Model Output Discussion - 1st - 7th January

[January Snowstorm]

Ye need worry little guys, major things going on in the strat thread.

Going by GP's post this morning, major happenings are around the corner.

That'll do for me

[Backtrack]

Ye need worry little guys, major things going on in the strat thread.

Going by GP's post this morning, major happenings are around the corner.

That'll do for me

Just been reading the Stratosphere thread. Looks like we may have a record warming event.

With the lag time and all, that spells to me record breaking February.

[Methuselah]

I'm inclined to agree with Ian.

The azores high remains (has done now for weeks) the key player and its as strong as ever in 10 days time.

I'm beginning to Nick S has handed out prozac in extra doses and folk are seeing all sorts of things in the charts when in all honesty things look brutal for cold

As am I, JS, as am I. We may well turn out to be quite wrong, but, as it stands, an Arctic anticyclone may be an enemy?

[nick sussex]

Just been reading the Stratosphere thread. Looks like we may have a record warming event.

With the lag time and all, that spells to me record breaking February.

You've got to be careful what you say in these threads, before you know it the Daily Express will be splashing more hysteria across its front page!

These things can take on a life of their own and snowball so even if we get a big warming event this doesn't mean that this will be translated into the perfect winter synoptics for the UK, of course it does help but we're still a way from that possible SSW.

If theres one thing I'd look at in tonights output its the tilt of the jet and orientation of the high building into the Arctic looking at comments from NOAA that eastern US trough is expected to de-amplify around day 7 because of this its essential we get the right orientation of that Arctic high so that it can place enough forcing on the pattern over Europe and carve some energy se towards Iberia.

A quick note regarding the less than exciting GFS 00hrs run, its regarded as an unlikely solution.

THE MEAN EASTERN TROUGH STARTS TO DEAMPLIFY AND MOVE EAST ON DAYS

6-7...WITH THE 0Z GFS STANDING OUT FROM THE PACK OF SOLUTIONS BY

MOVING THE TROUGH FASTER THAN THE LARGE MAJORITY OF ECMWF/GEFS

ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/RESULTANT MEANS AND 12Z FRI-00Z SAT OPERATIONAL

ECMWF.

Edited January 7, 2012 by nick sussex

[Backtrack]

You've got to be careful what you say in these threads, before you know it the Daily Express will be splashing more hysteria across its front page!

These things can take on a life of their own and snowball so even if we get a big warming event this doesn't mean that this will be translated into the perfect winter synoptics for the UK, of course it does help but we're still a way from that possible SSW.

If theres one things I'd look at in tonights output its the tilt of the jet and orientation of the high building into the Arctic looking at comments from NOAA that eastern US trough is expected to de-amplify around day 7 because of this its essential we get the right orientation of that Arctic high so that it can place enough forcing on the pattern over Europe and carve some energy se towards Iberia.

Oh yes, certainly, it was only a possibility, but if we do get that type of warming, it's only going to help aid the right synoptics eventually. We can start by getting rid of that PV over Greenland. Even if the warming does come off and doesn't promote cold for the UK, it's still pretty spectacular. I see Chino posted that the strat was a forecast 88C above the average for this time of year, which is amazing!

I'm a novice when it comes to the stratosphere though, so if the Daily Express want to take on quotes from me, I will sue the pants off of them.

The GFS is a start though Nick. Lock and load repeater of Polar Westerlies & North Westerlies in FI, which to me, seems entirely plausible before we see some real cold filtering down from the North.

Regardless of what happens guys, model watching just got interesting.

[Frosty.]

Just been reading the Stratosphere thread. Looks like we may have a record warming event.

With the lag time and all, that spells to me record breaking February.

Yes I think the Gem 00z and Gfs 06z are showing us the way forward with some much colder weather on the cards after next week, a bit of treading water before then but feb could be an awesome month for cold lovers as could the first half of march, indeed I would think we are going to have a cold start to spring this year, unlike last winter which fizzled out in January.

[Backtrack]

Yes I think the Gem 00z and Gfs 06z are showing us the way forward with some much colder weather on the cards after next week, a bit of treading water before then but feb could be an awesome month for cold lovers as could the first half of march, indeed I would think we are going to have a cold start to spring this year, unlike last winter which fizzled out in January.

Would be great if we can get some firm agreement from the ECM. It shouldn't be long before it falls in line.

Winter did fizzle out in January, but I think everyone got their share in Nov/Dec, so many were actually bored of the cold.

[Duane S.]

It is only a forecast but the gravity of the warming (no.3 of the winter) that is currently being forecast up at the top of the strat is incredible. Is it just me that finds the sort of temps being predicted mind boggling?? I doubt it will come off as exteme but anywhere even close to that will be interesting to say the least. The old caveat of it guarantees nothing for us applies as always but there would be some impressive weather through February (and I suspect well into March) in parts of the NH after that! Following on from two previous warmings this one would all but vapourise the vortex and you'd have to think any sot of longetivity to it would inhibit any meaningful reform of our our foe the vortex.

I get what Ian's saying about the Arctic High but worst case (and possibly at this stage most likely case) it will push the polar air into Eastern Europe and we will remain in the mild sector, but... the likelehood of us missing out consistently through the remainder of the winter (IF this warming does hit) has got to be low, not impossible but low. Great odds you offer by the way Ian!

[Frosty.]

Would be great if we can get some firm agreement from the ECM. It shouldn't be long before it falls in line.

Winter did fizzle out in January, but I think everyone got their share in Nov/Dec, so many were actually bored of the cold.

Nah I can never get enough cold, at the moment we can't get any cold but I do think we will get our fair share from late jan onwards, otherwise this winter can go in the wheelybin but I have faith in what the background changes are going to deliver.

[Backtrack]

Nah I can never get enough cold, at the moment we can't get any cold but I do think we will get our fair share from late jan onwards, otherwise this winter can go in the wheelybin but I have faith in what the background changes are going to deliver.

Well the signals are starting to show right now for a shot at some cold from 18th January ish. I think we'll see our fair share of snow before the winter is out. I fully expect the models to firm by by Monday in the sense that we will be in the firing line for some decent NW'erly shots.

I can't get enough of the cold either. Love it!

[Weather Boy]

Taken at face value, the models are a bit of a snooze-fest, with HP in the south feeding occasional fronts and showers to Scotland and N England whilst the south becomes increasingly settled and therefore (I would imagine) frost and maybe fog.

It seems to me that those on this forum who are advocating cold shots are looking at the charts' potential. Clearly, few charts (other than low res or less reliable offers) are showing anything exciting in the next 10 days or so. But there is potential. The Atlantic train is not shown as having the force that there was, and there seems scope for troughing on or near the UK from the north in the new future. However, the greater signals are from other sources, such as the strat forecast and other forecasts, many of which I'm not in a position to understand. However, it seems clear to me that these background signals are hard to ignore. Whilst it is possible that we will end up on the 'wrong' side of the cold systems, there is a pattern change coming which I think is hard to deny, although it may not result in a snowfest for the UK.

I do find it rather hard to take on board Ian's viewpoint, mainly because he simply produces total mild and/or zonal outlooks virtually regardless of the signals and it was exactly the same last year. It is therefore difficult, for those of us who are less well versed, to give much weight to his view, seeing as he says the same thing regardless. I don't see how anyone can take the view that in the medium/long term there is not a pattern change afoot.

This is all consistent with GP's view since November. GP is not infallible, as illustrated by his summer forecast, but to my mind the signals currently support him and he hasn't backed down. Don't forget he said a change mid or late Jan and if anything that looks likely to happen.

Edited January 7, 2012 by Weather Boy

[kev238]

To be fair to IB his analysis this winter has been spot on so far; it has been zonal, mild stuff so far.

It irks me a little that he is criticised for what he says whilst others who produce posts based on a chart 240 hours out, or constantly calling cold or signs cold could emerge, are lauded.

[Cheshire Freeze]

To be fair to IB his analysis this winter has been spot on so far; it has been zonal, mild stuff so far.

It irks me a little that he is criticised for what he says whilst others who produce posts based on a chart 240 hours out, or constantly calling cold or signs cold could emerge, are lauded.

It's the way he revels in it and seeks to wind members up that irks people

On to the models, from what I can gleen from the enembles of the 6z GFS, a period of cold zonality seems to be offered post day 7.

[Weather Boy]

But the point I'm making is that he always says exactly the same thing. In the UK, the most common wind direction is west or south-west, so someone who predicts that constantly is going to be right quite often.

I have no doubt he knows a lot more than me, no doubt at all, but it's hard to treat it as gospel when he is so dogmatic and says the same thing constantly. I'm not intending to disrespect his opinion or comments, but someone who varies their view on likely outcomes with model output and other signals is surely relatively more of interest.

Going back to the models, the main point I wanted to make was that it is clear not necessarily from the model output, but the other background signals, that a change is afoot. It is however, totally unclear what effect that will have on us here. The models merely show potential for change, not significant change in themselves.

[Craigers]

If the strat forecast happens then i would expect the models to dramatically change by end of next week. Lets hope we get blessed with nice charts this evening!

[Beasterly]

You can't make those assumptions - a Strat cooling WILL lead to zonality and low heights at Northern Latitudes but a warming event is not so clear cut and mid-latitudes on the other side of the globe can be the beneficeries.

misread the post, thanks for that CV.

Happy Birthday Ian Brown.

Edited January 7, 2012 by BreezeInTheEast

[Osbourne One-Nil]

You can't make those assumptions

Yes he can. You might consider he's wrong, but he can make those assumptions if you like.You do your thing regardless, after all.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Interesting news from over in the strat thread, that's for sure. Ian, a warming on that scale wouldn't discriminate against any part of the mid latitudes receiving an outpouring of cold, but I agree it's pot luck. With that much cold bottled up though are you willing to stake your house on the UK not receiving any of that cold?

[ChartViewer]

Uh, I believe you mean Strat. warming by the way.

Happy Birthday Ian Brown.

Strat cooling=Low heights over pole, normally west sw winds and milder

Strat warming = blocking in nh somewhere, colder

Also Happy Birthday Ian

Edited January 7, 2012 by ChartViewer

[snow drift]

You can't make those assumptions - a Strat cooling WILL lead to zonality and low heights at Northern Latitudes but a warming event is not so clear cut and mid-latitudes on the other side of the globe can be the beneficeries.

True but do you think it gives us more chance of cold? You know it does but you do not include it in your post and this is the fustration, little balance in what you chose to comment on.

Many returns.

[Jason M]

But the point I'm making is that he always says exactly the same thing. In the UK, the most common wind direction is west or south-west, so someone who predicts that constantly is going to be right quite often.

I have no doubt he knows a lot more than me, no doubt at all, but it's hard to treat it as gospel when he is so dogmatic and says the same thing constantly. I'm not intending to disrespect his opinion or comments, but someone who varies their view on likely outcomes with model output and other signals is surely relatively more of interest.

Going back to the models, the main point I wanted to make was that it is clear not necessarily from the model output, but the other background signals, that a change is afoot. It is however, totally unclear what effect that will have on us here. The models merely show potential for change, not significant change in themselves.

I think this is all a little unfair. Dont forget that by the end of this month (unless a change occurs), we will have had four consequtive Winter months without any notable cold weather ie Jan, Feb, Dec 2011 and Jan 2012 (and this ignores record breaking Spring / Autumn seasons). When was Ian supposed to call 'cold'? By the middle of last january we were in a similar pattern with High Pressure locked in to our south. It was clear to many on here at that point that it was going to be an uphill struggle for anything cold from that starting point. I recall Ian being just as excited as any of us last year when it was cold in Dec 2010. I hope mods allow this to stand as I think its an important point that everyone needs to remember

Looking through the ensembles earlier and seeing the GEM there are some very strange charts around today in la la land, so something may be afoot. In the meantime if people want to see a typical Bartlett set up look no further than the next six days or so with the high sat to our south / south east.

Jason

[ChartViewer]

True but do you think it gives us more chance of cold? You know it does but you do not include it in your post and this is the fustration, little balance in what you chose to comment on.

Many returns.

Sorry but I dont see your point. The models as yet only suggest POTENTIAL for cold...the High res part of all the models are showing a week of milder weather and any Strat warming is very much up in the air in terms of where this will go and actually hasnt really been reflected in any model ive seen other than a couple of half hearted attempts...1 by ECM 1 by GFS....So at moment it is as you were ....Zonality....next week will be mild...For mid Jan temps of 13-15 are very mild seeing as you would expect 6-8 generally and that isnt going to bring snow by the way.

Regards

Edited January 7, 2012 by ChartViewer

[cyclonic happiness]

I think this is all a little unfair. Dont forget that by the end of this month (unless a change occurs), we will have had four consequtive Winter months without any notable cold weather ie Jan, Feb, Dec 2011 and Jan 2012 (and this ignores record breaking Spring / Autumn seasons). When was Ian supposed to call 'cold'? By the middle of last january we were in a similar pattern with High Pressure locked in to our south. It was clear to many on here at that point that it was going to be an uphill struggle for anything cold from that starting point. I recall Ian being just as excited as any of us last year when it was cold in Dec 2010. I hope mods allow this to stand as I think its an important point that everyone needs to remember

Looking through the ensembles earlier and seeing the GEM there are some very strange charts around today in la la land, so something may be afoot. In the meantime if people want to see a typical Bartlett set up look no further than the next six days or so with the high sat to our south / south east.

Jason

I like how at the back end of the GEM run in the northern hemisphere mode a great big black blobs suddenly appears over the pole........maybe it's Nibiru?

I know that if the synoptics carry on as they are, it may as well be the harbinger of the end

[Frosty.]

Yes he can. You might consider he's wrong, but he can make those assumptions if you like.You do your thing regardless, after all.

He (IB) might occasionally mention the cold potential instead of constantly poo pooing of cold options which is pathetic in my opinion and i'm sure 99% of everyone else who views the model thread will agree with me..I don't expect this post to survive more than 1 minute

[phil nw.]

Let`s avoid getting into discussions about other posters likes and dislikes,biases or similar.It just clogs the thread up and doesn`t inform anyway about the subject matter.

By all means give your views of the output but let`s keep things friendly.

Thanks people.