Model Output Discussion - 5th December - 11th December

[Harsh Climate]

This is the link for the ECM ensemble maps upto 168hrs:

http://www.ecmwf.int...t!2009112700!!/

Generally though at this timeframe it's better to follow the operational runs because of their higher resolution.

That should update around 8.30pm .

You can clearly see the control run is pretty much on its own regarding thursday/fridays storm.

Only like 8/52 perpetrations don't have a deep low.

[Costa Del Fal]

I agree Kold, given its against pretty much every other model and changed to such extreme differences ion one run doesnt fill me confidence with the ECM evolution. Cant rule it out though, but its key the Ensembles are viewed later this evening. On the whole though, its still very likely Friday will have a very significant storm unless other models then follow the ECM.

[Sleet30031972]

Well the ECM comes as a relief and even at 120hrs low pressure still looks weaker.

On a different note the UKMO at 144hrs looks rather interesting in terms of where the pattern might go, I wouldn't be too surprised to see some more potential shown on the ECM.

Anyway lets hope we continue to get downgrades with this low.

[Optimus Prime]

It's on all of the models, it still is on all apart from one (post noted for potential future hubristic response anyway).

ECM is the most accurate and consistent out of them all and it often sets trends before the other models. Still looking breezy and mild on Friday though.

The January 2004 storm hype would go down in history. It got forecasted horribly even upto 2 hours away. Was expected to be a big storm and ended up not even being breezy.

On the whole though, its still very likely Friday will have a very significant storm unless other models then follow the ECM.

Science considers very likely to be greater than 90%. 90% sure Friday will be hit by a very significant storm? I'm glad you're not doing to the bookies this Christmas pal lolz.

[Uncle_Barty]

I'd be very suspicious of that ECM operational for now.. as things stand it is completely on its own relative to all the model output and its own previous runs over the past two days WRT Thurs/Fri.

Lets see if the other models (and its own later runs) fall into line with the ECM by this time tomorrow.....

Definitely a case of 'more runs needed'.......

Edited December 11, 2011 by Jim_AFCB

[phil nw.]

You can clearly see the control run is pretty much on its own regarding thursday/fridays storm.

Only like 8/52 perpetrations don't have a deep low.

They are still the 00z ens.

[nick sussex]

Differences of opinion between the ECM and GFS, the movement of the PV looks likely to cause some model variability.

The Russian high looks like it could hold troughing into Europe, I'd expect to see some more interesting options shown at 168hrs on the ECM ensembles.

[Aaron]

You would need to downgrade this storm to a central pressure of 990 to prevent any widespread damage considering it's located over Scotland, delivering the strongest winds to all of northern England and parts of the Midlands. :lol:

Edited December 11, 2011 by Aaron

[jonnybradley]

You can clearly see the control run is pretty much on its own regarding thursday/fridays storm.

Only like 8/52 perpetrations don't have a deep low.

Unless you got a diffrent link dude (please can I have it) there still at 00z. It's the 12z operational that lost the Fri low? They should publish the ensemble in a while.

But still fair point 8/52 on the 00z to the 12z operational with a massive downgrade

[kold weather]

ECM is the most accurate and consistent out of them all and it often sets trends before the other models.

Consistent??

This is the model that went from having a 944mbs low on its 00z run to a 984mbs over the UK on its 12z run...pretty much a 40mbs difference inbetween runs!!

until then it has been consistent...for a powerful low. I have to see more evidence from other models and the ECM ensembles before I even think about given this run any weight at all. I'm not saying your wrong with what your saying OP, but to base that on a single ECM operational run is a BIG leap of faith, especially given just a few days ago we had a powerful 960mbs low over Scotland!!

[Optimus Prime]

You would need to downgrade this storm to a central pressure of 990 to prevent any widespread damage considering it's located over Scotland, delivering the strongest winds to all of northern England and parts of the Midlands. :lol:

I wouldn't be surprised if by Friday that 'Storm' is downgraded to High pressure at this rate.

Consistent??

This is the model that went from having a 944mbs low on its 00z run to a 984mbs over the UK on its 12z run...pretty much a 40mbs difference inbetween runs!!

until then it has been consistent...for a powerful low. I have to see more evidence from other models and the ECM ensembles before I even think about given this run any weight at all.

At a time frame of 144 hours that's totally respectable and as I have said, a trend setter.

[VillagePlank]

I think OP might be onto a little bit of wind-up here.

Still plenty more runs, and we won't know for sure until the fundamental starts playing out: ie a small but compact ridge just to the East of the Caribbean has yet to form! I urge you to look, here, where the factors are, I think, pretty much well defined.

I think that the ECM is an outlier. If not some seriously stern questions are going to be asked about model output.

Edited December 11, 2011 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[ukpaul]

ECM is the most accurate and consistent out of them all and it often sets trends before the other models. Still looking breezy and mild on Friday though.

The January 2004 storm hype would go down in history. It got forecasted horribly even upto 2 hours away. Was expected to be a big storm and ended up not even being breezy.

People use the models to plan ahead, you don't sound as though you have the responsibility of ensuring the safety of others but a number of people can't just hope for the best. The attitude of believing the option of least worst outcome for anything is what puts people in dangerous positions.

[kold weather]

At a time frame of 144 hours that's totally respectable and as I have said, a trend setter.

You know this how exactly? You maybe right but there is NO WAY you can make that sort of statement!

Also its not at 144hrs OP, the differences on the ECM start as early as 72hrs...if the differences were out at 144hrs I'd be happy to agree with you but its clearly alot closer then that.

Still the ECM does show something totally different and we have seen large changes, but I think what gives me more faith is we've already had one powerful storm roll through, I see no synoptic reasoning why we shouldn't have another other than the unlikely splitting of the shortwave that the ECM suggests.

[Liam J]

You seem very certain the ECM is correct Optimus after just one run? Whilst you may be right, equally the wheels could fall off the bandwagon quicker than you think on the next run.

Edited December 11, 2011 by Liam J

[bluearmy]

ECM ens postage stamps due around 9-30. Ens run at 8-30 when we will see the mean and spreads. My gut feeling is that this run is rogue wrt the depression.

it is interesting to note that the ECM control has made nothing of this feature for the past 4 runs.

[Matty M]

You know this how exactly? You maybe right but there is NO WAY you can make that sort of statement!

Also its not at 144hrs OP, the differences on the ECM start as early as 72hrs...if the differences were out at 144hrs I'd be happy to agree with you but its clearly alot closer then that.

Still the ECM does show something totally different and we have seen large changes, but I think what gives me more faith is we've already had one powerful storm roll through, I see no synoptic reasoning why we shouldn't have another other than the unlikely splitting of the shortwave that the ECM suggests.

Don't entertain him Kold!

He is obviously trying to wind people up considering his last post ' we'll have high pressure over by Friday at this rate '

We must wait for the ENS of ECM, or better still just wait for the 0z

What might about happen is we will move towards a consensus less intense storm.

Although i think this a Loaded trigger type situation, she goes or she doesnt.

[phil nw.]

I'd be very suspicious of that ECM operational for now.. as things stand it is completely on its own relative to all the model output and its own previous runs over the past two days WRT Thurs/Fri.

Lets see if the other models (and its own later runs) fall into line with the ECM by this time tomorrow.....

Definitely a case of 'more runs needed'.......

I would tend to believe the UKMO run at T120--how often does the GFS overplay the intensity of these lows.

ECM shows a less deep feature although overall the pattern is not that different between the 3 models.

Anyway ECM has 970mb,GFS 940mb and UKMO 960mb so the difference is not that great but the trend gradually seems to be less worrying wrt to the intensity.

Tonights T96 and T120 fax will be very revealing --they usually reflect the raw output unless the forecasters pick up on some later data.

[jonnybradley]

I wouldn't be surprised if by Friday that 'Storm' is downgraded to High pressure at this rate.

At a time frame of 144 hours that's totally respectable and as I have said, a trend setter.

As kold weather said its 72-96 when this storm has been on the charts since t192?

For sure I have enjoyed watching how the models have shown this storm, but would be very happy to see it not happen! 1 run is a bit to early to dismiss it me thinks, but I do hope your right

Edited December 11, 2011 by jonnybradley

[Weather-history]

The low tracks through pretty fast on ECM from 96hrs to 120hrs.

[wolvesfan]

I certainly hope ECM are closer to the mark this evening with there downgrade of fridays low,after all who would want that 940mb low to crash through the uk a week before christmas.

[weathe20]

I wonder peoples reaction if the ECM did this with an up and coming severe cold event being shown by the other models for Friday.....pure panic. The reason for pure panic is because the ECM is the form horse. Not my opinion but what Ive read on this forum.

[Summer Sun]

Hope ECM is right tonight that is the sort of downgrade I was hoping for.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

[Optimus Prime]

I certainly hope ECM are closer to the mark this evening with there downgrade of fridays low,after all who would want that 940mb low to crash through the uk a week before christmas.

Quite a lot on here it would seem.

And yes ECM has always been the form horse when it comes to picking up on trends. I just wish it would pick up on Ian Browns hairdryer Christmas soon so it can be nice and warm like it was in April.

[January Snowstorm]

The gfs does indeed tend to overblow these things.

A half way house is the likely winner tonight.

Pity these computer models are so unreliable