Atlantic Storms 13th to 16th December 2011 - Part 4

[bobbydog]

A very well out together post there!

I reckon we should add a new word to the swear filter, what word might that be. Also, don't forget that the regionals are open guys n gals.

Can someone perhaps provide all the links to them.

Thanks again.

gottolovethisweather

this site gives a good view over a wide area of the atlantic and europe

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

[gottolovethisweather]

this site gives a good view over a wide area of the atlantic and europe

http://www.yr.no/sat..._animasjon.html

It is a corker, that site. I tried it earlier but it was not working.

Judging by the sequence so far, it looks like the cloud mass of this system (if I'm looking in the right area) is heading towards Spain, yet alone France.

I do hope Nick Sussex doesn't get too much trouble from this system. I believe he's not a fan of windstorms having suffered from them in the past.

18z GFS should be coming out now guys n gals.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Edited December 14, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[PEMBS PIRATE]

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/ tonights low in action perfectly.............(thunder,lightening and hail here now)

[bobbydog]

It is a corker, that site. I tried it earlier but it was not working.

Judging by the sequence so far, it looks like the cloud mass of this system (if I'm looking in the right area) is heading towards Spain, yet alone France.

I do hope Nick Sussex doesn't get too much trouble from this system. I believe he's not a fan of windstorms having suffered from them in the past.

18z GFS should be coming out now guys n gals.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

dificult to say where it will go as the centre of the low hasn't really developed yet, which is probably why the Meto are still keeping the warnings in place for the south coast

[Liam J]

Tomorrows depression is even further south, barely a breeze this side of the channel ( according to GFS 18z)

Edited December 14, 2011 by Liam J

[jean91]

Evening to all :

Most forecasts see winds gusting of up to 75 miles even 80 miles for the Paris area and the south of the region may be a bit more exposed.

http://www.meteo-par.../previsions.php ( sorry that is in French)

And the wind is now what is supposed to be at 4 am tomorrow morning in Brittany over 100kh per hour about 60 miles one at 70 mls at Pointe du Raz :http://www.infoclimat.fr/

A orange warning has been issued by météo France for Brittany head for submersive waves ( sorry not sure if right English word)

Edited December 14, 2011 by jean91

[Liam J]

Well after tomorrows weather the model outputs show a much less interesting outlook with no storms to really keep tabs on!

I expect ice will become a major problem in many areas over the coming nights.

[Zenarcher]

Tomorrows depression is even further south, barely a breeze this side of the channel ( according to GFS 18z)

Agreed also the 18z has pushed it a tad further South. However the 18z NAE has it still slightly more North than the GFS and a bit deeper I think. But still has the worst of the winds over France.

Edited December 14, 2011 by weathermaster

[Liam J]

Agreed also the 18z has pushed it a tad further South. However the 18z NAE has it still slightly more North than the GFS and a bit deeper I think.

Interesting differences at such a short range, even the models can't agree! NAE would bring very strong winds along the south coast whilst the GFS would not.

I wouldn't like to be putting a forecast together that's for sure!

[Downburst]

Very impressed with the ECM, a few days back the GFS had the dart board low up and down etc and the ECM had a couple of early goes at getting this correct. So nice bit of modelling there from a very difficult starting point. I think this has been a great event for teaching us a lot, me for one, has been a fun event. Just hope Sarkozy doesn't get blown off his little feet walking around the grounds of his palace tomorrow

[jean91]

Interesting differences at such a short range, even the models can't agree! NAE would bring very strong winds along the south coast whilst the GFS would not.

I wouldn't like to be putting a forecast together that's for sure!

True , just saw the tv forecast coming from météo France and strong winds on a line just North of Paris , but that may still change.

Also a quick report from Brittany where the sea really looked rough.

True 18hGFS puts it a little more south but will still be windy in the south of Paris :

Very impressed with the ECM, a few days back the GFS had the dart board low up and down etc and the ECM had a couple of early goes at getting this correct. So nice bit of modelling there from a very difficult starting point. I think this has been a great event for teaching us a lot, me for one, has been a fun event. Just hope Sarkozy doesn't get blown off his little feet walking around the grounds of his palace tomorrow

Not sure if he willbe in Berlin with Angela!!!sorry for this out of topic answer!!!!

[Liam J]

True , just saw the tv forecast coming from météo France and strong winds on a line just North of Paris , but that may still change.

Also a quick report from Brittany where the sea really looked rough.

True 18hGFS puts it a little more south but will still be windy in the south of Paris :

Hi Jean, you look like you could have some very strong winds come Thursday afternoon, quite significant looking at the wind chart you've posted. GFS model has placed the depression further south still on the latest run, the exact track is still open for minor adjustments.

[Storm Track]

Now, there is a powerful storm hitting western France to the southern British Isles Wednesday night will be followed by an even stronger storm, this one packing high mega winds and torrential rain over a wide area of western Europe, beginning Thursday. Along with potentially damaging winds and flooding rain, the newest storm will hurl hammering waves against the Atlantic shore from France and northwest Spain to southern England, and possibly east to Belgium and Netherlands late Thursday through Friday and even a possible hurricane force winds with a very strong extra tropical cyclone as a category 3 hurricane on the way.

[jean91]

If still further south The Bordeaux area and many places in the center coast( south of Brittany head) to south west coas tmay get a hell of a thusday night

Wellit it a rehearsal for tomorrow? : wind really picking up very strong on the western atlantic shores:http://www.infoclimat.fr/ ( sorry in French!!)

Hope all will keep safe especially in Paris a large urban areas where most go on with their lives even if a warning is on.

[Storm Track]

I got now a heavy rain with blinding wind in the Southern East.

[jean91]

I got now a heavy rain with blinding wind in the Southern East.

Yes not bad in the channel :

http://www.meteox.co...oom&x=165&y=262

Yes not bad in the channel :

http://www.meteox.co...oom&x=165&y=262

A long stretching band of rain in the channel now :http://www.meteo60.f...ardie-paris.php

Edited December 14, 2011 by jean91

[Liam J]

I got now a heavy rain with blinding wind in the Southern East.

Quite an intense band of rain brushing the Kent coast with an increasing wind, it doesn't look to strong atm.

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

[Storm Track]

Please read this info about this warning and log onto click here

[Liam J]

Please read this info about this warning and log onto click here

That sounds a bit much, looking at the model outputs I can't see anything to suggest weather that severe or justify that forecast.

Edited December 14, 2011 by Liam J

[jean91]

Please read this info about this warning and log onto click here

Hey Welcome on board netweather from France!!

[Liam J]

Hi guys, if you click on profile settings you can add weather preferences to display in your profile, always interesting to see the different weather types each member prefers

Edited December 14, 2011 by Liam J

[Snow and storms]

I am still convinced this is going to be another 1987 storm, you just never see a storm tracking that far south when the jet stream is where it is. I am sure it will exit the jet stream earlier giving it more power just as the great storm did. I shall prepare myself for the worst!

[jean91]

Hi guys, if you click on profile settings you can add weather preferences to display your profile, always interesting to see the different weather types each member prefers

will do , am off to bed for now( work work!!!!) will have a longer night tomorrow!!!!!

night all

[Snowman15]

Currently flying across the mid/northern atlantic on Flight Simulator with Real Time weather installed where the storm is building currently and the headwinds going to the usa are currently 170 knots (195.6mph) at 35000ft!! - Its quite bumpy and im glad it's not real life!

The wind kept increasing the further west i move up to 200mph and my Boeing 777 couldn't cope with the headwind so i've had to turn back! lol

Edited December 14, 2011 by Snowman15

[jean91]

I am still convinced this is going to be another 1987 storm, you just never see a storm tracking that far south when the jet stream is where it is. I am sure it will exit the jet stream earlier giving it more power just as the great storm did. I shall prepare myself for the worst!

Hope it is not going to turn like the 26th december 1999 storm here.And that every one listen to warnings.Certainly will sleep less tomorrow night so am off to bed.