this will last, it could well be that the winds and weather direction swing to a more North Easterly, and if this happens the East, North East, South East, and Scotland could well see a White x-mas, the west closer to High Pressure, and here we could see a battleground scenario take place.

If High Pressue holds firm, this could last until the beginning of Jan, but I think it's more likely that well see the blocking pattern move and end up more to the South of the UK, allowing the atlantic to slip through once again.

Jan I think we'll see a gradual increase in temperatures as we go through January, and a very mixed month to follow.

Lots of rain, strong winds, but also plenty of sunshine around, and some bright crisp days, High Pressure shifting around to be centered over the UK at times, Low Pressure feeding in from the North at times, to give more mountain snow, and snow over the hills of Northern England, Wales, and also parts of Ireland, but weather also encroaching from the South West at times, raising temperatures ntionwide as it does so

No real dominating pattern, so any blocking is likely to be temporary, resulting in a few cold days, perhaps a couple of snowy days almost anywhere, but I dont see there being day after day of cold.

Winds generally quite strong and when the feed is from the North, temporary blizzard conditions likely in Scotland.

FEB I Think Feb is likely to start off quite settled, but I believe that the UK is going to find itself sandwiched between 2 large High Pressure systems.

One over scandi, and one over Iceland, the result is the direcion of our weather from an etremely cold north, a true blast of winter finally comes, and as fronts move south, they drag in more North Easterly winds, and blanket much of the UK in snow, I think there will be a series of fronts passing from the NE of the UK, moving SE and we'll have a very cold first 2 weeks of Feb.

Generally overcast, winds brisk, but not extremely so, and temperatures very cold, lots of ice.

Just before mid Feb, things start to warm up, and a gradual increase in temperatures, winds fall light, and a slow thaw of any lying snow.

We might see a very stormy and wet end to Feb.

TO summarize :

Dec : Dry, perhaps colder than the average, windy, perhaps a widespread white chritmas (0.5 Degrees BELOW THE AVERAGE FOR CET)

Jan : Mixed month with no real dominating pattern ( AVERAGE CET)

Feb : Very cold forst half, warming up to end on a stormy note. ( 0.5 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE FOR CET, a cold first half offset by a milder 2nd half)

That's my analysis, based upon the possible over cooking of La Nina (I believe we'll be at about negative 1 by Jan)..which is a weak La Nina, and not at negative 2 which is a moderate to strong La Nina, as is being forecast by CFS charts.

Sunspot activiy, although has increased, I believe there is a lag time in for the effects of increased activity to take effect on the large scale, I still think we'll experience a generally colder winter this time around, due to last years very quiet sun.

Jet Stream, it could well be the Jet stream that is the undoing of my forecast, it has movd much further north (as an average position) over recent months, my forecast is for this to be a teemporary blip, my forecast is for the jet to slip further south (as an average position) from end of Nov onwards

QBO AND NAO Im still not clued up about these really, so those are 2 things i'll be looking at and learning more about in 2012.

early forecast from me:

Mild, occassionay very mild November - with above average precipitation for Western parts (inc. N.Ireland) and Scotland. Eastern parts likely to be dryer than normal - but won't rule out a few severe spells of wet and windy weather; it is november. Any November snow wil be confined to the Highlands of Scotland (as is the case now) and very ocassionaly the Northern hills of England - but nothing too serious.

December, I expect, will be colder than November - but still above average overall. I'm going with a tussle between a developing European/Scandi high and various Atlantic lows. This could potentially deliver the occassional bit and piece of low level snow - but certainly nothing that compares to December 2010 - or even December 2009, when some parts of the south had a White Christmas. Rainfall therefore expected to be similar to that of November - concentrated in Western and Northern parts, though not exclusively so, with other areas seeing either average or below average rainfall.

January 2012 becomes colder IMO, high pressure being the largest reason. I expect cold nights and mildish days, at least to begin with, eventually turning into cold days as well. Expecting an average month nationwide but colder than average for parts of Scotland and the North. Less rain and certainly dryer than either of the two previous months. What rainfall there is though becomes increasingly likely to fall as snow over all northern elevations - and as the month progresses, and the high pressure begins to act as more of a blocking high to either our NW or NE, the chances of more widespread snow increases. Not a month to remember, I would suggest, but an interesting period of weather - fluctuating from Mild to Cold as the general theme.

February is perhaps the best chance of that snowmeggedon that everyone seems to be after. I believe this will be a cold month - the only below average month, perhaps akin to that of Feb 2009, where in cambridgeshire for instance, we had 17 days of lying snow and 7 days of falling snow in a row - which remains the longest period of snowfall I have ever had in the UK. Rainfall is likely to be below average overall - though it won't seem snow because of increasing snow depths - which obviously need only a tenth of rainfall equivalent to seem as bad.

Overall I predict an average winter - which, depending on the severity of either December warmth or February Cold, could swing either way. The theme is one of warmth to Cold. Rainfall is expected to be below average for most in the South and East - and increasing to average and then above average the further north and west one goes.

This is based on solar activity, arctic Ice, GLAM (as explained in the netweather official video from Stuart), current activity, sea temperatures and a combination of other available forecasts.

Not saying this is what will happen, but i wanted my first ever official pop.

ps i'll update that again in late November to include only the actual Winter months. I expect some changes , but with the general theme to remain.

Well, here's my attempt at this winter's CET using a numerical analogue forecast:

• Dec:2007, 0.30757,0 4.9C
  
• Jan:2005, 0.307548, 6.0C
  
• Feb:1808 0.645690 2.8C
  

How was this done?

For each month I took the last 11 years of data for that month (so 11 years of Decembers) and then compared that 11 year block incrementally to every 11 year block in the CET series year by by year calculating the covariance statistic (how much the two sets of data change with each other) for each comparison. The highest covariance wins.

Not sure how good this is: it didn't pick up last years December record low - but perhaps this method wouldn't, anyway, since there is no analogue for a record breaking low temp The amount of years back to compare is also a crucial factor with the results varying wildly. I went for 11 years because of the sunspot cycle - I had to choose something!

If this is any good (and, to be honest, I doubt it) looks like we have to wait to Feb for good snow chances.

Winter forecast 2011/2012 - elements of an Arctic winter

Factors:

•ENSO(La-Nina)

•PDO

•QBO

•AO/NAO

•Solar Activity

•Volcanic dust layers

•Ocean temperatures

•Jet stream-moving south

November - mid month i predict a settled period with colder air and with some frost and fog at night in many regions with high pressure, there is an increasing risk of a colder more wintry development towards the later november period from the north and then a northeasterly flow. i do not expect substantial snow or severe cold, an Atlantic block setting up (atlantic high pressure) during this period, it is possible that we see the lows from the west moving in for a while at the end of the month.

December - after a milder and rainy start high pressure builds and leads us into cold and frosty conditions, i expect this to be a colder high with severe frosts, eventually snowfall becomes widespread from the northeast as the high pressure cells move into the right setup to pull down a cold air flow as we move into the mid month period, i expect a significant spell of snowfall during this period with a risk that it could turn severe, but at this stage i can say cold with snow showers but how severe we wont know until nearer the time, but the risk is there, many heavy snow showers blown in from the north/northeast, these conditions lasting most of the month with it being cold dry at times.

I did expect some low pressures to move across with mild air and possibly a storm, but now i see the increasing chances that cold and mostly drier conditions will result.

January - i expect the cold to continue with snow staying on the ground from last month in many regions, cold and dry with snow showers for early month, some normal colder air at times as high placements move around bringing air flows from a less cold direction at times before very cold conditions setup again in the north as we move into mid january ,by this time low pressure systems crossing France as the Atlantic wakes up could bring snowfall to southern areas as cold air gets pulled down from the north, a high pressure block stopping a northerly track of the lows, the jet stream could move north during january but i dont think it will do until late month, cold and drier air further north brings snow showers from the north and northeast as we move into the end of the month for all areas. the snowfall events this month i expect to be highly disruptive with widespread deep snowfall, i have more confidence in this than what snowfall december could bring.

February - mild periods with rainfall as the Atlantic brings in weather fronts with the jet stream edging north, but with some cold spells at times some snow events are likely as the fronts come up against the cold air, this could affect a wide area, i do see more risk of cold staying with us then last years mild conditions, this increases the risk of snowfall.

spring warmth to come much later than last year, i dont see a quick warm up.

february could be a snowy month depends on how active the atlantic becomes and if it brings in milder air faster which could result in possible snowfall at first before atlantic conditions move in.

Winter 2011/12:

• Below average temperatures

• Less widespread rainfall from the Atlantic

• Drier then average

• Above average widespread snowfall

• Higher risk of blizzards in January as Atlantic fires up

• More high pressure than normal early winter

• Disruptive widespread snow and ice events

• More frost and fog than normal due to high pressure and snowfall events

Overall i predict a cold and snowy winter with some periods of less cold weather affecting all areas, some significant and disruptive snowfall events throughout winter, late winter seeing more snow battleground situations then last winter as mild air pushes against cold air.

ESS

AWT FINAL WINTER FORECAST

Winter 2011/2012

Factors Involved:

• Recent, Low Solar Activity
  
• La Nina and a predicted strengthening La Nina
  
• The consitency of High Pressure over Greenland
  
• Current and near future positioning of the jet stream
  
• The Weather of the past 12 or so months
  

Overview

Essentially, I am predicting yet another below average winter for 2011/2012 with a wide variety of weather types and set ups. I am not expecting a winter that rivals the likes of 1962/1963 or 1946/1947, however I do expect this winter to carry on the theme of the past three winters with at least one notable and significant cold spell. The duration could be just a week or an entire month and the intensity could be very little snow with temperatures widely at 1c at day and -4c at night for a sustained period to a record breaking cold spell with large snow amounts and bitterly cold temperatures. However the entire winter will not be widely below average as I do expect more average and above average periods within the winter aswell as periods of average, settled conditions to unsettled polar martime air masses inbetween depressions. Short-lived and less intense cold spells are also expected this winter.

The reason for my forecast is the prominence and consistency of the Greenland High, which has been responsibe for cold spells during the past few winters and has been a notable factor in our weather for the past 12 months. With La Nina strengthening, I expect Febuary to be least likely month to see the worst of the winter weather - however it could pull out a surprise and bring a sharp and notable cold spell out of nothing. Unlike last year, I expect the winter to also be more balanced and we shouldn't see the same deprivation of snow that we saw in January and Febuary earlier this year - therefore I even expect Febuary (what is likely to be the milder month of the winter) to see at least some snow and cold.

The timing of events is uncertain, however with the Atlantic set to become a major feature during the end of October and most likely the majority of November (a simular output to 2010 and 2009), I expect this to be a catalyst for the weather this winter with most of the Atlantic activity to be done and dealt with before the winter comes. As we all know, a big freeze can come soon after an active period for the Atlantic. However I don't expect any significant cold spell to arrive immediatley after an active jet stream, instead I think any freeze up will happen at a time frame of at least 7 days after frontal activity stops or slows down. Therefore, I don't expect a significant big freeze this November as I expect most of the month to be dominated by the jet stream, however I can' rule out a short-lived cold spell during the second half of the month. If the Atlantic loses it's dominance in our weather by the end of November, I expect a severe cold spell to start at anytime between the 5th of December and the 20th of January (therefore I expect the most likely period for a major cold spell is December and/or January). At the moment I would say it's most likely that Northern Blocking will re-appear once more sometime in December with a cold spell lasting perhaps lasting into January depending on the duration and the beggining of the freeze. However if we are only restricted to polar maritime air masses between fronts aswell as short lived cold spells in December, I also expect January to be almost as reliable as December for a significant cold spell (perhaps we could end up with two spells of notable winter weather, however at the moment I would say that is quite unlikely). The period inbetween or before/after cold spell(s) should consist of anticyclonic conditions, an active jet, short lived cold spells. Febuary should be a month that sees some short lived cold spell during the first half of the month although you can't rule out a more significant blast of winter weather during the month - anyway, I expect Febuary to be more likely than November to face the highlight of the winter.

FORECAST

DECEMBER 2011:

• The period 1st-7th December is likely to follow what should be a cooler end to November. I expect December to start off on a cooler note - than what November is likely to be as a whole - with nighttime frost and daytime temperatures of 4C to 9C. This period should bring a mixture of sunshine, cloud and fog to parts of the UK as settled weather prevails. Towards the end of this period, I expect a light easterly to develop bringing slightly cooler temperatures abd North Sea cloud cover with the potential for the odd flake of snow to eastern coasts.
  

• During the period 7th-14th of December, I expect Low Pressure systems from the west to cross over the United Kingdom, bringing rain, wind, milder temperatures and some wet hill snow in the Highlands. Although temperatures are likely to be milder, I do expect some cool-cold polar maritime incursions between depressions bringing some sunshine (particulary to more southern and eastern areas although cloud may hang on to some coastal areas), some frost (perhpas lasting the entire day of some Northern areas) and wintery showers (most likely to be centered over NW Scotland and Northern Ireland). However during this period I expect the potential for a more severe and prolonged cold spell to develop as heights over Greenland show hints of building,
  

• During the period 14th-21st of December, I expect to see High Pressure over Greenland beginning to take shape as the UK enters a quieter period of settled and cool weather under anti-cyclonic conditions bringing the threat of some frost and fog and large periods of sunshine and cloud covering swathes of the United Kingdom. During the middle of this period, I expect the weather to turn slightly cooler with the possibility of ice days in Northern and Eastern areas of the UK with the potential for some relatively severe frosts during the longer nights. Towards the end of the period I expect the first notable cold to arrive in the North and East as easterly winds begin to take control, bringing some cold conditons and light snow showers to northern and eastern areas.
  

• The period 21st-31st of December, the UK should be under a very decent pool of cold air and weather stretching right through much of Northern, Western, Central and Eastern Europe. Winds should be easterly/north easterly with some heavy snow showers in the North and North East of the UK with lighter flurries elsewhere although during this period there may occasionally be some larger and more widespread snowfalls that aren't exclusively confined to the north and east. Temperatures may struggle to get above freezing during the short days and lows of -10C to -20C may be possible in some rural settlements in the Northern and Eastern Highlands of Scotland. As the period goes on I expect snowfalls to become more widespread and spread out with accumilations in many areas although not quite to the same degree as the last two winters.
  

JANUARY 2012:

• The new year should start with a cold NEly over the UK - during the early part of the period 1st-7th January - bringing snow showers from Hull northwards (these light to moderate in terms of intensity with the worst of the snow being from Newcastle to Aberdeen). This period should see the coldest of the temperatures across the UK as the winds change to more of a Northerly to North Westerly. This should see a change in the emphasis of the positioning of the wintery precipitation with areas such as Northern Ireland, Northern Wales and most of Northern and Western Scotland seeing the focal point of regular but light snow showers (heaviest near the coasts). Despite these snow showers and occasional polar lows, all in all it will be sunny and cold.
  

• The duration of the 7th-13th of January should see a change as the cold spell ends either at the start or before the period resulting in westerly winds taking over with melting snow cover and milder, wetter and windier conditions to all parts of the UK. At times, there could be some very wet and windy conditions in the NW. Meanwhile, high pressure over Greenland once more develops.
  

• The period 13th-20th January should see another cold spell as the jet is blocked once more. All in all, I expect a shorter cold spell to happen with the empahsis on North Westerly winds. The worst of any snow is likely to be centered in Northern and Western areas with snow showers and occasional more organised areas of low pressure. Otherwise it will be settled and cold and temperatures of -15C could be possible in the North East of Scotland.
  

• Yet again, between the 20th and 25th of January, I expect a milder atlantic influence on our weather with the possibilty of some very mild temperatures in the SW who largely missed out on the last cold spell.
  

• The time frame between the 25th to the 30th of January is expected to see a settled end to January as High Pressure sits over or near the United Kingdom. This should bring cool, settled conditions with some frost, particulary in Northern and Central Areas.
  

FEBUARY 2012:

• Febuary should start off largely settled and cool with frost, fog and winter sunshine. All in the period 1st to 4th of Febuary is likely to be fairly quiet weatherwise.
  

• The period 4th-10th of Febuary is expected to see High Pressure move northwards and eastwards, bringing the potential for colder weather across the UK. This could see snow showers in the East and South East of the UK.
  

• The following period of the 10th-17th of Febuary is expected to see another return to atlantic influenced weather with plentiful depressions, some bringing very stormy conditions in the NW with hill snow in the Northern and Western Highlands. In between low pressure systems should see more settled conditions and I do expect a sharp Artirc interlude which could evidently result in a frontal snowfall.
  

• The period 17th-22nd of Febuary should see a brief cold snap over the UK, under a North Westerly wind, bringing wintery showers primarily to the NW of the Country.
  

• The month should end under a mild southerly influence following in behind the NWly, bringing a very mild end to an otherwise cool-pretty cold winter.
  

AWT

Here are some of the forecasts made by members .

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Edited November 9, 2011 by A Winter's Tale

[ZONE 51]

Thanks AWT, an enjoyable read. Its certainly going to be an interesting winter with what has been over the last few a very unusual weather pattern.