The Winter 2011/12 Forecast Thread

[shedhead]

Do you think they spend a whole day discussing what phrases to use ?

'Not expecting a particulary cold winter', covers average, above average and a fair bit below average.

So average winter CET of 6c we would get 'as we said not particulary cold'

A CET of 2c , as we said not expecting a record breaking cold and as we said unlikely not impossible etc

I predicting a varible winter with varible sunshine and varible cloud cover with temperatures tending to rise over time as we go into late spring.

Yes I do. After recent LRF'ing disasters the MO are far keener to ensure they don't get things wrong, rather than concentrating on getting things right, indeed the terminology he

used only served to strenghten my belief.

Edited November 7, 2011 by shedhead

[Downburst]

Autumn and Winter forecast from Simon Keeling posted back in July:

Just adding it for comment and reflection as the Winter develops, I have no view about the validity or otherwise of what he is forecasting in the video.

Interesting, I've tried to check the latest CPC data and it does look very average for the winter months, no getting away from that. Unless I am reading it all wrong. A lot of data up there so I might not be reading it correctly. I know a lot of folks don't think a lot about NOAA and CPC data but I reckon if it was showing cold it would be quoted. Now also average is a hell of a lot better than above average if you like cold, so not too much to worry about.

[kold weather]

I wouldn't stress to much about the CFS forecast, for its being too agressive with the La Nina from the looks of things, its one of the models flaws IMO in that more often then not it over-develops ENSO events. That may not make a huge amount of difference to the end result of winter but a weaker L/N is probably going to overall be of more use then a stronger L/N...but then again any sustaied -NAO will make a difference...

[Iceberg]

Totally agree Kold. CFS is perhapes the second most aggressive with the La Nina deepening and quite an outlier compared to the other Numeric and Deterministic forecasts.

Re last nights program, good to see NETW getting shown on it also that Morrisons use Netw ?...There thoughts from their weather provider sounded pretty similar to Stuarts thoughts.

Re La Nina and CFS is could be that it over strengthens the Pacific ridge which in turn pushes too much energy into the Jet as it gets into the Atlantic. The average forecast is for La Nina to stay at- 0.8 to -1.3 over the winter months on average

Forgot to add the program was pretty neutral IMO re Met Office IMO. The quote about no extreme cold likely seemed more in response to a question by the presenter as they were asking whether another cold or severe winter was going to happen. IT wasn't really a specially worded sentence to prove anything right or wrong.

[johnholmes]

Autumn and Winter forecast from Simon Keeling posted back in July:

Just adding it for comment and reflection as the Winter develops, I have no view about the validity or otherwise of what he is forecasting in the video.

since then the CFS charts he was using have changed about a dozen times so its very hard to judge how relevant his prediction is. If you are going to forecast a season or more ahead you have to use something but its being able to take a stand back look at a series of charts such as SST's and others that is the key. Even then as I'm sure Stewart (GP) might agree the conflicting outlooks make it extremely difficult to decide which option to go for.

We still have a heck of a lot to learn from the distant teleconnections but contiuing to attempt lrf work a season or a month ahead will slowly improve our knowledge and accuracy I'm sure. It will be a long slow process but the accuracy will improve of that I am sure-but probably not in the lifetime of at least quite a number of us on this forum. 20 years or more down the line we MIGHT be at about the position we are in for month down the line now for a season ahead but it might take longer than that.

Edited November 7, 2011 by johnholmes

[syed2878]

I got to say i dont have much trust for the met office after their bb cue forecast they went forecasted avrage winter last year and look what happend.

[Gavin Hannah]

I think the MO like to sit on the fence so they can say they're forecast was neither wrong or right. TBH tho, it is pretty difficult to call it. I have a feeling that by next weekend, the models will be leaning more towards a nice cold and snowy winter.

I did say there would be snow on the hills in Scotland by next weekend so I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

[Downburst]

I think the MO like to sit on the fence so they can say they're forecast was neither wrong or right. TBH tho, it is pretty difficult to call it. I have a feeling that by next weekend, the models will be leaning more towards a nice cold and snowy winter.

I did say there would be snow on the hills in Scotland by next weekend so I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

I think that if the MO felt they could give an accurate LRF they would. And I mean even to the idea of "this month will be colder than or wetter and milder than average etc. They are professional scientists and perhaps one of the best bodies of such in the world. I can't see that they are fence sitting so as they can say they were right or wrong. You know this whole thread is getting no concensus on a LRF that is accurate becasue no such LRF exists. We are all and myslef included looking for it and I do appreciate all the effort, but we must lay off the met office as they won't play the game.

Now the good news is we have the Models to look at and we will get at least 10 days notice of something building,

[P-M]

Is someone taking the **** (swear filter is on) I mean if this http://menmedia.co.u...t-of-the-winter is happening with a frost then god knows what will happen if it actually snows!

Edited November 7, 2011 by Paul-Michael

[summer blizzard]

The way I see it, you must expect the opposite of what they say.

They're terrible at LRF's!

I do hope that you have not been looking at the media reviews of their forecasts because the Met Office LRF's before they stopped them being public were mostly correct. They claimed a 66% success record and i recall somebody in 2008 reviewing that as been correct.

[Liam J]

I got to say i dont have much trust for the met office after their bb cue forecast they went forecasted avrage winter last year and look what happend.

They are not the first and they certainly won't be the last meteorological organisation to have a long range forecast go belly up!!

Remember the more recent claim ''Shades of 76'' summer forecast?

The Meto's success rate is actually very good despite the odd blunder. The Meto serve the nation and have a duty to do so, and because of this when things don't go quite as planned the public are quick to get their daggers out. Shame they aren't so quick to praise when the forecast is correct.

[johnholmes]

They are not the first and they certainly won't be the last meteorological organisation to have a long range forecast go belly up!!

Remember the more recent claim ''Shades of 76'' summer forecast?

The Meto's success rate is actually very good despite the odd blunder. The Meto serve the nation and have a duty to do so, and because of this when things don't go quite as planned the public are quick to get their daggers out. Shame they aren't so quick to praise when the forecast is correct.

ah, there you have it Liam, I cannot ever remember being praised for getting a forecast correct when dealing with the media. Oddly enough working with the RAF one did occasionally receive a sort of pat on the back, somewhat similar from sea pilots in the oil industry but rather more grudging there!

Part and parcel of being a forecaster-we all develop fairly thick skins about forecasting or else decide to do something else. That does not mean it does not hurt at times.

[Hughsey]

Can I ask what people are basing there predictions of cold coming near to the end of the month? To my untrained eye, the GFS shows nothing of any particular cold and neither do any LR forecasts.

I appreciate that anything for the end of the month is in FL but what are these predictions based upon?

[Aaron]

They are not the first and they certainly won't be the last meteorological organisation to have a long range forecast go belly up!!

Remember the more recent claim ''Shades of 76'' summer forecast?

The Meto's success rate is actually very good despite the odd blunder. The Meto serve the nation and have a duty to do so, and because of this when things don't go quite as planned the public are quick to get their daggers out. Shame they aren't so quick to praise when the forecast is correct.

Yes and some people will be very cautious with Net Weather's forecasts. The BBQ Summer they promised in 2009 I think really made a lot of people lose faith in the Met Office and it's completely understandable.

[Liam J]

ah, there you have it Liam, I cannot ever remember being praised for getting a forecast correct when dealing with the media. Oddly enough working with the RAF one did occasionally receive a sort of pat on the back, somewhat similar from sea pilots in the oil industry but rather more grudging there!

Part and parcel of being a forecaster-we all develop fairly thick skins about forecasting or else decide to do something else. That does not mean it does not hurt at times.

Well we as a nation love to complain and we are always quick to judge and put people or organisations down if the info and predictions they provide prove incorrect in some way. How many times is the Meto summer forecast 2009 going to be brought up and used as ammo against them despite very good performance and accuracy in the years following on from this?

During the very cold spell last year the Meto provided very accurate forecasting and weather warning data which was handled with expertise throughout December. I relied on their accuracy over this time which enabled me to make two journeys during the very cold spell over Nov/December, one over to Hull (400 mile round trip) and another journey to Newcastle to pick my brother up for Christmas. This may just have been a stroke of luck for me and yes it did get a bit hairy once mainly due to me leaving it late to get out of Hull as very heavy snowfall was spreading from the east resulting in whiteout conditions on the M62. But I did have to plan these journeys not to coincide with any heavy snowfall events and I needed to access accurate forecasts and weather updates in order to do this. Credit where credit is due IMO.

What about the likes of Exacta weather for example, if we had believed the rubbish printed in the press over the last few months we would have been shivering in -20c and be buried under snow by now!!

Edited November 7, 2011 by Liam J

[legritter]

i expect that most of us are hoping for at least 5 weeks of dream charts this winter . at the moment im trying to stay focused on the good pointers . a gut feeling of something of worth this winter . what do i base my instincs on . firstly , many parts of south and other locations low on rainfall , could this be the winter of low pressure running across the south with fronts being squeezed dry . ok the last 3 winters have seen good snowfall for many but not all , look back in history , many good uns come in packs ,with atleast one with a good old high over scandy and lows a plenty over or to our south . although its been mild lately , none of those raging sw winds ,mild wet and v windy , theres a high close by im sure given time ,it will go north for its winter holiday .take a look around the northern hemisphere weather sites , some good cold starting to show up , als night sky a good ink black , when clear , i will also state that i think the met office are a level headed ,trustworthy , and very professional body . i had the great pleasure to be invited to the forecast office in bristol for 4 days in feb 1978 , the amount of dedicated work in trying to forecast a mayor snowstorm which dumped 30cms where i lived . plus blizzards .chart after chart ., phne call after phone call , contacting organisations , etc .i hope all our fellow members on NET WEATHER HAVE A GOOD WINTER / WHAT EVER YOU DREAM FOR THIS WINTER . CHEERS LEGRITTER / FROM A COLD FOGGY DRIZZLY WINSCOMBE , .

[johnholmes]

Can I ask what people are basing there predictions of cold coming near to the end of the month? To my untrained eye, the GFS shows nothing of any particular cold and neither do any LR forecasts.

I appreciate that anything for the end of the month is in FL but what are these predictions based upon?

hi

Most of those predicting the probability of a cold end to the month are not really doing so on the GFS output alone, indeed much of it is not connected with that at all. To get an idea of how the weather might be in more than 5-10 days ahead one has to use things called teleconnections which you have probably seen their term used on here and also in the technical thread.

Paramters such as 500mb anomaly charts, AO, NAO, MJO etc etc.

Have a look in the Net Wx Guides section there is a reasonable explanation of what the terms mean and some idea of how they are used.

As to a prob of it turning cold? A week ago I would have not given it much credence, maybe 15-20%, its a week closer and some of those tc's are still pointing in that direction, so I'd up it to nearly 50% and rising.

hope that helps a bit. Pm me if you wish, always happy to try and help or suggest someone who would be better at it than me.

[summer blizzard]

Can I ask what people are basing there predictions of cold coming near to the end of the month? To my untrained eye, the GFS shows nothing of any particular cold and neither do any LR forecasts.

I appreciate that anything for the end of the month is in FL but what are these predictions based upon?

It depends how cold you want to go. GFS and ECWMF would both deliver inversions so a fairly good chance of frost.

[ZONE 51]

I like the guy from Morrisons. He seems a very reliable source when it comes to the snow at the end of Nov.

You quoted my post that said..

What i see is a taster or a flirt of cold before the end of the month, it will take time for the new pattern or new style of weather to evolve, this could take a few weeks, at this stage i cant see us getting plunged into a deep cold period, but cold ,especially the North-at first, this being mid to late month, the milder conditions will keep trying to break in, but eventually i see that we do get a whole new pattern to cold conditions and bringing snowfall from the northeast as we head through early to mid december, when the taster arrives later this month it could get shunted back again with rain and milder airflows. it takes time to build up the cold blocks, signals are there and they will be built, although the risk is there it just wont make it for many weeks, but i am quite confident by the various outputs and signals that it does make it and mild flows will be brushed away for a long period with cold winning the battle. ESS.

and then you said...

I like the guy from Morrisons. He seems a very reliable source when it comes to the snow at the end of Nov.

What do you mean by that? did i have to show the evidence? i keep it simple as there are so many readers that prefer it that way rather then all the data/technical stuff, all though it is a good way for those to learn if i did do it that way, maybe i might do that, i like posting the way i do and i find it easyier for me to do, i find it hard to explain data although i use it and understand what i do.

I understand what you are saying if its what i think it means what you said, anyone could just guess at a cold snowy spell at whatever point in whatever month, but i have done the work and i have released a forecast, and it was using data/analysis..

Sorry if i read it wrong!!

Edited November 8, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

Aaah! edit sorry (MadSnowBoarder) read another post below about the Morrisons man from Will it snow! yes i saw that and i know what you mean now! il delete this now

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Can I ask what people are basing there predictions of cold coming near to the end of the month? To my untrained eye, the GFS shows nothing of any particular cold and neither do any LR forecasts.

I appreciate that anything for the end of the month is in FL but what are these predictions based upon?

Hughsey

Some of us use solar and lunar driven cycles and influences [magnetic influences] RJS uses Planetary magnetic field affects. Thet are alternative methods and suggest that teleconnections and synoptic patterns respond to these.

BFTP

[November13]

Hughsey

Some of us use solar and lunar driven cycles and influences [magnetic influences] RJS uses Planetary magnetic field affects. Thet are alternative methods and suggest that teleconnections and synoptic patterns respond to these.

BFTP

I think it's called wishfull thinking! I have seen no evidence with half a dozen charts and half a dozen different forecasts.

[November13]

Does this look like a cold chart?

[johnholmes]

Does this look like a cold chart?

not for the UK area; the cold air is associated with each trough west and east of the country.

Until the major upper wave length changes then nothing much will change at the 850mb level, somehwt colder surface air due to the high edging into the country is probable.

In the longer term, 2-3 weeks away, then again a prob of a change to deeper colder air say about 50% at the moment?

Edited November 8, 2011 by johnholmes

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I think it's called wishfull thinking! I have seen no evidence with half a dozen charts and half a dozen different forecasts.

Read the posts will you, what on earth are you posting a chart for tomorrow for? :blink:

BFTP