The Winter 2011/12 Forecast Thread

[stewfox]

I posted them because John Holmes wanted to see them.

I was trying to point out how last year there wasn't a hint of the cold weather to come in the met office's updates at this time of the month.

How many times can you tell people December isn't nailed as a mild month yet or we cant say who's garden will it snow in on xmas day yet.

Edited November 2, 2011 by stewfox

[damianslaw]

Speaking of the Meto forecasting cold spells - how did it do in late Nov 09 - early Dec 09 just ahead of the very cold period of mid Dec- mid Jan 10. I seem to recall it didn't see that cold spell on the horizon neither well not until the last minute but I could be wrong. That cold spell also came out of the blue after a long protracted very mild spell indeed ... mmmm common theme here , how we have suddenly been plunged into very cold conditions after lengthy mild periods..

Those bemoaning how current prospects look poor for any quick cold build up - again think back to late Nov 09 when we had endured a very very mild Nov and everyone then was saying no cold on the horizon no cold weather likely.

[johnholmes]

I posted them because John Holmes wanted to see them.

I was trying to point out how last year there wasn't a hint of the cold weather to come in the met office's updates at this time of the month.

indeed you did-thank you

To those who don't read the detail, like the year clearly shown, perhaps a lesson for the future.

[mountain shadow]

Can anyone remember the anomally chart for last years cold spell showing the massive height rises over Greenland which were actually off the scale?

[The watcher]

I remember that chart MS, can't remember where to find it in the archives though.

I won't be doing my forecast just yet, I'm tempted to, but nobody seems certain what will happen in the next two weeks nevermind into December, not even the models or teleconnections. It's all skewiff.

Radiating Dendrites forecast is what I'd be tempted to say is looking favourable at the minute, but who knows.

[ZONE 51]

Winter forecast 2011/2012 - elements of an Arctic winter

Factors:

•ENSO(La-Nina)

•PDO

•QBO

•AO/NAO

•Solar Activity

•Volcanic dust layers

•Ocean temperatures

•Jet stream-moving south

November - mid month i predict a settled period with colder air and with some frost and fog at night in many regions with high pressure, there is an increasing risk of a colder more wintry development towards the later november period from the north and then a northeasterly flow. i do not expect substantial snow or severe cold, an Atlantic block setting up (atlantic high pressure) during this period, it is possible that we see the lows from the west moving in for a while at the end of the month.

December - after a milder and rainy start high pressure builds and leads us into cold and frosty conditions, i expect this to be a colder high with severe frosts, eventually snowfall becomes widespread from the northeast as the high pressure cells move into the right setup to pull down a cold air flow as we move into the mid month period, i expect a significant spell of snowfall during this period with a risk that it could turn severe, but at this stage i can say cold with snow showers but how severe we wont know until nearer the time, but the risk is there, many heavy snow showers blown in from the north/northeast, these conditions lasting most of the month with it being cold dry at times.

I did expect some low pressures to move across with mild air and possibly a storm, but now i see the increasing chances that cold and mostly drier conditions will result.

January - i expect the cold to continue with snow staying on the ground from last month in many regions, cold and dry with snow showers for early month, some normal colder air at times as high placements move around bringing air flows from a less cold direction at times before very cold conditions setup again in the north as we move into mid january ,by this time low pressure systems crossing France as the Atlantic wakes up could bring snowfall to southern areas as cold air gets pulled down from the north, a high pressure block stopping a northerly track of the lows, the jet stream could move north during january but i dont think it will do until late month, cold and drier air further north brings snow showers from the north and northeast as we move into the end of the month for all areas. the snowfall events this month i expect to be highly disruptive with widespread deep snowfall, i have more confidence in this than what snowfall december could bring.

February - mild periods with rainfall as the Atlantic brings in weather fronts with the jet stream edging north, but with some cold spells at times some snow events are likely as the fronts come up against the cold air, this could affect a wide area, i do see more risk of cold staying with us then last years mild conditions, this increases the risk of snowfall.

spring warmth to come much later than last year, i dont see a quick warm up.

february could be a snowy month depends on how active the atlantic becomes and if it brings in milder air faster which could result in possible snowfall at first before atlantic conditions move in.

Winter 2011/12:

• Below average temperatures

• Less widespread rainfall from the Atlantic

• Drier then average

• Above average widespread snowfall

• Higher risk of blizzards in January as Atlantic fires up

• More high pressure than normal early winter

• Disruptive widespread snow and ice events

• More frost and fog than normal due to high pressure and snowfall events

Overall i predict a cold and snowy winter with some periods of less cold weather affecting all areas, some significant and disruptive snowfall events throughout winter, late winter seeing more snow battleground situations then last winter as mild air pushes against cold air.

ESS

Edited November 3, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Cheshire Freeze]

I'm surprised we havent seen Ian Brown around lately, ive noticed that the really cold pools of air are getting less cold every year even alot of blocking around doesnt guarantee these really cold airmasses at the 850 hPa level and that we have to rely on inversion cold for our wintry weather, shcoking lack of cold pools on GFS 12Z even with strong blocking around. yes its only November on the run but you would expect more cold pools around than that.

What a load of tripe, you're looking at a small snapshot of the Northern Hemisphere (northwest Europe) during the first weekend in November with synoptics which dictate cold pooling around other areas of the NH (displaced from our little location) and extrapolating to conclude that 'cold pools of air are getting less cold'. Oh dear Lord.

[Radiating Dendrite]

I remember that chart MS, can't remember where to find it in the archives though.

I won't be doing my forecast just yet, I'm tempted to, but nobody seems certain what will happen in the next two weeks nevermind into December, not even the models or teleconnections. It's all skewiff.

Radiating Dendrites forecast is what I'd be tempted to say is looking favourable at the minute, but who knows.

Yes I would agree with this!!

I must admit, my November forecast is looking ok at the moment. That being a fairly benign month, with the trough out west and high to the east.

[Ladyofthestorm]

Can anyone remember the anomally chart for last years cold spell showing the massive height rises over Greenland which were actually off the scale?

I think I can, it was reading 1075mb at some point and I cant remember if it was for the december cold snap or the November one.

and the mega one

If my memory serves me really well I think it the greenie high built really rapidly on both occasions. I dont know what caused the rapid build in pressure though.

But I think the atlantic is too active to allow this to happen again. Last year I remember ex hurricanes heading up the labrador straight, this isnt the case this year.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Maybe the Atlantic is behaving the way it is because of external drivers and has nothing to do with it being able to scupper the building of a GHP or Scandi HP?

In a way for heavy widespread snow Atlantic activity is needed and welcomed, just how its activity is driven. I remain optimistic that a cold set up develops later in Nov and that a serious cold spell is to be had this winter.

BFTP

[shedhead]

Maybe the Atlantic is behaving the way it is because of external drivers and has nothing to do with it being able to scupper the building of a GHP or Scandi HP?

In a way for heavy widespread snow Atlantic activity is needed and welcomed, just how its activity is driven. I remain optimistic that a cold set up develops later in Nov and that a serious cold spell is to be had this winter.

BFTP

So you keep saying BFTP, as you did on several occasions last Jan/Feb. Rather than just stating the above highlighted sentance, could you please explain your reasoning behind it? Thanx in advance.

Edited November 3, 2011 by shedhead

[Ladyofthestorm]

Being fair to old blasty, he very nearly got that one right, it missed us by a couple of hundred miles, so cant give him flack for that one.

Picks olde Blasty off the floor having fainted at LOTS being nice to him! lol

[shedhead]

Being fair to old blasty, he very nearly got that one right, it missed us by a couple of hundred miles, so cant give him flack for that one.

Picks olde Blasty off the floor having fainted at LOTS being nice to him! lol

Are you Mr Corbyn by any chance.... That's one of his classic defences.

[EML Network]

Just wanted to repost this, This was my thoughts for Novembers weather, posted way back in September,

Posted by EML Network on 13 September 2011 - 12:12 in Weather Discussion and Chat

Thought it about time to have an attempt at November...it's only 8/9 weeks away now, so the initial signs of what MIGHT come to pass, and the early signals, and trends are beginning to fall into place, plenty of time for things to change though, but anyway here goes nothing.

Jason's novice and totally incoherrant attempt at a November forecast

November starts off on a reletively settled note for the South and East with High pressure not too far away (well you wouldn't want to walk there, but if you was flying a plane it wouldn;t take long) !!

Low cloud, often broken up leaving some bright and crisp days here, but some notable cold nights, and some early frosts for the South.

The SW of the UK always at risk of catching the odd shower here and there, as they are closer to the effect of Low Pressure systems still feeding in off the atlantic much further to the north , not quite so cool under the cloud cover, and a little more breezy at times, but nothing that would blow your hat off your head.

Wales and central england, will be on the whole a little more overcast, and struggle to see as much broken cloud as further south, still though with the odd sunny breaks, but feeling quite damp on the whole, windier over wales, where it will feel colder, less windy in the midlands, where a more mixed start to november can be had, nd showers effecting the majority from time to time

Eastern england will fair best at the beginning of the month, more in the way of sunshine, and sheltered from the strongest winds, feeling quite pleasant and quite autumnal, a bit of a boring start to november for you guys, but at least you'll be able to enjoy setting fire to a big wooden horse on the 5th

North east england will start November with plenty of showers, and some longer spells of rain here, feeding in off the North sea, and also catching a few from Low Pressure systems feding off the altantic, some brisk winds, but again nothing that would stop you from running 100 metres in sub 10 seconds if you was an olympic 100 metres runner, overcast, damp, and feeling quite cold.

NW England, generally cold, wet, windy, overcast, and not the place to be if your feling suicidle, nothing extreme, just a bit pants if you like anything other than rain, and constand low cloud cover.

NW Scotland, here is likely to see more active weather, some strong winds on occasion, but with more breaks in the cloud, plenty of rain to be had here, plenty of morning frosts, and perhaps some moutain snow.

NE Scotland, I think this is where it will feel coldest, with some early sleetyness at low levels, not quite so windy as the West, but more overcast, and feeling damp, lots of frost, and perhaps the odd early snow shower on top of the hills , and again mountain snow.

MID NOVEMBER

As we head into the middle part of the month, i forsee things staying pretty much settled on the whole.

Southern England, is likely to be more under the influence of Low Pressure feeding in from the north/ North West, so less in the way of sunshine, and more in the way of rain, but the frosts overnight dissapear, so mirky, with fog /mist, and the winds beginning to pick up, feeling colder by day due to the change in drection of the wind.

SW England , I thinnk you guys will have a better mid month than beginning, with more in the way of sunshine than anywhere else, not so overcast as early month, and less in the way of wind, so now it's your turn to have some overnight frosts.

Wales paints a similar picture, but with more in the way of wind, feeling on the whole cold, and more chance of cathing the odd shower, a typical mid Autumn set up to be had here.

Midlands feeling cold, an increasingly strong wind, coming from the north, but bright on the whole here, bar the odd shower here and there. some overnight forsts.

NW and NE England, both feeling cold, both areas feeling the bite of the wind, time to start putting on your coats when you go out, and plenty of central heating systems being switched on both by day and by night, not so many open windows.

Scotland will feel cold, and it will be wet, with plenty of sleet to low levels, perhaps even the odd brief snow shower, and plenty of moutain snow, perhaps herlading an early opening ski season here.

End Of November

Southern England now under the full influence of Low Pressure systems feeding in from the North and West, windy, wet, even stormy, little in the way of sunshine, feeling cold, and it's our turn for the coats to go on, and the central heating, no snow, no sleet though, perhaps the chilterns, or north downs catching a brief snow shower overnight, but not ammasinng to much, maybe one could build a snow ant, but ont a snow man.

SW England, you guys have it lucky again, more mild, still cold, but not as cold as elsewhere in the country, and more in the way of sunshine, a few showers from time to time, and winds gentle on the whole.

Eastern England, cold, and windy, a few brighter intervals, but plenty of rain, sleet, and in the NE of England in perticular perhaps some early snow.

NW England, cold, very wet, very windy indeed, perhaps some extreme windy weather here, gusting to 80-90 mph at some point, before the month is out, sleetyness around, and the odd snow shower, but again not amounting to anything significant., generally a stormy time here for you lot,

Scotland, and exteme NE of england, will be cold, windy, and wet.

plenty of snow for NE Scotland, even to low lying levels, sleet, mixed with wet snow for NE england.

broken up well and interspersed with sunny intervals, so with the excpetion of the mountains, the snow that does fall is unlikely to ammass , lots of frost overnight, and feeling quite raw

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

So you keep saying BFTP, as you did on several occasions last Jan/Feb. Rather than just stating the above highlighted sentance, could you please explain your reasoning behind it? Thanx in advance.

No reason to say it again then I posted my reasons in the 'building blocks' section. Perturbation Cycle, -ve PDO general prominent -ve NAO state and jetstream moving south/readily being meridional, we have seen it elsewhere being way south, we may well experience that here in few weeks and looking at current SSTs on unisys I think we may well see a widespread cold NH. Hope that helps.

The La Nina scuppered the late Jan Feb set up, its influence became major player.

For some reason I can't upload charts. We saw an attempt made for an NE'ly/easterly reload 26/7 Jan but the pattern flattened. Wrong call, indeed it was, as I didn't think the 'typical' La Nina pattern would take over and I thought that the strength of the cold pattern would win out as it was an exceptional cold pattern with record cold periods early winter.

BFTP

Edited November 3, 2011 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[johnholmes]

But I think the atlantic is too active to allow this to happen again. Last year I remember ex hurricanes heading up the labrador straight, this isnt the case this year.

take a look at the charts for early November last year, none of the synoptic charts, indicated what subsequently happened, not that I am suggesting the same is going to happen this year!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Being fair to old blasty, he very nearly got that one right, it missed us by a couple of hundred miles, so cant give him flack for that one.

Picks olde Blasty off the floor having fainted at LOTS being nice to him! lol

Heavy ain't I? lol Oh and less of the OLDE!!! :smilz38:

BFTP

Edited November 3, 2011 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[November13]

The charts are not showing anything of note. Can't believe it's 3rd November and I have not had a ground frost. The Scottish mountains are bare not a sign of snow. We might have to pin our hopes on December for the start of any winter weather. November is just bleak at present.

[Gavin Hannah]

Hey everyone, my first post, although I have been lurking for a while now. Not much of a forecaster, I just like to look at the charts and see what everyone else is thinking. As you can imagine, by my handle, Im looking for the cold and snow.

Anyway, I know the long range charts have a very remote chance of materialisng but I thot I'd post these.

Be kind folks....

[weathe20]

take a look at the charts for early November last year, none of the synoptic charts, indicated what subsequently happened, not that I am suggesting the same is going to happen this year!

I think people are forgetting the record breaking WARM temperatures some parts on the UK got last November before the cold arrived?? Anyone else remember that??

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

Would be pleased if ESS's forecast came to fruition

Edited November 3, 2011 by Never-Snows-In-Notts

[Osbourne One-Nil]

We might have to pin our hopes on December for the start of any winter weather.

Which would seem logical as it's not winter until then!

[Gavin Hannah]

Does anyone else have this nagging gut feeling that by the end of Nov, the weather will have kicked into full on winter mode?? Or is the last two years mega winters just giving me false hope?

Although, I too remember last autumn and 09/10 autumn being on the warm side then out of nowhere, it was as if the arctic had arrived over night, which i suppose it kind of did.

I just noticed, the chart I posted above for the 19th of nov (i know its a long way off) looks alot like the one from 26th Nov 10 posted by Lady of the storm further above.

Edited November 3, 2011 by MadSnowboarder

[November13]

Which would seem logical as it's not winter until then!

Very good. Historically we have had snow and ice in November so as far as I am concerned the middle of November is winter!

[Ladyofthestorm]

Are you Mr Corbyn by any chance.... That's one of his classic defences.

not unless Ive sprouted a carrot and a brace of neeps then no.........lol

Hey everyone, my first post, although I have been lurking for a while now. Not much of a forecaster, I just like to look at the charts and see what everyone else is thinking. As you can imagine, by my handle, Im looking for the cold and snow.

Anyway, I know the long range charts have a very remote chance of materialisng but I thot I'd post these.

Be kind folks....

Hello there and a very warm welcome to the mad house.