Model Output Discussion - 8th - 14th January

[sn0wman]

GFS looking fantastic in FL, with a strong Greenie High linking up with the Scandinavian one. If only...

[weathe20]

Not convienced, looks a total model mess on 12z.

[kold weather]

Yep UKM would bring a return to the zonal train with some cold zonality at times.

Hard to tell without being able to see what it does further north over the Arctic regions. Still the UKMO never tends to like developing easterlies and it doesn't tend to pick out cut-off lows very well at all...

Then again it often does do better with shortwaves in this type of set-up, so what its poor at it makes back up with being strong in another aspect of the set-up...

GFS FI is so interesting...

It shows what happens if we get a good solid -ve AO with the vortex well displaced...but the LP is still a little strong...reminds me of a 70s -ve AO type set-up...

[Harsh Climate]

Some people need to learn how to read charts properly, Whats wrong with this??

[January Snowstorm]

Indeed FI part of 12z runs looks good.

I think the word patience comes to mind again as it looks clear to me we wont get there on the 1st attempt

[ITSY]

look NW?

[JP1972]

Lack of agreement is a sign surely that change is definitely afoot and the models are struggling to pinpoint what the outcome will be?

FI must be 144 right now ...

[Matty M]

Some people need to learn how to read charts properly, Whats wrong with this??

We arent looking that far ahead chieftain.

We are looking around 168hr

Past that is LA LA LA land.

[weathe20]

Some people need to learn how to read charts properly, Whats wrong with this??

-5 line only enters scotland. And no flow from the continent, just from SW/W

[Harsh Climate]

Even on the ukmo 144h, you can see another ridge of high pressure on its way to iceland/scandinavia.

[ukpaul]

Some people need to learn how to read charts properly, Whats wrong with this??

It isn't so much what it looks like for me, it's just that the earlier part of the run overdoes things and so it has pretty much zero chance of happening, if the ECM and GEM start to rev up the zonal train more between 144 and 168h then GFS might be onto something but there's a division at the moment on that.

[Harsh Climate]

We arent looking that far ahead chieftain.

We are looking around 168hr

Past that is LA LA LA land.

Yes and at 168h we have improvements!!!!!! Which I said is most important, then I showed the FI chart just to highlight that around 180-220h wasn't bad and could lead to something better

[J10]

To me, it appears that the low pressure is really having trouble in getting past the meridian (at least in the high res part of the run), as soon as the low res comes in it flies eastward. So while there is eye candy at the end of the run, this is so far into FI as to not mean much.

http://nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120108/12/192/h500slp.png <- T+192 (end of Hi Res)

[Harsh Climate]

-5 line only enters scotland. And no flow from the continent, just from SW/W

Yes but where looking for patterns/trends NOT specifics at that stage.

[kold weather]

FI is probably around 120hrs right now. i'd lean towards us not getting anything of real note on the first bite of the cherry, most models keep the cold to our east (other then the ECM/GEM 00z runs, but their ensembles don't agree with them) but I'd be looking at another wave of heights developing in the Arctic between 240-300hrs and that is exactly what the 12z GFS develops. I doubt the vortex totally decays though so we are going to need some luck as to where it all places itself.

[SMU]

Sometimes no matter what you believe you wish the GFS went a bit further

http://176.31.229.22...12-0-384.png?12 LOL

However the proof that the 06z was pretty pony in the atlantic & the GFs 12z is a lot better, still a way away from the ECM, - if you notice the PV & fronts are further back west &the jet train is sheared SE-

its all pretty status quo today.

UKMO is interesting however needs a 168 chart to see what the profile of the jet is-

regards

Steve

Edited January 8, 2012 by Steve Murr

[summer blizzard]

In the reliable time frame the GFS12z is a pretty poor run however looking at the wider picture and within the next 8 days we do see a complete vortex split and the lobe west of Greenland forecast to weaken which leads to the complete stalemate as indicated by the winds against the block being SSE at day 8...

What this means is that for the jet to get east, it has to to go south which while still bad for the UK does allow blocking over Greenland to develop a few days later and the vortex lobe west of Greenland to be very weak...

GFS12z is certainly progress for the GFS model however it relies on there being more energy in the jet than the ECWMF forecasts as early as day 5 which is why i am skeptical.

[ITSY]

stunning potential to end the 12z run with - massive blocking over the arctic and proper heights over Iceland and Eastern Greenland - with a colder Europe. Not too bothered about what happens for the next 7-1o days, lets just keep seeing how the models play this scenario out - if by the 23rd Jan we are looking at heights over svalbard, iceland, russia and greenland we will have to be more unlucky than lucky to not get something interesting. not to say we won't be unlucky, but compared to what we've seen of the last 2 months, that run is (for me) the best for potential that we've seen thus far

[The Northern Ramper]

Some people need to learn how to read charts properly, Whats wrong with this??

Its thirteen days away.

[Harsh Climate]

I'm starting to think that unless the charts are showing raging easterlies with -15hpa Uppers and a perfect greeny high, people aren't going to be happy with the output. -_-

What we are looking for are patterns and small improvements run to run, those expecting the wholy grail to pop up at t120h will sadly be dissapointed.

[summer blizzard]

Even on the ukmo 144h, you can see another ridge of high pressure on its way to iceland/scandinavia.

It is a slower evolution however i think we would end up somewhere between the GFS stalemate and the ECWMF easterly.

[Stu_London]

12z FI never really delivers anything that cold to our shores but it probably won't be close to verifying.

The interesting charts are those from the transistion from reliable to FI, which as KW states is probably from +120. From here to about +180 there is loads of potential and I would expect a few ensemble members to be quite peachy indeed.

You also have to consider that this is an evolving situation - we have come from a situation 3 days ago where there was very little northern blocking on offer to models today where arctic high and greeny high solutions are starting to look like the form horse.

[camiscool]

When does the ECM come out ?

[Stuart]

When does the ECM come out ?

about 6pm to 7

[Uncle_Barty]

Lack of agreement is a sign surely that change is definitely afoot and the models are struggling to pinpoint what the outcome will be?

FI must be 144 right now ...

Indeed. At such a time of change and uncertainty, I , more than usual, really would not be looking beyond Day 6 right now.

We need to see how the 500mb pattern settles - would be far more useful than looking at T+240 and noting that that low near Greenland is 5mb deeper compared with the 06z, or the russian high is 20 miles further west... futile, IMHO.