Atlantic Storms 13th to 16th December 2011 - Part 4

[johnholmes]

Looking at the 06Z output from GFS and NAE there is not much difference in their positions, at 00z, one slightly further east and one a few millibars lower but at about the same latitude for 06Z, ppn values also similar in amount and area covered.

The Net Wx NMM model has the ppn fairly similar and also its centre.

All 3 in the vicinity of the Cherbourg peninsula and the Dorset coast.

Remember what I said about ppn and snow, so look carefully at where the ppn is predicted to be and then check the will it snow Guide plus the height and proximity to the sea factor.

Certainly some parts are going to be lucky-best even now to wait for the 12z before trying the Guide

Edited December 15, 2011 by johnholmes

[dallas]

As far as I'm aware this does happen on occasion and you get what is called cut-off lows but I'm sure we are not in that situation so I wouldn't worry about it. Of course I'm open to correction as always.

Cheers weathership, not worried just wondered, watching this system all week has caught my interest.. ta

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Well Surrey as someone says is a good spot for snow in recent years LOL this year I bet will be different ..I am only 14 meters above sea level..Where as 2 miles down the road and up a hill its 54 0.o I hope we all have a lovely covering of snow in the morning...Just a little not too much that London shuts down..Oh wait..1cm does that 0.o

Edited December 15, 2011 by Surrey

[Coast]

You know, this is stoking up to be very much a 'middle of the Channel' thing for the gusty/windy bit of the next 24 hours:

We're only looking at 40 miles either way for something to whack into the South Coast or just miss:

[NO LONGER POSTING]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/16165125

Anyone seen this?? Sorry if it's been posted...So this low can shift within hours?? :S:S:S

[Coast]

http://www.bbc.co.uk...atures/16165125

Anyone seen this?? Sorry if it's been posted...So this low can shift within hours?? :S:S:S

Had seen that and it is very interesting. I'm really hoping we don't get 90mph gusts along the South Coast as the obvious difficulties it could bring would be most unwelcome at any time of the year. I'll take a good gale later please, no damage or loss of life thanks!

[Harry]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/16165125 Anyone seen this?? Sorry if it's been posted...So this low can shift within hours?? :S:S:S

It can - although with such firm model agreement it's less and less likely now (still not a certainty though)

But that video was posted yesterday at 2pm ish. We're the best part of 24 hours further on now.

[Liam J]

Some UKMO Global model charts, quite a deep low progged bringing strong winds with potentially severe gusts heading into Northern France on the southern side of the depression.

SLP and ppn type showing snowfall on the back of the low with possible accumulations being indicated around the midlands area on the chart below this also extends into NE Wales and the Manchester area, temperatures also looking pretty low so ice will be a real problem I imagine, especially following any rain or snowfall.

Edited December 15, 2011 by Liam J

[tinybill]

It can - although with such firm model agreement it's less and less likely now (still not a certainty though)

But that video was posted yesterday at 2pm ish. We're the best part of 24 hours further on now.

they still sure are they lets opion 2 dont come off it could be 1987 revisted iif it does !!

[viking_smb]

going to be fun if we have snow as got to do some work down the yacht club sat

[Crimson_Sprite]

oh dear, Met O has down now that I will only get rain. Yesterday I was due in for heavy snow! I can wait for this beast to come into radar view so i can nowcast it. Its so nailbiting this. I have never had such a wave of emotions all at once in spirals lol!!!

Edit: WOOPS! wrong thread! Sorry!

Edited December 15, 2011 by Crimson_Sprite

[Radiating Dendrite]

they still sure are they lets opion 2 dont come off it could be 1987 revisted iif it does !!

1987 round two is not going to happen.

I cannot believe the extent to which some people are hyping this up. The Meto have removed the majority of their warnings now, why are some people so blinkered to think that it will be more than a pretty standard rain and wind event with a bit of snow possible.

[Purplepixii]

http://www.bbc.co.uk...atures/16165125

Anyone seen this?? Sorry if it's been posted...So this low can shift within hours?? :S:S:S

I hadn't seen this but thanks - I guess they will be doing an update seeing as this was from yesterday? (P.S. If that's what weather forecasters look like these days I might make a concerted effort to watch them! :winky: )

[Radiating Dendrite]

going to be fun if we have snow as got to do some work down the yacht club sat

If you do have snow it will have melted by Saturday.

Unless you intend to keep it in your freezer?

[Tilly]

Meto have taken their Wind warnings down for South now *sigh* there I was hoping for some action!

[Liam J]

Hi Tilly, welcome to the severe weather forum

Yes I'm afraid if you were hoping for some wind action the risk has greatly decreased, the emphasis for the very strong winds is now focussed over the southern channel and France.

[Jayces]

Meto have taken their Wind warnings down for South now *sigh* there I was hoping for some action!

Was about to post the same thing.

I was confident the Meto had a good idea about this storm a few days ago but once again mother nature has shown that we really are still no further forward with our forecasting abilities.

A few days ago the whole country was under a yellow warning of wind and now none of the country has it and the very far south has rain.

Add the extra difficulties of forecasting snow and you can see why warnings for that can pop up only hours before the event!

Well, we do need rain down hee so that's good, not sure we will get snow this week but still a long way to go until Spring.

[Coast]

Snow still on for tomorrow for some:

http://www.metoffice...t_warnings.html

It's radar and satellite time from this afternoon onwards!

I think we need to consider how much rain we might get out of this lot to start off:

Issued at - 15 Dec 2011, 11:26

Valid from - 15 Dec 2011, 20:00

Valid to - 16 Dec 2011, 09:00

An area of heavy rain is expected to move quickly eastwards across southern counties of England during Thursday evening and during the first part of Friday. The rain will be accompanied by fresh to strong winds with a low risk of gales or severe gales near coasts in the far southeast early on Friday.

The public is advised to be aware of the risk of localised flooding due to rain falling onto already saturated ground.

The public is advised to take extra care, further information and advice can be found here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/links.html

[Dean E]

Meto are updating their warnings, hang on people!

Edited December 15, 2011 by SnowMania

[knocker]

Latest for Friday midnight and 1200.

[Dean E]

Amber warning for snow for the Midlands issued.

[Liam J]

Amber warning for Snow, Midlands and parts of Wales.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

[Fitzwis]

Hi Tilly, welcome to the severe weather forum

Yes I'm afraid if you were hoping for some wind action the risk has greatly decreased, the emphasis for the very strong winds is now focussed over the southern channel and France.

Local forecasters have just issued warnings here for gusts of up to 70mph after midnight.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Hi Tilly! (must remember this is not match.com)

Anyway, back to being a grump about the models. This is certainly a proper channel low! It is just such a shame that we had no cold air beforehand, could have been quite a big snow event.

[Tilly]

Hi Tilly, welcome to the severe weather forum

Yes I'm afraid if you were hoping for some wind action the risk has greatly decreased, the emphasis for the very strong winds is now focussed over the southern channel and France.

Hi *waves*

I've been stalking this thread for a few days, thought it was about time I posted haha! Its probably a good thing its going to miss us with Christmas being so close, I'm still slightly disappointed though.