Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - 2012

[Jane Louise]

Can't be any worse then 2011

You're right there Aaron , also not forgetting the 5 years before that and all!!

[Chris K]

Although the risk is relatively low by sounds of it, at least there's something a teeny bit exciting to look out for around Bristol tomorrow...

If it ends up just being a cloud scenery spectacle...at least it's a good view overlooking the Severn Estuary on my way home in the afternoon as I head North into S Gloucestershire.

[Purplepixii]

BBC south just said thundery, haily, possibly snowy down here tomorrow but I won't hold my breath as the main forecaster after her didn't really hint at the same thing

[Coast]

OK, here we go for some possible convective weather today!

Storm Forecast

Valid: Thu 26 Jan 2012 06:00 to Fri 27 Jan 2012 06:00 UTC

Issued: Thu 26 Jan 2012 05:30

Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

Low geopotential over eastern Europe and another trough that slowly crosses he British Isles are divided by a sharpenin ridge over the central portions of Europe. At the southern periphery of the eastern trough, an intense vortex affects the east Mediterranean region.

DISCUSSION

British Isles and surroundings

Near the base of the western trough, numerous showers and thunderstorms have built in the morning hours that will likely go on during the period. However, chances of thunderstorms are forecast to decrease gradually as the low-level moisture decreases over the British Isles. Given about 10 m/s 0-1km vertical wind shear, a brief tornado is not ruled out, but the threat is too marginal to issue a level 1.

Peak time looks to be in the next few hours with a distinct possibility for the lovely Jane Louise!!!

[Coast]

Currently:

[Lynxus]

Some beefy looking clouds around here already this morning. Im only on this page today because they looked "stormy" . Never know. May end up getting a pleasant surprise.

[Liam J]

Nothing of interest just yet on the radar images, the day is still young with lots of potential around today for some active cells.

[Jane Louise]

And here comes the rain, after having a sunny morning, a couple of anvils formed. It's also very windy and the temps have dropped.It's not very nice out there at all. Still waiting for my hail thunder later Lol

[Stuart]

And here comes the rain, after having a sunny morning, a couple of anvils formed. It's also very windy and the temps have dropped.It's not very nice out there at all. Still waiting for my hail thunder later Lol

good luck on your 1st storm of the year

[Jane Louise]

good luck on your 1st storm of the year

Say no more Stu :winky: but thanks anyway!

[Jane Louise]

Ahh, we are back to blue skies and sunshine now that the rainband has cleared. One can only hope for a surprise later on lol. But the conditions certainly look right! Oooh my first storm eh! in all honesty I doubt it though!

[Coast]

Ahh, we are back to blue skies and sunshine now that the rainband has cleared.

Same here Jane, chances are receding now I think.

[Jane Louise]

Same here Jane, chances are receding now I think.

Oh well :lol: , maybe later on in the year something'll turn up.

[Jane Louise]

Hmmm, Staverton airport has mentioned this for this afternoon:

heavy rain showers and thunderstorm small hail or snow pellets

only a 30% chance though lol.

[Liam J]

Some nice anvils passing here over the Irish Sea, still pretty shallow atm.

[Terminal Moraine]

A couple of hail showers this morning from fairly modest looking cumulus so the potential is there for something more significant if any decent sized Cbs develop.

At the moment the focus of activity seems to be over south west England and in the north west with something of a dry gap between the two.

[Liam J]

Significant vertical vorticity being modelled this evening over NW England associated with a developing trough feature.

[Coast]

Significant vertical vorticity being modelled this evening over NW England associated with a developing trough feature.

Ha!!! just been looking at that from another source!!

[Andy Bown]

Is there a small LOW over the Southern half of Wales?

There is certainly a distinct circle of heavy showers moving steadily East.

[Chris K]

Just had a hefty hail shower cross over whilst driving home. Was not fun to drive through!

And it looks like 'im directly in line for the next 2 batches heading across the bristol channel!

Edited January 26, 2012 by Bugganuts

[Liam J]

Ha!!! just been looking at that from another source!!

Could be interesting this evening through this neck of the woods? Latest PPN radar showing an organised trough circulation taking shape over N England wrapping round over Scotland.

Some deep cumulus building, very dark at the base.

Edited January 26, 2012 by Liam J

[MP-R]

Completely clear and benign here but blitzortung has picked up some strikes over South Wales, the Channel and north Devon.

[DeepSnow]

I can confirm those strikes, had 3 rumbles of thunder here, the last one being loud! It was nice while it lasted!!

[Coast]

Completely clear and benign here but blitzortung has picked up some strikes over South Wales, the Channel and north Devon.

Must be wayyy out in the Channel Michael, as we have nothing but clear skies and some cloud formations right down to my South.

[MP-R]

Must be wayyy out in the Channel Michael, as we have nothing but clear skies and some cloud formations right down to my South.

Sorry, should have specified 'Bristol Channel' haha. Certainly nothing in the English Channel.

Also, I have noticed on zooming in on the raintoday radar that there are now purple and white echoes within the showers, is that new or have I just been blind to them before?