Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - 2012

[Coast]

I'd say a very low chance and more so after the weekend?

[Stuart]

i think it still a bit to early for storms

[Alex95]

i think it still a bit to early for storms

Probably, but NW Scotland occasionally gets a rumble or two during very unstable westerlies - similarly the NE can get thundersnow during very unstable NE'lies.

Edited February 23, 2012 by Alza 2

[Alex95]

Has been slightly interesting outputs from the GFS and ECM of late (moreso the latter), with medium-range modelling suggesting a more amplified 500mb pattern toward the latter part of next week, with relatively low heights digging south toward Iberia. For a decent shot at convective potential, we're going to want to see the ridge extend a little more north than is being shown currently, so as the low-level moisture can flow northward as lower heights overspread the UK.

Current modelling for T+168 from the ECM in particular shows a decent synoptic setup:

In all, bit far out, and we're still early in the year for serious convective potential, but something to keep an eye on, I'd say.

Its rather early for surface based convection, but I guess something could crop up in Southern England next week, especially the SW.

If that chart came up in summer though I'd be tempted to get myself down to SW England though!

Edited February 23, 2012 by Alza 2

[Nick F]

Probably coming into the least thundery part of the year now though, with SSTs at their coldest, the sun still too weak to produce strong enough land-based convection for storms and also temperature contrasts between mid and upper levels too weak for elevated storms.

Potential normally returns from mid-March though as the temperature contrasts increase again between the surface and upper airmasses.

[Alex95]

Probably coming into the least thundery part of the year now though, with SSTs at their coldest, the sun still too weak to produce strong enough land-based convection for storms and also temperature contrasts between mid and upper levels too weak for elevated storms.

Potential normally returns from mid-March though as the temperature contrasts increase again between the surface and upper airmasses.

I agree actually, although thundersnow is possible from the North Sea if there is a very cold NE'ly or N'ly - not gonna happen this year though!

I'm looking forward to chasing those elusive Spanish Plumes this year as the models haven't been serving much interest this winter, bar the failed easterly in early Feb.

Edited February 23, 2012 by Alza 2

[MP-R]

March 2001 and 2003 certainly had early thunder, so I suppose anything is possible. Looking forward to the first convective shots though.

[A.J]

I wouldn't say 'no' to another May 9th 2011 setup just a couple of months earlier :winky:

[Coast]

GFS says:

Still looks quiet to me, nothing at all in the South this week, in the North, the total-total values are OK, but not worth getting excited about, some LI values head towards zero but nothing negative. I've not gone any further than the above as it just doesn't give me the feeling that there is a convective week ahead.

[Raidan]

Not looking to much into it as still early in the year but the weather forecast on t.v mentioned possible thundery showers here tomorrow and a forecast found on the net has slight chance of a thunderstorm.

[Jane Louise]

Hey all, I've seen some Altocumulus Floccus today and it's still hanging around tonight. I'm hoping this bodes well for some thunder tomorrow.

[Alex95]

Unusually high thunderstorm risk tomorrow for the time of year for Ireland, Wales, NW England and SW Scotland (30-50% risk), and maybe SW England. Obviously there won't be any spectacular thunderstorms, but possibly a few rumbles in some of the showers. The BBC mentioned hail and thunder for the first time this year on this evening's weather forecast!

[Jane Louise]

I'm happy with any convection lol good luck one and all. Haven't checked Estofex for such a long time so will have a peep tonight.

[Raidan]

I posted earliar about some possible thundery activity tomorrow but I put it in the atlantic storms thread,posted without thinking(sorry)can someone move it 2 here please thanks.

[Jane Louise]

Just tried to move it over Raidan, but It seems to have disappeared

[Jane Louise]

Found it lol it's on page 6

[Supacell]

A chance of some rumbles tomorrow afternoon by the looks of it across the areas mentioned in earlier posts. For the 3rd March it is looking quite good.

I am looking forward to 2012. I am hoping it will be the best year thus far for me storm chasing (2006 will take some beating though). I have just got a new laptop so can have netweather on the move and will subscribe to netweather extra before the storm season this year. Plus i split up with the girlfriend over the winter so have nobody to answer to now

Just need mother nature to play ball.

By the way if I don't get a storm tomorrow I will give up on storms for this year!!!! lol

Edited March 2, 2012 by Supacell

[Thundery wintry showers]

The potential for tomorrow doesn't look great to me, judging by the GFS synoptic/temperature/precipitation/CAPE outputs, but it's the most we'll have for quite a while.

I remember the thunderstorms on the 1st March 2003- I was in Lancaster at the time and the thunderstorms developed at around 5pm and tracked north-eastwards through Lancashire and into parts of north-east England. The most thundery start to March in the last 20 years though was probably in 1995 when the cold west to north-westerlies produced considerable instability over the Atlantic and Irish Sea and brought fairly widespread thunder to western areas, and conditions were sufficiently unstable for the relatively weak sun to still trigger homegrown convection in eastern areas.

[Aaron]

NW puts me as a 31% risk for a storm today.. not great, but it's only March and as mentioned above the best we can expect for a while

[Alex95]

The best chance today appears to be Northern Ireland this morning, then later on Cumbria and Southern Scotland. These areas can expect some pretty heavy downpours even if they don't turn thundery. Hopefully there'll be some spectacular cloudscapes over the Lake District mountains thIs afternoon!

EDIT: a line of intense showers moving into SW England just behind the main front - this will hopefully be the scene later on further north.

Edited March 3, 2012 by Alza 2

[Coast]

Not amazing potential for my untrained eyes, but none the less, ESTOFEX do have an area marked for a forecast:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Sat 03 Mar 2012 06:00 to Sun 04 Mar 2012 06:00 UTC

Issued: Sat 03 Mar 2012 04:05

Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 was forecast for northern Turkey mainly for a chance of isolated severe convective wind gusts / tornado.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

The Iberian upper cut-off low shifts into the western Mediterranean. Weak CAPE will be present and also the cap is not zero, so activity will likely be sparse. Both GFS and HiRLAM produce a thunderstorm just south of the Pyrenees in northeastern Spain, but HiRLAM produces more precipitation and is less capped than GFS due to much higher mixing ratios. It also has a more unstable situation with SBCAPE over southern France than GFS, but both do have slightly uncapped possibilities for a few locations.

A depression moving from the Black Sea into northern Turkey also spawns very slight CAPE but cold EL temperatures on its cold front in aforementioned models, but CIN seems limiting. Forcing on the other hand is strong and the situation may well produce a narrow convective line with some severe wind gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado, as low-level and deep layer shear (>35 m/s) are royally present.

Other slight instability appears around a backbent occlusion over the British isles. The cold front of the same depression lies over western France. The axis southern Norway-Italy lies under a ridge and has stable conditions.

None of the other dedicated storm sites have any forecasts or warnings, so I'll just throw a few charts in here to exercise your scrolling fingers!

If you live somewhere in the triangle of Belfast>Glasgow>Barrow in Furness, it might be worth sticking your head out of the window this afternoon, but I wouldn't make a special journey of more than 10 miles!!!!

[Stuart]

there a potential there but dont think see this happing

[weatherobsuk]

Things already getting underway across the span of the Welsh borders and into the Irish sea.

[Alex95]

The sun is coming out in Cumbria now after a wet morning, and I can see quite a lot of convective-looking clouds.

[Raidan]

Just had 3 short lived but heavy hail showers here,back to bright conditions now