Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - 2012

[Robbie Garrett]

On my way to work, there are some nasty looking CBs popping up and about, Sun has come out too only to aid convection.

[weatherobsuk]

A bit of a late report (a day late lol) but I was up the Ranger Path on Snowdon yesterday along with a few others in the group dodging the showers as they came along. One was particularly nasty with embedded hail pellets which caused me to just ride it out, keeping warm and dry beneath the waterproofs and over-hoodie.

There was slight snow accumulations up on top by the late afternoon, by which time the sun was starting to set anyway.

[Wet'n'Dry]

Afternoon all, the prescence of CB's here has brought me from my winter hibernation.

Things are looking impressive, judging from aircraft passing @ 7,000ft the cloud tops are around 10,000 and going one way ^^

Here's hoping

[Stuart]

just a head up for next week end there maybe me storms parts of england and wales look at liffed index

[Raidan]

Just the one flash n rumble followed by a brief hail shower then heavy to moderate rain yesterday,I don't think anything will happen today maybe the odd shower but that will be it.

[Lynxus]

Oh My Guh..

Ive just found myself checking estofex for the first time this year!

Bring it on! 2012. You better be better than the last 3 years!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii1111

Some lovely looking Cu up north heading south. Some great convection about ( even though im not expecting anything to happen )

Looks like some sharp showers about.

[VillagePlank]

Yes, alas, the moment of truth on GFS was between 12z and 15z, but the latest forecasts trump the low(ish) LI's and keep CAPE relatively low. Not much energy, and even less chance of towering clouds, now.

Totals totals (TT) implies (very) sparse severe storms, and K-Index (K) implies a moderately convective atmosphere, so there is hope that someone somewhere in the UK (SE quadrant) will see something of interest. However, the balance of probability suggests that if it does happen, now, that will be a marvellous stroke of luck.

Perhaps a chance later this evening as the decaying front passes over London and beefs it up for Kent/E Sussex - but that really is clutching at straws.

Edited March 18, 2012 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[A.J]

Convection building a little more now, with a couple of showers with potent-looking cores on radar imagery. The one NNW of here - west of Rugeley headed towards Cannock/Hednesford region - is the one I'm keeping an eye on. Could get some convection building INVOF that shower's downdraft.

Visually, looking relatively decent in that direction.

Yeah, that shower has got to be dropping some nice hail. Be good to get reports from that region... Aaand there's the lightning.

been watching those cells in a line.....thought I heard a faint rumble, but the damn things have missed me by about 5 miles as I'm just to the west of them

[dave48]

That stuff in the midlands is looking pretty good.

Down here, sunny, a few towering cumulus around. Not expecting anything further to the few showers earlier.

[Thundery wintry showers]

A couple of showers around the Tyne and Wear area at the moment. It's been a good day for well-defined cloud formations (perhaps lack of wind and relatively low humidity may have helped), and there is currently a dark TCu to the west, made to look dramatic by covering the sun close to the horizon. It looks like missing Cleadon to the west/south though.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I did catch the edge of the shower in the end but it just gave a sprinkling of large raindrops.

[DubWeatherAddict]

2 photos from work yesterday here in Dublin.

Heard the 2 rumbles, missed at least one CG strike though

[BlueHedgehog074]

2 photos from work yesterday here in Dublin.

Heard the 2 rumbles, missed at least one CG strike though

Ar wow! Those showers.. look... Incredible! :-O Very, very stormy looking. Had one kinda similar to that today with a bit of rain and hail, although not quite as beastly-looking as those photos. Should have sent those storms over to my house.

[Coast]

Quite a good hail shower at 13.30 this afternoon and a sudden drop in temps by a few degrees. Fingers crossed for this year!

[Sprites]

As mentioned by weather09 on the previous page, an occlusion is expected to head north into southern areas by friday with a risk of sharp showers, if it was june/july it would be more likely to of been thundery, it could producd the jellyfish type altocumulus.

[Coast]

As mentioned by weather09 on the previous page, an occlusion is expected to head north into southern areas by friday with a risk of sharp showers, if it was june/july it would be more likely to of been thundery, it could producd the jellyfish type altocumulus.

Bit too early at the moment, needs a bit of heat adding to the recipe I guess? This is what GFS have and its too far below the line for me:

[Sprites]

Bit too early at the moment, needs a bit of heat adding to the recipe I guess? This is what GFS have and its too far below the line for me:

yes a bit early in the year for this type of scenario really, could make a few photogenic altocumuls though ...

[Coast]

There are a few little hints on Friday fro the South and South West, but at such a low level I think it's too little 'touch' and not enough 'go' !

Something (as has been said) to watch what develops over the next 48 hours......

[Sprites]

The local t.v. weather forecast yesterday for friday mentioned a few rumbles of thunder, i was surprised to hear that.... they use this term for anything from april showers through to a severe MCS though...

[Andy Bown]

If nothing else the sky should be interesting during tomorrow with thundery looking AltCas ahead of the frontal area.

[Bluebreezer54]

^^ So from that w09 would I be right in thinking the convective potential has pushed further west than earlier runs were suggesting ?

[Supacell]

I agree with Weather 09 relating to tonight/tomorrow. If there is going to be anything then I think SE Ireland looks best bet, thats if there is anything.

Heads up, early next week looks to bring a few possibilities from my reading of the charts. I know its a long way off and its only March, but i think its worth keeping an eye on

[Coast]

Before we even get to tomorrow, ESTOFEX have something lurking to our West today:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Thu 22 Mar 2012 06:00 to Fri 23 Mar 2012 06:00 UTC

Issued: Thu 22 Mar 2012 05:37

Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

A broad ridge covers most of Europe. Relatively cold mid-levels are present as indicated by latest soundings, leading to rather steep lapse rates. Steepest lapse rates are expected with mid-level cut-off lows across western and central Europe today.

The low-level moisture is poor over eastern Europe and the dry air mass spreads southward into the east and central Mediterranean. Better low-level moisture is located over the west Mediterranean Sea and advects into southern France and the Bay of Biscaya. Locally moisture pooling is also likely along weak fronts from Germany into the northern Balkans.

Especially the complex cut-off low currently over the Bay of Biscay and Iberia will lead to quasi-geostrophic forcing. The northern center of this trough will move northwards and will deepen over the western British Isles. The southern part will slowly move east into southern France. Weak low-level forcing can be expected along of sea-breeze fronts, upslope flow und weak frontal boundaries over Central Europe.

DISCUSSION

British Isles

Strong QG forcing can be expected with the cut-off low moving northwards today. Moist maritime air that will spread into Ireland may destabilize in response to the lift, and showers and thunderstorms may develop during the period. Weak vertical wind shear near the trough's center will limit the severe potential

I'm not quite sure if I'm going with that potential , here are some charts:

[Coast]

I also remain reserved about tomorrow, with anything still way out West, perhaps touching NI?

[Stuart]

nice to see some risk of storms here tomorrow