Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - 2012

[Raidan]

Some heavy showers here today,some cb's during the sunny spell but nothing came of it,raining again now

[Chris K]

Yep, had a couple of hail showers and a rumble this afternoon/evening but didn't see any lightning. A bit more rain looks like its about to hit here before the trough passes us, then (for here) I think that's any interesting weather over for the day. Hopefully looking forward to a year with at least a few decent thunderstorms in our area for a change!

[Coast]

Sorry, should have specified 'Bristol Channel' haha. Certainly nothing in the English Channel.

It's me living where I do!

[Cirrusly Snowy]

Sorry, should have specified 'Bristol Channel' haha. Certainly nothing in the English Channel.

Also, I have noticed on zooming in on the raintoday radar that there are now purple and white echoes within the showers, is that new or have I just been blind to them before?

Noticed that too, it may possibly be a new feature to make the precipitation rate stand out a little more.

[Midlands Ice Age]

Noticed that too, it may possibly be a new feature to make the precipitation rate stand out a little more.

Guys,

This is the organised belt of showers I noticed develop over S Ireland this morning and posted on the MO thread at about 10:00 this morning.

If it develops a little bit more it could become a shortwave much further south than modelled so far and hence affect the whole of the model developnent for the next few days. Could it become the TRIGGER low which is being hunted by the coldies on the model thread?.

We have had a really large anvil pass over Birmingham this pm

MIA

[Tattooed Fox]

Jack FM said at 5 o'clock the temperature was going to be 5 degrees tonight. Temperature has now dropped to Zero within an hour and we are having a heavy sleet shower. Where ever are they getting their info from.

[Jane Louise]

Well, story of my life! nowt happened here again (what a suprise) I even missed out on the snow early evening while some in Gloucestershire did well grrrr. Oh well, never mind.

Anyway on to tomorrows forecast from Estofex:

Valid: Fri 27 Jan 2012 06:00 to Sat 28 Jan 2012 06:00 UTC

Issued: Thu 26 Jan 2012 19:42

Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A deep cyclonic vortex over Scotland moves atop the North Sea with a slow-down in forward speed. At the same time, further amplification of the trough occurs towards France. Also, geopotential heights start to decrease over N-Algeria. A strengthening high pressure area over Russia precludes DMC over E/NE Europe.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms occur over NW-Europe with sleet and strong wind gust the main risk. The activity gradually diminishes after sunset.

Also, scattered thunderstorms are forecast over the SW-Mediterranean. Very slow storm motion may yield an augmented heavy rainfall risk. Otherwise no severe risk is anticipated. Peak thunderstorm activity will occur offshore.

http://www.estofex.org/

[jamesbhx]

There were a few flashes and a downpour from a tiny cell just south of Gatwick at around 1930 this evening. It dissapeared almost as quickly as it developed!

[Liam J]

Had some very heavy hail showers earlier as a cluster of cells moved in from the Irish Sea with the associated trough feature that moved east.

Wish I'd had my camera with me whilst I nipped into town this afternoon, I could have caught a few impressive shots of some deep anvils looking very dramatic.

[Coast]

BBC South East Today 6.30 weather forecast talked of hail showers and possible thunder for us this morning, ESTOFEX going with:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Fri 27 Jan 2012 06:00 to Sat 28 Jan 2012 06:00 UTC

Issued: Thu 26 Jan 2012 19:42

Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A deep cyclonic vortex over Scotland moves atop the North Sea with a slow-down in forward speed. At the same time, further amplification of the trough occurs towards France. Also, geopotential heights start to decrease over N-Algeria. A strengthening high pressure area over Russia precludes DMC over E/NE Europe.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms occur over NW-Europe with sleet and strong wind gust the main risk. The activity gradually diminishes after sunset.

Also, scattered thunderstorms are forecast over the SW-Mediterranean. Very slow storm motion may yield an augmented heavy rainfall risk. Otherwise no severe risk is anticipated. Peak thunderstorm activity will occur offshore.

Little bit of CAPE in The Channel (English!)

Already a bit of that upper level shear going on over the Channel looking down through the Downs from Mid Sussex:

[Nick F]

Some stunning cloudscapes way to the SE of London looking from the 10th floor of my office in Hounslow, Big Anvil with the sun rising behind it. Unfortunately cannot load photos right now.

[Raidan]

Anvil spotted at 10.30 this morning and another half hour ago,some interesting cloud formations but starting to cloud over now.

[Raidan]

Just had a heavy hail shower but no thunder,sunny spells have returned.

[Chris K]

Friend reported thunder down in Bath. Showers are beginning to crop up more on the radar. They seem to intensify after they pass me though in these sort of alignments.

[GreyCrag]

Thunder with hail here around 12.45pm, hail was substantial enough to leave a 2mm covering across all the surfaces and the higher peaks now completely covered in a mixture of granules and snow from passing showers.

[Raidan]

Another heavy shower here but again no thunder,sferics on ATD but nothing here.

[chionomaniac]

Went for a walk on the Downs this morning and spotted a wonderful line of anvils over the Channel. Just wished that I could be under them.

[Coast]

Went for a walk on the Downs this morning and spotted a wonderful line of anvils over the Channel. Just wished that I could be under them.

I can just see you on the peak there Chiono, by the Jack and Jill windmills!!!

[Liam J]

Thanks for the reports guys, nice to hear some of you are having lively showers with thundery activity.

Things are clearing up here from the north after a day of rain, hail and wet snow showers. Could be nasty if it all freezes later.

[jpwild]

Very intense wintrhy shower and just now a rumble of thunder

[GreyCrag]

holy cow that was a close lightning strike, less than a half second away.

[jpwild]

Yeah, just saw lightening flash through my window. Good start to the cold spell

[Raidan]

Never seen that before but can see 2 Anvils one quite big and the other one smaller next to each other,looks like scales.

[matty40s]

suprised this squall line isn't showing up brighter, just crossing the Trent at Shardlow now, very intense with 1/2 inch of hail so far

[GreyCrag]

BBC2 traffic report just now reporting many roads affected by the weather. Obviously the snake pass, M6, one near chapel-en-le-frith (not the A6 but likely the going across Rushup edge) aswell as hail storms in Oxford and the Midlands making driving difficult.