The Winter 2011/12 Forecast Thread

[NorthernRab]

Aviemore?

How did you find out it snowed in these settlements?

From what I heard it was over 500m on the mountains.

I can confirm that it snowed in Aviemore on the 19th of October, but it was quite brief it seems. Just checked to see if my memory served me correctly and there were a few updates from friends on Facebook on that day.

Snow and sleet showers in October are not very unsual in the East Highlands, they would be a bit rarer for Lady of the Storm as she lives in the West Highlands, where temperatures are warmer and most of the settlements considerably lower in altitude.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Another one to add to the mix, a bit more positive, if you like that type of thing....

http://markvoganweat...long-range.html

A fantastic winter forecast for any cold and snow weather fan. I'm really not sure whether to believe it or not but my heart says yes.

[Wynn D Woo]

Another one to add to the mix, a bit more positive, if you like that type of thing....

http://markvoganweat...long-range.html

Seems like a bit of hopecasting to me, and too much basing on last winter but I guess he has at least stuck his neck out and issued a forecast.

[Staffordshire]

Did he predict correctly last year?

Another one to add to the mix, a bit more positive, if you like that type of thing....

http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/p/long-range.html

[Aaron]

I hope Scandinavia gets another harsh winter.. I'll be gutted if Stockholm doesn't have 5 months of continuous snow cover again!

[ZONE 51]

Another one to add to the mix, a bit more positive, if you like that type of thing.... http://markvoganweat...long-range.html

Yes this is a very good forecast and certainly enjoyed reading it being a snow fan! i think the factors being used are right and that includes volcanic activity, that is something not mentioned very much! the reason for that is because its not known exactly how lots of smaller eruptions can affect our weather,but we know what can occur due to large prolonged ones.

I agree with what he says in his forecast, although we could imagine a more toned down version materialising than this, but then we can think about last winter and the one before, it can happen! its going to be hard to get the timing of these events right, but they are on the way-and thats not ramping! its when it comes, i have my views on what and where, and they will be in my forecast soon, the pattern we are in now cannot last throughout winter but we could end up with periods of very cold/cold dry weather not producing snow.

Edited November 1, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Ladyofthestorm]

I can confirm that it snowed in Aviemore on the 19th of October, but it was quite brief it seems. Just checked to see if my memory served me correctly and there were a few updates from friends on Facebook on that day.

Snow and sleet showers in October are not very unsual in the East Highlands, they would be a bit rarer for Lady of the Storm as she lives in the West Highlands, where temperatures are warmer and most of the settlements considerably lower in altitude.

Hi there Northern Rab I have only lived in the Western Highlands for the past 4 winters, previously I used to stay in East Coast of Sutherland, and there is nothing unsual or anything to get excited about, Snow to the mountains in October is normal, brief sleety, wet snow has fallen also to sea level areas. It was last year that was unprecesdented with snow lying deep in November. However, this year its a different ball game, winter will arrive but it will be in January!

[Isolated Frost]

Hi there Northern Rab I have only lived in the Western Highlands for the past 4 winters, previously I used to stay in East Coast of Sutherland, and there is nothing unsual or anything to get excited about, Snow to the mountains in October is normal, brief sleety, wet snow has fallen also to sea level areas. It was last year that was unprecesdented with snow lying deep in November. However, this year its a different ball game, winter will arrive but it will be in January!

I thought winter began on December 1st? No offence to you personally lots (I love reading your posts), but this is a general statement. Winter does not begin when a cold spell arrives, and it does not end when one ends, otherwise winter would come and go more times than a cabinet minister's dignity- it begins on Dec 1st/21st every year and ends on Feb 28th/29th or Mar 21st. Just for a bit of extra clarity.

We had more snowfall in Autumn than in Winter last year here in Durham! (snow fell on 7 days in November, just 6 days in December, 0 days in January and February)

[Ladyofthestorm]

Absolutely Isolated Frost, its early in thge mroning and Ive been up through the night with the babies, what I am saying is dont expect any significant cold weather before January, thats when winter will start proper and yes the early start to winter last year was very unusual and I cant see a repeat performance as the atlantic is pushing all the time.

[shedhead]

Still 30 days to go until the official start of Winter, but in the short term high temps and not low look set to make the news, with some November records almost certain to fall this week across Scandi in particular.

[Partholon]

Absolutely Isolated Frost, its early in thge mroning and Ive been up through the night with the babies, what I am saying is dont expect any significant cold weather before January, thats when winter will start proper and yes the early start to winter last year was very unusual and I cant see a repeat performance as the atlantic is pushing all the time.

What was your thinking in 2009 at this time?

[snowlover2009]

Mark Vogan is part of Accuweather isn't he? Plus, I heard hints from JB going for more cold for us this winter. It does look good.

I cannot get over that in 30 days it will be winter. Not officially, but some, like me class it as winter. Also that people will be in Christmas mode!

[November13]

People often get confused with Summer Time rather than Summer. When they say Summertime begins it refers to the start of the summer time zone for the clocks. It does not mean the start of summer and it is the same for winter. We were still on summer time until Saturday.does that mean it was summer? Personally I think the seasons are March/April/May Spring - June/Jul/Aug -Summer Sept/Oct/Nov Autumn the whole of December/Jan/Feb Winter.So winter starts at the end of November. Having said that I consider November more of a winter month than an Autumn month.

[Staffordshire]

Maybe going on holiday for two weeks from the 15th dec wasn't such a great idea! I could be stranded or worse, miss some snow!!!!

Edited November 1, 2011 by Staffordshire

[Coast]

Mark Vogan is part of Accuweather isn't he?

Lorry driver and amateur meteorologist I believe:

http://www.dailyreco...86908-22495536/

[Strider]

Mark Vogan is part of Accuweather isn't he? Plus, I heard hints from JB going for more cold for us this winter. It does look good.

I cannot get over that in 30 days it will be winter. Not officially, but some, like me class it as winter. Also that people will be in Christmas mode!

I was under the impression (certainly from the Met Office) that the official start to winter is indeed Dec 1st. Dec 21st is used by older folk

Edited November 1, 2011 by Strider

[Isolated Frost]

4.3c, 2.4c and 5.0c were my original guesses- and I will stick by them. But if I was to 'update', I would say 4.0c, 2.9c and 4.8c.

But I will say my original lrf is the one that I will stick by and the one I will look back on on the first of March.

[sundog]

I dont know who this guy is but i would not mind if his forecast came true.

http://markvoganweat...long-range.html

Edited November 1, 2011 by sundog

[cyclonic happiness]

I was under the impression (certainly from the Met Office) that the official start to winter is indeed Dec 1st. Dec 21st is used by older folk

Funny to think that winter last year was practically over by the time winter started

[bobbydog]

Funny to think that winter last year was practically over by the time winter started

yes, similar weather here this time last year i believe, while we watched the snow march through europe on your thread, then suddenly, winter started with a vengeance!

[D.B.]

I am very confident there will be lying snow on christmas day. I really can't see it been any different from 2009 and 2010?

[asjmcguire]

Without wishing to be labelled a ramper.

I got Piers Corbyn Novmber forecast today

If he is right he will surprise a lot of religious model watchers in about 11 days time - as the models are showing no hints of cold.

But don't forget exactly the same happened last year - in fact when I showed some of the local people here for November forecast they said - so pretty much a repeat of last November then?

I know though - it is Piers - I know he has a bit of a reputation - but my heart and gut tell me things are changing....

Indeed one of my amateur meteorologist friends has points out to me that while the op is staying mild more and more ensemble members are trending to cold.

On Monday our low was: 10.9'c

Tuesday: 2.5'c

It is currently frosty outside.

I guess we will see.

[Ladyofthestorm]

What was your thinking in 2009 at this time?

In the september I said cold and snowy

http://null.co.uk/weather.forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=12053&p=238418#p238418

that was where I said that post.

actually its quite scarey how close I got...lol

http://null.co.uk/weather.forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=11800&p=237479#p237479

On Friday sept 10th 2010 I posted this

Im going for middle of november, once the sun sets on the polar regions for the winter, it will cool down very very quickly.

bloomin heck I wasnt wrong...lol

[November13]

Depends who you believe:Met Office

Can't see any cold coming our way!

UK Outlook for Wednesday 16 Nov 2011 to Wednesday 30 Nov 2011:

Unsettled weather is likely to continue with a generally mild west to southwesterly winds for much of the period. These will bring in bands of rain interspersed with some drier and brighter weather. Temperatures are likely to be around average for the time of year. Rainfall for this period is also likely to be around normal but southwest Wales and parts of southern England could see above average amounts. Sunshine values should be around average but could be above average for Scotland and eastern parts of England. There is likely to be some mist and fog overnight with a risk of frost.

Updated: 1120 on Tue 1 Nov 2011

[Aaron]

People still searching for a cold snap? The outlook mentions frost which is perfectly normal for November, I'm just eagerly awaiting my first day of snow (doesn't have to settle) and I'll be happy!