The Winter 2011/12 Forecast Thread

[Gavin Hannah]

Thnx LotS.

[stewfox]

Just wanted to repost this, This was my thoughts for Novembers weather, posted way back in September,

Posted by EML Network on 13 September 2011 - 12:12 in Weather Discussion and Chat

Thought it about time to have an attempt at November...it's only 8/9 weeks away now, so the initial signs of what MIGHT come to pass, and the early signals, and trends are beginning to fall into place, plenty of time for things to change though, but anyway here goes nothing.

Jason's novice and totally incoherrant attempt at a November forecast

November starts off on a reletively settled note for the South and East with High pressure not too far away (well you wouldn't want to walk there, but if you was flying a plane it wouldn;t take long) !!

Low cloud, often broken up leaving some bright and crisp days here, but some notable cold nights, and some early frosts for the South.

Its very windy very wet and very mild which is almost the exact opposite, hope your going for a mild winter.

[stewfox]

I think people are forgetting the record breaking WARM temperatures some parts on the UK got last November before the cold arrived?? Anyone else remember that??

Tell me about it, its was

42c on 4th November 2010 and - 6c by the 18th December 2010. How soon people forget

Edited November 3, 2011 by stewfox

[Gavin Hannah]

Ok, From looking at the long range charts (as they stand) I'm going to go out on a limb and say that from Saturday 12th November.. it'll be cold weather with a risk of snow for at least 3-5 days.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Ok, From looking at the long range charts (as they stand) I'm going to go out on a limb and say that from Saturday 12th November.. it'll be cold weather with a risk of snow for at least 3-5 days.

What charts have you been looking at??

None of the charts I have looked at show that at all.

[shedhead]

Tell me about it, its was

42c on 4th November 2010 and - 6c by the 18th December 2010. How soon people forget

I'm really not sure of the point you are trying to make here, especially as the 42c you show was recorded in Turkey in Summer, not on Nov 4th.

[Radiating Dendrite]

I'm really not sure of the point you are trying to make here, especially as the 42c you show was recorded in Turkey in Summer, not on Nov 4th.

Maybe he had his heating on "extreme temperature" setting?

[November13]

Maybe he had his heating on "extreme temperature" setting?

I think that was a concorde moment for him ....right over his head!

[greybing]

I think people are forgetting the record breaking WARM temperatures some parts on the UK got last November before the cold arrived?? Anyone else remember that??

yes,i do.I think we should remember how ficle the weather can be .I personally am not concerned about how mild it is in relation to the chance of a cold winter and or cold spell. Edited November 3, 2011 by greybing

[EML Network]

Its very windy very wet and very mild which is almost the exact opposite, hope your going for a mild winter.

HA HA HA HA well on that basis, I'm going for the hottest winter since 1,200 BC :-)

In truth i'm going for a largely dry but cold start to Dec. cold and wet late dec.

Mixed Jan

and cold start to Feb, averaging mid month,

cold march

[November13]

Anyway I think we will have a typical winter. Mild with the occasional cold snap say 70/30 mild/cold. So Snow will come but maybe last a week at most. I think an above average or average winter temperature is on the cards. In any case as a skiier. Scotland seems to do better for snow above 2500ft when we have this type of freeze thaw. Last year was a real disappointment for us skiiers. All the snow came in December. The season just about finished in March and what was left was just a few patchy runs. Previously there has been little snow at ground level but up there it has been powder in April when we have a mixed winter. Better to have the winter over 3-4 months than all in one month.

[Summer Sun]

The weather is looking like staying mild for the foreseeable future with temperatures either normal or just above, I would not be suprised to see this month deliver no snow fall even the mountains in Scotland could struggle to see anything substancial meaning the ski centers will not be opening as early as they did last year, so far I think the main ski centres in Scotland have the slopes closed due to the lack of snow.

[November13]

The weather is looking like staying mild for the foreseeable future with temperatures either normal or just above, I would not be suprised to see this month deliver no snow fall even the mountains in Scotland could struggle to see anything substancial meaning the ski centers will not be opening as early as they did last year, so far I think the main ski centres in Scotland have the slopes closed due to the lack of snow.

Not Scientific but see below:

Cairngorm Ski Centre November 9th 2010

http://www.winterhig...p?21,2010-11-09

November 3rd 2011

see link - http://www.winterhig...ngorm-mountain/

Edited November 3, 2011 by November13

[Roger J Smith]

Just a brief update -- from my perspective, everything on track, expect some wintry outbreaks before November is done. I don't think the entire month will be mild and snow-free, especially the last ten days.

[Gavin Hannah]

What charts have you been looking at??

None of the charts I have looked at show that at all.

I will clarify lol. The 500, NH500 and snow risk all seem to point to colder air and a risk of snow over higher ground from 13th/12th onwards. (At least, thats my interpretation). I know thats a while off yet, but I have a hunch. lol.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Just a brief update -- from my perspective, everything on track, expect some wintry outbreaks before November is done. I don't think the entire month will be mild and snow-free, especially the last ten days.

Steady as she goes Roger....

BFTP

[Dorsetbred]

Just a brief update -- from my perspective, everything on track, expect some wintry outbreaks before November is done. I don't think the entire month will be mild and snow-free, especially the last ten days.

Ahhhh welcome to the pleasuredome

[asjmcguire]

Yeah..... not really seeing this mild that people keep talking about......

[ZONE 51]

:rofl:

November starts off on a reletively settled note for the South and East with High pressure not too far away (well you wouldn't want to walk there, but if you was flying a plane it wouldn;t take long) !!

Could we have some more lines like that it cheers me up! great sense of humour!

Edited November 4, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Radiating Dendrite]

I will clarify lol. The 500, NH500 and snow risk all seem to point to colder air and a risk of snow over higher ground from 13th/12th onwards. (At least, thats my interpretation). I know thats a while off yet, but I have a hunch. lol.

A word of warning, the GFS snow charts are not exactly reliable.

The most important thing to look out for is the 850hpa temps. If you see -5 850 temps encroaching on the UK then that is one of the most important building blocks for low land snow. The GFS is currently not showing this until the last image of the model run, 384 hours out.

[Ladyofthestorm]

RD is quite right, they can be out by quite a way, best to look at the 500-1000 thichness for the 528 dam line, direction of wind (as this is significant for rain shadow effect and the precipitation charts together. To be honest I cannot see any wintry stuff falling before middle of December now, now given how active theatlantic is.

[Radiating Dendrite]

RD is quite right, they can be out by quite a way, best to look at the 500-1000 thichness for the 528 dam line, direction of wind (as this is significant for rain shadow effect and the precipitation charts together. To be honest I cannot see any wintry stuff falling before middle of December now, now given how active theatlantic is.

Hi Lots,

You keep saying "how active the Atlantic is". I do not see an over active Atlantic, it seems pretty sluggish really, with a fat trough spinning off the occassional weak low pressure system, unable to shift the blocking pattern to our east as seen below:

The archive image below is an active atlantic with a strong positive NAO:

[TEITS]

RD is quite right, they can be out by quite a way, best to look at the 500-1000 thichness for the 528 dam line, direction of wind (as this is significant for rain shadow effect and the precipitation charts together. To be honest I cannot see any wintry stuff falling before middle of December now, now given how active theatlantic is.

I don't mean to be rude but how anyone can make that prediction based on the current pattern is beyond me. A quick glance at the archives clearly shows how quickly it can change. I made this mistake in early Nov 2009 when I was rather downbeat at the prospects for winter as I was basing this on the weather pattern at that time. Thankfully I was proved wrong when some wonderful winter synoptics arrived in mid Dec.

[ukpaul]

I don't mean to be rude but how anyone can make that prediction based on the current pattern is beyond me. A quick glance at the archives clearly shows how quickly it can change. I made this mistake in early Nov 2009 when I was rather downbeat at the prospects for winter as I was basing this on the weather pattern at that time. Thankfully I was proved wrong when some wonderful winter synoptics arrived in mid Dec.

Indeed, for those who are looking there are increasing signs of a pattern change mid-November which may give wintry blasts to Scotland in the short term but which are a good set up for the easterly/north easterlies that we had last year. It's starting to show up in many members of the GEFS ensembles as well as the ECM 32 day model (apparently, reporting from someone who has access to them).

[bobbydog]

I don't mean to be rude but how anyone can make that prediction based on the current pattern is beyond me. A quick glance at the archives clearly shows how quickly it can change. I made this mistake in early Nov 2009 when I was rather downbeat at the prospects for winter as I was basing this on the weather pattern at that time. Thankfully I was proved wrong when some wonderful winter synoptics arrived in mid Dec.

very true. people look at the models and say 'no foreseeable cold'. however, we only have to look at how vastly different the model evolutions are at the end of the run. any particular run will be dismissed as FI but people seem to forget that, even though unlikely, they are possible evolutions of the weather, based on the current pattern. also, how many times have we seen the models suddenly drop an idea and go off on a completely different track. all it takes is for an unlikely outlier to become the reality and off we go. as you say, last year changed suddenly from no prospects of cold, to 'proper winter'. no-one really can say for sure, but it could quite easily happen again.....