Atlantic Storms - 13th December 2011 Onwards Part 3

[johnholmes]

I think the Met Office are handling it well considering they let the cat out of the bag so early just when the low shot south on 50% of the models. Gradually down playing it as each forecast goes out.

Thanks for the PDF John I'm also interested over the possibility of Snow further north from this low.

that will come out when I do the model thread pdf about the effects of Thur-Fri and afterwards, I'll make sure I give my ideas on any snow potential-later this evening after some dinner and a glass or two of red!

[Snowman15]

Im no pro but my instinct tells me the south coast will get battered this Thursday/Friday. Pure guesswork no models/charts or anything looked at (as i tbh i don't really understand them too well). Will now wait and see what happens on Thursday

[knightrider]

Talking of snow pottencial looks like after this next storm passes through if it ever does come the weekend it's turning much colder, 1st significant cold snap on the way I think.

[Purplepixii]

Woohooo cracking lil thunderstorm, 5 big strikes and loud rumbles was a ncie CG in there too!

Hi again SK, blow them over this way would you please? Just windy rain here today.

Oh and johnholmes you're a star - thankyou ever so much for that pdf, very useful for someone like me who has limited weather-related knowledge!

[Robbie Garrett]

Just done a quick overlay timelapse, this is what the MetOffice give I cannot for the love of life see how it pushes the azores ridge to the south far enough to blast the french but then again, this system is apparently from tropical origins. Scenario 1 is in Purple I believe, as that would give the South the worste winds.

A huge degree of uncertainty of the exact forecast of this Low Presure!

Edited December 13, 2011 by Robbie Garrett

[knocker]

Or our weather predicting technology is just crap and totally outdated compared with theirs?

How come the METO hurricane prediction is comparable to the National Hurricane Center then?

[Upgrade]

The BBC are really floundering now about Friday. Christ Fawkes was saying " low probability " a couple of hours ago, the latest ones say "significant risk" if severe weather........what to believe!

[knightrider]

Just done a quick overlay timelapse, this is what the MetOffice give I cannot for the love of life see how it pushes the azores ridge to the south far enough to blast the french but then again, this system is apparently from tropical origins. Scenario 1 is in Purple I believe, as that would give the South the worste winds.

A huge degree of uncertainty of the exact forecast of this Low Presure!

I think the more southerly track is the favourite at this stage meaning northern France will take a battering but the UK will just get shaved by it could get wild in the channel but mainland Britain shouldn't be more then just a little blowy with some showers, but if the more northerly track prooves correct then hold on tight lol Does anyone know just how much pottencial this LP has and what sort of windspeeds we could expect to see across England and Wales if we got a direct hit?

[Paul]

Ignoring Fri for now, winds now gusting to 78mph in Scotland:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=current;type=maxg

And Cairngorm has been approaching 100mph again this pm with 98mph the top gust there today (these aren't included on the above link but will be soon).

[simon29]

could this storm track much further north and affect northwest england or is it to late for this now

[knightrider]

The BBC are really floundering now about Friday. Christ Fawkes was saying " low probability " a couple of hours ago, the latest ones say "significant risk" if severe weather........what to believe!

It's swings and roundabouts at the moment they wont give a final verdict until at least another 24 hours.

[January Snowstorm]

The Met Office have shocked me this week.

They are usually so accurate but for some reason, unknown to all of us, decided to really ramp this storm from a long way out.

Anyway it appears the storm will be a thing of nothing & there warnings OTT

[johnholmes]

Or our weather predicting technology is just crap and totally outdated compared with theirs?

I think you have little idea about what is involved nor what data is available both at NOAA and UK Met.

Its top of the range in both centres-off topic I know team but this kind of unfounded comment needs answering before others not understanding start to follow?

I will post an update tomorrow, honest if you leave this comment in!

[Upgrade]

The Met Office have shocked me this week.

They are usually so accurate but for some reason, unknown to all of us, decided to really ramp this storm from a long way out.

Anyway it appears the storm will be a thing of nothing & there warnings OTT

Yes - it looks like scaremongering, back covering, and the danger is that people don't listen when it really matters.

We get warnings about everything these days - part of the health and safety culture i suppose.

I would rather they said nothing until they were certain and leave the speculation to amateurs.

[knightrider]

I think you have little idea about what is involved nor what data is available both at NOAA and UK Met.

Its top of the range in both centres-off topic I know team but this kind of unfounded comment needs answering before others not understanding start to follow?

I will post an update tomorrow, honest if you leave this comment in!

My question would be why where the October storms of 2000 and 2002 predicted so accurately well in advance whereas this storm is all will it wont it etc..? Forecasting is supposed to be more accurate and confident then ever before isn't it? Correct me if I'm wrong!

[Upgrade]

I have never known the post mortem of an forecasted event to start 3 days before the event is due to happen but here we are - if the Met Office stick their neck out to the extent they have, they can expect trouble when it doesnt materialise.

[chris78]

May I remind people this pottencial storm is now just over 48 hours away from making it's pressence felt on our shores so MetO have about 36 hours to pin this down or they'll be left feeling guilty that they didn't upgrade or finalise thier warnings!

may i remind you the last few models have it futher south...what do you want the meto to do.....they are warning people, they are saying its unpredictable.....aghhhh

[johnholmes]

My question would be why where the October storms of 2000 and 2002 predicted so accurately well in advance whereas this storm is all will it wont it etc..? Forecasting is supposed to be more accurate and confident then ever before isn't it? Correct me if I'm wrong!

I ask that you read and think about the pdf I posted, also to watch the video within that from the duty media forecaster, also if you can find it the video from the senior forecaster yesterday trying to explain the complexity.

Yes the level of accuracy is slowly, very slowly improving at all time scales and will continue to do so. But it will, in my view be VERY slow. The atmosphere is so extremely complex that no matter how powerful computers are made, problems such as this week will continue to occur as far ahead as I can see, the next decade

[knightrider]

I have never known the post mortem of an forecasted event to start 3 days before the event is due to happen but here we are - if the Met Office stick their neck out to the extent they have, they can expect trouble when it doesnt materialise.

Well I wouldn't say that, the general public are hardly going to lash them if they have made people prepared for the worst and nothing happens better that then they reassure people it'll miss us or pass without much trouble then we get bombed lmao.

[johnholmes]

It's swings and roundabouts at the moment they wont give a final verdict until at least another 24 hours.

something both I and Nick F keep telling this thread!

something both I and Nick F keep telling this thread!

the + side is that from tomorrow we can 'watch' the low develop, sat piccs and the latest Atlantic charts, and then watch it move, develop etc as it crosses the Atlantic. Seriously by no more than T+24 the outcome will become clearer, that was always going to be the case.

[knightrider]

Some of the latest models show it has shifted further south then it's initially predicted path and has actually lost some of it's venom with a lower preassure gradiant but alot of other models will say otherwise I'm sure!

[BleakMidwinter]

as with any of my posts its in English not techno speak!

For which, many thanks!!

Thanks generally, John, for another really clear explanation. That pdf has answered quite a few questions I couldn't get answers to, because I am not fluent in meteorologese... each time I read one of your clear thorough explanations, I understand what I'm looking at in the charts a tiny bit more, and it builds slowly...

BleakMidwinter

[knightrider]

Peter Cockroft just gave local London forecast and said we MIGHT get some very windy weather on Thursday night into Friday.

[Nick F]

Centre of the much talked of low later this week across southern counties of England 00z Friday on latest t+60 fax, real knife-edge stuff, just a jolt north by 100-200 miles makes all the difference:

[Bobby]

As they say, hindsight is always 20/20. It's easy to sit in your armchair with that 20/20 hindsight and bash the Met Office etc. But weather forecasting never has been easy and never will, especially in this country and in these situations.