Atlantic Storms 13th to 16th December 2011 - Part 4

[knocker]

Friday midnight and midday. Pressures and gusts.

[Liam J]

I'm thinking the main interest will be snowfall for high elevations as the depression pulls down colder uppers on it's journey over Southern England? the strongest winds will stay out over the channel and N France will receive a battering.

[knightrider]

The thread begins "no more MET bashing", and then within 18 mins 2 people have done just that. Are you people 14 or something?

I did say I wont MET bash anymore but I just wanted to get that last point across and to be honest I think it's a perfectly reasonable solution as to how the MetO could save themselves the embarrasment.

[gottolovethisweather]

I will repost this video as I believe it shows clearly the latest situation (well it was the latest at the time)

As more model guidance comes out, more updates will be forthcoming.

I'm on here to learn about the non-exact science that is meteorology, so let's carry on learning from the more knowledgeable posters. I must say, many thanks to Roger J Smith's assessment on things.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

[Wivenswold]

Friday midnight and midday. Pressures and gusts.

Wow, how close? I'm still in awe of those who have spotted this system so far in advance.

[S88]

Sorry but it is relevant to talk about the Met Office in relation to these storms, as they are just a Government Department forecasting the events.

If you can't criticise a government department when you don't think they are handling things as well as you think they should, i'd say it is fair comment to be honest and it's a bit strange to say you can't comment on the met.

I rarely criticise the met but i think they deserve it in this case. They made the classic mistake which amateurs like ourselves often make - called it too early. Just shows they are human i suppose.

i won't say any more.

I think they have been excellent. They warned us early about the storms - better to be safe and make people aware of the event. For this storm on Friday, there was a chance it could have been very serious indeed (it still could be severe if it takes a northerly track). What we have seen today is regular updates from the met office and through the BBC as well. I think the coverage has been excellent. I know you are entitled to your opinion but in my own opinion I believe you are totally wrong in this instance.

[Upgrade]

F.F.S.

p*$$!

no need to stoop to abuse.

[knightrider]

Friday midnight and midday. Pressures and gusts.

Storm..what storm? Those gust predictions are pathetic, barely a gale LOL

[Dean E]

Quite a light show out in the channel from here, watch out Brighton!

Anyway, I don't think people should be discussing if the MetO are forecasting this right or to cover their backs because they are doing what a Meteorologist should be doing and that predicting the weather. By giving us a prediction, it helps us see whats going to happen.

This storm is different and there are a few in every year that are hard to predict. Even down to the last 6 hours, one huge thing could change.

So I think the MetO have done the right thing by issuing a warning 5 days ahead for Strong winds. Even now, 24 hours away, Snow has now come into the picture, which shows how hard this is to forecast for them!

So give them a break aye! We all really have no idea what is going to happen, only a 'forecast'!

[knocker]

Have been looking at the situation in depth past two hours. UK Met Office caution is justified. This evolution is difficult for the models and any slight changes in set-up now to 00z could pull out the entire low from its current location rather than the bits and pieces that the models show. What has complicated the situation is this smaller-scale low presently over Ireland, inserted between the deep low from Tuesday and the developing storm north of the Azores.

Anyway, I don't see any danger signs of sudden developments around 40W but the Met Office have to keep that option open (I believe) until at least after the 00z model runs. But would have to say that the most likely track is through the Channel into Belgium, which is going to result in only moderate wind speeds for southern England and a cold rain turning to sleet or snow both at elevation and in the colder aftermath. The probability of some more energetic northward pushing track is realistically about 10% now, but 36h is a long time in storm development.

I agree with that and the METO have been plugging this line for some time with some agreement from the GFS. Not that helps. Have just posted it above.

[gottolovethisweather]

Friday midnight and midday. Pressures and gusts.

Some nice input there WS. I would say the ahem "you know who" are more confident of it being a mere gale, potentially with storm force gusts. Now the focus is on the precipitation.

Kind Regards

gottolovethisweather

[Jane Louise]

RIGHT!! no more arguing here, this is getting hard work trying to keep you all in order! anymore and posts will be deleted. Thank you!

[Biggin]

http://www.metoffice...e_pressure.html

T+0...T+12....T+24 are tonights low................T+48 is 'the' low everyone is talking about

36 to 84 are pretty revealing to re the situation afterwards NNW anyone???

[Purplepixii]

Quite a light show out in the channel from here, watch out Brighton!

Oooh it's tempting to pop out to the coast as I don't see anything from here, guess you are higher up than me with a much better view

[knightrider]

I will repost this video as I believe it shows clearly the latest situation (well it was the latest at the time)

As more model guidance comes out, more updates will be forthcoming.

I'm on here to learn about the non-exact science that is meteorology, so let's carry on learning from the more knowledgeable posters. I must say, many thanks to Roger J Smith's assessment on things.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

So going by that video we arn't getting the gales now THIS MAJORLY SUCKS!

[Uncle_Barty]

Here you go, from the NOAA NHC page

http://www.ssd.noaa....t/natl/wv-l.jpg

Cheers!

[Callie]

Fair bit of thunder and lightning round here for the past two hours!

[IanM]

RIGHT!! no more arguing here, this is getting hard work trying to keep you all in order! anymore and posts will be deleted. Thank you!

To reiterate, read the first post, read it again, then before you decide to post make sure that reading it two times was enough, thanks

[Harry]

Just imagine the following if you will;

1. Having potentially a terrific storm

2. Serving the fattest, juiciest and most succulent slice of humble pie!!

As has been emphasised before, the storm is a seedling at the moment. As mentioned by Chris Fawkes, this is one of the strongest jets he has ever seen in the N Atlantic (and indeed I have, which isn't difficult as he's older than me, lol). It is also quite rare for rapid cyclogenesis to happen close to the south coast of the British Isles, therefore how it will interact with the land will be interesting. There are a number of deep/shallow lows currently around the UK along with a rampant anticyclone in the Azores region.

The atmosphere, both here and in the Atlantic, is about as complex as it gets.

Remember, in October 1987, a setup not too dissimilar from this (in fact, VERY similar!), the models and the forecasters were fully expecting the storm to track as it is this time. Across the SE with the strongest winds across France.........we all now what happened that evening....I see no reason whatsoever why that couldnt happen again....I equally FAIL wholeheartedly with the assertion that the MetO should not warn at all.....23 years the MetO have been trying to wipe the egg off their face...any suggestion that they forget that lesson is ludicrous!!

I hope we can enjoy the radar images and emerging models!!

Quite a light show out in the channel from here, watch out Brighton!

Indeed, I saw a flash earlier, along with several last night!! I LOVE this time of year....nightly clear skies overhead with nature's finest illuminations across the horizon

Edited December 14, 2011 by IanM
tidying up after deletions

[Snowman15]

So going by that video we arn't getting the gales now THIS MAJORLY SUCKS!

Nothing is final until it arrives!!!!!!!

[knocker]

Some nice input there WS. I would say the ahem "you know who" are more confident of it being a mere gale, potentially with storm force gusts. Now the focus is on the precipitation.

Kind Regards

gottolovethisweather

Stressing at the moment it looks as if S. Wales and the midlands could get some substantial snow but any slight deviation of the low alters the position of the cold and warm air so this isn't definitive but looks the best scenario.

[chionomaniac]

So going by that video we arn't getting the gales now THIS MAJORLY SUCKS!

If you don't get gales you were never going to get gales. The models / meto are only trying to predict what is going to happen. Believe it or not, the models predictions five days ago had no influence on what Friday will bring!

Perhaps you had better let off steam in the appropriate thread.

[knightrider]

I for 1 dont like to see people get hurt or killed in storms but I sure luv the drama of a good gale with the howling noises, the trees bowing over and in some cases getting ripped up then seeing the pictures of roofs being torn away certainly makes for amazing imagery. So I would luv to see this storm take on scenario 2

[Harry]

Just popped out for a ciggie - sky lit up like a Christmas tree to SSW! Loooooovely!!!!

[Liam J]

I think the south coast could experience strong to gale force winds as the depression track through the channel, but nothing severe unless we have any sort of upgrade in the coming model runs.