December CET

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

Brace yourself, the daily star has reported that 85mph gales are on their way!!

Can you please stick to the topic Cyclone, not about tabloid reports. I feel your stalking my posts, or is it me being paranoid?

Edited December 2, 2011 by Timmy H

[Roger J Smith]

TABLE OF ENTRIES (updated to include late entries)

______________________________________

9.0 .. Craig Evans

8.9 ..

8.8 ..

8.7 ..

8.6 ..

8.5 ..

8.4 .. sparky1972

8.3 ..

8.2 ..

8.1 .. (joint) warmest 1934, 1974

8.0 ..

7.9 ..

7.8 .. Robbie Garrett

7.7 .. third warmest 1852

7.6 ..

7.5 ..

7.4 ..

7.3 ..

7.2 .. The PIT

7.1 ..

7.0 .. mrsmall, virtualsphere

6.9 .. stargazer*

6.8 .. reef

6.7 .. Gavin D

6.6 .. snow? norfolk n chance,

6.5 .. Liam J, kold weather, Lynxus, OldGreggsTundraBoy

6.4 .. Paranoid

6.3 .. Optimus Prime, Alex

6.2 .. Aceman, fozfoster, IRON-BRU

6.1 .. Polar Gael

6.0 .. corrigan87, Styx, Jack Wales, Timmy H

5.9 .. Stationary Front, BornFromTheVoid, Mr_Data, geoffw*

5.8 .. Thundery winter showers, Ben_Cambs, IAmJohnnyDisco, Mark Neal Ballooning*

5.7 .. TomSE20, RAIN, RAIN, RAIN

5.6 .. Don, davehsug, Bluebreezer54

5.5 .. Backtrack, Tony H, Scorcher

5.4 .. Roger J Smith, Tellow

5.3 .. SteveB, Kentish Man, Megamoonflake

5.2 .. Mark Bayley, Milhouse, JACKONE, Stormmad26

5.1 .. trickydicky, Lomondsnowstorm, Eugene, ruzzi (snowboy) .... ---- 1971-2000 average ---

5.0 .. frozencanals, Harve, AderynCoch

4.9 .. Isolated Frost, SP1986, BrightInBrighton, Anonymous21, Andy163, stewfox

4.8 .. Pete Tattum, Godber, Terminal Moraine, A Winter's Tale

4.7 .. Feb1991blizzard .......... ---- 1961-90 average ---

4.6 .. Blast from the Past, calum, Great Plum, Midlands Ice Age** .... ---- 1981-2010 average ---

4.5 .. damianslaw, The watcher, sundog

4.4 .. Koppite, DR Hosking,

4.3 .. Aaron

4.2 ..

4.1 .. summer blizzard, themusicland, DeepSnow* ...... --- median value of all years 1659-2010 -----

4.0 ..

3.9 .. BARRY

3.8 .. coram

3.7 .. Snowstorm1, Atlanticflamethrower

3.6 .. snowlover2009

3.5 ..

3.4 ..

3.3 ..

3.2 ..

3.1 .. Polar Continental

3.0 ..

2.9 ..

2.8 .. Rainbow Snow

2.7 ..

2.6 ..

2.5 ..

2.4 ..

2.3 ..

2.2 .. Paul T

2.1 .. paul tall

2.0 ..

1.9 ..

1.8 ..

1.7 ..

1.6 ..

1.5 .. DAVID SNOW

1.4 ..

1.3 ..

1.2 ..

1.1 ..

1.0 ..

0.9 ..

0.8 ..

0.7 ..

0.6 ..

0.5 ..

0.4 ..

0.3 ..

0.2 ..

0.1 ..

0.0 ..

-0.1 .

-0.2 .

-0.3 .

-0.4 .

-0.5 . third coldest 1676

-0.6 .

-0.7 . Second coldest 2010

-0.8 . Coldest on record 1890

_______________________________________________________________________

* each one denotes one day late

[Weather-history]

A long way to go for this month but it is peculiar how December "seems" to be resisting yet again the warming trend as past Decembers have over recent years. The last 3 months have been dominated by mild weather and we enter December and what happens? We enter a spell of potentially cold zonality, not mild zonailty but cold zonality.

Edited December 3, 2011 by Mr_Data

[Isolated Frost]

It must be the advent calendars pulling in strong Pm air from the north west?

[reef]

Hadley is 6.2C to the 2nd. Less of a drop than expected.

The current pattern produces marked differences from the CET zone and further North.

[Eugene]

A long way to go for this month but it is peculiar how December "seems" to be resisting yet again the warming trend as past Decembers have over recent years. The last 3 months have been dominated by mild weather and we enter December and what happens? We enter a spell of potentially cold zonality, not mild zonailty but cold zonality.

Yes hence my December average/near average CET forecast, i had a feeling things would revert to near normal this december, much more normal than last years exceptional once in a lifetime december thats for sure and i hope that we can get a cold mid to late winter this year, really hoping February will be the coldest month this winter like some amateur forecasters go for.

[Isolated Frost]

I have a feeling my guess will be to the low side as

a) I'd have thought that the Pm air would have made more influence but of course Pm air usually is average-mild in most southern areas with 8-11c maxima and 0-3c minima on standard days... 5.5-6.5c is a more standard cet guess I'd say.

B) more signals towards a flat pattern towards mid-month with heights over europe with a difference in the subtropical ridge and a steeper gradient on the pfj... all set for a cooler last third with cool topplers and hp domination.

[Eugene]

Might have to bin my December CET forecast if GFS 12Z comes off, cold highs will do me my CET guess of 5.1C no favours at all.

[kold weather]

IF the high does manage to pull itself over the UK, should see the first half of December come in below average. For those very high CET's your going to need the jet to really ramp up again and for the Euro High to return...not out of question for now.

Still a decent start to the month considering what many were fearing!

[reef]

Hadley is still 6.2C to the 3rd.

Cold zonal setups often dont give much in the way of low temperatures in the CET zone, so unless that high does sit over the UK the value by mid-month might be higher than expected.

[damianslaw]

Hadley is still 6.2C to the 3rd.

Cold zonal setups often dont give much in the way of low temperatures in the CET zone, so unless that high does sit over the UK the value by mid-month might be higher than expected.

The next couple of days will deliver quite low minima for the CET zone - mins between 0-2 degrees with maxima struggling to reach 7 degrees for many returning means nearer 4 degrees which should bring the CET down a bit,however, milder uppers mid week will probably bring it back close to 6 degrees again.. if we do see heights build over the country it will drop like a stone thanks to very cold nights, and daytime maxima struggling after the cold start and potential fog.

Scotland CET no doubt is appreciably lower than england CET at this stage - and will comfortably be below the long term mean at this stage by the end of next week.

[Richard Lake]

Using the NetWeather CET values for this year and trying different test values for this December; this year is almost guaranteed to be the warmest in the entire CET series or as they like to say on TV 'since records began'. The CET for this December will have to fall below 0.6c IF it is not to take 1st place.

(4.14+6.97+7.2+12.42+12.91+14.76+16.03+16.12+15.71+13.02+9.94+0.6) / 12

Met Office CET Series: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

[summer blizzard]

Using the NetWeather CET values for this year and trying different test values for this December; this year is almost guaranteed to be the warmest in the entire CET series or as they like to say on TV 'since records began'. The CET for this December will have to fall below 0.6c IF it is not to take 1st place.

(4.14+6.97+7.2+12.42+12.91+14.76+16.03+16.12+15.71+13.02+9.94+0.6) / 12

Met Office CET Series: http://www.metoffice...t_mean_sort.txt

You can't really compare the two as the Netweather values are a fair bit higher which means the corresponding values in 2006 were likely higher as well.

There is little chance of the warmest year in my opinion although we may get the second warmest.

[Richard Lake]

@summerblizzard

Yeah, I suspected it would be, but interesting nonetheless. It will still it be a close call I feel though,

Edited December 5, 2011 by djrikki

[Isolated Frost]

@summerblizzard

Yeah, I suspected it would be, but interesting nonetheless. It will still it be a close call I feel though,

It's a stark reminder of the effects of global warming, the 2 warmest years in a 353 year history occur in the space of 6 years... amazing.

[cheeky_monkey]

Using the NetWeather CET values for this year and trying different test values for this December; this year is almost guaranteed to be the warmest in the entire CET series or as they like to say on TV 'since records began'. The CET for this December will have to fall below 0.6c IF it is not to take 1st place.

(4.14+6.97+7.2+12.42+12.91+14.76+16.03+16.12+15.71+13.02+9.94+0.6) / 12

Met Office CET Series: http://www.metoffice...t_mean_sort.txt

not living in the UK anymore..but how many record breaking years have not produced a hot summer?...seems a warm spring and Autumn have done the trick?

[reef]

Hadley has shown a small rise today and is now on 6.3C to the 4th.

For the record, a December of 7.4C is required for the warmest annual CET. Im suprised this current spell has been so mild in the CET zone so far, so 7.4C is still very much within the realms of possibility if a mild zonal pattern takes over. Unlikely mind you.

[chionomaniac]

Hadley has shown a small rise today and is now on 6.3C to the 4th.

For the record, a December of 7.4C is required for the warmest annual CET. Im suprised this current spell has been so mild in the CET zone so far, so 7.4C is still very much within the realms of possibility if a mild zonal pattern takes over. Unlikely mind you.

It is probably more likely for the CET zone than much else, reef. Already, this 'cold snap' is producing above average in the CET zone. And with no major blocking on the horizon the likelihood is that the CET zone will continue above average.

[Optimus Prime]

Well last nights minimum is down as 1.5c and todays maximum will be around 7.0c. 5.9c on todays update to the 5th likely. Period 6th - 10th comes in at 4.7c on the 12z run.

Thus to the 10th the CET will likely average 5.3c (-0.3c on the 71-000 scale) The remaining 21 days would need to average 8.1c for the annual CET to be broken at 10.84.

[Harve]

7.0c maximum across the CET zone today? Wow, the maximum today here, just on the north-east edge of the zone, was 1.0c.

[summer blizzard]

Personally i am already expecting quite a large correction simply due to the first week.

Secondly, does anybody know what we should be averaging to the 5th because i suspect we are not much above that, 5.1C is only the monthly value.

Harve, there is a pronounced N/S split, even Leeds is only averaging about 4C (based on my rough calculations and GFS model runs).

[damianslaw]

Anyone know what the scotland CET is currently running at - suspect a bit below average. Certainly a marked north-south split so far this month.Take today for instance our highest max was 3 degrees and we are likely to go down to -1 degrees returning a 1 degree mean... CET value certainly not reflective of the last 5 days in scotland and far north of england..

In NW blasts the CET zone very rarely delivers significantly below average levels it has to be said - more often very average and sometimes as we have seen above.

[Isolated Frost]

Durham average is 4.4c to the 4th... the 81-10 average is 3.9c, the 71-00 average is 4.3c. Should be another drop to the 5th so it should be around 4.0c/4.1c to the 5th here (0900-0900method).

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes, don't forget that the Januarys of 1978 and 1984 (two of the starkest examples of cold zonal months) still came out with a close to average CET, despite much below average temperatures across Scotland and Ireland. January 1952 was another good example of a cold zonal month, but it only managed a below average CET because of a blocked last third with some northerlies.

Even so, I think 7.4C is a tall order if we keep this sort of westerly type going (average to cold in the north, average to mild in the south). We will need a build of pressure to the south and southeast at some stage if we are to challenge the annual CET record.

[summer blizzard]

http://www.climate-uk.com/page2.html

Keep an eye on this when updated for Scotland.