Corbyn - Winter Warning Of Exceptional Uk Cold And Snow

[chionomaniac]

I Espy Brr Con!

[su rui ke]

The man is a genius

This thread is turning into a bit of classic. It's starting to remind me when we had Ken Ring (of moonbeam fame) on.

[snow drift]

The man is a genius

Making money from selling something that has been wrong in the past, is wrong now and could be wrong in the future. Genius!!

I think you need to look at the people who purchase his info and buy what he spouts. A definition to describe these individuals is more important and will give you the answer of whether the man is a genius or something different.

When was the last time you spent some of your hard earned on something knowing that it would be average? When was the last time you spent some of your hard earned on something knowing that it would be great?

Most people would do the later. You need look no further to find the reason for the sensationalism. Why will he make excuses when it goes wrong? His sales and income stream would drop considerably if he was to admit.

"Here is a forecast that you can purchase, not been right many times in the past but you will love to read it as it describes what you would want from your winter" Not a banner head line to encourage people to purchase.

The funny thing is, there would still be some daft people willing to part with their hard earned.

[Optimus Prime]

Massive, exceptional, extreme, damaging and very extreme.

I was laughing at that youtube video. His choice of words are nothing other than remarkable.

[Coast]

I am surprised that as the dominant weather feature for the beginning of the forecast looks like it will be this weeks battering Atlantic lows and the subsequent rain and gales, this wasn't picked up in the forecast or updates for the first section of the time-scale under review (unless that is the 'blast' being referred to?)

Of course it is only one small period out of the whole time under forecast, and as with other LRF's / Winter forecasts, we would be wise to wait until the end of that period to analyse and critique it.

[Methuselah]

The man is a genius

So was Einstein! But it didn't make him into a reliable long-range weather forecaster...

[Buzz]

Im not a fan of Corbyn but this isn't because of his different forecasting techniques. My main gripes is his forecasts always seem sensational, also he rarely admits when he his wrong. Take for example the Dec forecast and the current model output. Now I wouldn't be surprised if he claims some success because snow falls on the mountains of Scotland over the next 7 days. Obviously this isn't unusual and is perfectly normal for this time of year.

Couldn't have put it better myself.

[Coast]

Weatheraction have updated their December forecast yesterday.

http://twitpic.com/7lvmid

They do concede that the "Atlantic circulation patterns are different" and "This leads to some significant changes in our Brit + Ire + EU forecasts for December; and 5 other extremes announced in Madrid need review"

[osmposm]

.....There seems to be a great resentment of Corbyn on this site, presumably because he uses different forecasting techniques to most on here and of course because in terms of long range forecasts he gets it right more often than anyone here....

(1) No, it's because he is astonishingly arrogant in what he says and how he says it, and uttery and rudely dismissive of any other approach to forecasting and those who follow it.....combined with a frequent refusal to acknowledge that a forecast was just plain wrong when it was, or (as in this case) to blame it on unexpected solar events that we can neither confirm nor deny, because he will not explain how we are meant to relate it to the weather on Earth.

(2) No, he doesn't, if you look at them all - unless you buy his after-the-event adjustments by a few days, a few hundred miles, and a tendency to describe normal, seasonal, somewhat wintry weather on mountain tops as part-confirmation of forecast exceptional cold, or normal, seasonal somewhat windy weather in the northern isles part-confirmation of forecast exceptional nationwide storms.

A little humility and honesty on his part would go a long way to defusing the negative opinion most here hold of him.

Edited November 30, 2011 by osmposm

[Summer of '47]

I'm glad to see he has acknowledged that his forecast was wrong (albeit using what looks like pure technobabble to blame an unforeseeable event - which kind of nerfs his standpoint that his method means weather is predictable months in advance). Perhaps his supporters will have the grace to do the same and that they were wrong to maintain it was correct despite ongoing evidence to the contrary.

I remember when his forecasts were for seemingly endless killer storms and surges so it'srather ironic that he has missed this stormy spell that started last week with the Faroes, Scottish Islands and Norway getting a battering.

[stewfox]

I'm glad to see he has acknowledged that his forecast was wrong (albeit using what looks like pure technobabble to blame an unforeseeable event - which kind of nerfs his standpoint that his method means weather is predictable months in advance). Perhaps his supporters will have the grace to do the same and that they were wrong to maintain it was correct despite ongoing evidence to the contrary.

I remember when his forecasts were for seemingly endless killer storms and surges so it'srather ironic that he has missed this stormy spell that started last week with the Faroes, Scottish Islands and Norway getting a battering.

Yes he has and done it now

Respect is due.

Everyone seems to knock the genius because they don't understand his forecasting methods so they say 'technobabble' ??

Edited November 30, 2011 by stewfox

[Coast]

Everyone seems to knock the genius because they don't understand his forecasting methods

Can you explain them to us then please, as I get this when I try to look it up

Methodology:

This page is being updated - please try later.

http://www.weatheraction.com/pages/pv.asp?p=wact43

[stewfox]

(1) No, it's because he is astonishingly arrogant in what he says and how he says it, and uttery and rudely dismissive of any other approach to forecasting and those who follow it.....combined with a frequent refusal to acknowledge that a forecast was just plain wrong when it was, or (as in this case) to blame it on unexpected solar events that we can neither confirm nor deny, because he will not explain how we are meant to relate it to the weather on Earth.

Why would you give any credence to other forecasts if their usually wrong.

Some people believe without a warmer stratosphere you won't get colder in uk.

Unless thats accurate all the time why would I give it the time of day ?

Can you explain them to us then please, as I get this when I try to look it up

Methodology:

http://www.weatherac...pv.asp?p=wact43

I have no idea why the site is down, Im sure he wouldn't want to share all his secrets

[Coast]

Im sure he wouldn't want to share all his secrets

Then I quote your previous post in which you said:

Everyone seems to knock the genius because they don't understand his forecasting methods

People cannot understand them when he won't tell them what they are

[Methuselah]

A little humility and honesty on his part would go a long way to defusing the negative opinion most here hold of him.

Absolutely! And, after his recent admissions, perhaps he's realized it too? Which would be good.

Everyone seems to knock the genius because they don't understand his forecasting methods so they say 'technobabble' ??

And I ain't convinced of that, either...

[DAVID SNOW]

Absolutely! And, after his recent admissions, perhaps he's realized it too? Which would be good.

And I ain't convinced of that, either...

Ok try this,the man is a MONEY making Genius.

[Dorsetbred]

Can you explain them to us then please, as I get this when I try to look it up

Methodology:

http://www.weatherac...pv.asp?p=wact43

Looking at his site it now shows:

Special UPGRADE statements on DECEMBER after forecast errors revealed an important transition from L (Lunar) type circulation to S (Stratospheric wind) dominant type.

[Methuselah]

Looking at his site it now shows:

Special UPGRADE statements on DECEMBER after forecast errors revealed an important transition from L (Lunar) type circulation to S (Stratospheric wind) dominant type.

Now that has the look of pseudoscience IMO???

[Dorsetbred]

And he has a nice stab at everybody, when he says...

"WATCH Standard Met - and the rest - slither and slide as scientifically predicted Solar-lunar-magnetic action give us weather they said wouldn't happen!"

But didn't he just say

Special UPGRADE statements on DECEMBER after forecast errors

I'm confused

Edited December 1, 2011 by Dorsetbred

[VillagePlank]

I know I'm dim, but if you are using external system methods (ie the sun, the moon, the giant teapot with Jack Sparrow living in it) to forecast weather - isn't it a cheat to start using internal factors (S-type) ? After all his website says that the problem with other forecasts is that they are using an internal description of the system rather than external causes ....

Here's the filament that upset his forecasts: http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=8674

Edited December 1, 2011 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

important transition from L (Lunar) type circulation to S (Stratospheric wind) dominant type.

I believe that is a similar reason he used of why the backend of winter 10/11 didn't pan out as he forecast.

Yep there shouldn't be such a big unforeseen issue as whats happened. RJS method hasn't suggested a cold December at all and he uses planetary magnetic field effects, lunar effects etc. I liked Roger's post when he said he predicts that Piers wishes he called his forecast of dec for Jan instead. Well a good start to that statement.

BFTP

[VillagePlank]

Well, I for one, would be amazed at a decent correlation between the moon and cold weather here in England.

I generated the synodic age of the moon, it's distance (in Earth radii), it's Latitude and longtitude to the ecliptic plane. I searched the CET data for all of the days where the temperature was less than the average temperature for that day across the whole series minus 3 standard deviations for the temperature for that day in the series.

Here's the results:

The range for these variables are as follows:

Age : 0.000053 < x < 29.529956

Distance : 56.000015 < x < 63.799982

Latitude : -5.1 < x < 5.1

Longtitude: -7.385122 < x < 367.718688

Moon values computed from here.

It seems to me that cold days happen no matter what the phase (synodic age) of the moon, no matter how near or far the moon is away, and regardless of where it is sitting on the ecliptic plane. I suspect untold riches and Nobel prizes await the first person to discern a pattern that can be used for prediction from that lot. I was kinda hoping that would be me - alas, not. I can categorically state that an exceptionally cold day is (marginally) more likely on the 12th calendar day of the month, though :lol:

Edited December 1, 2011 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[kippure]

And he has a nice stab at everybody, when he says...

"WATCH Standard Met - and the rest - slither and slide as scientifically predicted Solar-lunar-magnetic action give us weather they said wouldn't happen!"

But didn't he just say

Special UPGRADE statements on DECEMBER after forecast errors

I'm confused

This person sums up it up

On 01 Dec 2011, Saskia Steinhorst wrote:

It seems to me that the weather prediction for mid to late November in itself wasn't an "error". The solar activity in region 1343-1342 on Nov 10th, small proton storm on Nov 26 and the filament eruption in solar spot 1353 on Nov 27, resulting in a full halo CME impacting earth on Nov 28 would throw any prognosis for a loop. This actually proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that earth's weather is directly influenced by solar activity (or inactivity) which can abruptly alter any "set" weather patterns. Piers predictions for November may have been "off" but his theory has been completely confirmed again ;-)

[Crepuscular Ray]

So all those other organizations that called it right would actually have been wrong if not for the unpredicted magnetic filament? Is it not more likely that they called it right all along and the magnetic filament had no direct, immediate effect?

Edited December 1, 2011 by crepuscular ray

[DAVID SNOW]

This person sums up it up

On 01 Dec 2011, Saskia Steinhorst wrote:

It seems to me that the weather prediction for mid to late November in itself wasn't an "error". The solar activity in region 1343-1342 on Nov 10th, small proton storm on Nov 26 and the filament eruption in solar spot 1353 on Nov 27, resulting in a full halo CME impacting earth on Nov 28 would throw any prognosis for a loop. This actually proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that earth's weather is directly influenced by solar activity (or inactivity) which can abruptly alter any "set" weather patterns. Piers predictions for November may have been "off" but his theory has been completely confirmed again ;-)

Maybe he should state in his forecasts,that if the sun should decide to have a large crap at any point,this may well impinge on any forecast given, thus rendering said forecast useless