Model Output Discussion - 8th - 14th January

[SMU]

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-150.png?12

Control is a MILLION miles away from the 06z

Ensemble mean is a lot better ' 150

S

[Stormyking]

When does the ECM come out ?

Starts rolling out at 6pm I think, am I correct people?

Interesting GFS 12z, alot of potential still showing, still not getting over excited or anything, but interesting to still see improvemnts! Patience still required and will be interesting to view each run before we get to over excited .

I am remaining positive!

[snowlover2009]

You see this is what annoys me most when something interesting develops in the models, people wittering on, being pathetic by posting some of the best charts we have seen in months and saying things like 'its dire'. I just viewed the ukmo charts. Where on earth do people get their info? It is not perfect, but the heights over scandi are there and that is all that matters at this stage. I would just expect it to be a slower process to getting a proper easterly thats all. People are never ever satisfied!!That is the most blocked gfs FI I have seen since December 2010 and people make ridiculous assumptions of how 'it looks suspect'. Good grief! Believe it or not, there would be some major snow events in FI for the north in particular. Then again, people won't be happy till they see -15 uppers over the UK. The details are not important for goodness sake, just the pattern and atm there is agreement for a scandi high to develop end of the week! Stop complaining because you are all complaining at something you wanted to see anyway and that is pathetic to be honest. Clearly people need to retake lessons in reading the models properly.

EDIT: the orientation of the high over scandi at the end of the week, reminds me of the developing high in January 1947 or from the big winters in the past.

Edited January 8, 2012 by snowlover2009

[cooling climate]

I said a couple of days ago we may see a beasterly before the end of January and the extended

output from the GFS shows the sort of potential I was alluding to. As SM has just said its a pity

the run did not go on for another 4 or 5 days because if it had I am sure we would have seen

synoptics delivering -16 850 hpa across the country.

As for the near term I can not see the first attempt making it but it is all part of the pattern change to

a very much colder outlook imo.

[Zenarcher]

Some improvement in the UKMO for Friday 12pm, the chart below compares to yesterdays and today's run.

[Bobby]

It looks like that this attempt at an easterly will probably fail but before people reach for the razor blades there was a near miss Scandi high easterly at about this time of the year in 1947 too, before wet and windy zonality raged back in over the UK.

However 2 weeks or so later there was another attempt at an easterly which succeeded.

The rest as they say is history.

The changes recently are positive and there's plenty of time yet,

[mountain shadow]

I made the mistake of looking at this thread before looking at the 12z. Easterlies are NEVER modelled correctly, as long as we keep getting the Arctic High dropping into Scandanavia we're in with a shout.

[SMU]

12z ensembles waking up -- Start the -10c ensemble tracker-

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-19-1-192.png?12

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-16-1-216.png?12

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-3-1-204.png?12

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-5-1-276.png?12 ( looks like GP's Feb forecast)

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-8-1-228.png?12

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-9-1-240.png?12

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-11-1-300.png?12

S

[A Winter's Tale]

I thought the 12z run was great with loads of potential.

Despite being messy, we had a few positives: Height rises over Iceland/Greenland/Arctic and Scandi; lots of cold air to our north, east and west; weakening PV, and a decent easterly in the north at the end.

I surely do hope that this chart happens!

[chionomaniac]

Having just got in and read the last few pages - without looking at the models I wouldn't know what to think.

A suggestion - please wait a little bit before judging a whole run from the first five days. Some time it is better to say nothing and wait to see what happens later in the run rather than jump in too early and write it off.

Sometimes less is more, as the thread can get so diluted it may be hard to pick out the quality information.

[Zakos]

Yes, those who say the current output is dire, should think back to this time last month, and realise we are far, far more likely to experience some "real" cold despite what the current models are showing for the UK itself.

This time last month, we were looking out for pockets of -5 t850's in a Polar Maritime incursions. No northern blocking whatsoever even in the deepest of FI.

Were now looking at potential for serious cold, with a sustained strongly negative -AO and -NAO. Still to early for any real certainty of course.

I for one am highly anticipating the ECM 12z today. IF it stick to its Scandi high forecast, this will be very encouraging IMO.

[Bobby]

12z GEM has dropped its easterly

Compared to 00z run

[January Snowstorm]

Yes, those who say the current output is dire, should think back to this time last month, and realise we are far, far more likely to experience some "real" cold despite what the current models are showing for the UK itself.

I had lying snow twice in December from cold zonality

As I said earlier yes FI is good but a half way house is not what we need and would likely see out January

Hopefully the ECM will deliver yet again :-)

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

12z GEM has dropped its easterly

Compared to 00z run

Thats a concern for those wanting an Easterly.

Thats UKMO/GEM looking flat as a pancake at 144h.

starting to feel the vortex and its associated energy might have to much 'huff',for the time being.

[Tim Bland]

12z GFS op was a mild outlier for the south in FI

[nick sussex]

Putting aside the GFS the UKMO is an improvement from this morning with a more amplified upstream pattern.

At worst the 168hrs would probably show a nw/se tilt to the jet with pressure rising to the ne. Interestingly if you look at its 96hrs chart

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=96&carte=1021

Thats actually better than the GFS in terms of the orientation of that low to the west its tilt is more condusive to WAA, but then you can see trouble brewing over ne Canada in its different view of troughing, because it separates the troughing and pushes a shortwave into the Atlantic at 120hrs it flattens the pattern more just when you need to keep the amplification.

This small difference earlier makes a big difference later, for this reason keep an eye on that trough on the ECM.

Unfortunately the main backing for this mornings ECM, the GEM completely jumps ship to a very poor looking 144hrs chart, the differences between its 144hrs and earlier 156hrs are unbelievable, you wouldn't think it was possible:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0&carte=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=156&mode=0&carte=1

I think this just goes to show how volatile the pattern is, that is a staggering change, the biggest I've ever seen in just 12hrs!

[Zakos]

I had lying snow twice in December from cold zonality

As I said earlier yes FI is good but a half way house is not what we need and would likely see out January

Hopefully the ECM will deliver yet again :-)

Oh yes, December was far from dire, I too had 2 days of temporary snow cover. The background synoptics are now in a much better state IMO. Hoperfully yes, It will be disappointing if the ECM aswell backs off from the

[kold weather]

GFS ensembles are all over the place again, though its worth noting most of the colder solutions are *northerly/NW airflows and NOT easterlies.

Still I'd happily take those northerly set-ups, as long as we can get some sort of NW-SE movement of the jet things will have improved from where we are now.

[phil nw.]

First of all a look at the next few days.

The High is modelled just to the South of the UK for much of next week with a westerly flow from the Atlantic.It looks like it could be quite cloudy for many with some patchy light rain further north as weak frontal systems wriggle across the country.

Here`s a snapshot for T84hrs

a fairly typical day during the week.

Towards the end of next week the High attempts to ridge north in response to an aproaching Atlantic trough and this appears to be the window that yesterdays 12z runs took to build the High towards Scandinavia and of course create quite a lot of interest wrt a possible Easterly.

We still have the 12z ECM to come but the output so far at T144 shows last nights Easterly evolution to be much less likely imo.

That piece of vortex over Greenland is so persistent and spins off enough energy to the North to topple the attempt.

The vortex is certainly looking weaker with the fragmentations modelled around it`s edges as we can see on the above images,but for now those low heights over Greenland are the spoiler.

12Z GEfs Ens graph looks fairly run of the mill tonight,compared to yesterday

A bit of a step back for cold seekers tonight but with more Strato warming expected hopefully there will be more chances soon.

[UV-RAY]

The first attempt at an easterly from the proposed set-up is not going to come off, it's a longer game but the game is on.

Indeed, Easterly's generally require a few bites of the cherry before becoming established. IMO we'll have a period of cold zonality prior to any Easterly, though a much cooler version than the one in December. Edited January 8, 2012 by Seven of Nine

[phil nw.]

GFS ensembles are all over the place again, though its worth noting most of the colder solutions are *northerly/NW airflows and NOT easterlies.

Still I'd happily take those northerly set-ups, as long as we can get some sort of NW-SE movement of the jet things will have improved from where we are now.

I think any evolution to cold will likely come from the first option of a Atlantic ridging towards Greenland,troughing into Europe from Scandi and therefore a Northerly result-but not yet.

This solution showed in many ens members and the odd control run days ago but for now has been dropped.

[J10]

12Z GEfs Ens graph looks fairly run of the mill tonight,compared to yesterday

A bit of a step back for cold seekers tonight but with more Strato warming expected hopefully there will be more chances soon.

(only part of the post is quoted)

To be fair though that only goes out to T+192, there are quite a few colder ensembles after this point, if can get to the FI position, it really augers well for cold transferring to the UK. It is disappointing the UKMO and GEM 12Hz) only go out to T+144.

It will be interesting to see the ECM this evening.

[January Snowstorm]

ECM at 96hrs, so far so good!!

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2012010812/ECH1-120.GIF?08-0

Nice- a perfect arc over the UK- Also the key is that low, plenty of trough disruption as the jet heads off NE & a peice of energy is sent South-

steve

[Matty M]

Last nights 12z GEM dropped the easterly too but the 0z today backed up yesterdays 0z! like for like!

ECM looks very diff to UKM at 120.

Things look cut but we NEED a trigger.

My guess is ECM will go for a HIGH smack bang over UK&IRE, cold into southeast EUROPE!

Edited January 8, 2012 by Matty M