The Winter 2011/12 Forecast Thread

[November13]

Need to get the cold uppers for that. The last couple of years it has been 1 or 2c and still raining in Scotland at ground level.Frustrating!

[Ladyofthestorm]

Agreed November, we had an awful lot of freezing rain rather than snow last year.

[shedhead]

Agreed November, we had an awful lot of freezing rain rather than snow last year.

I don't remember many incidences of freezing rain, can you elaborate plz?

[Ladyofthestorm]

Up here where we are we had very cold uppers, but lower level temps were a bit warmer and as a result no snow just small round lumps of ice, not as large or as white as hail. It is something we get alot of up here, when rain bands hit milder sea air, we are on the west coast. Further inland you can have as much as a foot or two of snow.

[Backtrack]

Up here where we are we had very cold uppers, but lower level temps were a bit warmer and as a result no snow just small round lumps of ice, not as large or as white as hail. It is something we get alot of up here, when rain bands hit milder sea air, we are on the west coast. Further inland you can have as much as a foot or two of snow.

I've never actually seen freezing rain. It must be pretty cool.

[VillagePlank]

Well, here's my attempt at this winter's CET using a numerical analogue forecast:

• Dec:2007, 0.30757,0 4.9C
  
• Jan:2005, 0.307548, 6.0C
  
• Feb:1808 0.645690 2.8C
  

How was this done?

For each month I took the last 11 years of data for that month (so 11 years of Decembers) and then compared that 11 year block incrementally to every 11 year block in the CET series year by by year calculating the covariance statistic (how much the two sets of data change with each other) for each comparison. The highest covariance wins.

Not sure how good this is: it didn't pick up last years December record low - but perhaps this method wouldn't, anyway, since there is no analogue for a record breaking low temp The amount of years back to compare is also a crucial factor with the results varying wildly. I went for 11 years because of the sunspot cycle - I had to choose something!

If this is any good (and, to be honest, I doubt it) looks like we have to wait to Feb for good snow chances.

Edited November 2, 2011 by Sparticle

[shedhead]

Up here where we are we had very cold uppers, but lower level temps were a bit warmer and as a result no snow just small round lumps of ice, not as large or as white as hail. It is something we get alot of up here, when rain bands hit milder sea air, we are on the west coast. Further inland you can have as much as a foot or two of snow.

Agh right, that is not freezing rain tho. Freezing rain is supercooled droplets of water that turn to ice on contact with cold surfaces and is brought about when warm upper air overrides cold air at low level.

[cyclonic happiness]

Depends who you believe:Met Office

Can't see any cold coming our way!

UK Outlook for Wednesday 16 Nov 2011 to Wednesday 30 Nov 2011:

Unsettled weather is likely to continue with a generally mild west to southwesterly winds for much of the period. These will bring in bands of rain interspersed with some drier and brighter weather. Temperatures are likely to be around average for the time of year. Rainfall for this period is also likely to be around normal but southwest Wales and parts of southern England could see above average amounts. Sunshine values should be around average but could be above average for Scotland and eastern parts of England. There is likely to be some mist and fog overnight with a risk of frost.

Updated: 1120 on Tue 1 Nov 2011

Here is the update from the same time last year........not really any hint as to an epic cold spell is there?

"UK Outlook for Sunday 7 Nov 2010 to Tuesday 16 Nov 2010:

Remaining unsettled with outbreaks of rain or showers at times. These will be occasionally heavy, particularly across western upslopes. This rain is likely to turn to snow over the higher hills of Scotland. The best of any drier weather is likely towards the south and east of the UK, where there are likely to be some sunny spells at times. Winds are likely to be strong at times, especially at first, with gales along the coasts. Temperatures will generally return to average or perhaps slightly below average in the case of the far north of the UK and it is likely to feel chilly compared to recent days. Risk of overnight frosts across the country, particularly across the north of the UK.

Updated: 1147 on Tue 2 Nov 2010"

[johnholmes]

Here is the update from the same time last year........not really any hint as to an epic cold spell is there?

"UK Outlook for Sunday 7 Nov 2010 to Tuesday 16 Nov 2010:

Remaining unsettled with outbreaks of rain or showers at times. These will be occasionally heavy, particularly across western upslopes. This rain is likely to turn to snow over the higher hills of Scotland. The best of any drier weather is likely towards the south and east of the UK, where there are likely to be some sunny spells at times. Winds are likely to be strong at times, especially at first, with gales along the coasts. Temperatures will generally return to average or perhaps slightly below average in the case of the far north of the UK and it is likely to feel chilly compared to recent days. Risk of overnight frosts across the country, particularly across the north of the UK.

Updated: 1147 on Tue 2 Nov 2010"

If my memory serves me correctly the 'switch' came about 5 November in their outlooks? Have you got that one?

After that it was remarkably consistent for, again I think, several weeks?

[cyclonic happiness]

Here we go John

UK Outlook for Wednesday 10 Nov 2010 to Friday 19 Nov 2010:

Cold northerly winds will bring sunny spells with some showers on Wednesday, especially over eastern areas and probably turning wintry on hills in the north. Rain then spreads from the west later on Thursday with some hill snow possible in Scotland. During next weekend low pressure systems will move east bringing rain or showers, especially over northwestern UK, but with some drier and clearer spells between. The start of the following week is likely to see a brief interlude of drier weather before a return to rain and showers from the west. It will be generally windy throughout, especially as low pressure systems pass close to the UK. Temperatures start cold, especially in the north, and then recover to nearer normal later in the period, especially in the south.

Updated: 1158 on Fri 5 Nov 2010

Still doesn't really give much towards where we went?

But it wasn't til aroud the 16th that the MET really started to give some definate clues......I can't blame the,, no-one really had a clue did they?

"UK Outlook for Sunday 21 Nov 2010 to Tuesday 30 Nov 2010:

A good deal of cloud around this weekend, showers or longer spells of rain affecting southern and eastern parts on Sunday when the far south will also be quite windy. Next week conditions will soon turn colder. Northern and eastern parts in particular will remain unsettled and, at times, windy with showers and hill snow, these showers turning increasingly wintry with a risk of snow to lower levels developing later in the week. Parts of the Midlands and Irish Sea coastal areas also at risk from wintry showers later. Temperatures largely below average for the time of year and feeling cold, especially where conditions are windy. The cold theme then continues into the last week of November, with northern and eastern parts most at risk from wintry weather."

[Partholon]

In the september I said cold and snowy

http://null.co...=238418#p238418

that was where I said that post.

actually its quite scarey how close I got...lol

http://null.co...=237479#p237479

On Friday sept 10th 2010 I posted this

Im going for middle of november, once the sun sets on the polar regions for the winter, it will cool down very very quickly.

bloomin heck I wasnt wrong...lol

I have to sign up to see those. I was hoping you were going to say you predicted a mild winter that year ):

[ukpaul]

Up here where we are we had very cold uppers, but lower level temps were a bit warmer and as a result no snow just small round lumps of ice, not as large or as white as hail. It is something we get alot of up here, when rain bands hit milder sea air, we are on the west coast. Further inland you can have as much as a foot or two of snow.

That sounds like graupel (from the German) which is created by water that freezes on a falling snowflake. Often seen when the ground temperature is above freezing alongside sleet.

[Snowmadsam]

Met forecasts sound interesting...What I am hoping for anyway...I remember November 25th or 26th, heavy snow hit western areas if I am correct......was loads of fun

Hoping for a change soon though this mild and wet weather is doing my head in...

[Ladyofthestorm]

That sounds like graupel (from the German) which is created by water that freezes on a falling snowflake. Often seen when the ground temperature is above freezing alongside sleet.

Thanks Paul, I didnt know that!

Met forecasts sound interesting...What I am hoping for anyway...I remember November 25th or 26th, heavy snow hit western areas if I am correct......was loads of fun

Hoping for a change soon though this mild and wet weather is doing my head in...

Doing my head in as well. We hardly saw the sun after the first 4 days of October, cloudy and wet, or cloudy. I cant see anything changing to be honest for winter....looks like a 2006 er eeeek! Nearly there but not quite.

I have to sign up to see those. I was hoping you were going to say you predicted a mild winter that year ):

oops sorry I didnt think about that!

The first one said and I quote

Snowwhite on Sun Sep 19, 2010 9:33 pm

Cold and snowy for me, I wouldnt want to hedge which direction it will come from!

Ive got my reasons

1. La Nina event

2. solar minimum lag time

3. NAO staying negative

4. Gulfstream slowing down

5. Colder temperatures over Europe.

6. Ex hurricanes playing hide and seek in Greenland, instead of playing over here.

[Snowmadsam]

Thanks Paul, I didnt know that!

Doing my head in as well. We hardly saw the sun after the first 4 days of October, cloudy and wet, or cloudy. I cant see anything changing to be honest for winter....looks like a 2006 er eeeek! Nearly there but not quite.

oops sorry I didnt think about that!

The first one said and I quote

Snowwhite on Sun Sep 19, 2010 9:33 pm

Cold and snowy for me, I wouldnt want to hedge which direction it will come from!

Ive got my reasons

1. La Nina event

2. solar minimum lag time

3. NAO staying negative

4. Gulfstream slowing down

5. Colder temperatures over Europe.

6. Ex hurricanes playing hide and seek in Greenland, instead of playing over here.

Sounds good Ladyofthestorm likingyour theories

[phil nw.]

If my memory serves me correctly the 'switch' came about 5 November in their outlooks? Have you got that one?

After that it was remarkably consistent for, again I think, several weeks?

Looking at the 500hpa archive charts for the start of last November the one big difference to now is the absence of the stubborn euro.block.

This allowed the energy to push well across us and into Europe.

Eventually the Atlantic trough dug South along with the jet and the pattern reset with Height rises to our North by month`s end.

It didn`t happen overnight but the signs were there quite soon into last November --- the first widespread burst of polar air was across us by the 10th.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2010/Rrea00120101110.gif

[SLEETY]

"UK Outlook for Sunday 21 Nov 2010 to Tuesday 30 Nov 2010:

A good deal of cloud around this weekend, showers or longer spells of rain affecting southern and eastern parts on Sunday when the far south will also be quite windy. Next week conditions will soon turn colder. Northern and eastern parts in particular will remain unsettled and, at times, windy with showers and hill snow, these showers turning increasingly wintry with a risk of snow to lower levels developing later in the week. Parts of the Midlands and Irish Sea coastal areas also at risk from wintry showers later. Temperatures largely below average for the time of year and feeling cold, especially where conditions are windy. The cold theme then continues into the last week of November, with northern and eastern parts most at risk from wintry weather."

Have they changed this yet because their is NO sign of anything remotely "wintry " in the forseeable future.The Euro junk high still in charge.

At least we are getting weeks and weeks of mild weather now rather than later when winter starts .Imagine this sort of set-up six weeks later.

Having said that I still wouldn't bet against a bitterly cold spell turning up later if the Euro High starts building more NW rather than being stuck over SE europe?

[UV-RAY]

"UK Outlook for Sunday 21 Nov 2010 to Tuesday 30 Nov 2010:

A good deal of cloud around this weekend, showers or longer spells of rain affecting southern and eastern parts on Sunday when the far south will also be quite windy. Next week conditions will soon turn colder. Northern and eastern parts in particular will remain unsettled and, at times, windy with showers and hill snow, these showers turning increasingly wintry with a risk of snow to lower levels developing later in the week. Parts of the Midlands and Irish Sea coastal areas also at risk from wintry showers later. Temperatures largely below average for the time of year and feeling cold, especially where conditions are windy. The cold theme then continues into the last week of November, with northern and eastern parts most at risk from wintry weather."

Have they changed this yet because their is NO sign of anything remotely "wintry " in the forseeable future.The Euro junk high still in charge.

At least we are getting weeks and weeks of mild weather now rather than later when winter starts .Imagine this sort of set-up six weeks later.

Having said that I still wouldn't bet against a bitterly cold spell turning up later if the Euro High starts building more NW rather than being stuck over SE europe?

"UK Outlook for Sunday 21 Nov 2010 to Tuesday 30 Nov 2010:

A good deal of cloud around this weekend, showers or longer spells of rain affecting southern and eastern parts on Sunday when the far south will also be quite windy. Next week conditions will soon turn colder. Northern and eastern parts in particular will remain unsettled and, at times, windy with showers and hill snow, these showers turning increasingly wintry with a risk of snow to lower levels developing later in the week. Parts of the Midlands and Irish Sea coastal areas also at risk from wintry showers later. Temperatures largely below average for the time of year and feeling cold, especially where conditions are windy. The cold theme then continues into the last week of November, with northern and eastern parts most at risk from wintry weather."

Have they changed this yet because their is NO sign of anything remotely "wintry " in the forseeable future.The Euro junk high still in charge.

At least we are getting weeks and weeks of mild weather now rather than later when winter starts .Imagine this sort of set-up six weeks later.

Having said that I still wouldn't bet against a bitterly cold spell turning up later if the Euro High starts building more NW rather than being stuck over SE europe?

That's a big turnaround in a very short space of time, somehow I think it's way too progressive at this moment in time.

[KTtom]

Thats last years forecast!?

[UV-RAY]

Thats last years forecast!?

Thats last years forecast!?

Oh dear, a trip to specsavers tomorrow.

[Eskimo]

Thats last years forecast!?

LOL yeah I had to look at it twice, stop misleading people!!

[DAVID SNOW]

Oh dear, a trip to specsavers tomorrow.

Guess who i bumped into at Specsavers today?

Everyone.

[cyclonic happiness]

I posted them because John Holmes wanted to see them.

I was trying to point out how last year there wasn't a hint of the cold weather to come in the met office's updates at this time of the month.

[bluearmy]

thinking back to last november, the naefs picked up on the greenland/mid atlantic high anomoly at a range well in excess of T300 and counted down with unerring accuracy. i recall GP mentioning how strong the anomoly appeared, even at two weeks. we remain around 10 days from this timescale but i guess we're not far away from needing to take interest in the fi ens output if it begins to show consistancy around any interesting anomolies. the current noaa cpc for mid november doesnt look too far away from being interesting though.

[Cloud 10]

thinking back to last november, the naefs picked up on the greenland/mid atlantic high anomoly at a range well in excess of T300 and counted down with unerring accuracy. i recall GP mentioning how strong the anomoly appeared, even at two weeks. we remain around 10 days from this timescale but i guess we're not far away from needing to take interest in the fi ens output if it begins to show consistancy around any interesting anomolies. the current noaa cpc for mid november doesnt look too far away from being interesting though.

I remember those NAEFS charts,just a big black hole over southern greenland!

No such luck at the moment though.

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gens/naefs/run/naefs-0-0-240.png?12