Atlantic Storms 13th to 16th December 2011 - Part 4

[knightrider]

If you don't get gales you were never going to get gales. The models / meto are only trying to predict what is going to happen. Believe it or not, the models predictions five days ago had no influence on what Friday will bring!

Perhaps you had better let off steam in the appropriate thread.

What I meant is the predictions 5 days ago arn't going to happen by the looks of it which is abit of a shame, but hey at least if we get some snow that'll be a nice way to compensate!

[Mapantz]

I just wanted to add, i think the MO have done a sterling job over the last 10 days or so. It seems they're damned if they do, and damed if they don't.

That aside, gales developing nicely off of the Southern tip of Ireland, more gusty winds to come along the channel, some exposed areas seeing perhaps 60mph along the coast. Enjoy!

[chionomaniac]

What I meant is the predictions 5 days ago arn't going to happen by the looks of it which is abit of a shame, but hey at least if we get some snow that'll be a nice way to compensate!

Yes - enjoy what you get instead of moaning about what you don't!

[Bluebreezer54]

This thread and the previous one have pretty much been ruined for the likes of me tonight by one or two posters behaving like 5 year olds.

At least have some respect for the Moderators if no-one else, obviously asking too much though. Im fed up and dissilusioned with it.

[knightrider]

Wow, how close? I'm still in awe of those who have spotted this system so far in advance.

I'm not in awe, firstly the initially predicted winds where much higher then are now being indicated secondly in the initial run the models suggested the LP would move northwards up the country and head towards Scandenavia across the north-sea giving the whole of the UK a rough ride but paricularly in Scotland and north-east England so that was quite a way off being correct cause it's shifted a good 200 miles south instead of north and there was absolutely no mention of snow before!

[gottolovethisweather]

Stressing at the moment it looks as if S. Wales and the midlands could get some substantial snow but any slight deviation of the low alters the position of the cold and warm air so this isn't definitive but looks the best scenario.

Indeed. Looks/could be/maybe/potential for, all being ADVISORY words, after all that is what they are paid to do. In spite of what some may think, the powers that be or even any of the many respected folk in here are not CLAIRVOYANTS.

Seeing that Chiono is lurking, what's your opinion on the latest? Any further ideas or data to add?

Is it possible to also add the link to the whiners thread, for those that wish to continue on in that vain. As an aside, I imagine we can have an aftermath analysis thread come Saturday, could we not? Paul?

Anybody got a current satellite image of the said storm.

Questions, questions, questions.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

[knocker]

The atlantic 1800 chart.

[knightrider]

Yes - enjoy what you get instead of moaning about what you don't!

Bet I wont get any snow either knowing my luck! It'll all turn out to be a damp squib you watch lol

[Liam J]

Tonight could be quite windy for a time over the SW and Southern Coasts as this feature zips through, Gusts around 60mph off the south coast of Ireland currently.

Edited December 14, 2011 by Liam J

[Matty M]

The MetOffice will have this sat loop going in Exeter tonight for sure

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-rgb.html

[WaitingForMackerel]

Thought i would drop in some currrent conditions.

No particular increase in wind speed as such, but deffinately more movement in the air. whooshing has got louder.

15-35mph south/southwesterly, pressure has just started dropping, 0.8 hpa in last 20 min . 6.3c. Just had a small rain shower

Have been following the low over ireland which just skirts my location, met office forcast for milford haven has been slowly pushing its main pulse for here later. It has just increased the wind speed slightly and forcast it to last for a longer period.

Not expecting anything dramatic, but it gives me something to focus my attention

Edited December 14, 2011 by Treiagonaut

[PEMBS PIRATE]

well if there was/is 80/90mph winds coming my way (i dont think there are the worst will be south of here) but you would be welcome to them, i dont fancy half a roof and no electricity coming up to Christmas.......be careful where these storms are concerned you may just get what you wish for ...........

[Just Before Dawn]

The GFS 12z chart for 9am Friday morning is interesting in that it has the low funnelling up the Channel, with another Low sat in the Norwegian Sea troughing toward Shetland, with a pretty brisk NE wind across the North Sea. It's fortunate that tide heights are fairly benign at the moment because there's the potential for conditions to create some impressive tide heights along parts of the North Sea Coast on Friday morning.

[PEMBS PIRATE]

Thought i would drop in some currrent conditions.

No particular increase in wind speed as such, but deffinately more movement in the air. whooshing has got louder.

15-35mph south/southwesterly, pressure has just started dropping, 0.8 hpa in last 20 min . 6.3c. Just had a small rain shower

Have been following the low over ireland which just skirts my location, met office forcast for milford haven has been slowly pushing its main pulse for here later. It has just increased the wind speed slightly and forcast it to last for a longer period.

Not expecting anything dramatic, but it gives me something to focus my attention

yes the wind speed has crept up to 51mph gusts 00:00 - 03:00 from 41mph, not expecting to much here, but south Lundy (Lands End) have been issued storm 10 on the local shipping forcast.......

[Zenarcher]

My update for tonight and tomorrow,

Tonight we see some low pressure passing through Ireland giving some windy conditions in the far South some reports of 60mph gusts are being recorded. The winds are forecast to drop a bit before they reach England tonight but will still bring gales for Southern parts especially South Western England and Southern Wales tonight.

Now for the main topic of the moment tomorrow nights low. I'm feeling fairly confident that the UK will miss the worse of the winds tomorrow as France and other parts of Europe look to see the worse of it,

9pm Thursday

As you can see in the chart below the ECM has placed the low in the English channel at 12am Friday bringing the worst of the winds to France,

Then through out the night the stormy conditions are expected to go through Europe while Britain will see some colder air come in making it much colder for most area's bringing ice and possibly wintry weather into the picture.

As for the Met Office predicting this low I think they have done a good job at first like all of us they were unsure and put the entire UK on a early warning for the wind. As time went by we grew more confident that this would take a more southerly path so then just England and Wales were put on a early wind warning. Now we feel pretty confident the worst will miss the UK but the Met Office have wind warnings out to be on the safe side for the far south of England.

Edited December 14, 2011 by weathermaster

[Liam J]

Gust of 78mph on the Southern tip of Ireland! This could get quite interesting for the far SW soon.

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Edited December 14, 2011 by Liam J

[gottolovethisweather]

My update for tonight and tomorrow,

Tonight we see some low pressure passing through Ireland giving some windy conditions in the far South some reports of 60mph gusts are being recorded. The winds are forecast to drop a bit before they reach England tonight but will still bring gales for Southern parts especially South Western England and Southern Wales tonight.

Now for the main topic of the moment tomorrow nights low. I'm feeling fairly confident that the UK will miss the worse of the winds tomorrow as France and other parts of Europe look to see the worse of it,

9pm Thursday

As you can see in the chart below the ECM has placed the low in the English channel at 12am Friday bringing the worst of the winds to France,

Then through out the night the stormy conditions are expected to go through Europe while Britain will see some colder air come in making it much colder for most area's bringing ice and possibly wintry weather into the picture.

As for the Met Office predicting this low I think they have done a good job at first like all of us they were unsure and put the entire UK on a early warning for the wind. As time went by we grew more confident that this would take a more southerly path so then just England and Wales were put on a early wind warning. Now we feel pretty confident the worst will miss the UK but the Met Office have wind warnings out to be on the safe side for the far south of England.

A very well out together post there!

I reckon we should add a new word to the swear filter, what word might that be. Also, don't forget that the regionals are open guys n gals.

Can someone perhaps provide all the links to them.

Thanks again.

gottolovethisweather

Edited December 14, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[wimblettben]

I do think that the Met Office are definitely making the right decision to keep the wind warnings for tomorrow as it is still possible that at the last minute the low could shift northwards unexpectedly.

This scenario though does look very unlikely as the models have kept the same general track for a number of runs. Mind you though tonight in iteself looks like it will be windy for southern areas later.

[Matty M]

Must be some brisk winds off the south Irish coast!

40 Gust 68

[Zenarcher]

A very well out together post there!

I reckon we should add a new word to the swear filter, what word might that be. Also, don't forget that the regionals are open guys n gals.

Can someone perhaps provide all the links to them.

Thanks again.

gottolovethisweather

Thanks,

Yep all the regional discussions can be found here --- http://forum.netweather.tv/forum/142-regional-discussions/

[Liam J]

The wind will pick up into the SW soon, already signs of this looking at XC wind map.

The odd gust to 70mph can't be ruled out in exposure with mean speeds of 40-46mph progged on the tip of Cornwall.

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Edited December 14, 2011 by Liam J

[Biggin]

My update for tonight and tomorrow,

Tonight we see some low pressure passing through Ireland giving some windy conditions in the far South some reports of 60mph gusts are being recorded. The winds are forecast to drop a bit before they reach England tonight but will still bring gales for Southern parts especially South Western England and Southern Wales tonight.

Now for the main topic of the moment tomorrow nights low. I'm feeling fairly confident that the UK will miss the worse of the winds tomorrow as France and other parts of Europe look to see the worse of it,

9pm Thursday

As you can see in the chart below the ECM has placed the low in the English channel at 12am Friday bringing the worst of the winds to France,

Then through out the night the stormy conditions are expected to go through Europe while Britain will see some colder air come in making it much colder for most area's bringing ice and possibly wintry weather into the picture.

As for the Met Office predicting this low I think they have done a good job at first like all of us they were unsure and put the entire UK on a early warning for the wind. As time went by we grew more confident that this would take a more southerly path so then just England and Wales were put on a early wind warning. Now we feel pretty confident the worst will miss the UK but the Met Office have wind warnings out to be on the safe side for the far south of England.

Arnt you presuming the ECM has got it right??

[weatherobsuk]

I'd go for the Pembrokeshire coastline myself, given the strongest of this LP winds are centered around the LLC, most likely from convective influences rather than pressure differentials. Haverfordwest/Fishguard the next mainland recording station to get readings from this LP once it comes across the Irish Sea, by which time SSTs would throw up a few lively cells but the pressure system decaying ever moreso.

[Zenarcher]

Arnt you presuming the ECM has got it right??

I'm using the ECM because I use it all the time for wind events where I live we get windy weather very often several times a month on average. The ECM always seems to perform the best for me. But tonight I could show you the GFS and UKMO charts for midnight tomorrow and they would show pretty much the same thing.

I'm not saying Southern England won't see anything I expect some strong winds just the worst of it all will be over Europe.

Edited December 14, 2011 by weathermaster

[iand61]

just a question for any of our more experienced posters.

The Met Office are confident of the outcome being one of Scenario's 1 and 2.

looking at the projected paths, they both take the same track into the SW approaches but then 2 turns North Easterly bringing the stronger winds further into Southern England. Considering the projected paths forecast earlier in the week, Is it not still possible that the storm could set a more northerly course whilst still in the Atlantic with even more widespread gales occuring.

Before anyone asks this is not an IMBY question as i've no wish for storm damage on my house but just an observation that the current track over the Atlantic seems as if it's running on tram lines.