The Winter 2011/12 Forecast Thread

[ukpaul]

very true. people look at the models and say 'no foreseeable cold'. however, we only have to look at how vastly different the model evolutions are at the end of the run. any particular run will be dismissed as FI but people seem to forget that, even though unlikely, they are possible evolutions of the weather, based on the current pattern. also, how many times have we seen the models suddenly drop an idea and go off on a completely different track. all it takes is for an unlikely outlier to become the reality and off we go. as you say, last year changed suddenly from no prospects of cold, to 'proper winter'. no-one really can say for sure, but it could quite easily happen again.....

There are about a third of the ensembles in FI now showing snow for Scotland by 15th to 20th November. There are also a number of other members where -8 850 temps are dropping down inexorably. Nothing nailed on but these are the signs to look for.

[bobbydog]

There are about a third of the ensembles in FI now showing snow for Scotland by 15th to 20th November. There are also a number of other members where -8 850 temps are dropping down inexorably. Nothing nailed on but these are the signs to look for.

i agree- at that range we are only looking for general trends. but my point is also that none of the models could be showing what actually does happen in 15 days time. it only takes one small thing to tip the balance early on and we could be looking at something totally different in 10-15 days

[SLEETY]

Oh dear, a trip to specsavers tomorrow.

Indeed

But why was kast years november forecast put in this thread.

Oh well I've never been able to read correctly,probably why I've ended up in a factory working nights ,all for nine quid an hour

Anyway still nothing remotely cold in the horizon

[Eugene]

Yeah..... not really seeing this mild that people keep talking about......

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

Its plain to see on the ensembles, above average 850's all the way, yes they are misleading for early next week as it will feel pretty cool with HP but once those southerlies getting going it will be mild again, the runs are shocking for cold weather fans, november with the long nights in the top three longest nights of the year is a good month to see some cold just like May is warmth.

I guess you mean december onwards, well way too far away to take seriously really.

[asjmcguire]

http://www.wetterzen...chester_ens.png

Its plain to see on the ensembles, above average 850's all the way, yes they are misleading for early next week as it will feel pretty cool with HP but once those southerlies getting going it will be mild again, the runs are shocking for cold weather fans, november with the long nights in the top three longest nights of the year is a good month to see some cold just like May is warmth.

I guess you mean december onwards, well way too far away to take seriously really.

No I was referring to to the fact that in the Borders we are now looking at frost for the next 3 nights....

[Gavin Hannah]

Am I right in thinking that a run of high pressure (as forecast) will help lower the temps over the UK at night and in the ground? And would this be beneficial in the long run towards a cold winter?

Was just reading through the latest update from NOAA about La Nina, and while I'm only aware of the possibility of La Nina to influence our winters, I thought I'd post the link to the PDF http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

The mean forecast is for a continued strengthening to about -1.5 through Nov - Spring. Hopefully someone on here will be able to tell us if thats a good sign or not.

Edited November 4, 2011 by MadSnowboarder

[summer blizzard]

Am I right in thinking that a run of high pressure (as forecast) will help lower the temps over the UK at night and in the ground? And would this be beneficial in the long run towards a cold winter?

Was just reading through the latest update from NOAA about La Nina, and while I'm only aware of the possibility of La Nina to influence our winters, I thought I'd post the link to the PDF http://www.cpc.ncep....s-fcsts-web.pdf

The mean forecast is for a continued strengthening to about -1.5 through Nov - Spring. Hopefully someone on here will be able to tell us if thats a good sign or not.

That forecast calls for a peak in November and a gradual weakening through winter.

My personal analogue regression which i have done for my winter forecast does seem to back this up with a December peak (moderate) but weakening as a whole through winter.

[johnholmes]

December

Just to give you snow lover some hope, taken from my daily summaries of the raw CFS output each day every week, the following from the latest output!

December and a cold northerly start with even a southern tracking low during the first 12 days, giving way to a much milder unsettled spell right out to month end.

January beginning with an unsettled mild-cold mix about 70:30 mild to cold out to 21^st then 4 days colder before a brief mild day or so ending with cold out to 31^st.

February cold with northerly winds and two, yes two Channel lows in the first 10 days, then a mix of cold-mild unsettled, this time 70:30 to the cold before a mild end to the last days of winter.

By far the coldest set of charts I’ve looked at in the 10 weeks doing this. Not sure if the main CFS will show a similar idea. Quite a lot of northerly flows and at least 3 or 4 potential Channel lows.

Edited November 4, 2011 by johnholmes

[karyo]

http://www.cpc.ncep....s-fcsts-web.pdf

The mean forecast is for a continued strengthening to about -1.5 through Nov - Spring. Hopefully someone on here will be able to tell us if thats a good sign or not.

Once again the CFS is in the lower extreme of the forecast with quite a scatter in the other models. Hopefully, La Nina won't spoil our chances.

Karyo

[Gavin Hannah]

Temperature at 7am locally - 0 Deg C

and at 9am - 1-2Deg C

Its going the right away!

[stewfox]

There are about a third of the ensembles in FI now showing snow for Scotland by 15th to 20th November. There are also a number of other members where -8 850 temps are dropping down inexorably. Nothing nailed on but these are the signs to look for.

I will get the hammer in case we need it.

[Gavin Hannah]

This is good... I take it? This is yet another LR Chart that has shown some sign of snow over Scotland. I originally thought it would be next weekend we might get some snow on the hills, this puts it at a week on Fri. (Keeping my fingers crossed)

[Aaron]

Well there we have it, the Met Office don't think a cold winter is likely, the BBC Documentary secretly revealed their forecast tonight.

'course we all know we cannot take what the Met Office say as a gospel, and we don't know any details as of yet..

[Liam J]

Well there we have it, the Met Office don't think a cold winter is likely, the BBC Documentary secretly revealed their forecast tonight.

'course we all know we cannot take what the Met Office say as a gospel, and we don't know any details as of yet..

They said that the Meto aren't expecting a particularly cold Winter, not that a cold Winter is unlikely.

Edited November 6, 2011 by Liam J

[Aaron]

Still appears that the Met aren't convinced a cold winter is coming.

[Gavin Hannah]

Was a bit disappointed by the show on BBC2. After watching Frozen Planet I had my hopes up for a David Attenborough style narrative about whats caused the last few winters and what the chances are that we would be getting more of the same.

[Wynn D Woo]

Was a bit disappointed by the show on BBC2. After watching Frozen Planet I had my hopes up for a David Attenborough style narrative about whats caused the last few winters and what the chances are that we would be getting more of the same.

Aye, I was worried that the program would be little more than a PR exercise for the met office and turned out pretty much as I expected.

[Gavin Hannah]

Aye, I was worried that the program would be little more than a PR exercise for the met office and turned out pretty much as I expected.

Aye, a "don't blame us if the SHTF again this winter" lol.

[stewfox]

They said that the Meto aren't expecting a particularly cold Winter, not that a cold Winter is unlikely.

Do you think they spend a whole day discussing what phrases to use ?

'Not expecting a particulary cold winter', covers average, above average and a fair bit below average.

So average winter CET of 6c we would get 'as we said not particulary cold'

A CET of 2c , as we said not expecting a record breaking cold and as we said unlikely not impossible etc

I predicting a varible winter with varible sunshine and varible cloud cover with temperatures tending to rise over time as we go into late spring.

Edited November 6, 2011 by stewfox

[Backtrack]

Do you think they spend a whole day discussing what phrases to use ?

'Not expecting a particulary cold winter', covers average, above average and a fair bit below average.

So average winter CET of 6c we would get 'as we said not particulary cold'

A CET of 2c , as we said not expecting a record breaking cold.

I predicting a varible winter with varible sunshine and varible cloud cover with temperatures tending to rise over time as we go into late spring.

The way I see it, you must expect the opposite of what they say.

They're terrible at LRF's!

[Liam J]

Do you think they spend a whole day discussing what phrases to use ?

'Not expecting a particulary cold winter', covers average, above average and a fair bit below average.

So average winter CET of 6c we would get 'as we said not particulary cold'

A CET of 2c , as we said not expecting a record breaking cold and as we said unlikely not impossible etc

I predicting a varible winter with varible sunshine and varible cloud cover with temperatures tending to rise over time as we go into late spring.

Well they have all bases covered then - mild, average or a bit below average. So in other words they don't know for sure, nobody does.

Aaron slightly misquoted the phrase used and it sounded like they had ruled out a cold winter all together.

Edited November 7, 2011 by Liam J

[ZONE 51]

What i see is a taster or a flirt of cold before the end of the month, it will take time for the new pattern or new style of weather to evolve, this could take a few weeks, at this stage i cant see us getting plunged into a deep cold period, but cold ,especially the North-at first, this being mid to late month, the milder conditions will keep trying to break in, but eventually i see that we do get a whole new pattern to cold conditions and bringing snowfall from the northeast as we head through early to mid december, when the taster arrives later this month it could get shunted back again with rain and milder airflows. it takes time to build up the cold blocks, signals are there and they will be built, although the risk is there it just wont make it for many weeks, but i am quite confident by the various outputs and signals that it does make it and mild flows will be brushed away for a long period with cold winning the battle.

Edited November 7, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Gavin Hannah]

What i see is a taster or a flirt of cold before the end of the month, it will take time for the new pattern or new style of weather to evolve, this could take a few weeks, at this stage i cant see us getting plunged into a deep cold period, but cold ,especially the North-at first, this being mid to late month, the milder conditions will keep trying to break in, but eventually i see that we do get a whole new pattern to cold conditions and bringing snowfall from the northeast as we head through early to mid december, when the taster arrives later this month it could get shunted back again with rain and milder airflows. it takes time to build up the cold blocks, signals are there and they will be built, although the risk is there it just wont make it for many weeks, but i am quite confident by the various outputs and signals that it does make it and mild flows will be brushed away for a long period with cold winning the battle.

I like the guy from Morrisons. He seems a very reliable source when it comes to the snow at the end of Nov.

[P-M]

Cold night here last night -2 when I left for work this morning and the first morning since last Winter I had to sit with the engine running to de-frost the windsceen. Can't see any prolonged freezing spells any time soon but then the weather in this country does and will change. I am going out on a hunch (yes not scientific I Know) but I think we will see some decent cold spells this winter. Last November here has raised my expectations to an all time high so I need to lower them so I don't get too dissapointed!

Edited November 7, 2011 by Paul-Michael

[Coast]

Autumn and Winter forecast from Simon Keeling posted back in July:

Just adding it for comment and reflection as the Winter develops, I have no view about the validity or otherwise of what he is forecasting in the video.