Model Output Discussion - 1st - 7th January

[Jason M]

I like how at the back end of the GEM run in the northern hemisphere mode a great big black blobs suddenly appears over the pole........maybe it's Nibiru?

I know that if the synoptics carry on as they are, it may as well be the harbinger of the end

I dont think were at the end yet , although this pattern of high pressure to our south is just relentless. The GEM run was interesting though as i've seen some similar ensembles over recent days. If we do get an easterly I think it will be a brief but notable event. The jet is just too strong this year for anything long lasting IMO, although it would be surprising if it didnt weaken somewhat into next month.

Jason

[snow drift]

Sorry but I dont see your point. The models as yet only suggest POTENTIAL for cold...the High res part of all the models are showing a week of milder weather and any Strat warming is very much up in the air in terms of where this will go and actually hasnt really been reflected in any model ive seen other than a couple of half hearted attempts...1 by ECM 1 by GFS....So at moment it is as you were ....Zonality....next week will be mild...For mid Jan temps of 13-15 are very mild seeing as you would expect 6-8 generally and that isnt going to bring snow by the way.

Regards

You don't need to appologise for not seeing my point. You may need to for saying that 6-8 won't bring snow. This type of post is insulting to someones inteligence. To clarify my point, if we have a warming event it CAN lead to cold weather for us. It is an indicator and in time may well show its self in the model output. I just wanted this to be reconised by IB.

If you wish to discuss this futher you could PM me rather than clog up the thread.

Sorry Phil just seen your post. Delete if you wish.

Edited January 7, 2012 by snow drift

[syncmaster]

Hi, Newbie here absolutely facinating how these models are changing. bit of a dumb question but ive looked everywhere for the strat thread ! anybody give me a link plz

should have gone to to specsavers i know....

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Hi, Newbie here absolutely facinating how these models are changing. bit of a dumb question but ive looked everywhere for the strat thread ! anybody give me a link plz

should have gone to to specsavers i know....

Here you go

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/71340-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20112012/

[Matty M]

12z GFS has begun positively. I think in the words of Steve Murr, we could be in for a 'Stella' run.

[phil nw.]

Hi, Newbie here absolutely facinating how these models are changing. bit of a dumb question but ive looked everywhere for the strat thread ! anybody give me a link plz

should have gone to to specsavers i know....

Here you go.

http://forum.netweat...watch-20112012/

If you start on Page 1-Chiono gives some very good explanations and links relating to the Stratosphere.

Welcome and enjoy your time here.

[Craigers]

06z

12z

Is the Pv splitting and moving to Siberia???? !!

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

12z GFS has begun positively. I think in the words of Steve Murr, we could be in for a 'Stella' run.

Looks very similar to me so far. What makes you think its going to be better?

[kev238]

He (IB) might occasionally mention the cold potential instead of constantly poo pooing of cold options which is pathetic in my opinion and i'm sure 99% of everyone else who views the model thread will agree with me..I don't expect this post to survive more than 1 minute

To be blunt, up until this moment, there has been very little potential for anyone to call cold, so why should it be called? Jason M is right to point out that there have been 3 consecutive Winter months (Jan, Feb, December, 2011) where there has been very little opportunity to call cold. The first half of Jan is also the same. Many parts of England and Wales had a snowless 2011, barely frosts of notice so why call cold?

It is no coincidence that Scotland had its wettest year on record and parts of East Anglia and Midlands their 2nd driest ever! Zonal, northern jet!

p.s I love snow as much as anyone else!

Edited January 7, 2012 by kev238

[Cheshire Freeze]

Some changes on this run up to 144, don't know if they're positive necessarily though. NH pattern looks anything but flat, mind

Edited January 7, 2012 by CreweCold

[Jason M]

Some changes on this run up to 144, don't know if they're positive necessarily though. NH pattern looks anything but flat, mind

Close to a change at 150 hours http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0

I suspect the new high pressure cell emerging to the SW of the map will reinforce the declining Bartlett though. Fingers crossed.

Jason

[Cheshire Freeze]

Close to a change at 150 hours http://www.meteociel...6&code=0&mode=0

I suspect the new high pressure cell emerging to the SW of the map will reinforce the declining Bartlett though. Fingers crossed.

Jason

Yes, probably won't make it this time but at 150 hrs it's near enough text book birth of an easterly

[Matty M]

A very pleasant chart, a trend is forming.

[Jason T]

Well trolling through the post's lately it seems everything up in the air ,but all to play for. To me it is very hard at the moment to see where we will be by the 15th based on potential,But wow we have some potential to look at. I believe based on the current signals and confused output apattern change is very much looming.

Hopefully there will be an improvemet to a cool down on the 12z for our D-DAY.

I do like the op for russia though,If that was our ENS God knows what would happen in here.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Moskau_ens.png.

SL

[TonyH]

For my regionally targeted take on the coming weeks output see here:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/71920-wales-regional-weather-discussion/page__st__580

[Cheshire Freeze]

All that is needed past this point is height to lower over mainland Europe with the PV lobe around Greenland to retreat west slightly by 174 hrs the PV has split vertically with pressure being sucked toward the pole. Certainly a hemispheric pattern change on this run.

Edited January 7, 2012 by CreweCold

[Craigers]

06z

12z

Compare both of these charts and you can see the heights being forced northwards!

[phil nw.]

Signs by T180hrs that the PV is taking a hit.

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gfs/runs/gfsnh-2012010712-0-180.png?12

The first time this has been modelled in the high resolution part of the run.

[Craigers]

Look east people

Getting closer

Edited January 7, 2012 by Craigers

[Jason M]

Blimey, bit GEM like and at a similar timeframe....

http://www.meteociel...&ech=186&mode=0

At least its something interesting to get our teeth into. Heights declining to our south a last! No doubt FI will blow it all away as usual, but in truth that doesnt matter.

Jason

Edited January 7, 2012 by Jason M

[Cheshire Freeze]

Signs by T180hrs that the PV is taking a hit.

http://176.31.229.22...12-0-180.png?12

The first time this has been modelled in the high resolution part of the run.

Hmmm it's only one run but I suspect Chiono may have been right regarding the lower resolution not being able to model the pattern correctly

[ChartViewer]

Look east people

Getting closer

Those charts are T180 and dont really do anythin for me:-)

[Craigers]

Those charts are T180 and dont really do anythin for me:-)

Im talking about the potential.

Compare it to the 06z chart and you will see what i mean

[phil nw.]

Hmmm it's only one run but I suspect Chiono may have been right regarding the lower resolution not being able to model the pattern correctly

Indeed CC.It`s a sign that the effects of the warmings are filtering down into the modelling.

Things will still likely be chaotic in the low resolution part of the runs for a while with ups and downs,but i have seen enough by T180 to be convinced that things are now on the change.

Let`s see what the ECM makes of it all later.

[Matty M]

Yes useless looking beyond 180hrs at this point.

Great run, lets hope ECM can back it up.

ECM crucial as ever.

Winter 1947 here we come. (JOKE!)