Convective weather - 2nd-3rd November 2011

[gottolovethisweather]

Quite a bit of distant thunder coming from that direction.

I think some people need to be reminded that weather forecasts are not written personally for them or the air directly above their house.

No Thunder heard here today, sadly.

I love that final part of your post I believe it should be added as a sub heading by Paul against EVERY chat thread here on Netweather. Just imaging, come winter and god forbid, when the zonal type winters of past decades actually return.

As an aside, blimey, look at that latest radar return.

Cheers

gottolovethiswinter er........... gottolovethisweather

[Candice]

Hey, i've just remembered yesterday's BBC Points West forecast from Ian Ferguson.

I can distinctly remember him not mentioning about any thunder at all!

I think I will listen to him a bit more now.

You really don't give up do you, thundery rain was mentioned by all forecasters yesterday.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

THIS IS A MONSTERRRRR I DIDNT SEE ALL THAT IN SPAIN AS WELL!!!! THE RIVERS ARE GOONA SWELLLLLLLL

THIS IS A MONSTERRRRR I DIDNT SEE ALL THAT IN FRANCE AS WELL!!!! THE RIVERS ARE GOONA SWELLLLLLLL

[camiscool]

urm its gonna miss us?

[Chris K]

Could you add North Gloucestershire please lol

and South! Currently watching the path of the electrical activity in W France & Bay of Biscay, as this is where our local forecaster said to keep an eye on for potential showers/thunderstorms for W England in the early hours...shame i'll be asleep At the moment it's heading in a direction to hit the Isle of Wight, thats if it keeps moving that way and keeps it's strength..

[Staffordshire]

Good luck to you guys tonight!

[The PIT]

Zippo here as well today bar one light shower. Not bothered though zippo action goes towards getting the driest year ever recorded here.

[Carl46Wrexham]

Relax people...the channel will take care of that "monster"...what's left of it will whimper across the south east, while the Low Countries gets APOCALYPTIC storms the like of which never before witnessed!!!!!

[cj114]

As I thought. Either it was going to die out or miss me altogether.

Never mind, there is always Gin. I already had Thunder today, but I am rather greedy.

[A.J]

Aye, aye, look at this sudden development over the SW mIdlands, it's exploded from nothing in the space of 30 mins, drifting slowly north....very interesting!

[cj114]

Edit. After looking at Meteox it does look like we could get some showers during the night. [puts Gin away]

[Dorset_Weather]

Looking on sat24 there is some nice stormed traveling up the west coast of France and some nice big mushrooms exploding down on the bay of biscay :-)

[Isolated Frost]

If I had to draw a line on the most western edge of precip/thunder/frenchie influence- it'd probably be Bournemouth/IOW- Swindon/Oxford- Coventry/Leicester- Derby/Nottingham- Doncaster- York- Redcar

That's what I predict, but maybe lighter precip on the edge, much heavier inland. Heaviest stuff for SE/EA and quite hefty showers looking likely for Sussex soon.

[Team Jo]

Edit. After looking at Meteox it does look like we could get some showers during the night. [puts Gin away]

Keep it out! Gin cures all ills

I have to say it is weird having this kind of weather in November, almost like everything is happening 8 weeks later than normal.

Ah, 'Frenchie'... I must have been the most annoying person in the world spamming my twitter feed with news of this amazing storm that was going to zap and squash us flat. and then at 2am, we all disbanded in despair because it fizzled.

THIS is why you need gin (I have wine tonight)

[Robbie Garrett]

Does look like Frenchie V2 seems to be loosing it's intensity at the core, as it hits the channel. I've actually seen 5 bloody amendments to the TAF this evening, PROB40 TEMPO 0400/0406 2000 +RA BR OVC003 BECMG for London Gatwick!

PROB40 TEMPO 0400/0407 2000 +RA TSRA BKN004 BKN018CB for London Heathrow.

PROB30 TEMPO 0400/0406 3000 +TSRA BKN003 for London Stansted.

So the best place to be for these showers appears to be west of Heathrow, or east of the GMT line, with anything else heavy showers. A frontal wave and trough in the south merging across wales and central/northern england. Zone A ocassional 7km visibility in Showers of Rain, with isolated Heavy Showers of Rain with Ocasional Heavy Thunderstorm in rain at the the troughs.

Edited November 3, 2011 by Robbie Garrett

[Bluebreezer54]

^^ It all looks to be heading further east to me IF. It might clip the far South East corner, well in fact it is clipping the far South East corner, but spinning away east all the while . Now about that gin cj114 !

[Dorsetbred]

If I had to draw a line on the most western edge of precip/thunder/frenchie influence- it'd probably be Bournemouth/IOW- Swindon/Oxford- Coventry/Leicester- Derby/Nottingham- Doncaster- York- Redcar

That right discriminate us poor souls in Darzet yet again.

Peeed off that everything goes east or west of us, and squat diddly actually comes out way.

The stuffin dome is so big it changes weather patterns

[Robbie Garrett]

^^ It all looks to be heading further east to me IF. It might clip the far South East corner, well in fact it is clipping the far South East corner, but spinning away east all the while . Now about that gin cj114 !

It seems to be buckling and bending as the low moves west. MetOffice F215 charts says, this lot is moving NW at 40knots, the trough is moving 10 knots to the North North East.

[Isolated Frost]

So is this frenchie moving NW? If so, whatever I said before, add 50 miles east on to it (sorry Central-Southern England), but if it's moving N/NNW, then Dorset/Berkshire/Wiltshire/SE Midlands still have a good chance. Very tight. Best of it in Chichester-Folkestone personally thinking. That coastal stretch could get hammered. I wouldn't mind being on top of the south downs, the weald or the north downs tonight!

Going in the shower now, hopefully the channel will intensify the showers and move them N/NNW instead of NW. They seem to be doing more intensification in Brittany and Normandy than in the warm channel right now!!

[Robbie Garrett]

So is this frenchie moving NW? If so, whatever I said before, add 50 miles east on to it (sorry Central-Southern England), but if it's moving N/NNW, then Dorset/Berkshire/Wiltshire/SE Midlands still have a good chance. Very tight. Best of it in Chichester-Folkestone personally thinking. That coastal stretch could get hammered. I wouldn't mind being on top of the south downs, the weald or the north downs tonight!

It's what the MetOffice chart is saying and if you replay the rainfallradar which is faster at playing back than Metoffice, you can see it twists with the low to the west of Ireland.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

It's what the MetOffice chart is saying and if you replay the rainfallradar which is faster at playing back than Metoffice, you can see it twists with the low to the west of Ireland.

I second this...Its twisting all over the gaff..

[Mapantz]

To be brutally honest, i think a few of you are getting a bit carried away with the bulk moving up from the channel.

An NVA lobe is progged around Sussex/Kent, this is likely to bring down the rainfall rates, most probably the heaviest right on the coast of Kent and up in to East Anglia. Not saying there won't be some heavier bursts about, but otherwise, the MO would have an advisory out on this by now.

[Bluebreezer54]

So is this frenchie moving NW? .........

I just dont see it that way. On the radar the whole system seems to be moving more N/E. Ever hopeful though !

[staplehurst]

To be brutally honest, i think a few of you are getting a bit carried away with the bulk moving up from the channel.

An NVA lobe is progged around Sussex/Kent, this is likely to bring down the rainfall rates, most probably the heaviest right on the coast of Kent and up in to East Anglia. Not saying there won't be some heavier bursts about, but otherwise, the MO would have an advisory out on this by now.

Completely agree with you, rain yes, thunder quite limited (if any). Incidentally, there is none in the Channel right now.

[Biggin]

Looks like its open the windows and love the torrential rain here in an hour or two, is it very electrical tho???