Model Output Discussion - 8th - 14th January

[lorenzo]

Not a very looking zonal pattern there...

Troughing digging in well also.

[Harsh Climate]

Id say this run is a small improvement on the 6z. So far.

High pressure over scandinavia further west and the low near the bay of biscay is bigger and digging in more.

Edited January 8, 2012 by Harsh Climate

[summer blizzard]

GFS12z has the low west of Greenland 10mb deeper than the ECWMF at day 6.

This will not be good.

[Isolated Frost]

Zonal US trough or not, we indeed have a trigger low and that AH has ridged further south... compared to the 6z at least (which I know is not the right thing to do )

[KTtom]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

Must be odds on an easterly on this run...cut off low in place to undercut.

[sn0wman]

It looks like a much better run to me so far? We have a nice slider low in this one which could undercut the high and make an Easterly more likely. I think so anyway.

[weatherguy]

Yum.

[summer blizzard]

GFS12z does however develop the southern stream low south west of the UK so it may rescue itself.

[Matty M]

Unfortunately the jet in the Atlantic is coming straight at us at T156

But this is the GFS.

A positive run IMO and backs last night 12z, and infact even improves on it

Edited January 8, 2012 by Matty M

[dixonoid]

Flicking between 6z and 12z, everything has moved a little bit west and the pressure has increased in the arctic.

[summer blizzard]

Vortex is split on the NH chart, easterly is on the way even if i believe the ECWMF will be closer to the mark.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Surely this shows potential if nothing else? I also noticed earlier that Peter Gibbs mentioned on his forecast at lunchtime that he could be talking about colder weather by next weekend.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1621.png

Edited January 8, 2012 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[Harsh Climate]

That low trying to dig in to the block to the east, doesn't get very far though and seems to weaken. Maybe if that struggles to push east maybe the jet will two??

Edited January 8, 2012 by Harsh Climate

[Cheshire Freeze]

Yes even with te jet firing directly at us, it has to buckle with that huge high forming to the east, that's some mega WAA heading up north inflating the high

[Zakos]

Stronger heights over the arctic . Pv weaker and further west over greenland. Jet stream slightly weaker.

12z could be a stonker in FI

[Matty M]

That low trying to dig in to the block to the east, doesn't get very far though and seems to weaken. Maybe if that struggles to push east maybe the jet will two??

You won't stop that sort of jet mate! But yea a positive run and the GFS often overdoes the Jet

[summer blizzard]

Looks like the trigger low is too weak on the GFS12z.

What i will say is that that up to day 7 the GFS12z does show dilution of the vortex west of Greenland which is a positive.

[January Snowstorm]

Another failed attempt.

Let's just hope either the jet of the Scandi high win quickly because these half efforts can and will burn up more valuable time

[leicsnow]

Stronger heights over the arctic . Pv weaker and further west over greenland. Jet stream slightly weaker.

12z could be a stonker in FI

Well considering some of the eye candy is only a week away, it may not even be considered FI!

[Harsh Climate]

You won't stop that sort of jet mate! But yea a positive run and the GFS often overdoes the Jet

Ye, probably wishful thinking. Does seem to split into 2 as it hits the block though.

[ukpaul]

The problem that GFS has of overdoing lows coming in from the Atlantic is why it is giving a different solution when compared to GEM and ECM. it keeps trying to wind them up too much sending things further east. Given how GFS pretty much always downgrades these lows I modify every run it puts out in my mind in relation to that.

[January Snowstorm]

UKMO looks poor enough too

ECM will have to be the saviour tonight

Edit @144hrs its dire!

Edited January 8, 2012 by January Snowstorm

[Zenarcher]

The 12z GFS has done exactly what I expected it to do start to play catch up with the ECM and GEM. It's very important I believe that the high pressure moves more North to stop PV having to much power and ruining our chances. On the latest run it has moved it further North and PV looks weaker than what it was on the 06z run this morning. That being said the PV is still there but on this afternoons update a move towards the GEM and ECM overall a improvement. All we need now is the ECM to stick to what it was saying to have more confidence in this. Sadly looking at the 12z UKMO it doesn't look all that great.

[Matty M]

Yep UKM would bring a return to the zonal train with some cold zonality at times.

[kold weather]

Yes GFs attempts to do something interesting at 168hrs but the jet is too strong and crashes through. I've seen several different times the GFS be overly agressive with the jet, though my gut is this time thats not a bad solution.

FI is looking interesting over the Arctic though, looks like its got a decent looking -ve AO going with decent heights there as well...