Model Output Discussion - 8th - 14th January

[Matty M]

Amazed at some of the negative posts so far on the 18z run. It is still looking game on from where

I am sitting.

It is the trend mate. Big changes around Greenland from 12z to 18z around T72 which looks like the GFS is moving towards the ECM/UKM sol for this situation and could go further towards this Solution in the morning, which would things progressively less favourable.

[kold weather]

Looks like a close but not quite solution from the 18z. I personally don't think we'll see much if anything from this intial attempt, but think its setting the ground for a later attack, perhaps somewhat similar to what GP has said in the past.

PV is pretty stubborn this year, but it is far weaker then it has been thus far this year, by quite some way by 168hrs...

[Gowon]

All that PV bottled up over Greenland et al is only going to do one thing on the 18z GFS.

Such an intense PV segment.

Yeah, get shoved back to where it came from!!

[SMU]

http://176.31.229.22...18-0-174.png?18

looking good-

waiting for a trigger low to develop over cornwall-

Jet piling SE towards spain- no overun on the 18z

S

STELLA 80's run coming

Edited January 9, 2012 by Steve Murr

[Zakos]

1040mb just east of Svalbard... much higher than the 12z.

Now, will it set up shop over Scandinavia, or will the jet stream crash on through?

well know in a few minutes

Edited January 9, 2012 by Zakos

[Matty M]

http://176.31.229.22...18-0-174.png?18

looking good-

waiting for a trigger low to develop over cornwall-

Jet piling SE towards spain- no overun on the 18z

S

Looking at T180 at this stage is abit futile!

[mountain shadow]

The Meto 120 doesn't look to bad with plenty of WAA. Problem is we can't see far enough north.

[bluearmy]

http://176.31.229.22...18-0-174.png?18

looking good-

waiting for a trigger low to develop over cornwall-

Jet piling SE towards spain- no overun on the 18z

S

the block over svaalbard there again and looks better than on the previous run. one step back and another one forwards. dont mind this run - like that block for later on though low res may lose the plot as the shortwave coming across the atlantic is earlier than on the 12z run. good to see that the 18z isnt a complete change in pattern though.

[SMU]

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gfs/runs/gfsnh-2012010918-0-186.png?18

Shortwave over cornwall now developing

THIS IS THE COBRA RUN- trust me these are the perfect synopics-

S

[Tim Bland]

Could the atlantic be about to meet the cold air from the east! Cold air from the east, moisture from the west what could that mean? Did someone say the S word?

Epic Synoptics as Steve would say!! Will take this over a dry easterly with a snow grain any day!

Very risky long term though but I like a gamble

Edited January 9, 2012 by Tim Bland

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Well despite some bizarre commentary 18z brings some very cold conditions for the UK in the reliable timeframe with temps struggling in daytime and subzero at night!!

[Tom Montalbano]

I'm with CC on this one, dont quite understand some of the negative comments.

To me that nose of the Arctic High looks stronger on this run and do I detect a hint of yellow popping up near Svarlbad.

Also just a hint of that portion of the PV edging west away from Greenland. All very micro-scale, as Steve suggests.

Regards,

Tom.

[ukpaul]

http://176.31.229.22...18-0-186.png?18

Shortwave over cornwall now developing

THIS IS THE COBRA RUN- trust me these are the perfect synopics-

S

Been watching that little baby all the way from the deep south. Exactly what the best of the ensemble runs developed.

Edited January 9, 2012 by ukpaul

[Liam J]

WOW the 18z is bordering on something special, Atlantic is blocked out west, jet diving south and a 1040mb high over Scandinavia!

Am I dreaming?

Edited January 9, 2012 by Liam J

[Gowon]

http://176.31.229.22...18-0-186.png?18

Shortwave over cornwall now developing

THIS IS THE COBRA RUN- trust me these are the perfect synopics-

S

Mind you wet yourself!!

[kold weather]

300mbs profile looks good at 186hrs, the jet is a little on the strong side though, which means we may still be too far west despite the good upper pattern.

The key is getting that upper high to get going over Ne Europe, if that happens then its just going to be a matter of whether it sets up far enough west for the UK.

[Zakos]

ermmmm yeah http://nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120109/18/276/h850t850eu.png

Edited January 9, 2012 by Zakos

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

http://176.31.229.22...18-0-186.png?18

Shortwave over cornwall now developing

THIS IS THE COBRA RUN- trust me these are the perfect synopics-

S

If we get to this then we have MONSTER synoptics to follow. Folks look at the way we get here on the run, its all holdng up and the block to NE is edging WSW.

BFTP

Edited January 9, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[nick sussex]

If we were offered this run last night most would have passed out with excitement!

Once you get the Arctic high orientated in that manner and the jet going se theres only one winner, it doesn't matter how ugly the PV looks it will not win but disrupt and be sent packing.

A superb run if you want an extended cold spell, but unfortunately not backed by the ECM.

More drama then likely tomorrow morning!

[Snowy Easterly]

This run looks to perfect can it happen ?

[Andy_]

Very exciting seeing those 2 Low Pressure systems lurking out in the Atlantic,

Then BAM, something has to give, and the cold air caves over the top of the winning lower latitude Low Pressure as it tracks south east into Southern Europe

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Atlantic hits BRICK WALL

[kold weather]

As Steve said, FI is right out of the 80s textbook...

Sad thing is FI is probably around 120hrs right now, and the key really is that upper high developin g strongly enough further north to force the jetstream northwards far enough west.

FI is immense though!!

PS, its a reloader as well...so several easterly shots likely!

[ukpaul]

This run looks to perfect can it happen ?

About four of the ensemble runs on the 12z showed pretty much the same, so I don't think it will be without support this time.

[minus 9]

Can i bank the gfs 240 chart. What a beut