Model Output Discussion - 8th - 14th January

[cooling climate]

Don't know what is going on with the images I am posting tonight

but here is the H 500 Jan 17 1947 chart.

[john mac]

Well the GFS18Z will probably come up with another stella run just to confuse us more after a frustrating afternoon.

[SP1986]

I've heard that the 144 hr onwards charts for the ECM were edited by Darren Bett tonight, don't know whether this is true though. Heard something about deep cold and scandi high in the raw output, whatever that means.

Oh I got it

I think the differing opinions reflect the outputs tonight, not much agreement at this stage. I think the safe bet (and I don't mean bett, as in Darren) for now, is that we look like heading into something cooler, perhaps frostier, but not very cold. Any substantial cold hasn't shown up yet, and most likely won't show up in the model for at least a week.

[johnholmes]

The UKMO only goes out to +144 so never had a chance to show the easterly.

Can't argue with the verification stats of it,but i do wonder if it would get so much love

if it went out to +240.

Going out to T+240 is the job of ECMWF that is what the accronym means Medium Range Forecasting, 10 days was the decision over 25 years ago as the most realistic to expect real and lasting improvements would be possible as far ahead as the meteorologists in Europe could see when ECMWF was set up.

The close working relationship between UK Met and ECMWF is, in part, responsible (sorry admin off topic but it is pertinent to this thread I feel) creates much of the hot air about what can and cannot be posted on the web from either of the two centres.

copyright is the word I was seeking!

Edited January 8, 2012 by johnholmes

[Summer Sun]

NOGAPS is the best of the rest tonight

Yes high pressure is over the UK but it will be cooler than of late if nothing else.

[Optimus Prime]

Oh dear I wish I hadn't mentioned 1947.

all anyone taking a measured look at the models can respond to that is tough Nick.

They do not and never have promised some of the things that have been posted in here Like I said earlier today let's have some realism.

The most likely happening is for high pressure at the surface to quieten things down, especially in the south (ridge/high) most probably close by the west or SW of the country. West of the country, IF that is where it decides to be, would mean the prob of some brief northerly type shots. Nothing is being predicted by anything that I can see better than that out to at least the 3rd week of January if not further.

The situation is pretty volatile and that's a good summary of the models in my opnion.

Edited January 8, 2012 by Osbourne One-Nil
quoted post has been removed.

[Cheshire Freeze]

He was trying to be funny.

Some people don't need to try, with the sense of humour coming naturally :winky:

TBH I don't think anyone is expecting a 1947 redux and the models certainly don't suggest this at the minute

[nick sussex]

all anyone taking a measured look at the models can respond to that is tough Nick.

They do not and never have promised some of the things that have been posted in here Like I said earlier today let's have some realism.

The most likely happening is for high pressure at the surface to quieten things down, especially in the south (ridge/high) most probably close by the west or SW of the country. West of the country, IF that is where it decides to be, would mean the prob of some brief northerly type shots. Nothing is being predicted by anything that I can see better than that out to at least the 3rd week of January if not further.

The last bit of my post was supposed to be taken a bit tongue in cheek! I'm well aware of what the models have been showing, I've hardly been bigging up the easterly especially as the UKMO didn't want to know in the crucial early stages. A point I've made several times today!

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Some people don't need to try, with the sense of humour coming naturally :winky:

TBH I don't think anyone is expecting a 1947 redux and the models certainly don't suggest this at the minute

Models are suggesting the PV taking a 5 minute fag break from Greeny and returning to base rapdio!!

[snowlover2009]

I wouldn't say the 18z is crucial, but even December 2010, the models had ups and downs, with regards to the pattern for the second half of the month and people were worried. I think if anything gfs will stick to its guns and have a lot more support from the ensembles.

Edited January 8, 2012 by Osbourne One-Nil

[JP1972]

Would it be possible to set up a thread which is solely used by the moderators, Holmesy, Nicholas Sussex, TEITS, Chino, GP, RJS, Kold, Damianslaw, OON (the miserable sod), SP1986, Anyweather and the experienced gang, to get an objective slant on what the models are showing please?

[Matty M]

ECM Ensembles

Control follows OPerational almost identical

However around 10/50 runs do show something more positive which is probably more than the 0z said!

But not looking too rosey at all.

Uncertainty HIGH though.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Would it be possible to set up a thread which is solely used by the moderators, Holmesy, Nicholas Sussex, TEITS, Chino, GP, RJS, Kold, Damianslaw, OON (the miserable sod), SP1986, Anyweather and the experienced gang, to get an objective slant on what the models are showing please?

We did try an invited model thread last year where only certain people could post, but everyone could view, but it didn't really work out.

I resent being called a miserable old sod by the way.....I'm only 40.

[UV-RAY]

So judging by the downbeat post on here I take it the ECM wasn't so good?

Some people never learn, expect more twist and turns over the coming days. I didn't buy the Easterly, just yet, I still feel cold zonailty will be the form horse before any Easterly or NE ridging takes hold.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Well to be serious for a moment the ECM operational has done a back flip/summersault this evening and completely drops the notion of an Easterly.

The biggest concern remains the model wanting to build a pretty intense low over Greenland which will only serve to intensify the almost relentless jet streaks off the ES.

The profile to the NE continues to look good IMO but until that PV relents its going to be nion impossibole to get cold this far west.

[sebastiaan1973]

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!168!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2009112700!!/

Not looking good.

[john mac]

I think another try would be in order as im getting very confused as to what is happening.

all i want is a clear lay out of what is going on and where we might be heading.

please consider this.

cheers

fromey

Its going to get cooler, other than that we are no closer to finding out the rest ATM

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

What I find a little suprising on here tonight is the fact that before the ECM 12z came out the mood in here was very positive indeed. What perhaps needs remembering is that it was the ECM that was showing the high regressing to Greenland during the Christmas period when the other models had non of this really. I can remember the ECM then dropping the idea after a couple of days. My point is that because the ECM is showing something a little less desirable doesn't necessarily mean it will verify. The fact that the latest met update mentions uncertainty and colder conditions in the east/south east is enough for me at the minute.

[JP1972]

We did try an invited model thread last year where only certain people could post, but everyone could view, but it didn't really work out.

I resent being called a miserable old sod by the way.....I'm only 40.

I'm 40 in October, no doubt I'll be as miserable as you pretty soon

Just a suggestion because it would make learning easier and quicker for dumwits like me!

[Matty M]

http://www.ecmwf.int...t!2009112700!!/

Not looking good.

But ask yourself this, did the ECM Ensembles ever back an easterly incursion? The answer is no,

So i don't think you can conclude much.

The ENS quite is quite similar to this morning

[feb1991blizzard]

IF we are to get a potent cold spell soon the models were always going to chop and change and will continue to do so, im far more concerned about chiono's post in the stratosphere thread regarding EP flux than the 12z ECM op not playing ball, we were never going to get deep cold with blizzards by the 15th of Jan according to the forecast team and the more knowledgeable on here, and from what i understand the models dont perform well when there is uncertainty regarding the strat, a positive is there is now uncertainty from the MO on there 15 dayer let alone their 30 dayer, very rare for them to actually state this, so long term uncertainty in my mind means possible cold and you have to be in it to win it, though i do accept there becomes a tipping point where we will need to see some action.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I'm 40 in October, no doubt I'll be as miserable as you pretty soon

Just a suggestion because it would make learning easier and quicker for dumwits like me!

He seems to base himself on Jack Dee, though is probably 99.9% funnier

[sebastiaan1973]

But ask yourself this, did the ECM Ensembles ever back an easterly incursion? The answer is no,

So i don't think you can conclude much.

The ENS quite is quite similar to this morning

I agree with you Matty. The chance for a easterly is and remains small.

[January Snowstorm]

What happened over the last 36 hours would have left us all shocked a couple of years ago

Luckily most of us are older and wiser and understand that these models are all very fickle

What I do find interesting is how they all got conned y'day more or less at the same time.

Usually when the ECM jumps ship the gfs picks up so here's hoping.

I do think and have done all this Winter that the gfs has been performing better than the ECM

The gfs hasn't done much wrong to be fair and never really backed the full on Easterly.

It's all quite simple really the amount of split jet going South is a tad weaker at 144hrs than initially thought which has a knock on effect of Easterly yeah or no. It would be good to get an update from GP this evening, as his forecast is now coming into view and it's make or break for him. He called a mid jan cold spell, possibly a tad later but things need to change pretty quick.

I'll be routing for him as we all need a break from this mild mush

It was 14C here today when the sun came out, ridiculous!

[JP1972]

Yeah, the GFS has been great since its upgrade

Anyway on to the 18z, I'll be back shortly - not even the models, as intriguing as they are, can keep me from a bath with the missus

Unless you're having a bath with a model, this is seriously off topic.