Model Output Discussion - 12th December Onward

[snowlover2009]

Interesting gfs ensembles, the control is cold throughout! The OP mild outlier once again, remember how many mild outliers there were for the start of December and they didn't verified as we have seen and a big downgrade from what I can see, for anything mild, more options open....

[Zakos]

Interesting gfs ensembles, the control is cold throughout! The OP mild outlier once again, remember how many mild outliers there were for the start of December and they didn't verified as we have seen and a big downgrade from what I can see, for anything mild, more options open....

great!! The ensembles, if nothing else, disproove those who say "mild Xmas and beyond is certain" If anything (remember its still FI) the trend is towards increasingly colder conditions. I must say mark vogans forecast for December has panned out very well so far this . Conditions have slowly got colder against the average, with some powerful storms, exactly as he forecast I believe. Fingers crossed the rest of his forecast goes as planned!

The operational is not an outlier anymore than the control is. They are respectively at the top & bottom end of the ensembles.

yes, but it is virtually on its own in forecasting a blowtorch setup. Thats the point I was making sorry I was not clear with that should have said. Just as the control is an outlier in producing a powerful Scandi high. Edited December 13, 2011 by Zakos

[weathe20]

0z still showing the LP giving northern France the stronger winds. Is the UK met still going for a different track?

[KTtom]

Wow we have been spoilt in recent years. All this talk about the potential storm at the end of the week (GFS still says no), that no-one seems to have noticed we will be entering the coldest period of the Winter so far for 3-4 days post Friday. Looks like a good chance of snow showers as far south as the Midlands at least as well as some widespread frosts.

Edited December 13, 2011 by KTtom

[Weather-history]

On ECM 0z, the low for Thursday night has almost vanished, it looks like a Channel runner. Hardly a breathe of wind now!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm721.gif

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

GFS now showing snow as the low moves away

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Little sign of anything mild in the run up to christmas on the models this morning.

ECM 0z op pulls a rabbit out of the hat and keeps things cold until the 23rd of December and the gfs 0z op was one of the mildest run on the spreads.

Absolutely no sign of any 'hairdryer' anyway.

[Great Plum]

Fully agree... The 0z ensembles are trending lower and the op is one of the mildest again!

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

The differences between the GFS and ECM at only 72 hours is stark... Low pressure or not?

[Duane S.]

GFS keeps the storm well south, it could go further south yet IMO as well despite other models tracking it through the north of the UK. ECM say storm? what storm?? BUT then goes on to model very interesting latter charts

[wolvesfan]

Morning all,

ECM 00z,Interesting to see after a stormy week coming up,high pressure next week building over the uk and eventually linking with the russian anti cyclone close to the christmas period,what's instore for the new year?.

[Costa Del Fal]

GFS really going for Northern edge snow on Thursday night/Friday morning for the Midlands and East Anglia. Will the low go any further South as if so the potential for snow will probably move south with it too.

[Jason T]

Well everything and more to play for now. Alot of split decisions in the output. However thursday and friday will be interesting to say the least and beyond that cant much mildness about.

[johnholmes]

well this is going to be interesting-watch this space or more likely the Met O web site. I would hate to be any duty media forecaster today. Something has to change. The Fax charts, and models at T+48-72 show one thing. The Met O forecasts on their web site and their still pretty vague warnings something rather different. The senior man this morning has quite a task.

It will be very interesting watching how they deal with the problem and indeed how the weather actually plays out for Thursday into Friday.

[wolvesfan]

well this is going to be interesting-watch this space or more likely the Met O web site. I would hate to be any duty media forecaster today. Something has to change. The Fax charts, and models at T+48-72 show one thing. The Met O forecasts on their web site and their still pretty vague warnings something rather different. The senior man this morning has quite a task.

It will be very interesting watching how they deal with the problem and indeed how the weather actually plays out for Thursday into Friday.

Morning John,

Whats's your take on it?,

Cheers.

[SMU]

Morning All- well the snow risk increases this week as the jet continues to track along a NW> SE Axis- I did mention the prospect of lows sliding through in the flow ( clippers IIRC) - remember they need to stay quite shallow- This small system could introduce some wintryness- although its marginal http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-48.png?0 However the once progged GFS storm isnt getting the energy feed it once had & is now progged as being a small feature- that could however bring snow to Ireland wales & portions of England- http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-72.png?0 Initially some elevation needed http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-4-72.png?0 Although back edge stuff certainly a prospect- http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-4-72.png?0 the Theta charts look a little marginal the wrong way over + 10 http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-6-78.png?0 Best spot for me Elevation towards Wales ( west midlands etc) & in wales- An interesting day to look at the models- If we have a shot at a white xmas it needs to come from the east & develop in the models over the next few days- The ensembles have trended colder today- however we need a bit more high migration northwards rather than eastwards if its going to happen... interesting to see where the 00z ECM sits in the debilt ensembles- Steve

Edited December 13, 2011 by Steve Murr

[nick sussex]

Little sign of anything mild in the run up to christmas on the models this morning.

ECM 0z op pulls a rabbit out of the hat and keeps things cold until the 23rd of December and the gfs 0z op was one of the mildest run on the spreads.

Absolutely no sign of any 'hairdryer' anyway.

Fortunately the hairdryer looks to have blown a fuse for the timebeing!

Putting aside the will it wont it storm, theres growing uncertainty as to what happens after this nw/n flow following the low, its these pieces of energy being ejected eastwards by the both the GFS and UKMO that keep me interested, the ECM goes for a simple topple of the high then with low heights over northern Italy which teases with a possible continental flow later.

We're still not out of the woods though with the Azores high, the PV is likely to regroup over western Greenland and thats when the Azores high will make an attempt to move into Europe, if we can avoid that then things could get more interesting.

[Tim Bland]

Fully agree... The 0z ensembles are trending lower and the op is one of the mildest again!

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

The differences between the GFS and ECM at

only 72 hours is stark... Low pressure or not?

WOW big flip on the ensembles! Most go for cold continuing through Christmas!

[Tom Montalbano]

Morning all,

John H, real conundrum this one, forecast models now show Fridays low zipping along the Channel but any readjustment north would put southern most counties in the firing line again for some very strong winds. This one could go down to the wire!

http://nwstatic.co.uk/fax/PPVK89.png

http://hw.nwstatic.c.../72/h500slp.png

Also, Weds nights shortwave could prove a little lively too, latest Fax has pulled that a little further north. Should zip through and have some fairly lively weather associated with it.

http://nwstatic.co.uk/fax/PPVI89.png

Regards,

Tom.

Edited December 13, 2011 by TomSE20

[SMU]

One for TOM SE20

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2011/12/13/basis00/ukuk/rart/11121606_2_1300.gif

only 3 days away

S

[Tom Montalbano]

One for TOM SE20

http://expert-images...1606_2_1300.gif

only 3 days away

S

Hi Steve,

Nice to see you back. If only eh! Models looking a bit more interesting this morning, hoping to see the jet run out of steam soon! All that talk of 84/85, remember this.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119841227.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119841231.gif

and finally this

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1985/Rrea00119850105.gif

Took a few bites of the cherry to get there but come the end of this month hoping to see this kind of pattern developing in the models.

Regards,

Tom

[Alex]

The Thursday/Friday storm looks like the strongest winds will be to the south of the low however as the storm whips out to the north sea, it looks like an intense severe gale could develop across east anglia and the south east on the western flank - severe north westerlies anyone? Any movement to the north could bring back memories of 1987?

[Nick F]

Well, Exeter having a torrid time knowing where to put late Thurs/early Fri's low on their fax charts -and as John says, MetO warnings rather vague. If the low tracks across Sern most counties a la GFS, then a real risk of some heavy snowfall across Wales The Midlands and perhaps the Chilterns, Salisbury Plain and N Downs on Friday. Any further north the snow risk across northern England and north Wales with some severe gales across southern counties of England. P45s for the senior forecasters at Exeter the way they are handling this so far!

A cold northwesterly over the w/e will see snow showers for favoured locations of the north and west including the Cheshire Gap, inland areas staying dry perhaps, though small features in the flow could bring sleet and snow inland.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Wow we have been spoilt in recent years. All this talk about the potential storm at the end of the week (GFS still says no), that no-one seems to have noticed we will be entering the coldest period of the Winter so far for 3-4 days post Friday. Looks like a good chance of snow showers as far south as the Midlands at least as well as some widespread frosts.

Oh yes we have!!

Well, the models are trended colder and prolonging the cold, there's a turn up for the books eh? Looking at the ECM the Friday feature looks like its gone into France! It then goes on eventually to link AZH with the Russian HP. Something more akin the GFS which is similar but doesn't get there may be more the outcome.....this time. I agree re snow potential, this 3rd week will be COLD.

BFTP

[tinybill]

That track matches what BBC SE weatherman Michael Fish said...though he made it quite clear that track of LP was far from certain.

BFTPreg the storm i think the south and east have got to get ready i.e we all know what happened in our area when we got hit by the great storm

[MisfitDog3]

Very interesting how much everything can change in 24 hours! Short term and long term. Fridays low is pin a tail on a donkey time...me? I reckon it's going straight through the midlands. Uh-oh on the southern flanks.

Strangely no talk of anything being 'nailed on' this morning? ;-)