Atlantic Storms 13th to 16th December 2011 - Part 4

[ZONE 51]

http://www.weatherch...rg/ukmomslp.htm - FAX charts Edited December 15, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Alpine glow]

There goes the alarms again (yes, 2 of them)! When this rain/wind comes it is scary.. much scarier than Monday night.. but goes as quick as is comes.. it's going again already. Jeeeez I love freak weather!

[Liam J]

Whilst you are having freak hail storms, It's all nice and quiet here with clear skies and a light ground frost.

It's good to have a wee break from the severe gales etc that seem to have been relentless over the last week! Even though I do love extreme weather

[Alpine glow]

Whilst you are having freak hail storms, It's all nice and quiet here with clear skies and a light ground frost.

It's good to have a wee break from the severe gales etc that seem to have been relentless over the last week! Even though I do love extreme weather

I'm going to let the current thunder lull me to sleep

[Gorath]

http://www.yr.no/sat..._animasjon.html

This satellite imagery shows the low for tomorrow night much further north..

It's not in view yet!

[Alpine glow]

It's not in view yet!

Well yes, that's what I thought.. however, I got this from the Model thread ~ they are discussing it now.

[Trugoy]

Well yes, that's what I thought.. however, I got this from the Model thread ~ they are discussing it now.

Not getting any of this hail you've had tonight and i'm only a half hour drive west! Guess you'er getting all the stuff thats passed my area over the sea since brighton is a little more south!

[Dean E]

Not getting any of this hail you've had tonight and i'm only a half hour drive west! Guess you'er getting all the stuff thats passed my area over the sea since brighton is a little more south!

Same! All we've had here on the coast is some light rain showers and some gusty winds which only lasted for about 5 minutes.

Temperature has just shot up by 1.5c in the past 10 minutes though... Something is inbound!

EDIT: Ahh yes, some showers are moving across the IOW as we speak!

Edited December 15, 2011 by SnowMania

[Cheshire Freeze]

It's not in view yet!

The low hasn't formed off the parent depression yet, but the primry depression looks much further north than GFS and ECM modelling to me. Only an opinion, what do I know, I'm probably wide of the mark.

[Dean E]

This Low has been nothing but trouble for a good week now!

It has been developing through the day, but from what I can clearly see, its developed bang on the 12z GFS predicition.

What we see in the coming 12+ hours, is anyones guess, Hense why I'm not going to stick my neck out on this one!

[Gorath]

The low hasn't formed off the parent depression yet, but the primry depression looks much further north than GFS and ECM modelling to me. Only an opinion, what do I know, I'm probably wide of the mark.

I don't see it. The low is forming way out to the west, there's no visible indication of anything yet on the yr.no link.

[Dean E]

Hail falling here

[Cheshire Freeze]

I don't see it. The low is forming way out to the west, there's no visible indication of anything yet on the yr.no link.

OK here.........

Maps are not my own....no copyright infringement intended

[Gorath]

Sigh. Some linguistic issues are afoot, I fear.

When I said "I don't see it", I guess I should have said "I don't concurr". That is to say, I don't agree that it is showing any worthwhile deviation... YET!

It is still far too early to tell. Wait until the low has actually formed, then we'll have something to look at.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Sigh. Some linguistic issues are afoot, I fear.

When I said "I don't see it", I guess I should have said "I don't concurr". That is to say, I don't agree that it is showing any worthwhile deviation... YET!

It is still far too early to tell. Wait until the low has actually formed, then we'll have something to look at.

Forget it. Like I said, I'm probably wide of the mark.

[Gorath]

Worth keeping an eagle eye on, for sure.

Maybe worth bearing in mind also, is that the maps / views are rotated with relation to each other, which amplifies any immediately perceivable differences.

[Arnie Pie]

light rain with no wind has arrived in Birmingham....no snow or sleet as yet

Edited December 15, 2011 by Arnie Pie

[Somerset Squall]

Just got woken up by hail slamming against the window, wind gust max so far 49.8mph. Thank goodness the Euro high has gone to allow this interesting weather!

[ZONE 51]

The track can change over the last stages, nothing is set in stone yet,

This chart ive made shows the the modelled track prediction by UKMO/GFS/NAE

from earlier data 18z gfs/nae 12z ukmo,

The storm can have a sting in its tail(as they call it) the Jet stream i call the storm rider, i await for last hours interactions, more North and severe storm winds for the Whole South and snow further North, more Southerly track and its snow big time for the South, it wont take much for this storm to hit bigtime across the south, infact the track looks to bring alot of snow to some areas anyway!

Waiting for the mornings outputs!

00z NAE im expecting a slightly Northeast curve, into south EastAnglia

notice the last area of predicted tracks moves up slightly from a straight track, if the storm changes speed then its possible for a NE curve before tracking off to the East.

Edited December 15, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[weatherobsuk]

People are now starting to realistically expect storm-force winds across the South even if the MetO track deviates by 50 miles or so, all I can say is this simply isn't the case and is now confined to France or Mid-Channel (as far North as windfield goes) given the strongest winds in RACY systems always occur on their southwestern flanks.

For this to be modeled as a major storm hitting anywhere in the UK again (including the south) the track of the LP Center, where the Model lines are drawn, HAVE to cross between Liverpool & Hull at the minimum. Given we are now 12hr from Barocyclonic Development with the leaf I have to say imho any nowcasts being charted on the track are more or less in line, and if you want the winds then the Channel Islands or Brest would be your best locality.

[weatherobsuk]

A quick map of max wind gusts in France, showing Northern/Central parts expected to get up to (possibly over) 70mph gusts for a time with the windfield. This was taken from xcweather data and worryingly enough looking at weather forecasts for Paris on the net you wouldn't have thought anything like this was on the way.

I can only hope their version of the Met Office is giving the bulletins via TV/Radio because these winds look scarily similar to the windstorm Klaus.

[knocker]

Very squally around here at the moment with the wee low around Pemrokeshire at midnight. The main low is now showing up on the Atlantic charts.

[Roger J Smith]

Can't see anything odd from 06z ship reports or satellite, think the storm is heading for the Channel and across Belgium into Germany. Winds across France will certainly be strong but not storm force, the gradient just isn't that intense, where there could be wind damage is in central Germany during a more intense phase of the storm there.

Winds across southern England (at the surface) often seem to "underperform" with this sort of track, but eventually some gusts from WNW-NNW to 45-50 knots are likely, however, during the approach the strong winds may be kept over the Channel and then lifted over an inversion layer, failing to mix down to the surface in southeast England. Nasty wind shear aloft for anyone flying tomorrow.

Continuing to watch this just in case, but as I say, winds and pressures from ship reports are very sedate 20-40W. Given the warmth of the air mass over the Azores, would really say that the UK and Ireland have been spared a possible major storm by these dynamics, this was really loaded with potential energy if the jet stream had curved more cyclonic than anti-cyclonic (as seems to be the outcome).

[knocker]

Thanks for that Roger. I take your point about the jet stream if I'm reading this correctly by having a quick look at the GFS 1600 although it has the low slightly further south.

Edited December 15, 2011 by weather ship

[lorenzo]

This mornings sat pic filtered RGB for air mass. There are many other overlays you can use here.

Going to be a fascinating watch as to where is stalls and deepens.