Model Output Discussion - 1st - 7th January

[Frosty.]

Boom.

Trigger low and intense cold pool in waiting... what a chart.

Goodbye mild zonal

The Gem 00z was impressive for cold but the ecm tonight is in a different league, let's hope this trend continues

[Summer Sun]

216h

Almost perfect but not quite

Edited January 7, 2012 by Gavin D

[Strider]

One more smash at the PV through a warming event and that should tip us over the edge, the only thing that is drawing the 12z output back is that powerful piece of vortex around west Greenland

Off the charts

http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/temps.gif

[camiscool]

Hopefully if the trend continues into to 18z were onto something !

[Matty M]

Nearly almost, almost there folks, get your prozac, get a big supply of coffee and prepare for a few weeks of long nights.

[SMU]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

9/10

almost perfect- a tagde to much Azores NE pressure ridge- dont want it to flatten off to quick-

S

[Cheshire Freeze]

Off the charts

http://wekuw.met.fu-...cmwf1/temps.gif

If that warming was to come off the PV would be history with an outflow of cold air into the mid latitudes in tie for the end of Jan/Feb

[Summer Sun]

240h

Dry and cold under high pressure

Edited January 7, 2012 by Gavin D

[SMU]

9/10

Nearly there-

Need another low SE cutter for perfection

S

[camiscool]

is that a good chart gavin? sorry if im being stupid!

[TEITS]

I think we need to see the pattern edged west as the UK is often the last stop on the cold advection train from Russia and this is always the main hurdle to overcome. The 192hrs is okay but anyway this is a big change in the output and just goes to show how volatile the models are at the moment.

Difficult to have much faith in the model output despite enjoying todays new trend. I do like to be consistent with my posts despite my obvious biased towards E,lys lol. What does please me though is the potential E,ly is at +168. Nothing worse than watching an E,ly being modelled from +240 and then disappearing at +72 which has happened on a couple of occasions since I joined this forum.

I will have a litte ramp and say that although SSTS were mentioned yesterday but if we did have an E,ly with uppers between -10, -15C we would witness incredible convection. That is why warmer SSTS can be an advantage rather than a disadvantage.

[Frosty.]

240h

Yes it's not perfect, the high could do with being further west and north but after the winter we have endured so far it's light years better for long suffering cold/snow starved weather enthusiasts.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Difficult to have much faith in the model output despite enjoying todays new trend. I do like to be consistent with my posts despite my obvious biased towards E,lys lol. What does please me though is the potential E,ly is at +168. Nothing worse than watching an E,ly being modelled from +240 and then disappearing at +72 which has happened on a couple of occasions since I joined this forum.

I will have a litte ramp and say that although SSTS were mentioned yesterday but if we did have an E,ly with uppers between -10, -15C we would witness incredible convection. That is why warmer SSTS can be an advantage rather than a disadvantage.

Indeed TEITS, -10 uppers would surfice across a warmer than normal N sea....the convection potential would be incredible; I don't think it'd be reserved for eastern areas either given the potential instabiliity

This is an evolving situation though so it will most likely look different again tomorrow, added to this the mixing into the models of further warmings which will probably lead to further synoptic shifts.

Edited January 7, 2012 by CreweCold

[Great Plum]

Complete FI of course, but look at that glorious cold air on its way...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

[Liam J]

I can't quite believe my eyes, out of nowhere GFS & ECM have significant heights building to our north east out in FI. Caution is still needed at this range, however the models wouldn't just flip to that blocking scenario for no good reason after progging endless zonality for what seems like forever!

[Cheshire Freeze]

I can't quite believe my eyes, out of nowhere GFS & ECM have significant heights building to our north east out in FI. Caution is still needed at this range, however the models wouldn't just flip to that blocking scenario for no good reason after progging endless zonality for what seems like forever!

It's often said easterlys pop up out of nowhere seemingly

[Summer Sun]

is that a good chart gavin? sorry if im being stupid!

All depends what you want?

If its cold but dry weather then yes

If its snow then no its not quite perfect for snow see post 1306

[UV-RAY]

Now lets not all get too giddy, things can and will change over the next few days. The building blocks to cold are coming together, but we all know just how pear shaped things can go from here on.

Edited January 7, 2012 by Seven of Nine

[ChartViewer]

Difficult to have much faith in the model output despite enjoying todays new trend. I do like to be consistent with my posts despite my obvious biased towards E,lys lol. What does please me though is the potential E,ly is at +168. Nothing worse than watching an E,ly being modelled from +240 and then disappearing at +72 which has happened on a couple of occasions since I joined this forum.

I will have a litte ramp and say that although SSTS were mentioned yesterday but if we did have an E,ly with uppers between -10, -15C we would witness incredible convection. That is why warmer SSTS can be an advantage rather than a disadvantage.

Warmer SST's yes are favorable for Snow and do generate convection...But only if they are bringing a cold source of temps from Scandy/Siberia whick deliver for the UK.....At present temps over the Continent are poor.........Not sure id be that confident any Easterly would bring the rainbow to cold lovers.

Current muck over Sweden/Denmark is hugely mild

[nick sussex]

Difficult to have much faith in the model output despite enjoying todays new trend. I do like to be consistent with my posts despite my obvious biased towards E,lys lol. What does please me though is the potential E,ly is at +168. Nothing worse than watching an E,ly being modelled from +240 and then disappearing at +72 which has happened on a couple of occasions since I joined this forum.

I will have a litte ramp and say that although SSTS were mentioned yesterday but if we did have an E,ly with uppers between -10, -15C we would witness incredible convection. That is why warmer SSTS can be an advantage rather than a disadvantage.

I'd agree Dave thats happened in the past.

The Continent can cool dramatically and this isn't a problem as long as you get those very cold uppers for the North Sea convection machine to kick in.

Personally this ECM run is only getting a 7/10 from me, we've seen these set ups before with the cold coming to a stop in Holland. There are several things I don't like about the post 168hrs, the PV too far east, hints of energy spilling over the top and the Azores high trying to connect with the Russian high, not good as this will pull it south.

If the PV is going to sit there we need it further west and sending shortwaves under the block, I know I must sound hard to please but we've seen many of these set ups before.

Don't get me wrong it's great to see this new trend but we won't sustain an easterly with the PV that far east. Of course we've seen many changes in just the last few days, theres of course time for many more but for the timebeing although the ECM looks full of potential at 168hrs thats all it is for now.

[Summer Sun]

JMA joins in the cold fun at 192hrs

[Cheshire Freeze]

Warmer SST's yes are favorable for Snow and do generate convection...But only if they are bringing a cold source of temps from Scandy/Siberia whick deliver for the UK.....At present temps over the Continent are poor.........Not sure id be that confident any Easterly would bring the rainbow to cold lovers.

Current muck over Sweden/Denmark is hugely mild

With upper temps circa -20 over these areas I don't think this would be an issue. A continental climate can switch from warm to bitterly cold in the blink of an eye with the correct synoptics.

I'd agree Dave thats happened in the past.

The Continent can cool dramatically and this isn't a problem as long as you get those very cold uppers for the North Sea convection machine to kick in.

Personally this ECM run is only getting a 7/10 from me, we've seen these set ups before with the cold coming to a stop in Holland. There are several things I don't like about the post 168hrs, the PV too far east, hints of energy spilling over the top and the Azores high trying to connect with the Russian high, not good as this will pull it south.

If the PV is going to sit there we need it further west and sending shortwaves under the block, I know I must sound hard to please but we've seen many of these set ups before.

Don't get me wrong it's great to see this new trend but we won't sustain an easterly with the PV that far east. Of course we've seen many changes in just the last few days, theres of course time for many more but for the timebeing although the ECM looks full of potential at 168hrs thats all it is for now.

Yes that PV is a pain. I'm not convinced we'll see much more than some continental cold- cold days and cold nights this time around. Though the caveat to this is that any second bite of the cherry, given news from the strat thread, may have a lot more bite to it.

All things considered, I think in a week's time a PV a shaddow of its former self may be being modelled- how it affects here remains to be seen.

Edited January 7, 2012 by CreweCold

[Matty M]

Ive seen this situation suddenly accelerate in time stamps.

I would not be surprised if the event is pushed further into the reliable timeframe in future runs, that is

of course if this development is likely. Arctic Highs can advance so abruptly.

[summer blizzard]

Seemingly good model agreement then with the GEM0z, GFS12z, JMA12z and ECWMF12z all forecasting a Scandinavian High by day 8 though the westward extent is up for grabs.

I am actually a little skeptical of the ECWM12z outcome from day 7 onward as it seem to strengthen the Jet Stream (would attempt to sink the high) while the other models keep it weak.

[J10]

In my eyes there are 2 major issues here.

Firstly today's developments are some of the most rapid turnaround seen on this forum. In terms of pattern change I don't think you can get more positive developments.

Secondly, We have seen many potentially impressive Easterlys at closer range evaporate in front of our eyes, and there are many ways in which this can go wrong , particularly with no real blocking to the NW.

Saying that we have had good charts tonight.