Model Output Discussion - 1st - 7th January

[Cheshire Freeze]

A stark contrast to last year when we had a deepening vortex and cooling strat to finish off winter. It was a very late final warming last year.

[Frosty.]

Quite simply (while remembering the caveats I also posted), GFS and ECM are great charts tonight, for those wanting a pattern change and cold potential, that is abundantly clear.

Not wanting to pour cold water on the exciting ecm tonight but the latest meto update today which I believe had the updated Ecm 32 day long range data has not changed since yesterday, no hints of easterlies in there at all, just trending a bit colder in the north after mid month with wintry showers which suggests increasing polar maritime influence rather than continental arctic airmass.

[nick sussex]

yes plus we havent seen any modelling of the superwarming yet!

That could be waiting in the wings for Feb-

All I want to see is that phase 2 of the jet 180-228 a bit more amplified-

S

Oh no you mentioned the superwarming!

The stampede of netweather members to the local sledge, ear muff and scarf supply shop is likely to gather pace!

I have to say the ECM 168hrs is very good, if we can just back the pattern further west I'd have given the ECM a revised 8/10!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Not wanting to pour cold water on the exciting ecm tonight but the latest meto update today which I believe had the updated Ecm 32 day long range data has not changed since yesterday, no hints of easterlies in there at all, just trending a bit colder in the north after mid month with wintry showers which suggests increasing polar maritime influence rather than continental arctic airmass.

They would have been using the same data as yesterday as it's only run twice a week.

[Southender]

I'll take the bait....Could I ask what super warming is please?!

Edited January 7, 2012 by Shrimper

[Cloud 10]

Yes lets hope they take the scenic route and stop off at a diner for a long while!

I wonder if this new trend is in relation to the slowing of the zonal flow in relation to the recent strat warming, the last time we saw the output suddenly switch to an easterly was Feb 2009 but i think that was a SSW which reversed the flow.

Maybe a rinse and repeat of 2009 is on the cards.

2009>

2012 zonal winds going through the floor. (potentially!)

The CFS paints an interesting picture this evening later on,which involves sledges and ear-muffs.

Meteociel - Modèle Numérique américain CFS

[Jason T]

Well it was deleted earlier for being off topic,

IT WAS NOT,I guess some younger don't get it. The point was to create some light humour from the ecm output but mainly over all The punch line was eastern promise, Come on mods its just light mood humour,Better than the bickering. This is the best output all winter and we are in crunch time we could be looking at a jan 1986.

SL

[SMU]

the top chart- Zonal Wind 1HPA 60N is excellent as its going to batter the PV-

the superwarming could = Feb 86

S

[Cheshire Freeze]

I'll take the bait....Could I ask what super warming is please?!

Pop over to the stratosphere thread better than explaining on here

Last comment on the 12z models...they are very good when compared to what we have seen offered up in recent times. One niggle is that powerful piece of vortex around Greenland- we'd be in a much better position if that wasn't there because what we end up seeing is the Azores high pulling too far north in response to the Atlantic gradient (a +NAO if you like) This has the undesired effect of pulling the get further north and precluding enough amplification to send energy under the Scandi block. If we can rectify this in subsequent runs then it's very much game on this attempt- if not then we may need another bite to deliver the (cold and frozen) goods.

[Frosty.]

They would have been using the same data as yesterday as it's only run twice a week.

I thought they got the new ecm 32 day charts yesterday? anyway there is still a lot of uncertainty and I still can't get the numbingly boring gfs 00z out of my mind just yet.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I thought they got the new ecm 32 day charts yesterday? anyway there is still a lot of uncertainty and I still can't get the numbingly boring gfs 00z out of my mind just yet.

Monday and Thursday I believe, that's why the long range often updates with changes on the Friday

[legritter]

its been a painfull ride this winter ,but alas todays charts are alot firmer . this time tomorrow is critical , just need those highs same similar places or a little firmer north , im only going to keep a watchfull eye on GFS out to about 264 hrs , and ecm 216 . i know its been mentioned but IT DOES NOT TAKE MANY DAYS for deep cold to materialise . there could be a clash with air masses about 16/17th but thats a long way of ,we might have to wait till 20th , but if the highs dont become too flabby we could get a good deep easterly . its ironic im of down to hampshire next week 5 days ,no computer , so plenty of chart dreaming . weve all suffered , or most have lately so enjoy the charts , will be interesting met update monday no dought , regards legritter

[Jason M]

Perfect chart from the CFS. Only 888 hours away - what could possibly go wrong

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=888&mode=0&carte=0&run=10

Jason

[Frosty.]

Monday and Thursday I believe, that's why the long range often updates with changes on the Friday

Fair enough, so it's still too early to tell if tonight's ecm is a new trend or just a blip, is not the form horse still a return to cool zonal after the mild anticyclonic spell next week, actually I say anticyclonic but the meto today say it will be cloudy and breezy with occasional rain for most of next week and mild, not so anticyclonic then apart from towards southeast england where there will be a risk of fog and frost.

Edited January 7, 2012 by Frosty039

[bluearmy]

Maybe a rinse and repeat of 2009 is on the cards.

2009>

I was looking through the ncep charts from mid to late jan 2009 yesterday with this in mind. The gfs runs from around the 21/22 are spookily similar in suddenly changing to create trough disruption mid Atlantic and driving the ridge north. Chio, what date was the SSW that month?

[Yorkshiresnows]

Hi Folks,

Great output tonight and a step in the right direction.

Obviously caution needed, but clearly the warming in the stratosphere is going to further impact as time goes on. I simply will never buy that an arctic High and warming strat could be anything other than good for Europes chances of cold. As those of us watching over the past years have seen, although no guarantee, .... its a massive plus for cold (CC's analysis is frankly brilliant and informative).

G.P's forecast is looking good (nice to have Steve and G.P posting in the winter).

I want frost and snow to snuff out the blossom appearing on the trees (its just not right at this time of the year !!).

Y.S

P.S TEITS please bring out the Beast motif ...... if just for old times sake !

Edited January 7, 2012 by Yorkshiresnows

[weatherguy]

@Cloud10, does a negative value zonal wind mean a jet travelling east to west I take it?

[Cloud 10]

These are the ensembles from the ECM 00z run.

I expect to see a few changes when they update in about an hour!

[Craigers]

Perfect chart from the CFS. Only 888 hours away - what could possibly go wrong

http://www.meteociel...&carte=0&run=10

Jason

Whole of February in the freezer haha now thats mad!

[Mark Parsons]

Whole of February in the freezer haha now thats mad!

That is no more far from what might happen than say raging zonality and major flooding, this looks like the freeze up from 1986!!

[Cloud 10]

@Cloud10, does a negative value zonal wind mean a jet travelling east to west I take it?

The jet will not travel east to west,(although that would make things interesting!) but if the zonal mean winds do reverse,then this encourages high pressure in the arctic which in turn forces the jet to move south,which greatly increases the chances of cold weather effecting us,or other countries at similar latitudes.

I'll refer you to chionomaniac's excellent first post in the stratosphere thread which explains

it slightly better. :lol:

http://forum.netweat...ost__p__2148930

Edited January 7, 2012 by Cloud 10

[JP1972]

Flaming Nora, as things stand the Mods will need to introduce a 'cartwheel/triple somersault' smiley

And I'll tell you something else for free, if this change comes about as per GP's insistence then this bloke needs to be working for the Met Office!

Caution obvioulsy still needed but what a turnaround in the models and let's not forget, the past couple of years the best synoptics that have evolved and come to fruition have done so with great speed and fluidity and at relatively short notice.

Make you wonder if it's ever worth looking past 200-240 ever!

More runs and more fun please ...

[bluearmy]

the ecm ens mean charts are a mess tonight as there are obviously plenty of clusters which makes the mean pretty 'mean'ingless !! the spread on uppers by day 10 and also heights across the NH are as wide as i can ever recall. maybe a good time to stick with the op ??? anyway, across the NH there are three clusters at T240. one is the aleutian ridge, one is a se greeny ridge stretching se towards the uk and the third is a north sea ridge stretching back to eastern scandi. all in all, three decent clusters in a sea of uncertainty.

op and control in perfect harmony !!

Edited January 7, 2012 by bluearmy

[nick sussex]

The ECM ensemble maps are in:

http://www.ecmwf.int...t!2009112700!!/

The control run supports the operational, however there are varied solutions there with some bringing low pressure se towards the UK, if we don't get this Scandi block then at least the next best option is to get the jet tilted nw/se, to at least initially drive some energy into Europe and displace the high to the south.

The ECM short ensembles:

http://www.knmi.nl/e...M_06260_NWT.png

The operational has limited support but the cluster towards the end still shows a drop.

Bear in mind that its normally operational runs that lead the way with easterlies and not the other way round.

Edited January 7, 2012 by nick sussex

[Cheshire Freeze]

the ecm ens mean charts are a mess tonight as there are obviously plenty of clusters which makes the mean pretty 'mean'ingless !! the spread on uppers by day 10 and also heights across the NH are as wide as i can ever recall. maybe a good time to stick with the op ??? anyway, across the NH there are three clusters at T240. one is the aleutian ridge, one is a se greeny ridge stretching se towards the uk and the third is a north sea ridge stretching back to eastern scandi. all in all, three decent clusters in a sea of uncertainty.

op and control in perfect harmony !!

Certainly lower than many of the other ensembles but the fact that the op and control are together adds credence to the operational run. Seems to be an upper cluster and a lower cluster forming there.