Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - 2012

[Raidan]

A few cb's popping up now

[Alex95]

Torrential downpour at 2pm, and I can still see some very nice cumulonimbus clouds to my SE. Probably less showers than I expected though, normally the Lake District gets almost continuous rain on showery days.

[Harry]

Hiiiii!!! Have been away from here for so long after what has been a super anti-cyclonic winter I felt compelled to come on and cheer about seeing my first Cu in what feels like months and months!

Am feeling exceptionally upbeat about the coming year and convection, not sure why just a feeling in the waters!

The weather front has been through and brought nothing more than the finest drizzle you can imagine and an afternoon of beautiful sunshine, sitting here with the balcony door open in my t-shirt and shorts - amazing that we have a watch out for snow in the next 36 hours.

Was great seeing the radar earlier and a rash of convection across the UK (albeit a few hundred miles from here).

Hope to be spending lots of time on here in the coming months and finally getting to put up some UK lightning shots from my camera, which I bought in March 2010 and has had ZERO UK lightning flashes through its lense!

Hope everyone is well btw

Edited March 3, 2012 by Harry

[Lauren]

Definitely a lot of convection in the air yesterday. Haven't seen much of this heavy rain were supposed to be having today.

[Coast]

ESTOFEX again the only dedicated storm site to report this morning:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Sun 04 Mar 2012 06:00 to Mon 05 Mar 2012 06:00 UTC

Issued: Sat 03 Mar 2012 16:57

Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

No threat levels were issued.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

A low pressure system over Iceland shifts eastwards and the southern part of the upper trough affects the British Isles and the North Sea region on Sunday. In the wake of the cold front, some isolated thunder is possible. The trough is forecast to dig further southwards, leading to a cut-off low over Benelux on Monday.

So here's a few more charts to compare:

Something seems to raise its head in my area later this afternoon, but I'm not expecting much except a lot of rain - which of course we do need.

[Coast]

Might be worth doing some practice for the real season on those French imports with the new NW radar and other detectors today, according to ESTOFEX:

Doesn't look like we will get it, but worth monitoring if nothing else.

[Nick F]

00z GFS looked interesting this coming weekend, with an unstable and potentially thundery flow coming up from France as Atlantic trough slows and stalls across the E Atlantic/Biscay:

Saturday:

Sunday:

Long-way off and ECM doesn't entertain the idea, being more progressive with the trough by pushing it into mainland Europe. So probably won't come of then. Nice to see though.

[dave48]

Current (12z) output from the GFS wrt next weekend's potential looks similar to April 14/15th, 2009. And if this were April, I'd say progged MLCAPE values would be closer to, or in excess of, 1000j/kg on current model output. The UKMO-GM remains reluctant to eject the upper low sufficiently south at 144 hrs out, with the ridge to the east "falling flat".

A modest "plume" in the middle of March. Not bad at all.

I was looking at some photos I took of a thunderstorm moving towards Bristol on April 15th 2009 just yesterday. It went right past where I was living in Bath, building on the outflow regions as it went.

Will be watching how this develops closely, still a little early on to be to optimistic but it could be the first thundery event proper of the year.

[Coast]

Hmmm, there only seems to be the slightest whisper of something at the weekend and it's not one I'm currently counting on giving us anything of note:

[Nick F]

Yep, Nern france hogging all the CAPE on Saturday, sound familiar?

[Robbie Garrett]

Well, let's put it this way guys... it will happen as I am working the Weekend, what generally happens when I am working weekends is a crack off weather event. FML!!

[Coast]

Yep, Nern france hogging all the CAPE on Saturday, sound familiar?

Unfortunately so.... Is it because we wanted to retain the veto on more European integration and they've got the hump with us, or is it just going to be another year of our continental friends stealing our storms like the milk off a neighbours doorstep?????

[Chris K]

All i'm asking for is another May 9th 2008 at some point and I'll be happy. Fronts slowly moving in from the SW meeting hot humid air coming in from the SE enhanced thundery activity. If I remember rightly, we had a few hours non stop light show in the Bristol area that night. Best storm I've personally seen yet. Hoping 2012 will deliver the goods as the past couple of years have been poor (in my opinion). We need a thundery low move up instead of the westerly thundery showers scenario.

I also hope this isn't another year where everything exciting suddenly gets pushed too far east, or stay across the channel refusing to dip its toes in the water.

Edited March 12, 2012 by Bugganuts

[Weather Wizard]

Accoring to Matt Hugo the latest long range ECM forecast is for:

"...Definite trend & signal for a trend towards a weak El Nino as well as we progress through summer . Some signs are for unsettled but warm"

That sounds very good for T-storms

[Robbie Garrett]

Accoring to Matt Hugo the latest long range ECM forecast is for:

"...Definite trend & signal for a trend towards a weak El Nino as well as we progress through summer . Some signs are for unsettled but warm"

That sounds very good for T-storms

I think personally, it will be very similar to 2010/2011.... with Thunderstorms being a shortfall, unless that Azores high can pish off!

[MP-R]

All i'm asking for is another May 9th 2008 at some point and I'll be happy. Fronts slowly moving in from the SW meeting hot humid air coming in from the SE enhanced thundery activity. If I remember rightly, we had a few hours non stop light show in the Bristol area that night. Best storm I've personally seen yet. Hoping 2012 will deliver the goods as the past couple of years have been poor (in my opinion). We need a thundery low move up instead of the westerly thundery showers scenario.

I also hope this isn't another year where everything exciting suddenly gets pushed too far east, or stay across the channel refusing to dip its toes in the water.

What an event that was, especially after a fairly dull and ordinary day. 9th May 2008 and 25th June 2009 both saw cases of storms tracking one side of me giving fantastic displays of lightning pretty much every few seconds - no rain fell on either of them here. All the storms since have been wet ones with little in the way of lightning displays.

[Chris K]

What an event that was, especially after a fairly dull and ordinary day. 9th May 2008 and 25th June 2009 both saw cases of storms tracking one side of me giving fantastic displays of lightning pretty much every few seconds - no rain fell on either of them here. All the storms since have been wet ones with little in the way of lightning displays.

I remember being amazed looking up seeing the sky turn so dark so quickly. Where i live, the storm produced about 15 minutes of ridiculously heavy rain, then it suddenly stopped and was basically an electrical storm for the next couple hours. Was surreal to experience but also a tad creepy at the time

[Coast]

Still a way out but the Continent hogging the CAPE over the weekend, although something slightly interesting cropped up over Ireland on the overnight runs:

Again, not something to get excited currently

[dave48]

Here is a video (compliation of strikes) I took from bristol of the 9th May 2008 storm, The best storm I have seen in the last five years.

I remember the june 25th 2009 too, It was much more distant from where I was in Bath at the time but I remember the distant IC flashes in the CB

[Purplepixii]

Here is a video (compliation of strikes) I took from bristol of the 9th May 2008 storm, The best storm I have seen in the last five years.

I remember the june 25th 2009 too, It was much more distant from where I was in Bath at the time but I remember the distant IC flashes in the CB

What's the thing happening at around 18 seconds in? I see the lightning strike then lots of green & orange pulsing light!?? :wacko:

[DubWeatherAddict]

What's the thing happening at around 18 seconds in? I see the lightning strike then lots of green & orange pulsing light!?? :wacko:

Power flashes, the bolt blowing a transformer... Great shots indeed!

[dave48]

Yes indeed, that transformer took a bit hit!

[Coast]

Ireland about the closest any possibilities come for this weekend, and those aren't strong ones:

[Purplepixii]

that's curious as the local BBC forecasts this morning are warning this area that we might have thunderstorms on Saturday. According to NW Extra there is a 40% chance of them here on Saturday evening around 21:00hrs but I fully expect that to change

[Coast]

Hmmm, I can't see it at the moment PP:

Bit of rain maybe?