Cold Spell Discussion

[Cheese Rice]

If the latest GFS is correct the snow chances increase the further south you go. I expect it to change but the beginning of next week looks better for snow over N.England than it does in Scotland due to milder 850s.

[A Winter's Tale]

If the latest GFS is correct the snow chances increase the further south you go. I expect it to change but the beginning of next week looks better for snow over N.England than it does in Scotland due to milder 850s.

For much of Monday, yes. Sunday still favours Scotland and beyond Tuesday there could yet be a few more Polar maritime incursions.

[P-M]

NE England Update:

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Staying cold and windy over the next few days with sunny spells and blustery showers. The showers will be wintry with snow at times. Overnight frosts likely.

Updated: 1525 on Thu 1 Dec 2011

[reef]

Im suprised theres even a thread for this to be honest. On the latest charts the 850hPa -5C isotherm only barely makes it to England and is gone within 12 hours.

At best there will be a few wintry showers about with maybe a few temporary accumulations on higher ground. Most areas will even struggle to get an air frost.

Still, it shows how poor Autumn has been for cold weather.

[Aaron]

I was surprised too. Air frost though? That is looking likely even tonight here given the clouds clear and wind dies.

[sn0wman]

12Z looking like a big upgrade with the cold spell lasting much longer and an interesting feature appearing next Thursday.

[GulberwickWeather]

A dusting of lying snow up here

[Cheese Rice]

Loads of snow potential on the 12Z... love it!

[picog]

Can anyone post a snowy chart please?

[johnholmes]

just for a laugh but PLEASE do not take it seriously-its not NW Extra's fault, blame it on GFS-been on the Santa mix I think!

[Andy_]

Well i'm hoping for the chance of a dusting on Tuesday Morning, with the chance of a rogue shower getting here and laying something in the early hours whilst it's still cold enough

[Snowstorm1]

NE England Update:

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Staying cold and windy over the next few days with sunny spells and blustery showers. The showers will be wintry with snow at times. Overnight frosts likely.

Updated: 1525 on Thu 1 Dec 2011

I must admit I loved this update and caught me slightly only slightly surprised! Lets hope for a little covering if them beauty showers can make it over!

[BlueHedgehog074]

Can anyone post a snowy chart please?

Although a way out, the GFS 12Z throws out these rather wintry looking charts for next Thursday.

A cut-off Low moves in from the Atlantic, but quickly brings in much colder upper temperatures as it travels Noth-Eastwards...

This could quickly replace any rain with snow, and we end up with this!

Edited December 1, 2011 by Rainbow Snow

[Backtrack]

The latest Met Office medium term update is fantastic.

'Temperatures largely below average away from the South'

[spindrift1980]

Im suprised theres even a thread for this to be honest. On the latest charts the 850hPa -5C isotherm only barely makes it to England and is gone within 12 hours.

At best there will be a few wintry showers about with maybe a few temporary accumulations on higher ground. Most areas will even struggle to get an air frost.

Still, it shows how poor Autumn has been for cold weather.

Oh come on...if there was anything like this on the cards for southern England there would be a thread 20 pages long by now!

You seem to be implying that a particular weather event has to affect England before it is worthy of a thread of its own right - why focus on the fact that the '5C isotherm 'only barely makes it to England' when much of Scotland has an outlook which fully merits the title 'cold spell discussion'?

Edited December 1, 2011 by spindrift1980

[Snowstorm1]

Oh come on...if there was anything like this on the cards for southern England there would be a thread 20 pages long by now!

You seem to be implying that a particular weather event has to affect England before it is worthy of a thread of its own right - why focus on the fact that the '5C isotherm 'only barely makes it to England' when much of Scotland has an outlook which fully merits the title 'cold spell discussion'?

I agree and it makes it to Northern England for a while too aswell as Northern Ireland ?

[summer blizzard]

I fully agree.

In relation to cold i shall be on the lookout for frost tonight with fairly widespread forecast for Scotland and Ireland. In addition to this, the maxima in Leeds today was about 3C lower than forecast which if minima is the same would equate to -1C.

Currently..

Aviemore and Loch Glascarnoch lead the way at just 1C.

[Aaron]

The maxima today was about the same as the forecast low.. skies suppose to clear soon, dead calm here.. so a frost would seem a certainty.

Of course, all that precipitation near by will have to bugger off first

Edited December 1, 2011 by Aaron

[reef]

Oh come on...if there was anything like this on the cards for southern England there would be a thread 20 pages long by now!

You seem to be implying that a particular weather event has to affect England before it is worthy of a thread of its own right - why focus on the fact that the '5C isotherm 'only barely makes it to England' when much of Scotland has an outlook which fully merits the title 'cold spell discussion'?

You know full well thats not what my post meant. At the time on the 06z the 'cold spell' was weak nationwide. The -5C isotherm only touching the borders and nearly all of the UK never had anything less than -6C. That in my mind is more of a cool spell in early December and would be unlikely to give more than a few wintry showers and temporary accumulations on higher ground. In my view that did little to warrant a cold spell discussion and the number of posts in this thread (even from people north of the border) was reflected by this.

The 12z now shows something a lot more favourable for many areas, so perhaps its a little more justified.

[Snowmadsam]

hoping for some flakes between now and christmas day...fingers crossed...... although very unlikely where I live....

Edited December 1, 2011 by Snowmadsam

[Backtrack]

I fully agree.

In relation to cold i shall be on the lookout for frost tonight with fairly widespread forecast for Scotland and Ireland. In addition to this, the maxima in Leeds today was about 3C lower than forecast which if minima is the same would equate to -1C.

Currently..

Aviemore and Loch Glascarnoch lead the way at just 1C.

There's a lot more cloud around than forecast though.

It's gonna have to get a move on for many places to record an air frost.

Having said that, it's only high cloud, which I imagine doesn't emit much radiation? It's only cirrus, but it's holding the temperature up at 6.5C.

Hoping for a clearance by 10pm.

[summer blizzard]

The maxima today was about the same as the forecast low.. skies suppose to clear soon, dead calm here.. so a frost would seem a certainty.

Agreed, looks fairly good.

Current temperature is 5C although i am wary of the dewpoint at 2C.

[Isolated Frost]

You know full well thats not what my post meant. At the time on the 06z the 'cold spell' was weak nationwide. The -5C isotherm only touching the borders and nearly all of the UK never had anything less than -6C. That in my mind is more of a cool spell in early December and would be unlikely to give more than a few wintry showers and temporary accumulations on higher ground. In my view that did little to warrant a cold spell discussion and the number of posts in this thread (even from people north of the border) was reflected by this.

The 12z now shows something a lot more favourable for many areas, so perhaps its a little more justified.

I agree- it's not really potent as you expect really from a Pm flow in early December. Wintry showers with snow north of the border at times.

Max of 7c was rather low, but actually average for early December. Now 2.9c and partly cloudy.

[summer blizzard]

Aboyne in Scotland is at 0C as of 17:00.

Mullingar in Ireland is at 1C.

Most of England holding up at 3C or more.

Bingley near me is now at 4C.

[Isolated Frost]

Aboyne in Scotland is at 0C as of 17:00.

Mullingar in Ireland is at 1C.

Most of England holding up at 3C or more.

Bingley near me is now at 4C.

Ground frost forming in patches, 2.4c here.