The Winter 2011/12 Forecast Thread

[feb1991blizzard]

do we know just what, even roughly, what the Met O advice to the government was, assuming that they actually have done this?

anyone able to help please?

Im not totally sure but i know that the national grid base their forcast of energy use on the winter forecast. Here is a link but im not sure there is any weather report in there, i cant open PDFs but i did read it, someone posted it on the Daily mail winter 2011/2012 thread and from what i remember it was based on expectations of an average winter.

http://www.nationalg...as/TYS/outlook/

EDIT : It looks like its just based on the raw data from these met office long range models. looks like its the probability maps that there based on rather than the ensemble mean, not sure if this is wise.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks

Anyway maybe im wrong but i could swear i read some text somewhere.

Edited October 26, 2011 by feb1991blizzard

[Liam J]

Im not totally sure but i know that the national grid base their forcast of energy use on the winter forecast. Here is a link but im not sure there is any weather report in there, i cant open PDFs but i did read it, someone posted it on the Daily mail winter 2011/2012 thread and from what i remember it was based on expectations of an average winter.

http://www.nationalg...as/TYS/outlook/

Here is a section taken from the PDF, I would say the Most likely probability is for an average winter.

Weather

7. The Met Office have now ceased publication of their long term winter weather

forecast, however, their website continues to provide long term probability maps.

The September maps for Europe for the period of December through to February

suggests the following probabilities for the UK and most of Europe:

a 0 – 40% probability of above normal temperatures

a 20 – 40% probability of near normal temperatures

a 20 – 60% probability of below normal temperatures

8. Last winter’s weather illustrated the variability of winter weather. It was an average

winter, based on in National Grid’s 83 year weather history, but contained the coldest

December and the 5th warmest February.

Edited October 26, 2011 by Liam J

[Polar Maritime]

Met office have just called for an Average Winter, based on Sun Spot activity and other normal factors just on Radio 4.

Edited October 26, 2011 by snowrob

[feb1991blizzard]

Met office have just called for an Average Winter, based on Sun Spot activity and other normal factors just on Radio 4.

Did they give any details on how it may pan out on a month by month basis?

[Snowstorm1]

Did they give any details on how it may pan out on a month by month basis?

Id also be interested too as average winter could be a very cold month and a very mild month with an average month for example would be average overall

Edited October 26, 2011 by Snowstorm1

[Aaron]

I doubt all three winter months will be average, how often does that happen? Probably a mixture of mild and cold.

[summer blizzard]

Not sure what the National Grid are going by but last winter was 1.6C below average (coldest third of winters infact), saw the 2nd coldest December on record, not the first and saw the 22nd warmest February, not 5th.

I doubt all three winter months will be average, how often does that happen? Probably a mixture of mild and cold.

Winter 2006 may be one of the closest (-0.5, +0.1 and -0.7).

[feb1991blizzard]

Id also be interested too as average winter could be a very cold month and a very mild month with an average month for example would be average overall

I hope the winter is average for temperature , 6 weeks out of the 12 with a 7c positive temperature anomaly and a massive positive rainfall anomaly in the other 6!

Edited October 26, 2011 by feb1991blizzard

[A Winter's Tale]

The question is what is an average winter month and winter and what is an average CET for a winter month? I would imagine an average winter would mean a decent amount of snowfall events aswell as some lying, some cold temperatures aswell as milder periods.

As mentioned above, an average winter could have some notably cold weather aswell as mild.

[Aaron]

An average winter here will always include some snow.. an average winter in central London might not.

[lorenzo]

Met Office predicting average forecast - hmmm.

That is a nice big fence they are sitting on.

[BARRY]

Met Office predicting average forecast - hmmm.

That is a nice big fence they are sitting on.

They don't sit on it, they own the damn thing. With all the computing power on offer all they can say is an average

[johnholmes]

Im not totally sure but i know that the national grid base their forcast of energy use on the winter forecast. Here is a link but im not sure there is any weather report in there, i cant open PDFs but i did read it, someone posted it on the Daily mail winter 2011/2012 thread and from what i remember it was based on expectations of an average winter.

http://www.nationalg...as/TYS/outlook/

EDIT : It looks like its just based on the raw data from these met office long range models. looks like its the probability maps that there based on rather than the ensemble mean, not sure if this is wise.

http://www.metoffice...al/gpc-outlooks

Anyway maybe im wrong but i could swear i read some text somewhere.

yes in the pdf for the weather section, they quote that UK Met no longer do seasonal forecasts. They note that they do show the raw outputs from various sources and also quote ECMWF seasonal output also available on some sites. There is also mention of the 30 day outlook Met issue.

Its a long report much of it makes little sense to me being of a very technical power generation/storing/forecasting use etc etc but there is nothing in it to suggest that UK Met have issued any winter forecast.

thanks for the link, anyone who can open pdf format its worth a quick browse especially the comments about the weather and consumption/demand.

Met Office predicting average forecast - hmmm.

That is a nice big fence they are sitting on.

perhaps, just perhaps, whatever you have seen issued, its exactly what they expect? Maybe that is not what you want to read?

I am still not convinced that they have made any textual outlook for the winter. Showing charts for several months ahead is part of every weather centres portfolio of data.

[Polar Maritime]

Did they give any details on how it may pan out on a month by month basis?

No, they said they can only base there forcast on the winter over all. They also said that the decline in ice in the Northern Hemisphere leads to a more easterly driven winter.

[johnholmes]

No, they said they can only base there forcast on the winter over all. They also said that the decline in ice in the Northern Hemisphere leads to a more easterly driven winter.

who was the person from the Met Office being interviewed, do you know?

thanks

[Polar Maritime]

who was the person from the Met Office being interviewed, do you know?

thanks

Sorry JH, i missed alot of the interview. It was on radio 4 earlyer it may be on there website, it would be nice to hear the whole interview.

[johnholmes]

Sorry JH, i missed alot of the interview. It was on radio 4 earlyer it may be on there website, it would be nice to hear the whole interview.

what was the programme rob-we may then be able to trace it on iplayer?

[Polar Maritime]

It was on around 8.15 this evening, i didnt catch the programme i was to busy drying the pots

[johnholmes]

The only thing I can find on Radio 4 was a programme at 2100 that almost exclusively talked about last winter with lots of snow scenes but nothing about any forecast for the coming winter from anyone-taken from the Radio 4 full programme schedule and available as a 3 minute clip so they may have talked about the coming winter on sections they are not showing?

[ZONE 51]

I could be able to get the text version of the interview so il be back in a bit!

[greybing]

Long range forecasting should be banned.

That did make me laugh,thankyou.Not in a bad way just a cool way.

[Lancashire Lass]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b01685zk

Is this it?

[ZONE 51]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/programmes/schedules/fm

cant find it, all there line up is on that list in link

[Polar Maritime]

It could be, it was 8 8.15 when i heard it on radio 4.

[johnholmes]

http://www.bbc.co.uk...rammes/b01685zk

Is this it?

thanks LL that was it-anyone wants to listen then from about 8m21s to 9m31s is from Dr Adam Scafe(?) I think. Worth a listen.