Model Output Discussion - 1st - 7th January

[Snowy Easterly]

deep cold goes into eastern europe and then greece as usual

[Jason M]

lol, anyone planning on going to Libya or Tunisia for a little Winter sun?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=348&mode=2

Edited January 7, 2012 by Jason M

[phil nw.]

Im talking about the potential.

Compare it to the 06z chart and you will see what i mean

You get a better perspective on the Northern hemi view.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Indeed CC.It`s a sign that the effects of the warmings are filtering down into the modelling.

Things will still likely be chaotic in the low resolution part of the runs for a while with ups and downs,but i have seen enough by T180 to be convinced that things are now on the change.

Let`s see what the ECM makes of it all later.

All said and done, that is some deep, brutal cold on the move. It's only the deep PV over Greenland that prevents the easterly this time....if it was ANY less intense it would have been game on for this run.

Edited January 7, 2012 by CreweCold

[ChartViewer]

Im talking about the potential.

Compare it to the 06z chart and you will see what i mean

Its ok i understand what you mean!....I just dont like colder weather!...But yes those charts are prob best of Winter so far for coldies x

[chionomaniac]

Those charts are T180 and dont really do anythin for me:-)

Compared to all the charts we have had to endure all winter at T+180 I would gladly take this knowing that a trend is set.

[Zenarcher]

I know its NOGAPS but on its 12z run its showing something similar to the GFS,

Lets hope the ECM shows something like this later.

[Craigers]

Even in FI it still shows potential, ensembles will be very interesting indeed! IF Ecm follows this trend then id be very happy indeed

[Cheshire Freeze]

I don't think many of the ensembles will show this idea yet Maybe the 18z will shed more light?

[Zakos]

VERY close to a very potent easterly on that run... Quite a different evolution to the 06z. I hope its still there on the 18z. Im going to be watching that artic high like a hawk over the next week.

[ChartViewer]

Compared to all the charts we have had to endure all winter at T+180 I would gladly take this knowing that a trend is set.

Accepted CH....Ill be very interesteed on the ECM tonight to see what trend that takes..........Not a trend i like today as you know....But i can see what the 12z is starting to show but remember this is ONLY 1 run.....but with background signals showing Strat warming then i accept models will pick this up...How much cold you can achieve is another matter seeing we are now on 7th Jan and the charts shown are 15th onwards....

Regards

[Cheshire Freeze]

The key is getting that Azores high sucked up towards the pole, if this happens an easterly becomes more likelyas it provides a break to the zonal flow and the WAA required to build the high to the NE/E

[Jason M]

I don't think many of the ensembles will show this idea yet Maybe the 18z will shed more light?

This run isnt without support. GEM was similar this morning.

Loving the 1050 azures high at the end of FI

[davacr123]

Will be very interesting if it comes through had enough of dull and damp

[Bristawl Si]

How much cold you can achieve is another matter seeing we are now on 7th Jan and the charts shown are 15th onwards....

Regards

If it went cold to v cold from, say, 17th/18th Jan then i'd say about 4 weeks worth would be POSSIBLE. I stress the "possible".

Even down these parts we've had v cold temps until mid-Feb...and i AM discounting '47, by the way (which was truly exceptional).

[chionomaniac]

Accepted CH....Ill be very interesteed on the ECM tonight to see what trend that takes..........Not a trend i like today as you know....But i can see what the 12z is starting to show but remember this is ONLY 1 run.....but with background signals showing Strat warming then i accept models will pick this up...How much cold you can achieve is another matter seeing we are now on 7th Jan and the charts shown are 15th onwards....

Regards

It's very difficult knowing where any block will set up - and also when. We know that there is a lot of disruption aloft, some that has already occurred and a lot more that is forecast to occur. The split vortex already forecast is unusual in the fact that the split is directly north of us. In these cases we may miss out on any cold heading south due to poor positioning. However, it is too early to say whether blocking will set up here - all I look for at this time frame is blocking potential and cold heading south. If this continues for many weeks as is possible following a major strat warming then it will be only a matter of time before the UK is in the firing line.

[Jason M]

I know its NOGAPS but on its 12z run its showing something similar to the GFS,

Lets hope the ECM shows something like this later.

Well the plot thickens! I have a feeling we might be hearing from Steve Murr this evening. Important not to get carried away though

All hail the mighty GEM

Jason

[chionomaniac]

Well the plot thickens! I have a feeling we might be hearing from Steve Murr this evening. Important not to get carried away though

All hail the mighty GEM

Jason

We just need a trigger low.

[Matty M]

The GFS control aint far away from the OP.

interesting times.

[Craigers]

Nice

[Cheese Rice]

The GFS 12z is a really exciting run, the prospects are definitely there for severe cold to affect Northern and Eastern Europe with the potential for it to be advocated towards UK.

Edited January 7, 2012 by Cheese Rice

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Ye after seemingly an eternity of NAO+ ballbusting synoptics we are finally seeng the first signs that the models have been fed a SSW evening meal.

Whilst the GFS 12z op run comes agonizingly close to a serious freeze lets not get ahead of ourselves here,that godforsaken Azores high needs to vacate what has been its retirement home since Nov and that jet across the Atlantic has got to dig SE as opposed to West to East as it has done all winter.

Anyway,all conjecture for now but the first time this 'winter' i genuinely feel changes are afoot.

[ChartViewer]

Nice

Cherrypicking ensembles :smilz38:

[phil nw.]

The fact that the PV is looking vunerable to splitting does not automatically mean we go to straight to a cold evolution,however the gaps created will allow Arctic blocking to develop more and more.

We then need some luck so that we end up on the cold side of any troughing which brings the arctic air south.This is the unknown piece of the jigsaw and will not be modelled accurately for some days yet.

Just a heads up to any newer model watchers,particularly as these details are still beyond the reliable timeframe yet.

Many ups and downs to come,but also a very interesting period watching how the Strato. behaviour relates to our 500hPa patterns.

Edited January 7, 2012 by phil n.warks.

[Matty M]

folks ignore the ensembles! They are useless, you need the OP or Control runs, the Ensembles just dont have the resolution.

They are and have been very poor at picking up trends. They are preset zonal!