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Convective weather - 2nd-3rd November 2011

ZONE 51

By ZONE 51
in Storms & Severe Weather

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Robbie Garrett Seasoned

Robbie Garrett

Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Weather Preferences: MCC/MCS Thunderstorms
  • Location: London, UK
Posted

snowfall09 thanks!!! :good:

It was a potential import from France in the Summer in which the channel fizzled it out. A forum member named it 'Frenchie'! Benelux got a supercell from it so I remember.

A reference made about 2 months ago referring to a lump of moisture from a spanish plume, we called it 'frenchie'

Anything that comes from that directions is from France, hence why I called it Frenchie! Looks good on radar!!!

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Bluebreezer54 Seasoned

Bluebreezer54

Posted
  • Location: Northwood. NW London. 68m asl
  • Location: Northwood. NW London. 68m asl
Posted

It's increased intensity from 1900-1915, by the looks of things, anyone east of the GMT line will get something interesting, anyone west of that can laugh at a PROB30.......

That looks like a pretty good call at the moment, it may just veer a tad further east though. I hope not. Good luck for tomorrow btw Robbie.

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Robbie Garrett Seasoned

Robbie Garrett

Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Weather Preferences: MCC/MCS Thunderstorms
  • Location: London, UK
Posted

That looks like a pretty good call at the moment, it may just veer a tad further east though. I hope not. Good luck for tomorrow btw Robbie.

No problem mate, happy to help

It's what happened with the previous stuff we had that went through. Thanks a lot, hopefully I can get the weather I need to go for it, I cant be asked waiting around anymore!!

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MP-R Maestro

MP-R

Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
Posted

What the hell is that coming out of France! Approximately 125 miles further east than it should be. Hoping for some thundery stuff later in the night.

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Carl46Wrexham Rising Star

Carl46Wrexham

Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
Posted

Shhhhh Carl, we may be ok yet but will definately know tomorrow for sure lol. Have you had any storms lately Carl? :whistling:

Errrrrr...No...Nyet...Nada.

Seriously though Jane...looking ahead to April onwards next year for storms now. Here's to us getting some payback then eh...I think what with you being deprived for over 5 years and me for over 3,I reckon we deserve it.

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staplehurst Community Regular

staplehurst

Posted
  • Location: Norwich
  • Location: Norwich
Posted

What the hell is that coming out of France! Approximately 125 miles further east than it should be. Hoping for some thundery stuff later in the night.

Interestingly it's where the 0z models had it yesterday. Then the 6z suites took it further west (hence the initial MetO warnings for the Midlands) and they didn't push it back east until the 18z last night. Since then there's been good consistency on the 18z, 0z, 6z and now 12z to keep it where it is.

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Andy Bown Accomplished

Andy Bown

Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
Posted

I didn't expect to be posting in a convective thread again this year, but things are certainly looking interesting going into tomorrow. Just read a Fergietweet saying the UKMO hail modeling indicates possible 10-15mm hail.

He mentioned it in his tv forecast too.

Ian Ferguson tonight sayed that there could be large hail later tonight for our area which has made me a bit happier again. :)

Hope we get something.

But please please realise that it will not necessarily happen in your particular part of BA12! Or my part of BA12.

The large hail will only, ONLY, occur in the very core of a cell or cells and not everywhere will even have heavy showers.

It is simply amazing to have such potential in early November.

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bobbydog Maestro

bobbydog

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
Posted

Looks like its gonna miss us oh well!

probably not! i'm hoping its going to miss me though, built a bonfire for sat nite and trying to keep it dry with a tarp until then!

When will frenchie arrive?

hitting the kent coast now -

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

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Isolated Frost Rising Star

Isolated Frost

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

Frenchie v2- looks brilliant. Hampshire/W Sussex eastwards look good for torrential rain and possible thunder, moving n/nnw I'd imagine, so I expect east anglia, parts of e midlands and maybe the n yorkshire coast. I don't think I'll see much from it though- too far east. Wouldn't mind being at Eastbourne/Brighton/Dover right now watching this approach- fantastic.

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Purplepixii Enthusiast

Purplepixii

Posted
  • Location: Fareham, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Severe Weather events
  • Location: Fareham, Hampshire
Posted

Frenchie v2- looks brilliant. Hampshire/W Sussex eastwards look good for torrential rain and possible thunder

Oooh well I chuffing hope so because all I had in Winchester today was torrential rain and one thunderclap. Haven't even bothered to update my sig yet as one thunderclap does not a thunderstorm make! NW forecast still showing a good chance for storms in Fareham overnight tonight / tomorrow so here's hoping!

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Andy Bown Accomplished

Andy Bown

Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
Posted

The potential is so clear when you seen an isolated (non thunder producing) cell spring up on the Dorset coast within the last hour and then spawn a few smaller cells

around it as it moves North. Rain rates of well over 100mm per hour within the main cell and it seems to be heading straight for BA12!!

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Jane Louise Aficionado

Jane Louise

Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
Posted

Errrrrr...No...Nyet...Nada.

Seriously though Jane...looking ahead to April onwards next year for storms now. Here's to us getting some payback then eh...I think what with you being deprived for over 5 years and me for over 3,I reckon we deserve it.

Yep Carl we sure do deserve it . :D There's still tomorrow yet though. :drunk: If nothing happens again. I'll see you back in the no storms club.We've got to have some luck at some point surely!! :unsure:

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Isolated Frost Rising Star

Isolated Frost

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

I'd say;

Very heavy rain/potential t-storms: East Sussex, West Sussex, Kent, Hampshire, IOW, Surrey, London, Essex, Suffolk, Norfolk, Hertfordshire, Bedfordshire, Cambridgeshire, Lincolnshire, E Yorkshire.

Rain/possible t-storms: Berkshire, Oxfordshire, Buckinghamshire, Warwickshire, Northamptonshire, Leicestershire, Nottinghamshire, South Yorkshire, North Yorkshire.

This is what I expect from Frenchie II and it's my thoughts alone :)

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Isolated Frost Rising Star

Isolated Frost

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

Upgrade E Dorset, Wiltshire, E Gloucestershire, Birmingham and Derbyshire to possible category, with some localised flash rainfall and thunder possible in E Dorset and Wiltshire especially, moving north.

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Bluebreezer54 Seasoned

Bluebreezer54

Posted
  • Location: Northwood. NW London. 68m asl
  • Location: Northwood. NW London. 68m asl
Posted

^^ This website would be in meltdown.

It all looks to be swinging further east now, as so often seems to be the case as it reaches the South East corner.

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Jane Louise Aficionado

Jane Louise

Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
Posted

Upgrade E Dorset, Wiltshire, E Gloucestershire, Birmingham and Derbyshire to possible category, with some localised flash rainfall and thunder possible in E Dorset and Wiltshire especially, moving north.

Could you add North Gloucestershire please lol

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Isolated Frost Rising Star

Isolated Frost

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

Can anyone update whether the showers are moving from the sse/s/ssw on radar? I have nw radar snapshot on my mobile so cannot play the last few slides to see where the showers are moving. If they are from the ssw, ignore my last update, otherwise, I'll stick by it :)

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Carl46Wrexham Rising Star

Carl46Wrexham

Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
Posted

Yep Carl we sure do deserve it . :D There's still tomorrow yet though. :drunk: If nothing happens again. I'll see you back in the no storms club.We've got to have some luck at some point surely!! :unsure:

Well...if it happens...great...if not, I won't be too bothered....well, nothing like as bothered as I would be between April and September. Clean slate though come January 1st and NSC 2012 gets up and running.

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