Atlantic Storms 13th to 16th December 2011 - Part 4

[johnholmes]

Had seen that and it is very interesting. I'm really hoping we don't get 90mph gusts along the South Coast as the obvious difficulties it could bring would be most unwelcome at any time of the year. I'll take a good gale later please, no damage or loss of life thanks!

Its nearly 24 hours old, and as we have seen several times in the last 96 hours, even 12 hours is a very long time in meteorology. Maybe another one or several before late this evening?

As an old met man I am truly astonished about how the 'real' weather has led every single forecaster, professional or amateur, me included, by the nose for almost a week now.

I am quite sure that the daily technical brief within the ops room at Exeter must have some pretty colourful langauge at times over the past few days. It must surely lead to an in depth look at why it has proved so difficult to get to grips with this particular system.

It is not going to do belief and trust in the models and UK Met's ability to correctly interprete them a great deal of good.

[Liam J]

Good to have you with us Tilly

I've lost count of the number of times the weather has disappointed, that's how it goes I'm afraid! you win some you loose some I guess with our wonderful British weather.

However a small adjustment northwards with this storm could bring the south coast in line for some pretty strong winds.

[PeterDoswell]

i am based in southampton . wondering watching and waiting ..... we are right on the south coast ....... maybe no snow ..... maybe no wind ?

[syncmaster]

Hi i have been a closet enthusiast for many years, but know im out lol,, have been watching this with great interest for a few days and found it

completely absorbing, my knowledge is limited but have learnt so much from some of the more experienced members. my question is now the met

have taken down the severe wind warnings i wonder what has brought them to that decision, what im tryin to say is how can they be 100% sure its not goin

to vere to the north at this stage.. hope this isnt to much of a newbie question....

[Buzzard]

Peter - I reckon more wind less snow for you, probably more snow than wind for me. Although I'm sure Luton (about 8m away) and the airport which is up on a hill (about 200m ASL) will have some problems.

Assuming the snow will track eastwards anyway from where it is forecast to start in the west?

Edited December 15, 2011 by Buzzard

[Eskimo]

Hi i have been a closet enthusiast for many years, but know im out lol,, have been watching this with great interest for a few days and found it

completely absorbing, my knowledge is limited but have learnt so much from some of the more experienced members. my question is now the met

have taken down the severe wind warnings i wonder what has brought them to that decision, what im tryin to say is how can they be 100% sure its not goin

to vere to the north at this stage.. hope this isnt to much of a newbie question....

The system appears to be moving southward which will decrease the chance of dangerous wind speeds. The centre I believe will travel through the channel increasing the risk for snow for southern UK because the cold can undercut the warmer air easier, which is what the Metoffice have put their warnings out for, hope this helps!

[johnholmes]

Hi i have been a closet enthusiast for many years, but know im out lol,, have been watching this with great interest for a few days and found it

completely absorbing, my knowledge is limited but have learnt so much from some of the more experienced members. my question is now the met

have taken down the severe wind warnings i wonder what has brought them to that decision, what im tryin to say is how can they be 100% sure its not goin

to vere to the north at this stage.. hope this isnt to much of a newbie question....

welcome to Net Wx, and the don't know club, I suspect we may see further twists and turns due to the exact track of the low. Its very diffcult to be sure with 50 miles or so, north/south, just where it will track, hence all the ups and dons and changes to warnings and forecasts.

All I can suggest is watch this space, its likely to udpate you almost as quickly as the Met O come out with any change!

If you see a video from their senior man at Exeter it will be worth watching or the Met O forecasters on BBC 1 National.

Rarely can any forecaster be 100% sure-this set up has dropped it, over the past few days, to about 60% at times!

Edited December 15, 2011 by johnholmes

[conor123]

Please track north please track north, it will be painful to watch the precipitation/heavy snow stall 5 miles south of here.

[Uncle_Barty]

Point of order - shouldnt this forum now be "Severe Weather Discussion - Winter"?

[Coast]

If you see a video from their senior man at Exeter it will be worth watching or the Met O forecasters on BBC 1 National.

Rarely can any forecaster be 100% sure-this set up has dropped it, over the past few days, to about 60% at times!

Here is what he was saying yesterday for info:

[Eskimo]

Latest from Simon Keeling

[syncmaster]

welcome to Net Wx, and the don't know club, I suspect we may see further twists and turns due to the exact track of the low. Its very diffcult to be sure with 50 miles or so, north/south, just where it will track, hence all the ups and dons and changes to warnings and forecasts.

All I can suggest is watch this space, its likely to udpate you almost as quickly as the Met O come out with any change!

If you see a video from their senior man at Exeter it will be worth watching or the Met O forecasters on BBC 1 National.

Rarely can any forecaster be 100% sure-this set up has dropped it, over the past few days, to about 60% at times!

Thank you and that was most helpfull i shall watch with great interest how the next 24 hrs pan out, any suggestion as t the best realtime sat to watch or something similiar i am subscribed to netweather radar but i cant see enough !! best regards from just slightly north of sunny scunny,,,

[bpcpal]

Unfortunatly my works computer will not let me see the latest. Could you post what it is saying please

[Eskimo]

Unfortunatly my works computer will not let me see the latest. Could you post what it is saying please

Areas for snow at most risk are western-central-southern England & Wales but the risk extends all across the southern half of the UK albeit the very far south!

[bpcpal]

Areas for snow at most risk are western-central-southern England & Wales but the risk extends all across the southern half of the UK albeit the very far south!

Thank you.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Nowt exciting for central southern. Lots of rain and a little bit of wind. Nothing exciting. However for those further north in the snow range I would be well excited! Lots of pictures please!

[Coast]

any suggestion as t the best realtime sat to watch or something similiar i am subscribed to netweather radar but i cant see enough !! best regards from just slightly north of sunny scunny,,,

Netweather should give you one of the best views of what's coming, there are a couple of others you can watch in conjunction with it:

http://www.meteox.com/h.aspx?r=holiday&jaar=-3&soort=loop24uur&URL

http://weather2day.com/radar/

Specifically for later:

http://www.meteox.com/gmapstatic.aspx?zoom=6&type=zoom&x=207&y=275

[Crimson_Sprite]

ace video Paul!! Thanks for sharing that link! Well if all else fails tonight then there is a new string of hope for a potential easterly over xmas period? That would be amazing I hope the models show this trend more and more. At least its something else to look forward to snow-wise!!!!! (maybe??)

[syncmaster]

Netweather should give you one of the best views of what's coming, there are a couple of others you can watch in conjunction with it:

http://www.meteox.co...t=loop24uur

http://weather2day.com/radar/

Specifically for later:

http://www.meteox.co...oom&x=207&y=275

ok thats briliant thank you for your help

[Eskimo]

ace video Paul!! Thanks for sharing that link! Well if all else fails tonight then there is a new string of hope for a potential easterly over xmas period? That would be amazing I hope the models show this trend more and more. At least its something else to look forward to snow-wise!!!!! (maybe??)

Many local forecasters for Nottingham have said that it would be just rain, not snow, particularly on the radio

[Buzzard]

Areas for snow at most risk are western-central-southern England & Wales but the risk extends all across the southern half of the UK albeit the very far south!

That sounds like when I was growing up in Bournemouth - snow apart from the south coast...boo!!

should see some in Beds, where I am now though.

Edited December 15, 2011 by Buzzard

[alibabba]

well skegness was predicted no snow by met office and this morning we had a 20 minute snow shower! great big fat flakes. My pupils were soooo excited...first snow I have seen this winter

[Crimson_Sprite]

Many local forecasters for Nottingham have said that it would be just rain, not snow, particularly on the radio

oh I figured that much. Us getting snow has got about the same odds as this planet being hit by a gamma ray burst! I meant the potential easterly that could develop over the xmas period, which might give off streamers and maybe just maybe, I might get a few flakes out of that. But snow for Nottingham off this system??? I doubt it highly. WAAAAY too marginal temp-wise and its too far south and west now. Im still HOPING though hahaha

[gottolovethisweather]

Possibly an interesting development for those in the Central Southern England region at least.

Temperature maxed out at 6.4c at 12:10 and note the trend, merely an hour later.

Watch, wait and see is definitely the watch words for this system for sure.

Wintry Regards

gottolovethisweather

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Good bye snow warnings..

Oh..And the wind warning is back...Little further North too..