Model Output Discussion - 1st - 7th January

[Matty M]

It must be noted that the 12z GEM is quite different to its 0z Model, it doesnt go out beyond 144hrs at 12z but you can note the differences.

12z @ 144hrs

0z (156hr chart - Equiv of 144hrs 12z)

[SMU]

ps sorry for the spelling- i cant edit @ work as it crunches it all up!

[FROZENFOOT]

what a great post from steve murr, that was just so easy to understand. thank you.

[Frosty.]

Poor old UKMO has been reduced to a sideshow as any possible changes to the vortex are not likely to show by T144.

Just to ensure he`s not left out here is his last chart.

http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?07-17

as expected the UK still under the influence of the mild Euro High at that stage.

Yes phil the ukmo is almost redundant (until monday) as we all know the high will be bossing our weather out to at least T+168 hours with the potential for a cold blast well over a week away but the general trend from the models today is for a cold spell on the way after mid month with hopefully a lot more to follow, i'm not sure whether the Jan CET will be dragged below average though unless we get a really cold spell from mid jan onwards as the first half of this month is likely to be above the seasonal average.

Edited January 7, 2012 by Frosty039

[Matty M]

I can't see too much wrong with the T120hr chart from ECM

jet diving south

[Cheshire Freeze]

I can't see too much wrong with the T120hr chart from ECM

jet diving south

Conditions very slightly less favourable upstream compared to GFS on the NH chart, also vortex at the pole very slightly more intense

[weatherguy]

Thanks steve, extremely informative and helpful post!

[January Snowstorm]

ECM says do the lotto and do it fast!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

ECM 144 looks good, all depends on whether the high can get sucked far enough north now. If not then we reset. Important 168 coming up

At 144 the ECM looks even more amplified Pacific side than the GFS

Edited January 7, 2012 by CreweCold

[SMU]

BOOM

[cooling climate]

Compared to all the charts we have had to endure all winter at T+180 I would gladly take this knowing that a trend is set.

Quite agree. I mentioned the other day that we may well see a beasterly before the month is out and also in the strat thread. This I think is very plausable especially when the forcast major warming propagates downward although I am not sure whether we will see a immediate effect from this because of the subsequent warming before hand or as GP mentioned we may still have to allow a 2 or 3 week time lag. Because of this I am not sure whether the 12z GFS run is being a little to progressive with the synoptics shown but I am quite sure if we do not see the beast on the first shot we will on the second.

If we are in the sweetpot as far as this warming is concerned then we could very well be looking at much colder H 850 temps than we have seen in the last couple of years. Also agree that if the MMW varifies then as you say we are likely to see a major northern hemisphere pattern change through the rest of the winter and on into spring.

Edited January 7, 2012 by Osbourne One-Nil
Because it takes up less space and makes it easier to read. Please read your PMs!

[nick sussex]

OMG!!!

http://www.meteociel...map=1&archive=0

:w00t: :w00t: :w00t:

Best chart of the winter!

Let's hope the 192hrs doesn't clutch defeat from the jaws of victory!

Edited January 7, 2012 by nick sussex

[SMU]

The ECM at 168 has a chilly continental flow that COULD be very dynamic at 192-

Thats an AMAZING 12 hour model turnaround if its anything close-

144 is where its at today-

S

[Cheshire Freeze]

168 ECM is even better than the GFS at the same timeframe for cold prospects it appears; as Steve mentioned, already under a continental flow.

[January Snowstorm]

The ECM at 168 has a chilly continental flow that COULD be very dynamic at 192-

Thats an AMAZING 12 hour model turnaround if its anything close-

144 is where its at today-

S

Indeed Steve, though you have to admit we have seen the models do this before

Goes to show how fickle they are even when they do agree

From the jaws of defeat, someone's just nuked the azores high :lol:

[TEITS]

My first opportunity to see the 12Zs after visiting my parents and my word much has changed since this mornings 0Z GEM.

Much can go wrong and through experience I never get excited at the prospect of an E,ly until its within +72. However like I said this morning I wouldn't be against it.

Excellent post by Steve M by the way.

[swilliam]

Poor old UKMO has been reduced to a sideshow as any possible changes to the vortex are not likely to show by T144.

Just to ensure he`s not left out here is his last chart.

http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?07-17

as expected the UK still under the influence of the mild Euro High at that stage.

No doubt it will end up as the party pooper nearer the time

[Isolated Frost]

Fair to say, ECM 168 opens the floodgate for that high to move further on, let the continental floodgates... couple this with the GFS output and strat outlook, it's fair to say, it's turning from potential to the real thing... slowly but surely.

192, 216 should be interesting on the ECM

[SMU]

TRIGGER LOW

NEARLY NEARLY- not quite as amplified as PTB 8

S

[January Snowstorm]

Though 192 hrs will never happen like projected, it's close to the holy grail!!

[Isolated Frost]

Boom.

Trigger low and intense cold pool in waiting... what a chart.

[Cheshire Freeze]

One more smash at the PV through a warming event and that should tip us over the edge, the only thing that is drawing the 12z output back is that powerful piece of vortex around west Greenland

Edited January 7, 2012 by CreweCold

[nick sussex]

I think we need to see the pattern edged west as the UK is often the last stop on the cold advection train from Russia and this is always the main hurdle to overcome. The 192hrs is okay but anyway this is a big change in the output and just goes to show how volatile the models are at the moment.

[phil nw.]

The ECM at 168 has a chilly continental flow that COULD be very dynamic at 192-

Thats an AMAZING 12 hour model turnaround if its anything close-

144 is where its at today-

S

Yes quite a move forward today Steve.The thing is both GFS and ECM show similar vortex disruption at T168. .

Of course things can still change-how often has that happened?-at this range and John H was right in pointing this out earlier.

I must say though this is what many of us were waiting for in view of the background data that`s been building and it appears that the PV is modelled to finally reach it`s tipping point at the 500hPa level.

Edited January 7, 2012 by phil n.warks.

[ITSY]

That +192 chart is, IMO, one of the best we've seen this winter - not there yet, but my word the potential is there by the bucket load!