Northern England - Cold Spell Discussion

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

looks like the wind is indeed changing direction at last should give those of us in greater manchester a chance through the night a very frustrating day of radar watching!!

looks like the wind is indeed changing direction at last should give those of us in greater manchester a chance through the night a very frustrating day of radar watching!!

[feb1991blizzard]

guys near Oldham etc, that stream that is currently coming in just south of Liverpool should shift north in the next few hours as the winds shift vector a little, I think thats what the models have been clocking.

Yes i think we will get some hefty showers, i think our problem will be we will need continous heavy snow for it to stick which i doubt we will get, continous light snow will just get absorbed by puddles, showers even if they are heavy may not last long enough though im not worried about depths shown on PPN models, i just think that is a very hard thing to model and im sure more places will have a covering that the 18z NAE has got.

[Backtrack]

A very thin one though so not much margin for error.

Looks like I've hit the limit for error. It's moving North. FGS.

Edited December 4, 2011 by Backtrack

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Yes i think we will get some hefty showers, i think our problem will be we will need continous heavy snow for it to stick which i doubt we will get, continous light snow will just get absorbed by puddles, showers even if they are heavy may not last long enough though im not worried about depths shown on PPN models, i just think that is a very hard thing to model and im sure more places will have a covering that the 18z NAE has got.

absolutely its really really wet out there the bbc forecast has temps of 1 degree overnight which is not going to cut the mustard im afraid.

the winds have changed to the direction we need but i guess it s just to early in the season.

see what the morning brings if i have a covering i'll be gobsmacked.

[weatherobsuk]

The cells start off small in banding, but due to convective inhibition and moisture content you can see the further inland they go the bigger they get each time, so even if a cell is looking small out to sea..give it a half hour to see its proximity spread aswell as start influencing lapse rates around it.

[swainclubber]

absolutely its really really wet out there the bbc forecast has temps of 1 degree overnight which is not going to cut the mustard im afraid.

the winds have changed to the direction we need but i guess it s just to early in the season.

see what the morning brings if i have a covering i'll be gobsmacked.

it went from wet to white here in five min so its easy done mate

[AderynCoch]

The hail has returned after a lull. I can't remember the last time I saw such persistent hail - I've been bombarded tonight.

[allenar]

Wonder If Rotherham Will catch a shower... here's hoping!

[kold weather]

Looks like I've hit the limit for error. It's moving North. FGS.

Pretty much right on cue with what the models were suggesting, accumulation will start to show up soon on higher ground to the east/north-east of Manchester...maybe another 2-3hrs to wait till we are at that stage. If i was there and above 150M, I'd be feeling quite content right now with how things are going.

[snow raven]

I'm genuinely loving these snow reports - obviously I wish I was oooop North experiencing the excitement (and hopefully not too much disappointment) but it does bring back memories of last Winter and the excitement snow brings!

[Backtrack]

Pretty much right on cue with what the models were suggesting, accumulation will start to show up soon on higher ground to the east/north-east of Manchester...maybe another 2-3hrs to wait till we are at that stage. If i was there and above 150M, I'd be feeling quite content right now with how things are going.

Well I'm at 50m, and I've been getting bombarded by hail and wet snow, so I would say that 150m is a very good bet.

Showers here will probably be very spaced out now until tomorrow. Temperature has risen to 3.5C. Need that to fall back down again as a good base to start tomorrow on.

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Any reports of lightning/ thunder recently liverpool way. Some very big flashes over here.

[feb1991blizzard]

Pretty much right on cue with what the models were suggesting, accumulation will start to show up soon on higher ground to the east/north-east of Manchester...maybe another 2-3hrs to wait till we are at that stage. If i was there and above 150M, I'd be feeling quite content right now with how things are going.

My take is that i am quietly confident that over the next 18 hours i will see a full covering of about an inch on grass, pavements but maybe not roads, possibly more but 2 inches probably pushing it but anwhere in greater manchester / west yorksire or the peak district at decent altitude, you would have to be unlucky not to see anything at all, places like Liverpool and Runcorn, Preston and Blackpool i would think too marginal, certainly for accumulations although im not sure what the highest altitude in those places is.

[Backtrack]

My take is that i am quietly confident that over the next 18 hours i will see a full covering of about an inch on grass, pavements but maybe not roads, possibly more but 2 inches probably pushing it but anwhere in greater manchester / west yorksire or the peak district at decent altitude, you would have to be unlucky not to see anything at all, places like Liverpool and Runcorn, Preston and Blackpool i would think too marginal, certainly for accumulations although im not sure what the highest altitude in those places is.

Bout 120m.

[NickyB]

Any reports of lightning/ thunder recently liverpool way. Some very big flashes over here.

Thunder here about 15 minutes ago

[yorkieblade]

My friend has just FB me ..starting to snow in Stocksbridge - Nrth Sheffield - and settling !!

[NW_Blackburn]

My take is that i am quietly confident that over the next 18 hours i will see a full covering of about an inch on grass, pavements but maybe not roads, possibly more but 2 inches probably pushing it but anwhere in greater manchester / west yorksire or the peak district at decent altitude, you would have to be unlucky not to see anything at all, places like Liverpool and Runcorn, Preston and Blackpool i would think too marginal, certainly for accumulations although im not sure what the highest altitude in those places is.

What would your prediction be for Blackburn area East Lancs for any further snow or accumalations? I have already had a little bit of snow tonight and there is a covering on the cars but nothing on pavements/roads etc.

Thanks

Edited December 4, 2011 by NW_Blackburn

[damianslaw]

Next lot of showers for the Leeds area!

Do like the chart above - shows us as being directly within the arrow and thus firing line - however, we have had no precipitation for over 2 hours, so not sure what is going on.. hoping to wake up to at least a dusting if not a cm or two.. will await the morning with anticipation, nothing better than the first white cover of the season however little, last year we only needed to wait until the 27th Nov, but the year before it was the 19th Dec, year before and I think it was the 1st or 2nd Dec - in winter 07/08 we had to wait until March from memory absolutely terrible and 06/07 we had to wait until february - poor winters..

[Backtrack]

Heavy hail shower. Temperature SMASHED right down to 2.9C

[Liam J]

The wind vectors seem to be veering more westerly pushing the showers east rather than south east, I was watching the ppn moving out of D&G and it's now heading to the north of me pushing eastwards.

Edited December 4, 2011 by Liam J

[Backtrack]

That could be my last shower of the spell!

Irish Sea is going through a lull again. Pep up you beauty :lol:

[yorkieblade]

Snowing and settling in Fulwood, West Sheffield ...icy roads as well -1 on car temp gauge and glistening roads..be careful all driving

[Cheese Rice]

Do like the chart above - shows us as being directly within the arrow and thus firing line - however, we have had no precipitation for over 2 hours, so not sure what is going on.. hoping to wake up to at least a dusting if not a cm or two.. will await the morning with anticipation, nothing better than the first white cover of the season however little, last year we only needed to wait until the 27th Nov, but the year before it was the 19th Dec, year before and I think it was the 1st or 2nd Dec - in winter 07/08 we had to wait until March from memory absolutely terrible and 06/07 we had to wait until february - poor winters..

Some don't seem to make it while others track all the way to the north midlands. Already have a dusting on car, roof, grass, just not the ground. I'm pretty sure you will see a few cm's especially with the change of wind direction around 1am. 850 values will still drop to around -6 from the current -4/5 thus increasing the convection and allowing further showers to track inland due to the increase in intensity.

Anyway this beauty here any minute woop!

Edited December 4, 2011 by Cheese Rice

[Backtrack]

Down to 2.7C

[allenar]

Can we have a Yorkshire Thread?