Model Output Discussion - 12th December Onward

[OldMetMan]

Here is another with excellent overlays http://www.eumetrain...date=2011120718

Thanks, yes lots of options there.

[allenar]

I don't often post here, but there are a lot of annoying wind up posts, people stating the obvious and others out there to just wind people up. Checking over on two the same is happening there, with not such a surprise, the same people!

Sorry for the moan,

[OldMetMan]

18Z GFS is still telling the same story for Friday, although I can't say I think it looks right.

NOGAPS is rather similar to previous runs today but is tracking the low a bit further north, with strong gradient over the south of the UK.

This serves to strengthen my belief that this low will be complex and that even 24 hours ahead it will not necessarily be clear what will happen.

[Duane S.]

Hey guys ian keeps on going on about this mild just had alook at the bbc's monthly outlook they don't say much about it unless i red it wrong.

More models are now reflecting Friday's storm more like I have been expecting. i.e. an Easterly path through the southern half of the UK, maybe even lower. As OMM mentioned these seondary lows are a nightmare to forecast and has the potential to be a massive storm and deepen as it interacts with the very powerful jet.

Edited December 12, 2011 by Osbourne One-Nil
In telling people not to bite, you're biting!

[Upgrade]

More models are now reflecting Friday's storm more like I have been expecting. i.e. an Easterly path through the southern half of the UK, maybe even lower. As OMM mentioned these seondary lows are a nightmare to forecast and has the potential to be a massive storm and deepen as it interacts with the very powerful jet.

certainly starting to look quite worrying for Friday. The Met Office are clearly not buying the GFS's earlier prognosis of a shallow low sliding to the south of the UK.

[Fozfoster]

Sorry OON but you editing is a bigger bite!!...................sorry edit.LOL

Edited December 12, 2011 by Fozfoster

[Bobby]

The UKMO seems to be on it's own with a big storm now, though latest FAX chart still goes for it. So maybe the Met Office are seeing something the models aren't. Also NOGAPS 18z upgrades it on the 12z too... so who knows.

[Upgrade]

I think the GFS 18z was a slight upgrade too - the LP was deeper and more further north than on the 12z

[snowlover2009]

looking at the ecm chart at 96, the storm track pretty much hits central britain even though the storm is nearly out of the way, but you can imagine where the track is, so if anything gfs is on its own and if anything it will bring back the storm?

Wasnt the intensity of thursdays storm only latched onto a couple of days before though?

[jonnybradley]

certainly starting to look quite worrying for Friday. The Met Office are clearly not buying the GFS's earlier prognosis of a shallow low sliding to the south of the UK.

What is interesting is the beeb calling this system from Sunday onwards. There forecasters urging caution at this range as you would expect, but unusual for them to highlight a potential feature this far out.

[Liam J]

For what it's worth the NAE is coming into range with the system that is causing major headaches for the end of the week, If I'm correct the last 48hr frame shows the potential storm way out west over the Atlantic? this looks deeper than the other model outputs would have it by this stage?

Also a very powerful jet stream to interact with along with large temp gradients, tropical air mixing with a well below zero airmass from the north.

Ingredients for intense cyclogenesis.

Edited December 12, 2011 by Liam J

[Mark Neal.]

What is interesting is the beeb calling this system from Sunday onwards. There forecasters urging caution at this range as you would expect, but unusual for them to highlight a potential feature this far out.

I think it just proves that they are concerned by the nature of the low and won't take any risks, so have put our a warning a few days before, especially after last week. Perhaps they feel it is very important to get a message across to the public. I suppose i would rather want to be warned of a potential severe storm, than be told at last minute when most local authorities etc.. aren't well prepared.

Mark.

Edited December 12, 2011 by Mark Neal Ballooning

[Matty M]

For what it's worth the NAE is coming into range with the system that is causing major headaches for the end of the week, If I'm correct the last 48hr frame shows the potential storm way out west over the Atlantic? this looks deeper than the other model outputs would have it by this stage?

Bets on this being a fish storm northwest of Scotland on the 0z runs!!!!!!

by the way, nice catch, a sub 985mb centre at T48.

good work!

Edited December 12, 2011 by Matty M

[Upgrade]

For what it's worth the NAE is coming into range with the system that is causing major headaches for the end of the week, If I'm correct the last 48hr frame shows the potential storm way out west over the Atlantic? this looks deeper than the other model outputs would have it by this stage?

Also a very powerful jet stream to interact with.

it does look more powerful on this one . i'm actually quite worried now!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

A post/message I sent 5th Dec re what I think is coming re synoptic set up

Sent 05 December 2011 - 20:07

This month is going according to thoughts, it'll chuck it all at us BUT it won't produce a prolonged cold spell in the month. But thats no bad thing, as I want things to go along like this to heighten confidence of Jan. It so reminds me of 86/7.

Potential interesting period this month is around 15-17. Trough over Scandi but we could see a secondary low track w to e over the channel...that could be interesting set up.

Fred

This is looking very interesting. A reason why I mentioned in previous posts why I thought the GFS had storm too far north over weekend. And my Dec thoughts, and more mild than cold Xmas to New year

Posted 04 December 2011 - 22:57

Ok, it looks very much that the models are bringing a NW/SE axis over the UK. A colder set up than the, much vaunted by some, flat jet. I also think that there's more to come and I have an issue with the AZH and any linkage or build up of heights to our NE during this month. For me its too early and too much energy and the main Block from Siberia/ E Finland remains east. I think the programming of an 'elevated' ridge to our west linking with Greenland is the main potential player for the route to cold. In stratos thread and on record with Chiono, I stated I think any main cold shot will come for 3rd week of this month if it arrives...thats the week starting from midmonth but cold setup should prepare itself before then ie practice run?. I think N to NNW'ly is the route to cold with mid Atlantic block/ridge. It won't get entrenched IMO [if indeed it arrives ] as we revert to mild Christmas/following week towards New Year BUT kitchen sink and snow IMO at low levels for the south is possible latter part of this period

I think any riddance of the stronger heights to the NE scenario by any model down the line may be the one on the money and the GFS toys with the idea but IMO is too weak with the ridge holding its place down the line.

BFTP

Shock horror I am agreeing ISH with Ian Brown :smilz38:

BFTP

Edited December 12, 2011 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Bobby]

Latest FAX chart

Met Office still think this storm will happen it seems. That looks rather nasty.

Edited December 12, 2011 by Barb-

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Latest FAX chart

Met Office still think this storm will happen it seems. That looks rather nasty.

That track matches what BBC SE weatherman Michael Fish said...though he made it quite clear that track of LP was far from certain.

BFTP

Edited December 12, 2011 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[OldMetMan]

Looking at the charts for the weekend, I don't mean to be alarmist here, but I was wondering if anyone has been considering the risk of a storm surge in the North Sea? My own view is that things are moving too fast, so sustained N/NW winds along the east coast are unlikely to last long enough to generate a surge.

I wonder if anyone has any thoughts on this?

[Liam J]

GME model bombs the low as it approaches SW Ireland.

[Welsh_Weather]

Looking at the charts for the weekend, I don't mean to be alarmist here, but I was wondering if anyone has been considering the risk of a storm surge in the North Sea? My own view is that things are moving too fast, so sustained N/NW winds along the east coast are unlikely to last long enough to generate a surge.

I wonder if anyone has any thoughts on this?

Well there is a chance of a storm surge but in my opinion it won't happen as it doesn't coincide with spring tides, and as you it seems to move too fast.

[Upgrade]

looks like it will still be deepening and developing over us with quite some intensity, central pressure at 950mb come friday? that's a "Low low" for central Britain.

[kold weather]

GFS and ECM BOTH have a very interesting set-up that would likely lead to snow for at least some in the Midlands, esp on higher ground.

The 18z GFS actually looks very interesting with regards to snow chances, upper air 850hpa's look a little high but there is clearly cold enough air at the surface. Might be worth keeping an eye out, especially if it does stay weaker.

[Zakos]

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20111212/18/t850Northamptonshire.png

GFS operational once again a complete mild outlier in FI

A lot of cold looking runs, The control throws us in the freezer for a week! :smilz38:

As for the next few days, also looks likely many will see some snow.

[davehsug]

http://hw.nwstatic.c...amptonshire.png

GFS operational once again a complete mild outlier in FI

A lot of cold looking runs, The control throws us in the freezer for a week! :smilz38:

As for the next few days, also looks likely many will see some snow.

The operational is not an outlier anymore than the control is. They are respectively at the top & bottom end of the ensembles.

[kold weather]

Ensembles don't really look that cold, but then again it is true that few of them look so dominated by the sub-tropical high either. most seem to the high far enough to the north that it allows at least some colder shots down at times.