Model Output Discussion - 14th - 20th November

[cooling climate]

Well from a cold weather fans perspective there is nothing remotely

nice about the models at the moment and probably will not be for

several more weeks, or until we see some sort of warming in the

stratosphere that can weaken the polar westerlies that are sucking

all low pressure systems northward in a positive feedback to the

strong vortex.

As I mentioned yesterday any model such as yesterdays runs showing

midlatitude ridging into the Arctic or over Greenland or an Aleutian

ridge extending into the Arctic is utter nonsence until as I say we see

some warming allowing such pressure rises. The next several weeks

for the cold lovers among us are going to be long and tedious, 2006

I am afraid springs to mind.Patience is the key I think.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Yes i believe Choco doesn't think we will see any cold until well into mid-late January at the earliest due to the stratosphere and pattern indicators. I suppose to get 3/3 cold winters is very difficult.

I anticipate lots of desperation come here by Christmas!

Really? Not many thought we get what we're getting ths coming 7 days let alone Christmas and mid to late Jan. Let the change come in and when it does lets see what models start showing. Its clear that FI is going to be very difficult to call in the coming weeks.

BFTP

Edited November 20, 2011 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Matty M]

Breaking News Breaking News:

The GFS ensembles offer some hope. Few going for Greeny High and more ampl.

[snowlover2009]

What does a finnish high look like?

[Matty M]

Really? Not many thought we get what we're getting ths coming 7 days let alone Christmas and mid to late Jan. Let the change come in and when it does lets see what models start showing. Its clear that FI is going to be very difficult to call in the coming weeks.

BFTP

I was just referring to Chocos thoughts in the other Model thread

[snowlover2009]

Breaking News Breaking News:

The GFS ensembles offer some hope. Few going for Greeny High and more ampl.

Thanks for the teaser, will look at them when they are fully out.

Also, disappointed with the UKMO 144 hour chart. Once again, any rain or storm tracks too for southern parts and keeps high pressure closer. SURPRISE SURPRISE EH?

This is going to be frustrating to watch if it has support tonight by the ensembles and ecm, it really is.

The last year, it has been the same, low pressure swings into gear and stays too far north or west to bring little in the way of rain. That is just from the UKMO run, gfs still has plenty of it, for here anyway. Just hope we aren't going to see a backtrack again for the zillionth time in unsettled terms.

Edited November 20, 2011 by snowlover2009

[weathe20]

12z = Offers a north - south split later in the week. Appart from that S,SW,W,S winds. Looks very much like a normal UK winter pattern, colder incursions in the north with snow at high levels.

[weathe20]

2006 is certainly a close replication of what we see right now, as the latest runs go on we see the deep purples beginning to appear at Northern latitudes and entrenchment of the pattern of zonality.

Spot on. Im no expert but if this pattern sets up would it take a hell of another pattern shift to get real cold to our shores??

[Mark Neal.]

But we then had a snowy period in february 2007, so it ain't all bad..

For now, the last few days have shown more optism, but nothing too special, we have jut got to wait, things will change and hopefully for the better soon!

Edited November 20, 2011 by Mark Neal Ox

[peterf]

But we then had a snowy period in february 2007, so it ain't all bad..

For now, the last few days have shown more optism, but nothing too special, we have jut got to wait, things will change and hopefully for the better soon!

i admire your patience,shame a few others couldn't be so controlled.

[A Winter's Tale]

But we then had a snowy period in february 2007, so it ain't all bad..

For now, the last few days have shown more optism, but nothing too special, we have jut got to wait, things will change and hopefully for the better soon!

The problem with Febuary 2007 cold snaps that snow always missed our region.

Anyway I think that we won't need to compare 2011/2012 to 2006/2007 come Febuary. Looking at the models I think that anything could happen from the 29th November onwards.

[Great Plum]

A crumb of comfort... The 12z ensembles for London at least show the operational to be an outlier in its later stages...

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

[snowlover2009]

Good grief look at that outrageous mild outlier in the middle of the run(light blue)!

The ensemble means stays below 0 from the 25th all the way through.

[Mark Neal.]

The problem with Febuary 2007 cold snaps that snow always missed our region.

Anyway I think that we won't need to compare 2011/2012 to 2006/2007 come Febuary. Looking at the models I think that anything could happen from the 29th November onwards.

I was very lucky to see snow in February 2007, here in Oxford we had significant snowfall but in other places they missed out, i just think in the next few weeks the models will pick up on small hints of winter showing its snowy and cold head, come this time next month we may be in a cold spell or awaiting one, still plenty to play for!

Regards,Mark.

Edited November 20, 2011 by Mark Neal Ox

[cyclonic happiness]

In my experience, 'good' cold spells often follow periods of very stagnant dull weather such as the one we are seeing now.

We just have to wait and see and be glad it's not january.

[ukpaul]

A crumb of comfort... The 12z ensembles for London at least show the operational to be an outlier in its later stages...

http://www.netweathe...;type=ens;sess=

Not just an outlier for London, it's sailing along with 850s higher than any other ensemble member for the last five days or so.

(PTB 8 is fun to look at by the way)

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Nick the 528dam line is constantly flirting with our shores all week.

Whilst not very cold, it's hardly barbeque weather and it's likely to feel a good deal colder than of late.

Some exceptionally cold air South of Iceland ready to pounce!

All in all whilst not ideal, I think we are in a much better place to a week ago

lol I can assure you JS we are not.

[snowlover2009]

lol I can assure you JS we are not.

how is that?

[Mark Neal.]

lol I can assure you JS we are not.

The simple fact we have seen some hints towards snow and cold in FI, shows we have seen a small improvement, nothing substantial but better than we have seen in the last few weeks, so i would take it as a graudual improvement, but we have a long long way to go yet, before we can see snow and cold.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

how is that?

Read Nick Sussex' post that will explain it much better than i can.

Basically we have a very cold stratosphere,a very persistant euro high,and the likelihood of the PV getting organized in the near future.

November is a right off and personally i think the first week of Dec is looking a right off for cold.

as ian brown said an entrenchment of zonality at northern latitudes looks odds on.

[snowlover2009]

The simple fact we have seen some hints towards snow and cold in FI, shows we have seen a small improvement, nothing substantial but better than we have seen in the last few weeks, so i would take it as a graudual improvement, but we have a long long way to go yet, before we can see snow and cold.

There is potential for wintriness across the north next with the 528 DAM line coming in and the uppers around -5. The fact there is a different pattern to something from the north, west or north west, shows that we are in a much favourable condition. If we were to continue with the euro high, then you would hardly be able to say we are in a better position.

[damianslaw]

With the upstream pattern as flat as a pancake and the Euro high maintained then I'm afraid it's not looking good if you're looking for any colder weather.

The more amplified pattern the models showed yesterday is fast disappearing, if you like not having to put your heat on for a while and want to save some money on those energy bills you will think you've gone to heaven, if you're a cold and snow lover then the word nightmare comes to mind!

I can't remember the last time I saw a NH pattern so flat, there is no sign of any amplification anywhere.

Roll on December maybe the change of month might bring a change in the pattern, I'll be happy to see the back of this November, unfortunately the output so far this evening is awful for European ski resorts, unless theres a big change soon then early season skiing is not going to happen.

I really hope the ECM can find some amplification from somewhere, but I'm not hopeful.

Yes certainly a zonal outlook compared to recent weeks even months... however, late Nov is when westerlies reach their yearly maxim - the charts are very very normal for the time of year.

Amplification is very difficult to forecast, shortwaves and secondary low development can appear in very zonal spells and change things markedly often catching many unaware. We need the pattern over NE USA become more amplified first before we have a real chance of seeing some amplifiction of the trough.. there are tentative signs of rising heights over greenland.

One thing we shouldn't discount is a sudden rise of pressure from the SW at any stage. I was looking back at the charts of dec 07 and 06 which saw a very flat zonal pattern in the first half of those months but then this broke in the run up to christmas thanks to rising heights from the south ridging into and over the country. Its by no means certain we are in for a lengthy zonal flat jet pattern. I'm just pleased we have lost the euro high and things will finally feel much more seasonal.

[snowlover2009]

Read Nick Sussex' post that will explain it much better than i can.

Basically we have a very cold stratosphere,a very persistant euro high,and the likelihood of the PV getting organized in the near future.

November is a right off and personally i think the first week of Dec is looking a right off for cold.

as ian brown said an entrenchment of zonality at northern latitudes looks odds on.

I look up to there posts, they know what they are talking about, but they can be wrong and we have all been wrong at some point. A lot of the established pros on here have different opinions with the pattern, so no one can really say. No disrespect to GP, but look at his summer forecast and how different reality was.

TBH, all I want is some interesting weather and more seasonable weather and it looks like we are going to get it. Temperatures are going to feel much colder and some days below average and with the wind picking up, some very chilly days in the wind too. With an organized PV, it can well mean cold zonality with cold westerlies, its no scratch on raw easterlies, but it will do for me after the autumn we have had. That just says how bad it has been IMO for any decent interesting weather.

What you need to remember is small secondary lows can spawn any time and can change the whole entire pattern completely and for the better if you are after cold. Look at the 00z for example. Remember they pop up out of the blue too. Lets just wait and see.

Edited November 20, 2011 by snowlover2009

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

I look up to there posts, they know what they are talking about, but they can be wrong and we have all been wrong at some point. A lot of the established pros on here have different opinions with the pattern, so no one can really say. No disrespect to GP, but look at his summer forecast and how different reality was.

TBH, all I want is some interesting weather and more seasonable weather and it looks like we are going to get it. Temperatures are going to feel much colder and some days below average and with the wind picking up, some very chilly days in the wind too. With an organized PV, it can well mean cold zonality with cold westerlies, its no scratch on raw easterlies, but it will do for me after the autumn we have had. That just says how bad it has been IMO for any decent interesting weather.

What you need to remember is small secondary lows can spawn any time and can change the whole entire pattern completely and for the better if you are after cold. Look at the 00z for example.

If you like cold rain then yes the outlook looks reasonable.

its not the cold rain that concerns me however its the prospect of all that cold air bottled up over the arctic and a super strong PV in tandom with a cold stratosphere,a very bad combination and potentially a long lasting one,unless we see a SSW which im constatnly on the lookout for.

[phil nw.]

Unfortunately in the pattern we have ie,strong Polar Vortex and persistent High pressure to our South there is no way deep cold can get here from Polar regions.

The brief flirtations of sub-zero uppers for the far north will bring some wintryness over mountains up there but for many up north it will just be colder rain.

Down south it will continue mainly mild and often dry with the High pressure close by.

We have seen this flat zonal set up so many times before and has others have said untill we get some buckling of the flow upstream there`s ittle change likely.